I love the idea of Storeytime, but find it a bit over simplistic in idea and overly complicated to calculate. I also wanted to apply it to the whole table.
For all future reference, here is the Official Storey Time 2013/14 Thread.
For my version, I used the idea that, anything picked up away against the "top" teams is a 'bonus', and anything lost at home to the "bottom" teams is a loss. Then filled out the rest. The points system then:
Away to a "Top" team - Win 3, Draw 1, Loss 0
Home to a "Top" team - Win 2, Draw 0, Loss 1
Away to a "Middling" team - Win 2, Draw 0, Loss 0
Home to a "Middling" team - Win 1, Draw -1, Loss -2
Away to a "Bottom" team - Win 1, Draw -1, Loss -2
Home to a "Bottom" team - Win 0, Draw -2, Loss -3
So the expected result (par) away to a "top" team would be a loss, which would give you 0 points. Likewise, the expected result (par) at home to a "bottom" team would be a win, which would give you 0 points. Away to a "bottom" team, par is 2 points per game, so a win is worth 1 point, whereas away to a "middling" team, par is 1 point, so a win is worth 2 points. And so on.
The most controversial (hard to get your head around) part of this is the following: Because the top teams have one less top team to beat, they have less points available to them than the bottom teams. This is fine if we are just comparing apples with apples (i.e, just top teams), but I wanted to show the whole table. To get around this, the top teams start with an extra 5 points, the middle teams an extra 3 points, and the bottom teams 1... No wait comeback! This isn't unfair, it just brings us back in line with what will be the final Premier League table. To think of this another way, if every team had to play themselves twice, the Premier League table wouldn't be affected because they would deliberately lose and give themselves 6 points. But with our table, that would give more points to some teams than others - (which actually just evens everything out). Anyway I cant explain it better than that; so..
My selection of "top" teams: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
My selection of "middling" teams: Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Southampton, Stoke City, Swansea City, West Bromwich Albion
My selection of "bottom" teams: Cardiff City, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Hull City, Norwich City, Sunderland, West Ham United
The Table
So United are 4 points behind 4th place, Newcastle are doing rather well, Arsenal still are top, Liverpool now are 4th, Sunderland aren't quite as far behind as it first appears, there is a huge drop off between 15th and 16th.. and hopefully my maths is correct. Even though an away win is worth an extra point per game, the top 5 teams have got more from their home form than their away and only Cardiff and Sunderland have done the same.
Arsenals game tomorrow is against Everton. If Everton win they go into 2nd place in my table! In real life, they could also go into 2nd place but would have to win by 8 goals! If Arsenal lose tomorrow, they fall to 2 points above Chelsea and 1 above Everton! In real life they would stay 4 points above Everton and Chelsea. If Arsenal win, they go 5 points clear in StoreyTime, 7 in real life.
Come on Everton! (Note their goal difference is pretty bad compared with the 4 above. I think in general, low scoring clubs don't tend to stay high flying for too long. But thats nothing to do with StoreyTime).
Document to check and manipulate
Eboue's version from last year is more mathsy, but is harder to calculate. Also, you chop the Premier League table up into however many groups you want, and even do separate home and away seedings if you wanted, but I felt is best to stick to 3 tiers and apply a simple -1 applier to away games.
Lastly; you can get 100-1 odds on Everton to win the league, but if they win tomorrow will be in 2nd place according to my table! Or 6-1 on Everton getting a top-4 finish.
One final thing I forgot to say, once we have the final StoreyTime table, it should be exactly 54 points behind the actual Premier League table. I.e. Par will take you to 54 points, 7th place last year, 8th place the year before, 7th the year before that 9th before that.
For all future reference, here is the Official Storey Time 2013/14 Thread.
For my version, I used the idea that, anything picked up away against the "top" teams is a 'bonus', and anything lost at home to the "bottom" teams is a loss. Then filled out the rest. The points system then:
Away to a "Top" team - Win 3, Draw 1, Loss 0
Home to a "Top" team - Win 2, Draw 0, Loss 1
Away to a "Middling" team - Win 2, Draw 0, Loss 0
Home to a "Middling" team - Win 1, Draw -1, Loss -2
Away to a "Bottom" team - Win 1, Draw -1, Loss -2
Home to a "Bottom" team - Win 0, Draw -2, Loss -3
So the expected result (par) away to a "top" team would be a loss, which would give you 0 points. Likewise, the expected result (par) at home to a "bottom" team would be a win, which would give you 0 points. Away to a "bottom" team, par is 2 points per game, so a win is worth 1 point, whereas away to a "middling" team, par is 1 point, so a win is worth 2 points. And so on.
The most controversial (hard to get your head around) part of this is the following: Because the top teams have one less top team to beat, they have less points available to them than the bottom teams. This is fine if we are just comparing apples with apples (i.e, just top teams), but I wanted to show the whole table. To get around this, the top teams start with an extra 5 points, the middle teams an extra 3 points, and the bottom teams 1... No wait comeback! This isn't unfair, it just brings us back in line with what will be the final Premier League table. To think of this another way, if every team had to play themselves twice, the Premier League table wouldn't be affected because they would deliberately lose and give themselves 6 points. But with our table, that would give more points to some teams than others - (which actually just evens everything out). Anyway I cant explain it better than that; so..
My selection of "top" teams: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
My selection of "middling" teams: Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Southampton, Stoke City, Swansea City, West Bromwich Albion
My selection of "bottom" teams: Cardiff City, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Hull City, Norwich City, Sunderland, West Ham United
The Table
So United are 4 points behind 4th place, Newcastle are doing rather well, Arsenal still are top, Liverpool now are 4th, Sunderland aren't quite as far behind as it first appears, there is a huge drop off between 15th and 16th.. and hopefully my maths is correct. Even though an away win is worth an extra point per game, the top 5 teams have got more from their home form than their away and only Cardiff and Sunderland have done the same.
Arsenals game tomorrow is against Everton. If Everton win they go into 2nd place in my table! In real life, they could also go into 2nd place but would have to win by 8 goals! If Arsenal lose tomorrow, they fall to 2 points above Chelsea and 1 above Everton! In real life they would stay 4 points above Everton and Chelsea. If Arsenal win, they go 5 points clear in StoreyTime, 7 in real life.
Come on Everton! (Note their goal difference is pretty bad compared with the 4 above. I think in general, low scoring clubs don't tend to stay high flying for too long. But thats nothing to do with StoreyTime).
Document to check and manipulate
Eboue's version from last year is more mathsy, but is harder to calculate. Also, you chop the Premier League table up into however many groups you want, and even do separate home and away seedings if you wanted, but I felt is best to stick to 3 tiers and apply a simple -1 applier to away games.
Lastly; you can get 100-1 odds on Everton to win the league, but if they win tomorrow will be in 2nd place according to my table! Or 6-1 on Everton getting a top-4 finish.
One final thing I forgot to say, once we have the final StoreyTime table, it should be exactly 54 points behind the actual Premier League table. I.e. Par will take you to 54 points, 7th place last year, 8th place the year before, 7th the year before that 9th before that.
