Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

spiriticon said:
I don't think being pragmatic about the reality is necessarily a pro Russian sentiment. Russia has placed nearly 300 k pigs, sorry I mean soldiers, in Ukraine.

Just doing some basic calculations, Ukraine will need close to a million guys to shift each and every last pig out by force. I don't think they have those forces. I could be wrong, I know NATO are constantly training new soldiers for them, but it's unlikely. I also know the modern weapons make up for a lot of the shortfall, but it's still quite a bit to do imo.
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The funny thing is that all the leaked documents sort of showed that everyone's estimations were way over their heads. Of course, UA can still surprise us (hopefully) like they did with last summer and fall counterattacks. Back then, when you started talking about some of the stuff that you could find in those documents, such as how the casualty numbers were nothing like what stated online or how UA were not exactly well trained or equipped enough for the fights to regain the Eastern lands, you were accused of listening to the Kremlin.

Some argued that Russians died more due to offensive operations. Well, what do you think the UA will have to do to get all the territories back? The RA has been pulling all the sh*t together (that they could) for now, and all their equipment and manpower shortages came up on the news but did not exactly show up in the field.
 
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While some residents collaborate with the occupiers, most of them “sit in silence, waiting for (Ukrainian) victory,” Anastasia said.

People are too scared to talk to each other, Maryna said, “because they don’t know each other’s real views.”

“Today, they support you, and tomorrow they’ll rat you out,” just for a house or a flat, she said.

Russians use vacated houses and apartments to reward collaborators, said Sasha, another resident who had to flee Russian torture.
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https://kyivindependent.com/theyll-...become-routine-in-russian-occupied-melitopol/
 
The United said:
The funny thing is that all the leaked documents sort of showed that everyone's estimations were way over their heads. Of course, UA can still surprise us (hopefully) like they did with last summer and fall counterattacks. Back then, when you started talking about some of the stuff that you could find in those documents, such as how the casualty numbers were nothing like what stated online or how UA were not exactly well trained or equipped enough for the fights to regain the Eastern lands, you were accused of listening to the Kremlin.

Some argued that Russians died more due to offensive operations. Well, what do you think the UA will have to do to get all the territories back? The RA has been pulling all the sh*t together (that they could) for now, and all their equipment and manpower shortages came up on the news but did not exactly show up in the field.
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I believe Ukraine has done fantastically well so far and I think a good amount of land can be retaken by what they already have now, if they do it right. The minimum for me this counter should be to break through to the Sea of Azov coast somewhere and cut the Russian land bridge into two.

But to liberate 'all' their territories? Wow I think they they are going to need a lot of special equipment. Basically everything NATO has, especially the most modern fighter jets (but who will fly them?) and also the biggest bombs. The problem is that past the 2014 lines, the big cities like Lugansk and Donetsk are pretty much intact. Assuming the Russians don't withdraw, they will have to fight street by street. It will be like Bakhmut, except UA don't have meat or artillery to spare. Also in that area of the Donbas, it will be very hard to cut Russian logistics simply because it's too close to Russia. Maybe it's possible, I don't know. But only Commander Zalushny will know exactly how much firepower the UA has.

Crimea is a lot easier to isolate and choke as it's pretty much an island, but it will take time to do it. Russia has had 9 years now to build defence there and Ukraine has to reach the Azov coast first.

Just my two cents :)

Edit: But what I'll also say is that I observe the Ukrainians to be incredibly good out of the box thinkers. They don't do things the way you expect them to ;)
 
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spiriticon said:
I believe Ukraine has done fantastically well so far and I think a good amount of land can be retaken by what they already have now, if they do it right. The minimum for me this counter should be to break through to the Sea of Azov coast somewhere and cut the Russian land bridge into two.

But to liberate 'all' their territories? Wow I think they they are going to need a lot of special equipment. Basically everything NATO has, especially the most modern fighter jets (but who will fly them?) and also the biggest bombs. The problem is that past the 2014 lines, the big cities like Lugansk and Donetsk are pretty much intact. Assuming the Russians don't withdraw, they will have to fight street by street. It will be like Bakhmut, except UA don't have meat or artillery to spare. Also in that area of the Donbas, it will be very hard to cut Russian logistics simply because it's too close to Russia. Maybe it's possible, I don't know. But only Commander Zalushny will know exactly how much firepower the UA has.

