Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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He is a fanatic and genuinely interested in Russia winning. He isn't corrupt and gocused on personal benefits like most of the Russian government.
Which is also why I am not surprised how accurate a lot of his statements are - he is a fanatic, not an idiot.
Except there are no cities nearby. The closest is the village Chasiv Yar with a population of 13 000, 15 km away. I'm no expert in these matters, but Zelensky's comments was made in the context of "please give us more tanks", and maybe also to motivate his soldiers, but the strategical role of the city is quite transparent and probably not that difficult to judge. In one way you could say that every meter the Russians take, matters, but the importance of Bakhmut is not justified by the losses Russia have had taking it. The other cites at the frontline are just as important.
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are nearby and along a major road that leads out of Bakhmut.
Look at Bakhmut on a map, it is a road hub. Those are always important in warfare.
The only reason I can think of is his influence in the Donbas. You wrote it yourself, he is one of the most influential figures in this region and if Putin arrests him, then he risks trouble in regions where he can't afford it. Girkin knows it too and that's why he enjoys it being the only influential person, who can openly criticize.
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That looks like a gun run level on CoD.
The cross road is east of Bakhmut though, and has been under Russian control some time already. The Russians have to make quite some progression to reach Krematorsk and Sloviansk. I understand this could be a worry when Russia started their winter offensive, but as things stand now, my understanding is that whether Russia finally manage to take all of Bakhmut or not is not that important as Ukraine can still put up defence lines outside the city, and Russia also lack the personal needed to advance much further. Let's hope at least.
They've been inching closer since last summer.
A long but interesting thread for anyone interested in the upcoming counter offensive.
The personal in Donbass has changed more or less entirely since 2014 and Girkin never was a politician with a loyal electorate, so it's unlikely. Different people speculate that he has some high-level patron in the FSB (or somewhere else at the very top), hence why he hasn't been arrested/prosecuted yet. The funniest version of events that may indeed be true is that he doesn't have anyone but everyone there assumes that he does so they stay clear off him, which would be a very Russian thing to happen. And him continuing to get away with it only strengthens their suspicions.
Exactly and it showed that it is a big problem for the UA and all these RA will run out of whatever didn't happen.
Also it's a big problem for RA of course.
What you are probably missing is that the UA decided to defend there and had built up a lot of defense lines. That means it was easier to make it their hill. We have no idea how good other cities behind it with their defense. And why the hell would the UA want to keep letting the RA destroy their cities, one after another, especially the ones located closer to their west.
They had to make a stand at some point and go hell on the RA, especially, if their intention is to get all their lands back. They just can't giving up cities.
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For those who missed it:
Around 200K Russian troops in Ukraine. I thought it'd be more.
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Ben Hodges is very adamant that Crimea is a key factor.
1) the fact that there's a crossroads means there's more than 1 way out of the city to get to Krematorsk and Sloviansk.
2) having to defend 2 roadways to get to those cities means Ukrainian forces will be split up, and as you can see from the image will become more and more stretched as a fallback from Bakhmut happens. That's obviously not optimal, and you'd much rather just deny access to the road hub completely. You can see that the effects of the loss of part of Bakhmut is already becoming apparent in how far up the northern road the Russians have advanced.
3) the Russians wouldn't need to make it all the way to either city. Control of the road hub and the ability to split Ukrainian defenses and push up the road will bring both cities to within Russian artillery range.
Apparently, UAF pushed back Russians in Avdiivka by 1.5km.
Quite a big increase in attempts to destroy supplies/supply lines in recent days. We had drone attacks in Crimea, HIMARS o'clock is a thing again after a winter break, and we have activity in Russian cities close to the border.
Interestingly enough, the same guy who originally reported on Russia having those kits says that the bombs that fell down onto Belgorod were meant to be dropped there — but the glide kit didn't work so instead of gliding towards Kharkiv they fell straight down. Imagine the risk though, sending down bombs above your own city... if his theory is correct, that is.
NATO estimate Russian casualties to be 5 times the number UA have lost in the fight of Bakhmut. This was my main point to start with. The city may fall, but in the long run, I'd still argue the fight for Bakhmut has been to UA's benefit. Ukraine of course do not want to lose any of their cities, but the importance of this city still doesn't match the effort from the Russian side to control it. This is not Odessa or Kherson.
7 seasons of Agents of Shield does that to youDid someone say Hydra?
HAIL HYDRA!!!
Sorry, I really had to.
Agreed. Beyond the massive loss of life, holding off the Russians in Bakhmut for this long has almost taken on a metaphorical significance that may one day be reflected on as having helped to psychologically turn the tide of the entire war.
Yeah, that’s a pretty steady and consistent stream of reports about sabotage in recent days. Something definitely seems afoot.
Your argument was that losing it is irreverent. My argument was that it would be because of the way UA has been defending it while depleting their resources, and my thought has always been that it was the right thing for UA to not lose it easily due to its importance (obviously depending on how many losses UA had, which we won't know for some).
I meant irrelevant (or at least of minor importance) in the current situation. And there seems to be an agreement that it has been a successful strategy from UA to hold on to it, but then more because of the great Russian losses of personal than anything else. The development in the coming days and weeks will be most interesting.
Symbolically, the Ukrainians appear to have come out ahead in all of this since it ended up being the Russians who wound up depleting themselves. It’s also become a bit of a symbol for Wagner, Russia’s alleged best fighters, not being able to control a town, despite throwing all they had at it.
Grim
I missed this one. It seems like they were using Iranian shells for a while. Are there any indications of how they got it? From a cursory search it seems its possible it was purchased indirectly or even that the Americans, at one point, were contemplating sending rounds it had intercepted from Iranian attempts to send the ammunition to Yemen
Still trying to figure out where they got them from. Whether directly from the Iranians or elsewhere.
My assumption is that it's weapons the US and others have interdicted on its way from Iran to Yemen, but that's just an assumption. CENTCOM announced seizures on February 1st and March 1st, but they don't mention artillery specifically.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...tner-forces-in-major-iranian-weapons-seizure/
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...ds-maritime-interdiction-of-iranian-missiles/