Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[4bars]

Satellite imagery,... hopefully they can analyze the data in 8-9 months

 

[Simbo]

Question about the coming counter-offensive if anyone could answer. In reading about the war, it seems clear that US intelligence is quite good at anticipating Russian actions. The leaks recently have reinforced this and shown the US has immense amount of information on Russian capabilities, intentions and its reactions to Western aid. Also, during the Kharkov counter-offensive, Russian intelligence seemed to be completely lost and failed to correctly interpret the direction of the true offensive, including troop massing and movements. Again, the US seems to be very good at this - in fact, it would appear at times that independent organizations/think tanks are better equipped than Russia when it comes to troop movement and concentration. Ukraine seems to have a massive advantage in intelligence and counter-intelligence.

So, with the coming counter-offensive, are there any indications that Russia has improved in this regard since the Kharkov offensive? There has been a lot of talk lately about a counter-offensive occurring, but this seems in line with what happened in Kharkov. The idea of a counter-offensive is well known, but its place and time seem to be a mystery.

Whenever it starts I think we can expect a lot of misdirection to spin the Russians in circles, they've had a long time to plan, I'm expecting operation overlord type stuff.

I don't know that we have much to go on in judging whether Russia has smartened up in the last 9 months, we'll have to wait and see. They have however focused heavily on defences since Kharkiv, we've no idea how effective those are, again have to wait and see. Misdirection aside, the success of this offensive is on the engineering effort.

 

[the hea]

I don't understand why everyone is assuming the drone incident is a false flag operation, this is is massive humiliation to the Russian air defences and makes Putin and his armed forces look even weaker infront of the Muscovites. Russia has always considered it's air defences among the best in the world, the fact that someone is able to fly a cheap drone over what should be the best protected place in the country is another huge failure for the armed forces and makes Putin and his generals look even weaker.

 

[calodo2003]

I don't understand why everyone is assuming the drone incident is a false flag operation, this is is massive humiliation to the Russian air defences and makes Putin and his armed forces look even weaker infront of the Muscovites. Russia has always considered it's air defences among the best in the world, the fact that someone is able to fly a cheap drone over what should be the best protected place in the country is another huge failure for the armed forces and makes Putin and his generals look even weaker.

Maybe because Putin has utilized at least one false flag operation before to his potential advancement benefit?

 

[Ragnar123]

Props to Germany, the IRIS-T system is looking really good. I am sure that the manufacturer will receive many orders in the near future

I don't understand why everyone is assuming the drone incident is a false flag operation, this is is massive humiliation to the Russian air defences and makes Putin and his armed forces look even weaker infront of the Muscovites.

Because he benefits far more from the "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative than suffers from some short humiliation because of 2 drones. It's the same play as Crimean bridge again, which "allowed" him to start his missile terror. Let's see what those drone attacks will allow him to do. Also the timing couldn't be better for him to strike Ukraine with a huge terror wave right before their 9th May celebrations to show strength.
I'd even imagine he could go that far and strike Kiev's presidential palace in retaliation. "You attack the Kremlin, so we do the same in Kiev". I don't know if IRIS-T and Patriot systems are capable to intercept Russian Kinzhal missiles. So far, Ukraine couldn't intercept even one of them.
There is of course also the possibility that this attack was carried out by some hardliner group to try to escalate the conflict. But Ukraine doesn't benefit at all. Everyone knows Ukraine has neither the possibilities, nor the western support to attack Russian soil apart from some near border oil depots and other minor skirmishes.

 

[the hea]

Maybe because Putin has utilized at least one false flag operation before to his potential advancement benefit?

Because he benefits far more from the "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative than some short humiliation because of 2 drones. It's the same play as Crimean bridge again, that "allowed" him to start with his missile terror. Let's see what those drone attacks will allow him to do.

Russian missile terror started long before the Kerch bridge explosion, infact by that point Russia had already used up all their Iskander-M missiles and where almost exclusivly relying on cruise missiles which are much easier to intercept for the Ukrainians. If Putin wanted a false flag I think he would perfer to just blow up a bunch of civilians like he did last time instead of making his precious military look weak infront of the home crowd.

 

[B20]

I work in an industry that one of our services has to do with satellite imagery and you can access anytime and with historical records. Imagine what military satellites can get in a matter of ours knowing the area that was sabotaged. And it took them 8-9 months?

And "...they will not say anthing of course until the investigation has concluded" but they are just saying that when is not concluded?

"they" are not saying anything. these are the findings of Danish media.

 

[Ragnar123]

Russian missile terror started long before the Kerch bridge explosion

Their missile terror started when Russia appointed Surovikin as the new commander, which was on the same day the Crimean bridge exploded.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ts-notorious-general-sergei-surovikin-ukraine

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/12/missile-war-for-the-russian-throne-begins

I don't deny, that Russia used missiles since the start of the war. But Surovikin ordered those specific missiles waves aimed at Ukraine's civilian and energy infrastructure right before and during the winter. Those terror waves were the official and direct answer to the Kerch bridge explosion. Even Putin acknowledged it on TV.

