Should we be worried about these stats.

[Hammondo]

We are 14th in the league for goals conceded and 11th for goals scored.

Obviously where our goals have been scored and conceded have worked out for us really well because we are 5th with a game in hand on most, but it still makes it really difficult to read.

Where are our strengths?

 

[Massive Spanner]

Conceded is massively skewed by the Brentford and City games. Take them out and we've conceded 5 in 7 which is near the top. I think both were largely freak results that shouldn't happen again this season, but who knows with this team.

Goals will be a massive problem right until we sign a competent CF, no doubt, and probably the difference between us getting top four and not.

 

[Borys]

We're defending quite well, I don't feel like we're close to conceding with every opponent attack. This number of lost goals is a bit skewed obviously, but recently we're OK.

Attacking wise we're poor and probably big changes would be required to fix that, and I hope ETH goes this way. Even if that means experimenting with formations, it's the time to do it. Seems like we're getting nowhere with current system.

 

[ayushreddevil9]

If the thrashings like Brentford and City are a regular occurrence then yeah.

There are no goals in this team. Martial is always injured, Rashford is not prolific and CR7 is done.

 

[Hammondo]

Conceded is massively skewed by the Brentford and City games. Take them out and we've conceded 5 in 7 which is near the top. I think both were largely freak results that shouldn't happen again this season, but who knows with this team.

Goals will be a massive problem right until we sign a competent CF, no doubt, and probably the difference between us getting top four and not.

Very true, our defense at times has been really stable, though I feel if certain players get injured, that falls apart. I really relies on 3 of the 4 defenders being healthy.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

Conceded is massively skewed by the Brentford and City games. Take them out and we've conceded 5 in 7 which is near the top. I think both were largely freak results that shouldn't happen again this season, but who knows with this team.

Goals will be a massive problem right until we sign a competent CF, no doubt, and probably the difference between us getting top four and not.

This pretty much.

Looking at stats this early anyways isn't useful anyways as you said. Small sample size.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

We're defending quite well, I don't feel like we're close to conceding with every opponent attack. This number of lost goals is a bit skewed obviously, but recently we're OK.

Attacking wise we're poor and probably big changes would be required to fix that, and I hope ETH goes this way. Even if that means experimenting with formations, it's the time to do it. Seems like we're getting nowhere with current system.

It's not the system though. We have one competent striker that hasn't been healthy all season.

 

[Leftback99]

Defensively I think we'll be OK but goals are going to be a huge problem. We neither create much or have a reliable goalscorer.

 

[bosnian_red]

Goals conceded is flukey due to the 2 games. Not an issue given I think we're quite good defensively.

Going forward, we'll in 9 games we've played against City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Brighton and Newcastle... The 2 best teams over the past 5 years, a potential title challenger this year, and then the 2 "best of the rest" teams in the league this year. A lot of our stats are heavily influenced by what has been a really tough start to the season, which after next weekend should lighten up.

At the same time though, it's a process. Started badly. Improved massively. But will have some meh games sprayed in inevitably. It takes time to get all the movements right, attacking patterns, and to add, our main (and only real) striker has been out all year basically. Will be different if he can stay fit.

 

[Lentwood]

No. We have conceded 10 of those goals in two games. I'd only be concerned if we were still running at those sorts of numbers over a much larger sample size.

Also, with respect goals scored...and I hate to keep hammering Ronaldo....but we really are playing without a centre forward at times. When Ronaldo plays, we really might as well be playing with 10-men at times.

Rashford has stepped-up a done a fair job but is only really effective at CF against teams who'll leave space for him to run in-behind. He's never been one for leading a line, holding the ball up, playing with his back to goal and/or nicking poachers goals.

I like Anthony, looks a real street-fighter. Direct, tricky, has goals in his locker...I am sure he'll be a good addition. Sancho has work to do but I saw a definite improvement with regards his intensity and work-rate vs Newcastle. It's just about repeating the message on the training pitch and hammering it into the players so that they don't have to keep being reminded.

Once Martial comes back, it would be great to see how we get on with him getting a run of games as a #9. I am not going to be suckered into believing he's any sort of long-term answer but I certainly think we'll improve for having a genuinely good, strong, pacey player as a focal point for our attacks

 

[RuudTom83]

Stats are great and utterly useless at the same time.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Sign Toney in January and the stats will look a lot better.

 

[Carl]

I'd be more concerned if we weren't at least creating the chances.

 

[romufc]

Stats are great and utterly useless at the same time.

Not really because most of the time the teams that concede the least and score the most win the titles.

 

[Desert Eagle]

We definitely need to score a lot more.

 

[Rozay]

We create hardly any good chances and waste the ones we do. It is a concern, but both of those will immediately improve if we can get Martial on the pitch with regularity. We're already 2 points down and counting directly due to poor finishing. Final third cutting edge makes all the difference at the top end of the game.

