Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Danish media have reported on the nordstream attacks. Turns out the area had been crawling with Russian military ships in the weeks and months prior to the bombing, all operating as "ghost ships" of course. And several, including at least one with u boat capacity, where within hundreds of meters from the site, just one day prior to the explosion.

Shocking news, I know.
 
As for Bakhmut, I see similarities with Vukovar battle in Croatian Homeland war. Of course on a much smaller scale but esentially greatly outnumbered defenders of Vukovar held the JNA (Jugoslav peoples army), apparently 3rd stronest in Europe at the time and Serbian paramilitary for 2 months, time enough for the Croatian army to equip and prepare (although war waged in lots of other parts of the country) and to exhaust the Serbian army enough so they wouldn't go any further west towards Zagreb.

Battle of Vukovar - Wikipedia
 
B20 said:
Danish media have reported on the nordstream attacks. Turns out the area had been crawling with Russian military ships in the weeks and months prior to the bombing, all operating as "ghost ships" of course. And several, including at least one with u boat capacity, where within hundreds of meters from the site, just one day prior to the explosion.

Shocking news, I know.
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Russia is the most logical explanation IMO. but is funny the "shocking news" sentence like this or Raoul. Before it was clear that it was non gubernamental Ukranians or polish. Now they know that there was ghost military ships. How they know now and not 8-9 months ago?

Nothing that they are telling us true being the culprit russia or not. I find stupid the ukranian / polish story and I find the ghost military ships (in plural, like many) 8-9 months later. I am sure they know the truth since day one and they will never tell us
 
4bars said:
Russia is the most logical explanation IMO. but is funny the "shocking news" sentence like this or Raoul. Before it was clear that it was non gubernamental Ukranians or polish. Now they know that there was ghost military ships. How they know now and not 8-9 months ago?

Nothing that they are telling us true being the culprit russia or not. I find stupid the ukranian / polish story and I find the ghost military ships (in plural, like many) 8-9 months later. I am sure they know the truth since day one and they will never tell us
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satellite imagery and intercepted radio communications is how they know. I am sure the investigate department has known for a while. They will not say anything of course until the investigation has concluded.
 
Ukraine hit Russian oil depots more frequently in the last couple of days. It really looks like the first stage of their counter attack. Weaken their logistics. The 2 sabotage acts on Russian railways also fit in that narrative. Russians also report attacks on a military airfield in Bryansk. I expect more to come in the next days and weeks.

 
B20 said:
Danish media have reported on the nordstream attacks. Turns out the area had been crawling with Russian military ships in the weeks and months prior to the bombing, all operating as "ghost ships" of course. And several, including at least one with u boat capacity, where within hundreds of meters from the site, just one day prior to the explosion.

Shocking news, I know.
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Wait a second…

So Europe wasn’t trying to create domestic instability by reducing the supply of gas, which could have created anti-Ukraine sentiment and boosted the popularity of populists who undermine democratic institutions?

Well colour me shocked.
 
NS1 was blown up shortly after Germany announced they will stop the NS2 project because of the invasion. It's crystal clear, that Putin thought Germany depended so much on his gas, that he could drive a wedge between them and the rest of Europe by forcing them to open NS2. How is that not obvious?
NS2 was always criticized by the western world, so Putin thought he can force the project. In reverse, that's also the best reason why not US, Poland or Ukraine did it themselves. Because they would have risked exactly that scenario, that Germany opens NS2 and weakens the alliance. If they would have done it, then they would have blown up both streams. But only one was blown up, so the other had to be opened (by Russian logic).
 
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dove said:
Yea, as I said a week or so ago, I think Russia were preparing for this kind of false flag attack to justify further mobilisation. Looks like it is the case.
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Yeah, they need more reasons for further mobilisation and probably a new terror wave against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Again, the only one who benefits from this kind of acts is Putin. If I were a russian citizen, I'd also avoid those 9th May parades. It'd be a perfect opportunity to agigate the people with a false flag.

"Ukraine attacks our peaceful celebrations of the great war our grandfathers died for. Here is your proof that they are Nazis!"

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How conveniently that someone filmed in the middle of the night the perfect angle of that attack, that only harmed the flag :lol::lol:
 
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Ragnar123 said:
Yeah, they need more reasons for further mobilisation and probably a new terror wave against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Again, the only one who benefits from this kind of acts is Putin. If I were a russian citizen, I'd also avoid those 9th May parades. It'd be a perfect opportunity to agigate the people with a false flag.

"Ukraine attacks our peaceful celebrations of the great war our grandfathers died for. Here is your proof that they are Nazis!"

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How conveniently that someone filmed in the middle of the night the perfect angle of that attack, that only harmed the flag :lol::lol:
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I actually find the filming bit legit since there are likely cameras all over the place in Moscow. Heck, they even filmed the Nemsov murder 8 years ago.
 
Raoul said:
I actually find the filming bit legit since there are likely cameras all over the place in Moscow. Heck, they even filmed the Nemsov murder 8 years ago.
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I know that there are many cameras, that's why I wrote about the perfect angle. Look at this video, what kind of camera would film exactly like that? You don't see the street, only a bit of the stands and otherwise just the wall and roof where the attack happened. Also as soon as the drone appeared, the camera moved a bit to the left for a better picture. So either it's some sophisticated radar camera or a person filmed this in the middle of the night.
 
Here we have a couple of Ukrainian nazis climbing the rooftops just before the explosion.

 
FireballXL5 said:
Did the Ukrainians have solid intel that Vlad was going to be on the Kremlin roof?
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If something like this were actually true it would be more because the Ukrainians wanted to send a psychological message that they have the ability to strike at the heart of Russian territory.
 