 

[Rajma]

 

[the hea]

[

I remember that their missile terror started when Russia appointed Surovikin as the new commander, which was on the same day the Crimean bridge exploded.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ts-notorious-general-sergei-surovikin-ukraine

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/12/missile-war-for-the-russian-throne-begins

I don't deny, that Russia used missiles since the start of the war. But Surovikin ordered those specific missiles waves aimed at Ukraines civilian and energy infrastructure right before and during the winter. Those terror waves were the official and direct answer to the Kerch bridge explosion. Even Putin acknowledged it on TV.

Whatever Putin and Surovkin said doesn't matter since all they do is lie. The facts are that Russia has been bombing civilian targets as a tactic since the start of their SMO. The Kerch bridge explosion was used as an excuse but they only continued to do the same thing they had been doing since February 25th. If the bridge attack never happened I can promise you that they would still have bombed Ukrainian cities through out the winter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kramatorsk_railway_station_attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol_theatre_airstrike
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol_hospital_airstrike
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chasiv_Yar_missile_strike
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilohorivka_school_bombing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kremenchuk_shopping_mall_attack

 

[VorZakone]

I recall reading that coordinating a missile attack like the one directly after the Kerch bridge explosion took an amount of days. Therefore, it likely wasn't a "response" to the Kerch bridge explosion.

Contrary to the claims made by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, the recent massive Russian barrage of missile and air strikes across Ukraine was planned before the Kerch Bridge explosion, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told CNN on Oct. 11.
“It likely was something that they had been planning for quite some time,” said Kirby.

“Now that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea Bridge might have accelerated some of their planning.”

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia...imea-bridge-bombing-ukraine-war-50275985.html

 

[Ragnar123]

The Kerch bridge explosion was used as an excuse

Yes, that's my whole point. They used it as an excuse to intensify civilian terror. The terror, they've planned weeks and months beforehand probably and they needed a trigger. How convincingly, that Ukraine gave them that excuse, right? And it's again the same play with those drone attacks on the Kremlin. Your examples are not comparable with the hundreds of missiles per wave Surovikin ordered. That was clearly a new escalation in this war.

I recall reading that coordinating a missile attack like the one directly after the Kerch bridge explosion took an amount of days. Therefore, it likely wasn't a "response" to the Kerch bridge explosion.


https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia...imea-bridge-bombing-ukraine-war-50275985.html

Of course it was planned before. That only supports the Kerch bridge was a false flag narrative to have an excuse for a new escalation they've planned weeks beforehand.

 

[the hea]

Yes, that's my whole point. They used it as an excuse to intensify civilian terror. The terror, they've planned weeks and months beforehand probably. And it's again the same play with those drone attacks on the Kremlin.



Of course it was planned before. That only supports the Kerch bridge was a false flag narrative.

You believe Russia blew up one of it's most important logistics routes as a false flag?

 

[Ragnar123]

You believe Russia blew up one of it's most important logistics routes as a false flag?

If I take everything into account, then yes.

• Only one driving lane of the bridge was destroyed, the other one was still usable. The bridge was repaired fairly quickly.
• Putin appointed Surovikin, the butcher of Syria, on the same day to bring Ukraine with civilian terror to its knees after they started to retake regions (in the same way Surovikin performed in Syria, bombing civilians).
• Putin needed an excuse for the new escalation level he was planning, because Russia was losing ground.
• The appointment of a new commander + programming hundred of missiles takes weeks in preparation and planning. Having this answer ready just days after the bridge explosion shows Putin was prepared.
• Russia scans every truck passing the bridge for exactly that reason, as well as controls the black sea. How could have Ukraine put that huge bomb on or under that bridge? For a truck bomb, they needed to go through the scans, for a naval attack, they needed to go around Crimea unnoticed. Thats a pretty long way in Russian controled territory to go unnoticed, wouldn't you say?
• Ukraine gained absolutely nothing out of it but a short joy maybe, but suffred hundreds of missiles in retaliation and after that incident, that bridge was never touched again. So who benefited more in the end?

Everyone can make up his own mind, if that is enough to believe it was a false flag operation or not.

 

[harms]

Because he benefits far more from the "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative than suffers from some short humiliation because of 2 drones. It's the same play as Crimean bridge again, which "allowed" him to start his missile terror.

So the Crimean bridge was a false flag then?

I wouldn't confuse cause with the lies that the propaganda creates after the fact. The missile terror started way before the Crimean bridge attack but it "allowed" the Russian propaganda to push the response angle that some people, including yourself, have picked up. Russia and Putin doesn't need excuses to initiate attacks, they create them after the fact, usually quite poorly.

