Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Well it will be discontent but towards the one who destroyed the pipeline, not their governments.

The Russian trolls will happily say that there is no proof it was Russia. It could be Germany who did it. No? Can you prove that it wasn't Germany? Can you prove it wasn't Ukrainian nazis? Can you prove it wasn't the Klingons?
 
The Russian trolls will happily say that there is no proof it was Russia. It could be Germany who did it. No? Can you prove that it wasn't Germany? Can you prove it wasn't Ukrainian nazis? Can you prove it wasn't the Klingons?
It was Orcs.
 
The Russian trolls will happily say that there is no proof it was Russia. It could be Germany who did it. No? Can you prove that it wasn't Germany? Can you prove it wasn't Ukrainian nazis? Can you prove it wasn't the Klingons?
Some people who have irradiated brains won't believe it even if you find the submarine captain who commanded the mission to wreck it and he admits on live TV. I mean look at the US with those who support Trump. Thankfully they are still a minority.
 
False flag? On one level the people with the most to gain from the pipeline being broken would be Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine would do this, but Russia might and claim it was them. Just an idea, I don't think anyone knows for sure yet.

how many submarines have Ukraine got?
 
Don't think the US has been holding back on intelligence lately.

The US doesn’t generally release stuff like satellite evidence or other sensitive collection methods. When Trump showed off a satellite image of an Iranian rocket detonating on the launchpad, it was a huge deal for the intel community since it showed the quality of the satellite imagery.

Even in the lead up to the war, they didn’t share the good stuff with NATO or Ukraine, and all of that was stuff that could have multiple sources.
 
The US doesn’t generally release stuff like satellite evidence or other sensitive collection methods. When Trump showed off a satellite image of an Iranian rocket detonating on the launchpad, it was a huge deal for the intel community since it showed the quality of the satellite imagery.

Even in the lead up to the war, they didn’t share the good stuff with NATO or Ukraine, and all of that was stuff that could have multiple sources.
Well if its convincing nato countries who did it, they absolutely will share the data but maybe not the sources. Just as they did before the invasion.
 
False flag? On one level the people with the most to gain from the pipeline being broken would be Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine would do this, but Russia might and claim it was them. Just an idea, I don't think anyone knows for sure yet.

Would Ukraine have the means to do it? Highly doubtful. Russia have proven they are able, and willing, to operate in this way. Salisbury for example.
 
How many have Russia got is more the question. Ukraine don't need any for Russia to claim one of their allies assisted them. I thought everyone would understand what a false flag was, should have been clearer sorry.
How many have Russia got that work is the real question.

Very weird scenario because Putin is trying to weaponize the pipeline, sabotaging it does nothing for his hope that Germany beg him to turn on the taps again. I actually think this could have been NATO as a statement to Putin, who is assuming Germany will beg him to restart supply, by damaging the pipeline and effectively stopping it's ability to transport LNG it takes away a massive part of Putin's leverage.
 
How many have Russia got is more the question. Ukraine don't need any for Russia to claim one of their allies assisted them. I thought everyone would understand what a false flag was, should have been clearer sorry.
Ah I see apologies.
I just can’t see a nato country sabotaging the lines.
Unless the ultimate aim is to deliberately escalate things potentially to a nuclear conclusion which doesn’t seem like a stance nato would take.
I’m sure they (we) are all hoping it doesn’t come to that and Russia is defeated with conventional means.
Maybe I’m naive I don’t know but the most logical conclusion is that it was Russia was responsible.
 
Is anyone seriously thinking that if the Norway pipe is destroyed the EU will suddenly cave to every demand from Russia and start paying in rubles or whatever they ask?
Probably not. Though if I were in charge I might be tempted to think that the cost for the EU is too high.
 
Ah I see apologies.
I just can’t see a nato country sabotaging the lines.
Unless the ultimate aim is to deliberately escalate things potentially to a nuclear conclusion which doesn’t seem like a stance nato would take.
I’m sure they (we) are all hoping it doesn’t come to that and Russia is defeated with conventional means.
Maybe I’m naive I don’t know but the most logical conclusion is that it was Russia was responsible.
I think so. If Trump were around I might believe anything but Biden seems quite considered in general, a lot less likely to act incautiously. I hope :)
 
I think so. If Trump were around I might believe anything but Biden seems quite considered in general, a lot less likely to act incautiously. I hope :)
Senior people will know if nato did it or not. The response will be the same in any event - immediate escalation, so I guess we’ll never know the truth.
I know what I think though.
 
It obviously wasn’t the US. Absolutely no need. The gas isn’t flowing through those pipes now anyway and the EU is in a good place ahead of winter and has moved away from Russian gas. This was a warning shot from the Russians - the Norwegian supply gets cut and it’s fecking chaos:

 

Btw reuters are the lowest of the low, I advise you to avoid them as a news source due to strong links with Kremlin.
 
They had to already backtrack and apologize (with public statements) for a lot of misreporting on Ukraine. This happens so regularly this is definitely anything but a coincidence.
Examples?
 
Examples?
Just a handful I was able to find off the back of quick search but the pattern is evident and the angle they’re purposefully pushing.