Crimea is a lot easier to isolate and choke as it's pretty much an island, but it will take time to do it. Russia has had 9 years now to build defence there.

Just my two cents :)
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I mostly agree. But chocking Crimea won't be easy for the UA because it takes time, and the RA will use everything to break out. There are no realistic battle fields for UA to dig in and defend there as well. If anything, they are at risk of getting encircled over there in this current situation. UA forces lack the necessary equipment (forget manpower for the time being) to do it. If they did, they would have already forced the RA soldiers out of those cities. It's fantastic that they're keeping them from completely capturing those cities for months but that's a really low bar for what we are expecting them to do and for themselves.
 
The United said:
I mostly agree. But chocking Crimea won't be easy for the UA because it takes time, and the RA will use everything to break out. There are no realistic battle fields for UA to dig in and defend there as well. If anything, they are at risk of getting encircled over there in this current situation. UA forces lack the necessary equipment (forget manpower for the time being) to do it. If they did, they would have already forced the RA soldiers out of those cities. It's fantastic that they're keeping them from completely capturing those cities for months but that's a really low bar for what we are expecting them to do and for themselves.
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Ukraine has a lot of firepower now compared to their first counter last year . They are have been stocking up on modern tanks and IFVs since winter and defending the current line with minimal resources as best they can. It's a substantial new force they are trying to generate with this tactic. Whether it's enough to get to Crimea and beyond, I don't know, but it's should be enough to cause the occupying pigs a lot of pain :)
 
Since the war began, Russia has lost droves of tech workers as well as other professionals, a brain drain that analysts say will harm the country’s economy for decades.

By contrast, many government employees have fallen in line behind Mr. Putin’s wartime leadership. Almost all senior Russian technocrats and a large majority of their immediate subordinates — officials who guide Russia’s economy — remain in their posts more than a year after the invasion.

Their professional expertise has helped Mr. Putin largely keep the economy afloat in the face of increasingly severe Western sanctions.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/world/europe/russia-technocrats-putin-ukraine-war.html
 
devilish said:
That happened more then half a century ago mate. Technology is supposedly to have improved significantly since then
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It was in response on the literal question (and quoted the post):

"How often this happens in military history?...

Tell me why is not a valid answer?
 
The United said:
I mostly agree. But chocking Crimea won't be easy for the UA because it takes time, and the RA will use everything to break out. There are no realistic battle fields for UA to dig in and defend there as well. If anything, they are at risk of getting encircled over there in this current situation. UA forces lack the necessary equipment (forget manpower for the time being) to do it. If they did, they would have already forced the RA soldiers out of those cities. It's fantastic that they're keeping them from completely capturing those cities for months but that's a really low bar for what we are expecting them to do and for themselves.
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It depends how depleted the Russians are. I think this is a good time to test where the Ukrainians have the resources in place for a proper counter offensive
 
MoskvaRed said:
I don’t see how Putin spins merely keeping Crimea as a victory if Ukraine joins NATO and regains the eastern provinces. That would require a 1984 style complete disregarding of years of propaganda on the subject. To keep your Italian theme, I think this only ends with a Mussolini style stringing up from a balcony (maybe without the gymnast).
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Ukraine isn't going to join NATO, ever. Talking as if it it is possible is one of the things that's led us to where we are today. Membership requires unanimous consent of all existing members and having no outstanding territorial disputes. (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_24733.htm). Mearsheimer said all this in 2015 and was ignored.

The end game is likely territorial concessions and neutrality. It's sucky but this is where we are.
 
foolsgold said:
Ukraine isn't going to join NATO, ever. Talking as if it it is possible is one of the things that's led us to where we are today. Membership requires unanimous consent of all existing members and having no outstanding territorial disputes. (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_24733.htm). Mearsheimer said all this in 2015 and was ignored.