 

[stefan92]

Everyone knows Ukraine has neither the possibilities, nor the western support to attack Russian soil apart from some near border oil depots and other minor skirmishes.

That's simply wrong. Ukraine definitely attacked the Engels air base, which is a similar distance as Moscow. So we know they can do it.

And of course they have western political support for doing that, although I acknowledge that it looks like NATO does not want Ukraine to use heavy NATO weaponry for this kind of attack, probably to prevent and escalation of the war.

 

[4bars]

"they" are not saying anything. these are the findings of Danish media.

Same media that was saying something completely different woth proofs abd receipts of rental of boats with scuba gear.

 

[Simbo]

I don't understand why everyone is assuming the drone incident is a false flag operation, this is is massive humiliation to the Russian air defences and makes Putin and his armed forces look even weaker infront of the Muscovites. Russia has always considered it's air defences among the best in the world, the fact that someone is able to fly a cheap drone over what should be the best protected place in the country is another huge failure for the armed forces and makes Putin and his generals look even weaker.

cos... it pretty obviously is.

On the narrative it creates: The biggest threat to Putin is, and always has been, the Russian people. Stuff like this gives them an enemy that all Dictators need to survive. The reputation of Russian air defences is probably a bit lower down on his priorities.

 

[the hea]

If I take everything into account, then yes.

• Only one driving lane of the bridge was destroyed, the other one was still usable. The bridge was repaired fairly quickly.
• Putin appointed Surovikin, the butcher of Syria, on the same day to bring Ukraine with civilian terror to its knees after they started to retake regions (in the same way Surovikin performed in Syria, bombing civilians).
• Putin needed an excuse for the new escalation level he was planning, because Russia was losing ground.
• The appointment of a new commander + programming hundred of missiles takes weeks in preparation and planning. Having this answer ready just days after the bridge explosion shows Putin was prepared.
• Russia scans every truck passing the bridge for exactly that reason, as well as controls the black sea. How could have Ukraine put that huge bomb on or under that bridge? For a truck bomb, they needed to go through the scans, for a naval attack, they needed to go around Crimea unnoticed. Thats a pretty long way in Russian controled territory to go unnoticed, wouldn't you say?
• Ukraine gained absolutely nothing out of it but a short joy maybe, but suffred hundreds of missiles in retaliation and after that incident, that bridge was never touched again. So who benefited more in the end?

Everyone can make up his own mind, if that is enough to believe it was a false flag operation or not.

This is just wrong. The Kerch bridge railway was one of the most important logistics routes for Russia and it's not expected to be fixed until July, the road section is of minor importance militarily speaking as Russia almost exclusively rely on railways for their logistics. I would even say that this logistics interuption was the main reason they pulled back from the west side of the Dnepr one month later.

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...n-of-rail-bridge-as-repairs-begin-07-03-2023/

And on the question about how they where able to get the truck past the controls. Probably the same way you get anything done in Russia, Corruption.

 

[Simbo]

Its also never been confirmed it was a truck bomb, even the osint crowd gave up on figuring it out. Same with Saki airbase.

Only one semi-confirmed was engels air base. Probably hit with those ancient soviet drones, converted to cruise missiles.

 

[the hea]

cos... it pretty obviously is.

On the narrative it creates: The biggest threat to Putin is, and always has been, the Russian people. Stuff like this gives them an enemy that all Dictators need to survive. The reputation of Russian air defences is probably a bit lower down on his priorities.

I agree that the biggest danger to Putin is the Russian people but I don't see how this makes them rally behind him. Putins power comes from the idea that he is the only one who can protect the Russian people from the evil west, this has been the idea that he has been pushing with his propaganda for a long time now. I don't see how someone attacking the heart of the country with some cheap drones convinces the Russian people that this is the man that can protect them.

 

[Ragnar123]

That's simply wrong. Ukraine definitely attacked the Engels air base, which is a similar distance as Moscow. So we know they can do it.

With shells and drones, yes. We're talking here about carrying a bomb either by truck or by boat. Both extremly unlikely given the tight security on land and the geographical location with an approach by water, as I mentioned Russia expected an attack on that bridge since its opening.

The missile terror started way before the Crimean bridge attack but it "allowed" the Russian propaganda to push the response angle that some people, including yourself, have picked up. Russia and Putin doesn't need excuses to initiate attacks, they create them after the fact, usually quite poorly.

They needed an excuse at home for their own people watching the new level of civilian terror for sure.
As I said already, those seperate attacks prior were not comparable with Surovikin's systematic terror waves. That's the whole reason he was appointed in the first place. What other reason than "Ukrainian terror" could Putin have used to justify these missiles waves? Nah, for me the timing of the bridge attack, Surovikin's appointment and missile waves was definetly not coincidental.