Ukraine already denied their involvement in the night attacks on the Kremlin and fear it's only a pretext for a large terror attack on Ukraine. I fear that too, it would be by the Kremlin's playbook right before their counteroffensive to harm their morale. If the soldiers fear for their families at home, they can't really focus on what lies ahead. The Crimean bridge "attack" repeats itself.
 
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According to Prigozhin, the counteroffensive has already begun.
 
Raoul said:
How long before baldie walks the plank for disappointing Vlad ?
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I think he will be one of the last to walk the plank to be honest, because since last summer, his Wagners are more or less the only ones who advance. Of course Putin will throw him and Wagners under the bus once the war ends, but as long as he needs those human wave tactics, Prigozhin is safe I assume.
 
Ragnar123 said:
I think he will be one of the last to walk the plank to be honest, because since last summer, his Wagners are more or less the only ones who advance. Of course Putin will throw him and Wagners under the bus once the war ends, but as long as he needs those human wave tactics, Prigozhin is safe I assume.
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That makes sense, although they don't have an unlimited number of convicts willing to die in the meatgrinder, so I assume Prigozhin's demise may come sooner rather than later.
 
Ragnar123 said:
I know that there are many cameras, that's why I wrote about the perfect angle. Look at this video, what kind of camera would film exactly like that? You don't see the street, only a bit of the stands and otherwise just the wall and roof where the attack happened. Also as soon as the drone appeared, the camera moved a bit to the left for a better picture. So either it's some sophisticated radar camera or a person filmed this in the middle of the night.
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It's a cropped shot that someone is taking from a screen of a recording, so the angle itself isn't dubious at all. There are millions of different cameras near the Red Square. The rest doesn't make sense, but the camera angle isn't the biggest argument for the false flag operation.
 
Question about the coming counter-offensive if anyone could answer. In reading about the war, it seems clear that US intelligence is quite good at anticipating Russian actions. The leaks recently have reinforced this and shown the US has immense amount of information on Russian capabilities, intentions and its reactions to Western aid. Also, during the Kharkov counter-offensive, Russian intelligence seemed to be completely lost and failed to correctly interpret the direction of the true offensive, including troop massing and movements. Again, the US seems to be very good at this - in fact, it would appear at times that independent organizations/think tanks are better equipped than Russia when it comes to troop movement and concentration. Ukraine seems to have a massive advantage in intelligence and counter-intelligence.

So, with the coming counter-offensive, are there any indications that Russia has improved in this regard since the Kharkov offensive? There has been a lot of talk lately about a counter-offensive occurring, but this seems in line with what happened in Kharkov. The idea of a counter-offensive is well known, but its place and time seem to be a mystery.
 
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Wittmann45 said:
Question about the coming counter-offensive if anyone could answer. In reading about the war, it seems clear that US intelligence is quite good at anticipating Russian actions. The leaks recently have reinforced this and shown the US has immense amount of information on Russian capabilities, intentions and its reactions to Western aid. Also, during the Kharkov counter-offensive, Russian intelligence seemed to be completely lost and failed to correctly interpret the direction of the true offensive, including troop massing and movements. Again, the US seems to be very good at this - in fact, it would appear at times that independent organizations/think tanks are better equipped than Russia when it comes to troop movement and concentration. Ukraine seems to have a massive advantage in intelligence and counter-intelligence.

So, with the coming counter-offensive, are there any indications that Russia has improved in this regard since the Kharkov offensive? There has been a lot of talk lately about a counter-offensive occurring, but this seems in line with what happened in Kharkov. The idea of a counter-offensive is well known, but its place and time seem to be a mystery.
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I would guess the Russians have gotten worse as the war has gone on since they are depleted of well trained soldiers and military hardware.
 
B20 said:
satellite imagery and intercepted radio communications is how they know. I am sure the investigate department has known for a while. They will not say anything of course until the investigation has concluded.
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I work in an industry that one of our services has to do with satellite imagery and you can access anytime and with historical records. Imagine what military satellites can get in a matter of ours knowing the area that was sabotaged. And it took them 8-9 months?

And "...they will not say anthing of course until the investigation has concluded" but they are just saying that when is not concluded?

Didn't buy the ukranian/polish theory, don't buy this either because they well know who was and I doubt that we will never know for certain
 
Ragnar123 said:
NS1 was blown up shortly after Germany announced they will stop the NS2 project because of the invasion. It's crystal clear, that Putin thought Germany depended so much on his gas, that he could drive a wedge between them and the rest of Europe by forcing them to open NS2. How is that not obvious?
NS2 was always criticized by the western world, so Putin thought he can force the project. In reverse, that's also the best reason why not US, Poland or Ukraine did it themselves. Because they would have risked exactly that scenario, that Germany opens NS2 and weakens the alliance. If they would have done it, then they would have blown up both streams. But only one was blown up, so the other had to be opened (by Russian logic).
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That is something that you decided that made sense. As far as I know even if 1 pipe is sort of operable, nordstream 2 was the first to be attached partially succesfully blowed up. How you pretend to pressure anything if the attempt was blowing everything up?
 
Other Biden administration officials insist that Ukraine has never been fully open with the United States about its military plans. While Washington and Kyiv are in close touch, they naturally don’t share everything, and so there was never an expectation that Ukraine would call up the White House and say the counteroffensive begins on X day at Y time.

“They’ve been stingy with information from the beginning,” a U.S. official said.
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https://www.politico.com/newsletter...counteroffensive-details-from-allies-00094828
 
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