The end game is likely territorial concessions and neutrality. It's sucky but this is where we are.
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O boy. Don't say those words here or mention Mearsheimer.

Slava Ukraini! Ukraine is the best! Putko is a madman!

But back on a serious note: NATO policies are very flexible and are heavily dictated by US. Ukraine could join NATO a decade from now and Russia would need to keep the war forever to prevent that.

I'm sensing that piece is incoming and that Ukraine will have to give up some territories - not sure which. Counteroffensive is unlikely. At best it is going to work at an extremely high human cost. But what then? Who is going to live in those regions? Probably old Russian people and Ukrainians who can't figure out how to move to Germany.
 
ExoduS said:
O boy. Don't say those words here or mention Mearsheimer.

Slava Ukraini! Ukraine is the best! Putko is a madman!

But back on a serious note: NATO policies are very flexible and are heavily dictated by US. Ukraine could join NATO a decade from now and Russia would need to keep the war forever to prevent that.

I'm sensing that piece is incoming and that Ukraine will have to give up some territories - not sure which. Counteroffensive is unlikely. At best it is going to work at an extremely high human cost. But what then? Who is going to live in those regions? Probably old Russian people and Ukrainians who can't figure out how to move to Germany.
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Who is going to live in those regions ? Likely the same Ukrainians who lived there before Putin invaded.
 
Raoul said:
Who is going to live in those regions ? Likely the same Ukrainians who lived there before Putin invaded.
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Ok. I'm not sure if you are serious or not, but let's say you are. Donbas and Crimea are regions where for decades, perhaps centuries majority of people identify as Russians and speak Russian. Unless Ukrainians were shelling Ukrainians in Donbas since 2014.
 
ExoduS said:
Ok. I'm not sure if you are serious or not, but let's say you are. Donbas and Crimea are regions where for decades, perhaps centuries majority of people identify as Russians and speak Russian. Unless Ukrainians were shelling Ukrainians in Donbas since 2014.
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Speaking Russian is not the same is wanting to be a part of Russia. Most Ukrainians in the south and east (plus Crimea) identify as ethnic Russians and speak Russian as a first language, but don't want to be a part of Putin's totalitarian fascist state. Spot the difference ?
 
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Raoul said:
Speaking Russian is not the same is wanting to be a part of Russia. Most Ukrainians in the south and east (plus Crimea) identify as ethnic Russians and speak Russian as a first language, but don't want to be a part of the Putin's totalitarian fascist Russian state. Spot the difference ?
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Oh ok. I must have fallen for Russian propaganda again. These Russians were just enjoying democracy brought to them by US financed and backed Maidan until Putin invaded.
 
ExoduS said:
Oh ok. I must have fallen for Russian propaganda again. These Russians were just enjoying democracy brought to them by US financed and backed Maidan until Putin invaded.
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Precisely. Ukraine is a Democratic nation that holds regular credible and transparent elections, and all ethnic Ukrainians and Russians holding Ukrainian nationality can vote who for ever they want. Unlike in Putin's Russia where elections are predetermined before a single vote has been cast, because that's how totalitarian fascists states masquerading as democracies roll.
 
Raoul said:
Precisely. Ukraine is a Democratic nation that holds regular credible and transparent elections, and all ethnic Ukrainians and Russians holding Ukrainian nationality can vote who for ever they want. Unlike in Putin's Russia where elections are predetermined before a single vote has been cast, because that's how totalitarian fascists states masquerading as democracies roll.
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Fascinating that a country where elections are credible and transparent had a coup lead by ultra nationalists.
 
ExoduS said:
Fascinating that a country where elections are credible and transparent had a coup lead by ultra nationalists.
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Corruption and foreign influence on elections wouldn't be particular credible would it, which is why revolutions happen.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I’m aware of the extent of state propoganda. I just wonder how they would sell (to the elite as well) the retention of Crimea alone as a price worth paying for the last 14 months. They effectively had Crimea anyway apart from a few slap on the wrist sanctions.
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Putin will portray it as a great victory. Not only had he 'cleansed' Ukraine from 'Nazis' but he was able to go toe to toe against the West and made them recognise Crimea as part of Russia. For the rest, well, they won't be very happy about it. However the man has great control over the country (although its slowly diminishing) and he's 70 years old. Would they risk organising a coup against someone who will probably die very soon irrespectively?
 