 

[Irwin99]

The goals conceded is probably not reflective of our overall defensive strength because of the City and Brentford games. I watched the highlights of the Newcastle game and other than hitting the post twice in quick succession it didn't look like they were all that threatening.

The negative goal difference and the goals scored is a bit worrying. People seem to be pinning their hopes on Martial returning and staying in great form and while he's looked fantastic when he has played this season he's nearly always been a very patchy player. Even a fully fit and firing Martial has only managed 20 goals in one season in his entire career.

 

[TMDaines]

People are really advocating ignoring the times we have conceded four and six goals this season to not skew the sample, as if we didn't concede four, five, four, four, four and four again last season.

We have conceded 15 in the league so far this season in the league from 12.2 expected, so our defence is still pretty meh, as that is 1.36 per match.

 

[Skills]

People are really advocating ignoring the times we have conceded four and six goals this season to not skew the sample, as if we didn't concede four, five, four, four, four and four again last season.

We have conceded 15 in the league so far this season in the league from 12.2 expected, so our defence is still pretty meh, as that is 1.36 per match.

This.

The Liverpool and Arsenal games could've been an annihilation as well, if we hadn't got the first goals in them.

 

[romufc]

People are really advocating ignoring the times we have conceded four and six goals this season to not skew the sample, as if we didn't concede four, five, four, four, four and four again last season.

We have conceded 15 in the league so far this season in the league from 12.2 expected, so our defence is still pretty meh, as that is 1.36 per match.

Exactly. Look at our defensive line in comparison with others in the league. We have one of the deepest defensive line then people wonder why we don't score enough goals.

Teams like Wolves, West Ham, are what we are competing with, not the top teams, this is shown by every start this season.

 

[horsechoker]

Brentford game is an outlier like when we got thrashed 6-1 against Spurs.

City was probably bound to happen.

I'd say defensively we've been ok when Varane and Martinez played. Our goal scoring is the bigger concern

 

[Samid]

If you ignore the games we’ve conceded more than 1 in we’re actually only conceding 0,5 per game.

Ignore the games we’ve scored less than 2 in we’re actually averaging 2,5 goals per game.

Both are title winning numbers.

 

[Ish]

The club/manager clearly identified this as a big need/gap in the summer but due to a combination of things (striker availability, budget, Ronaldo not leaving etc.) it didn't materialise.

Defensively we've improved massively, so I have less concern around our defence.

 

[TMDaines]

If you ignore the games we’ve conceded more than 1 in we’re actually only conceding 0,5 per game.

Ignore the games we’ve scored less than 2 in we’re actually averaging 2,5 goals per game.

Both are title winning numbers.

Just wait until people realise we're actually conceding more goals per league match this season than we did last. The data as of yet simply isn't there to support much of the obvious improvements people keep talking about.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Defensively we've improved massively, so I have less concern around our defence.

Last season our xGA was 54.5 and our xG was 54.8. If you project our current stats over a full season then our xGA would be 53.2 and our xG would be 50.66. A very small improvement in defence and a drop off in attack that overall means that we're worse so far this season than last by these metrics.

 

[Ish]

Last season our xGA was 54.5 and our xG was 54.8. If you project our current stats over a full season then our xGA would be 53.2 and our xG would be 50.66. A very small improvement in defence and a drop off in attack that overall means that we're worse so far this season than last by these metrics.

I'm not 100% as clued up on all this XG but i assume the City and Brentford scores would impact XGA this season?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I'm not 100% as clued up on all this XG but i assume the City and Brentford scores would impact XGA this season?

Of course but you can't simply erase games where you were terrible.

 

[DWelbz19]

We create hardly any good chances and waste the ones we do. It is a concern, but both of those will immediately improve if we can get Martial on the pitch with regularity. We're already 2 points down and counting directly due to poor finishing. Final third cutting edge makes all the difference at the top end of the game.

I agree with the bold. I actually think the reason a lot of people are so bogged down on our inability to convert chances is predominantly because we struggle to actually consistently create additional chances, so the ones we do miss stay in the mind.

The best finishers in world football tend to have conversion rates in the sort of 18-23% mark. They aren't scoring from every small morsel of a chance they get.

 

[Ish]

Of course but you can't simply erase games where you were terrible.

Yeah I get that but a little bit of context always helps. Guess we'll see how they pan out over the course of the season.

 

[lex talionis]

There are a lot of things to worry about right now, but the immediate focus must be on improving goal production. We've scored one goal over the last two matches against fairly mediocre sides -- one in sixth place in the Cyprus League and the other in sixth place in the Premier League. These are teams we need to be hammering, not scrambling for a stoppage time goal against.