Putin helping to export grain from Ukraine?

Russian armed forces = Ukrainian rebels?

Kherson separatists?
 
To anyone more knowledgeable than me please.

if the damage to the gas line is deliberate, what does that mean in terms of a possible reaction?

my view is that it’s going to mean explicit conflict between nato and Russia.

please convince me otherwise
 
To anyone more knowledgeable than me please.

if the damage to the gas line is deliberate, what does that mean in terms of a possible reaction?

my view is that it’s going to mean explicit conflict between nato and Russia.

please convince me otherwise

It can't be proved that's russia. Also damaging pipelines might not be enough to trigger article 5, or be considered an attack. If an attack is in NATO waters, then yeah, it's an attack, but if it's in international waters, I'm not sure.
 
To anyone more knowledgeable than me please.

if the damage to the gas line is deliberate, what does that mean in terms of a possible reaction?

my view is that it’s going to mean explicit conflict between nato and Russia.

please convince me otherwise
This one? Nothing at all. It wasn’t functioning anyway (cause Russia weaponized their gas export), and Europe was/is preparing without the Russian gas.

Almost surely it was a message that they might do this to the Norway pipeline. In which case, I assume NATO would escalate too cause that would be a total act of war.
 
It can't be proved that's russia. Also damaging pipelines might not be enough to trigger article 5, or be considered an attack. If an attack is in NATO waters, then yeah, it's an attack, but if it's in international waters, I'm not sure.
If it is deliberate then surely the only possible option is Russia? I’m not buying that a nato country would have done it in order to escalate.
 
To anyone more knowledgeable than me please.

if the damage to the gas line is deliberate, what does that mean in terms of a possible reaction?

my view is that it’s going to mean explicit conflict between nato and Russia.

please convince me otherwise

Russia owns the Nord stream lines I think

Basically they broke their own stuff... (The implication being if we can do that we could take out other lines) but I don't think a NATO Russia conflict will happen over them breaking their own stuff

Russia declaring the Donbas part of Russia tomorrow and presumably then accusing Ukraine of attacking russian territory ... Now that might escalate quickly if they demand Ukrainian withdrawal and start threatening tactical nukes etc
 
I'm glad I impress you but the only time I can remember mentioning Thucydides is when making a playful reach while reviewing Raya and The Last Dragon. It was sort of a joke but I'm glad it made an impression on you.

On your point about comparative suffering: I'm not sure how it relates to anything I've posted, sorry.

On your point about my involvement and knowledge on Russia: As a largely ignorant outsider and having ignored the thread for a while I came back in because I was genuinely interested in the first hand perspectives of the Russian posters on here after the partial-mobilisation news and how this turn of events might affect them and their families directly. Perhaps in the vain hope that it might quicken an end to the carnage in Ukraine. But to try and find these posts I had to wade through the spamming of idiotic war-bro fantasies and caricatures of all Russians, or most Russians, or all Russians except redcafe posters (grovel, grovel) as weak and nazis and *****.

Ok fine, if the thread is happy with the Glaston model of war reportage as twitter length missile strikes set to a soundtrack of death metal (literally this is the stuff he was spamming), and if war-lolz is where it's at then I'll put it back on ignore and leave you to have your fun in peace. Sorry to blow your buzz, see ya.

P.S. The How To Train Your Dragon series was superior to Disney's latest dragon adventures.

My apologies for the rather rude response the other night - I had been having an argument on the same topic with in laws and over- reacted a bit to your rather harmless post. And, joking aside, i’d rather read your never dull postings than some more abuse directed at Harry Maguire.
 
Russia owns the Nord stream lines I think

Basically they broke their own stuff... (The implication being if we can do that we could take out other lines) but I don't think a NATO Russia conflict will happen over them breaking their own stuff

Russia declaring the Donbas part of Russia tomorrow and presumably then accusing Ukraine of attacking russian territory ... Now that might escalate quickly if they demand Ukrainian withdrawal and start threatening tactical nukes etc
Thanks for the reply, from what I understand breaking this line might affect “legit” supplies from the nordics?
 
Thanks for the reply, from what I understand breaking this line might affect “legit” supplies from the nordics?
I don't think so

This happened the day a new Norway Poland line opened up and pretty close to it

And simultaneous explosions probably shows their ability to strike numerous Norwegian pipes at once

But to the best of my knowledge this will not impact any non russian pipelines
 
Thanks for the reply, from what I understand breaking this line might affect “legit” supplies from the nordics?
No it doesn't, those are different pipelines. It's just about the message that those could be destroyed as well.
 
No it doesn't, those are different pipelines. It's just about the message that those could be destroyed as well.
Thank you for the reply.
Makes me feel a bit better about the situation.
If putin is just dipping his toes in the water then hopefully the reaction will prevent him from actually doing it
 
Thank you for the reply.
Makes me feel a bit better about the situation.
If putin is just dipping his toes in the water then hopefully the reaction will prevent him from actually doing it
Yeah if reaction is strong though something along the lines of Norway/USA coming out to say that article 5 will be activated right away should similar thing happen to their pipe.