I think it's the first confirmed case of Ukrainians establishing positions on the other side of the river.



Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City).[1] This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area
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ExoduS said:
Fascinating that a country where elections are credible and transparent had a coup lead by ultra nationalists.
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Is there something wrong with Nationalism in a country whose very existence is threatened? Hell, I think I'm a Ukrainian ultra nationalist at this point.

Nationalism in Ukraine and other countries living under Russian influence is a completely different thing to nationalism elsewhere, where it tends to be just bigoted wankers.
 
Not specifically related to the war but I recently visited Bali, Indonesia and it surprised me to see how so many tourists there are Russians and Ukranians (mostly young people). At first I noticed the language when they spoke but I wasn't sure. Later, the hotel manager told me there have been a massive increase of visitors from both countries, usually youths and they stay for a long period of time (months). I was told the main reason is they are trying to avoid war. Can you imagine that? the older people are busy fighting this war, that killed so many lives and then you have the youths not giving a feck, left their countries and decided to spend their time mingling and dancing at beach clubs.
 
foolsgold said:
Ukraine isn't going to join NATO, ever. Talking as if it it is possible is one of the things that's led us to where we are today. Membership requires unanimous consent of all existing members and having no outstanding territorial disputes. (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_24733.htm). Mearsheimer said all this in 2015 and was ignored.

The end game is likely territorial concessions and neutrality. It's sucky but this is where we are.
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Things have changed a bit since 2015 in case you haven’t noticed and Mearsheimer is at best an idiot. Concessions and neutrality are no solution as we would face the same problem in 5-10 years once Russia rebuilds its army. Europe (even Germany) has finally woken up to the fact that we need to deal with the fascist expansionist state on our Eastern flank.
 
tenpoless said:
Not specifically related to the war but I recently visited Bali, Indonesia and it surprised me to see how so many tourists there are Russians and Ukranians (mostly young people). At first I noticed the language when they spoke but I wasn't sure. Later, the hotel manager told me there have been a massive increase of visitors from both countries, usually youths and they stay for a long period of time (months). I was told the main reason is they are trying to avoid war. Can you imagine that? the older people are busy fighting this war, that killed so many lives and then you have the youths not giving a feck, left their countries and decided to spend their time mingling and dancing at beach clubs.
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Can't say I'd be keen on getting drafted either tbf. I'd be on the first boat to somewhere warm.
 
tenpoless said:
Not specifically related to the war but I recently visited Bali, Indonesia and it surprised me to see how so many tourists there are Russians and Ukranians (mostly young people). At first I noticed the language when they spoke but I wasn't sure. Later, the hotel manager told me there have been a massive increase of visitors from both countries, usually youths and they stay for a long period of time (months). I was told the main reason is they are trying to avoid war. Can you imagine that? the older people are busy fighting this war, that killed so many lives and then you have the youths not giving a feck, left their countries and decided to spend their time mingling and dancing at beach clubs.
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Ukrainians have fled all over the place, you can't really blame them either. Plenty of people wouldn't sign up voluntarily for a war and that's why conscription is a thing.

Russians go to countries that don't give a feck and will take them, which rules out much of Europe now.
 
tenpoless said:
Not specifically related to the war but I recently visited Bali, Indonesia and it surprised me to see how so many tourists there are Russians and Ukranians (mostly young people). At first I noticed the language when they spoke but I wasn't sure. Later, the hotel manager told me there have been a massive increase of visitors from both countries, usually youths and they stay for a long period of time (months). I was told the main reason is they are trying to avoid war. Can you imagine that? the older people are busy fighting this war, that killed so many lives and then you have the youths not giving a feck, left their countries and decided to spend their time mingling and dancing at beach clubs.
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The older people (from Russia) also started this war. I can't speak for Ukrainians for obvious reasons but I'd rather the Russian youth would spend their time on Bali doing whatever instead of getting drafted to invade the neighbouring country.
 