I'm not worried about defensive shape, although there's always room for improvement in our defensive play even after two clean sheets against those middling clubs. I'm not even overly concerned about our chance creation. What must be the immediate focus in chance conversion by our forwards. Our defenders and midfielders are doing their job, though I'm concerned about Bruno's increasingly chaotic play match after match, but it's our forwards who aren't getting it done on goal.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Yeah I get that but a little bit of context always helps. Guess we'll see how they pan out over the course of the season.

We can improve of course. We're still in a decent position in the league but that stats so far haven't been good by any metric. We're basically mid-table by nearly all metrics and our league position is a little flattering.

 

[OL29]

Of course but you can't simply erase games where you were terrible.

But you can’t ignore the context either, Brentford was only ETH’s second game and in the City match we collapsed in a manner i don’t expect to see again this season. Watching most of our matches this season it’s obvious that we’re more secure than last year.

 

[Shakesy]

This thread

 

[Ish]

We can improve of course. We're still in a decent position in the league but that stats so far haven't been good by any metric. We're basically mid-table by nearly all metrics and our league position is a little flattering.

Yeha, let's hope with the new manager settling in and the players/squad adapting to his methods and demands things only start improving, otherwise we're in a for a long/hard season ahead (which in fairness we expected some inconsistency this season with the hope of pushing for top 4). Having no competent CF's outside of Martial is also a big concern at the moment.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

But you can’t ignore the context either, Brentford was only ETH’s second game and in the City match we collapsed in a manner i don’t expect to see again this season. Watching most of our matches this season it’s obvious that we’re more secure than last year.

I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised to see us ship a load of goals again. I do agree that we do feel more secure generally and there isn't that same sense of crisis.

 

[Lecland07]

Very little creativity in the team - we have also been defensively orientated.

- McTominay hasn't got a creative bone in his body.
- Fernandes has been terrible - he has provided almost nothing in chance creation
- Sancho & Antony have provided very little outside of their goals - they have shown very little in creating chances
- Ronaldo - nothing really needs to be said

We have too many players who do not create chances.

- Rashford is literally the only player in the forward line who has created this season.
- Casemiro looks like he will add something
- Eriksen also has that ability from CM

- Martial - Has been good when he has played, but he might as well not exist with his injury rate at 1 per game.

I think we are probably going to have to shift Eriksen into the attacking midfield role. There just isn't enough further up the pitch.

 

[Hammondo]

Last season our xGA was 54.5 and our xG was 54.8. If you project our current stats over a full season then our xGA would be 53.2 and our xG would be 50.66. A very small improvement in defence and a drop off in attack that overall means that we're worse so far this season than last by these metrics.

Yea but we have played pretty tough opponents on average so far. Still have some tough ones left though.

 

[Rozay]

Been contemplating making a thread for weeks asking 'does this team have a 5-0 win in them?' Because we do not look like we are able of thrashing anyone. So I wonder, what level does a team need to be for us to realistically do them 4 or 5? Leicester were absolutely on their knees when we played them, and we had all the ball and could only manage a 1-0. We're in the EL not the CL, and have not been able to thrash either Sherriff or Omonoia in 3 attempts. Perhaps when the League Cup or FA Cup starts, we might draw a team from League One or something - but even then, I'm not sure I'd expect anything more than a 2-0 win.

We've probably drawn about 10 saves of note from PL goalkeepers all season. Being able to score a lot of goals is a hallmark of the top sides. Forget the defence for now. Every team above us in the League has won at least one game by 3 or more goals this season. Even when top teams are struggling, like Liverpool, who are behind us - they have still managed to score 9 goals in one match this season, and 7 in one match in the CL. Spurs, who the caf labels as the most boring side ever, scored 6 against Leicester.

This isn't down to individuals not scoring or creating enough by themselves, it is down to us not (yet) as a team having a way of playing that sees us consistently create chances. Every top PL team plays the game in such a way where they can be in a position to expect to score 3+ goals a game. Except us.

 

[mav_9me]

It's the overperformance of xG that's the concern. Not the actual goals scored or conceded.

Also Tottenham in a similar boat, at least a couple of weeks ago, mid table in a lot of attacking stats including xG.

 

[Chesterlestreet]

(This could have been posted in the xG thread):

The stats don't tell us anything we didn't already know. There isn't much hidden there, in terms of non-obvious tendencies.

We're reasonably solid at the back (with the exception of a couple of exceptionally bad games) - and we're obviously not good enough in the finishing department.

For a transitional season (yes, yes - but this is one), we're looking...not super promising but then again not depressingly bad either. It's pretty obvious that we lack something in terms of personnel (for one thing, we lack a feckin' striker who's a) available and b) half decent at the highest level) - but far less obvious (in my opinion, at least) that we lack something in terms of coaching.

It's very hard to see how ETH could have milked much more out of this team.

That's a positive in my book.