But we go in circles here and will probably never know the truth, so everyone can of course believe whatever they want. Lets end this topic here, at least from my side.

 

[the hea]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

More HIMARS ammo.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[The Firestarter]

If this is indeed no flase flag (I don't think it is) then this will probably make Putin go full hitler in his bunker. An explosive was delivered right above his day office. Imagine it was some unconventional type of explosive (they can get rather small and carried by some drones) . It's unreal they can't protect their fecking presidential palace. Was there actually AA activity before the first explosion, I haven't watched all the videos.

 

[Raoul]

I don't understand why everyone is assuming the drone incident is a false flag operation, this is is massive humiliation to the Russian air defences and makes Putin and his armed forces look even weaker infront of the Muscovites. Russia has always considered it's air defences among the best in the world, the fact that someone is able to fly a cheap drone over what should be the best protected place in the country is another huge failure for the armed forces and makes Putin and his generals look even weaker.

Probably because it’s a historical part of Putin’s playbook.

 

[The Firestarter]

Probably because it’s a historical part of Putin’s playbook.

His playbook is to kill (his own) people though.

 

[Raoul]

If this is indeed no flase flag (I don't think it is) then this will probably make Putin go full hitler in his bunker. An explosive was delivered right above his day office. Imagine it was some unconventional type of explosive (they can get rather small and carried by some drones) . It's unreal they can't protect their fecking presidential palace. Was there actually AA activity before the first explosion, I haven't watched all the videos.

They are incredibly inept in terms of their military campaign so it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn they were comparably inept in protecting Moscow. They haven’t after all had to deal with being attacked there before.

 

[Raoul]

His playbook is to kill (his own) people though.

I suppose if he could damage parts of Moscow it could be used as a domestic pretext to use more deadly weapons in Ukrainian cities. Far too early to tell though.

 

[Raoul]

They couldn’t hold it so now they are destroying it from afar. A sad state of affairs.

 

[Dans]

If this is indeed no flase flag (I don't think it is) then this will probably make Putin go full hitler in his bunker. An explosive was delivered right above his day office. Imagine it was some unconventional type of explosive (they can get rather small and carried by some drones) . It's unreal they can't protect their fecking presidential palace. Was there actually AA activity before the first explosion, I haven't watched all the videos.

But what were those people climbing the dome doing at 230am seconds before the drone exploded above it with (posing quite clearly minimal threat to anyone at all let alone Putin who was unlikely anywhere near the place)??

Coincidence? Hard to believe.

 

[The Firestarter]

But what were those people climbing the dome doing at 230am seconds before the drone exploded above it with (posing quite clearly minimal threat to anyone at all let alone Putin who was unlikely anywhere near the place)??

Coincidence? Hard to believe.

In one of the twitter threads shared here, it was said that it happened between the two explosions , so they were climbing to inspect the explosion from the first drone. It wouldn't make sense to be people there if false flag was getting staged. They'd just blow a drone in the air.

 

[Raoul]

 

[DouLou]

I agree that the biggest danger to Putin is the Russian people but I don't see how this makes them rally behind him. Putins power comes from the idea that he is the only one who can protect the Russian people from the evil west, this has been the idea that he has been pushing with his propaganda for a long time now. I don't see how someone attacking the heart of the country with some cheap drones convinces the Russian people that this is the man that can protect them.

Putin can do whatever he wants in Russia and this is exactly the sort of thing he can do and absolutely noone is going to question it.

All the people with a functioning brain have been against him from the start. As for everyone else do you really think they'll look at this and think Putin is weak? They are the same idiots who chose Putin over their own humanity. There won't be any grumbling over this one...

 

[B20]

Same media that was saying something completely different woth proofs abd receipts of rental of boats with scuba gear.

I have no recollection of that story. Share a link and I can tell you if it's the same media. This was reported by DR who have been running a series of investigate articles on Russian maritime activities in Danish waters lately.

Honestly sounds a bit like you are having a moment where "media" is a collective unit, and in collusion with "them" though.

 

[4bars]

I have no recollection of that story. Share a link and I can tell you if it's the same media. This was reported by DR who have been running a series of investigate articles on Russian maritime activities in Danish waters lately.

Honestly sounds a bit like you are having a moment where "media" is a collective unit, and in collusion with "them" though.

When I "same media", I say media in general not a particular denmark newspaper. but here are some links

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

(Danish media) https://www.thelocal.dk/20230308/nord-stream-sabotage-linked-to-ukrainian-owned-yacht

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ched-boat-nord-stream-saboteurs-may-have-used

(I believe the same danish newspaper than last news): https://www.information.dk/udland/2...rene-foerer-ukraine-historien-langtfra-lukket

Again, US, Rusia and europe knew who did it and we will never know