I think the Ukrainians have a real chance of freeing their territory but I could be wrong. I look at the difference in quality of men fighting or arriving to fight for Ukraine versus those forced by Russia to go there. The inferiority of Russian forces particularly around comms and command and control. The best laid plans can go awry in war as Putin found out 12 months ago.

You have to applaud the courage of the Ukrainians for sticking to their strategic objective of building forces which are well trained on modern weapons and waiting for the right moment while under pressure from the WW1 tactics of the Russian forces.

I suspect the Russians are about to have their backsides kicked.
 
ExoduS said:
Ok. I'm not sure if you are serious or not, but let's say you are. Donbas and Crimea are regions where for decades, perhaps centuries majority of people identify as Russians and speak Russian. Unless Ukrainians were shelling Ukrainians in Donbas since 2014.
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Always pushing the 'Donbas' shelling narrative without any sources.. you probably buy the sham elections :(

Why the feck did these regions vote in favour of joining Ukraine in 1991 if they wanted to be dictated to by Russia?
Should we have an election in every region in the world on whether they wish to join a country because they have a large percentage of that nationality residing there? Surely if they wanted to live in Russia they had plenty of fecking time to you know, live in Russia.

It's pretty well known that Russia has used the promise of land/houses to tempt desperate Russians to move to these areas, while deporting/torturing/executing any resistance.
 
TwoSheds said:
Can't say I'd be keen on getting drafted either tbf. I'd be on the first boat to somewhere warm.
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11101 said:
Ukrainians have fled all over the place, you can't really blame them either. Plenty of people wouldn't sign up voluntarily for a war and that's why conscription is a thing.
Russians go to countries that don't give a feck and will take them, which rules out much of Europe now.
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harms said:
The older people (from Russia) also started this war. I can't speak for Ukrainians for obvious reasons but I'd rather the Russian youth would spend their time on Bali doing whatever instead of getting drafted to invade the neighbouring country.
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If I were them there's no way I'd be joining the military either. It seems like those with power have lost touch with reality. Their people don't want the war, I know it's been said hundreds of times on the media but to see it with my own eyes is a different feeling. They were literally sitting in the same queue trying to rent a motor bike. Two people at war, in the same queue. That's crazy to me and scary. I was afraid some guy is going to bring up politics and started a fight. I feel kind of sorry for the hardworking locals though, their daily lives have been disrupted. More people added on top of what's already a crowded population. Some of the foreigners took their jobs as well because they're staying there for so long (and avoiding taxes). I reckon the same thing happens in Phuket or any other place that become a refuge. The faster this ends, the better for everyone.
 
tenpoless said:
Not specifically related to the war but I recently visited Bali, Indonesia and it surprised me to see how so many tourists there are Russians and Ukranians (mostly young people). At first I noticed the language when they spoke but I wasn't sure. Later, the hotel manager told me there have been a massive increase of visitors from both countries, usually youths and they stay for a long period of time (months). I was told the main reason is they are trying to avoid war. Can you imagine that? the older people are busy fighting this war, that killed so many lives and then you have the youths not giving a feck, left their countries and decided to spend their time mingling and dancing at beach clubs.
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Fair fecks to anyone trying to escape the meat grinder and actually live.
 
Ragnar123 said:
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The whole area is basically just a big swamp with very few roads so I can't imagine this being anything else than SOF's trying to aquire targeting data for the Ukrainian artillery. Certinaly not a bridgehead of any sort.

XEXDJwD.jpg
 
Stactix said:
Always pushing the 'Donbas' shelling narrative without any sources.. you probably buy the sham elections :(

Why the feck did these regions vote in favour of joining Ukraine in 1991 if they wanted to be dictated to by Russia?
Should we have an election in every region in the world on whether they wish to join a country because they have a large percentage of that nationality residing there? Surely if they wanted to live in Russia they had plenty of fecking time to you know, live in Russia.

It's pretty well known that Russia has used the promise of land/houses to tempt desperate Russians to move to these areas, while deporting/torturing/executing any resistance.
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You're not likely to get a coherent answer on this one.
 
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