“Certainly I think there is a calculation in the Kremlin that Russia is more resilient than the West,” said Thomas E. Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who served as senior director for Russia on the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007.
“They do think about these electoral cycles,” Mr. Graham said. “Who knows what is going to happen in 2024 in the United States? It’s not clear where the American people are on this over the long run. I think the Kremlin and Putin do believe that in that sense, time is on their side.”