Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The United said:
He is a gamer and did it to impress his (online) friends, probably. That's what they do in that kind of community.
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Well, that is going to be a costly, costly mistake. It is little odd, because getting those clearances should be extremely hard. I know USA cops get a lot of crap (rightfully in many cases), but they stress test sh1t out of ya to become a police officer. Crazy interviews, lie detectors etc...

That kid probably heard dozen of times that he is going to prison for life if any of classified documents are leaked.

By the way, is it even confirmed that he had right access to those documents or did he obtain it through hacking/sh1t RBAC policies?
 
So the kid was IT specialist, which pretty much could mean that he was somewhere between a help desk and a system administrator. Even with no prison time, he ruined a good gig. Working for federal government is a nice gig, very much closest one can get to be working in a normal work/life balance environment. Ok pay, nice health insurance, decent vacation time, great retirement/pension.
 
A group of young men who enjoy guns, God and racism. Is he a conservative hero yet?

Edit: apparently Marjorie Taylor Greene announced that on twitter. Who would have thunk it.

ExoduS said:
So the kid was IT specialist, which pretty much could mean that he was somewhere between a help desk and a system administrator. Even with no prison time, he ruined a good gig. Working for federal government is a nice gig, very much closest one can get to be working in a normal work/life balance environment. Ok pay, nice health insurance, decent vacation time, great retirement/pension.
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I would be shocked if he didn't recieve prison time. He supposedly systematically distributed hundreds of classified documents to foreign nationals (mostly teenagers for some reason), and instructed group members to delete any information that could be incriminating.
 
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Ukraine destroyed 16 APCs again yesterday. Already 7000 destroyed APCs in little more than a year. How long can Russia sustain these insane losses? And how many of those they built in the first place :wenger:
 
Laurencio said:
A group of young men who enjoy guns, God and racism. Is he a conservative hero yet?

Edit: apparently Marjorie Taylor Greene announced that on twitter. Who would have thunk it.



I would be shocked if he didn't recieve prison time. He supposedly systematically distributed hundreds of classified documents to foreign nationals (mostly teenagers for some reason), and instructed group members to delete any information that could be incriminating.
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He’s getting massive prison time. The Americans tried very hard to get that British autistic kid 20 years for hacking (trying to find proof aliens). The one time the British gov didn’t bend over and extradite.

This is way worse, they’ll have no qualms locking up and throwing away the key. Not really sure what he can even offer them, not exactly Frank Abagnale.
 
21 years old and he's screwed up the rest of his life in a bigger way than most could manage to do. I wonder what he's thinking right now? Was it even done for a reason that was worth it?
 
Cloud7 said:
21 years old and he's screwed up the rest of his life in a bigger way than most could manage to do. I wonder what he's thinking right now? Was it even done for a reason that was worth it?
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Considering it was shared in some minecraft discord channel, I think we can assume the reason was to look cool against his internet friends who probably would have been more interested in some boob pics rather than the stuff he leaked as it did go unnoticed for weeks.
 
dove said:
Considering it was shared in some minecraft discord channel, I think we can assume the reason was to look cool against his internet friends who probably would have been more interested in some boob pics rather than the stuff he leaked as it did go unnoticed for weeks.
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Even more sad that it was done for such a dumb reason
 
Drainy said:
What an idiot. Hopefully they make an example of him, assuming he's guilty of course.
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Whilst I agree, I'd also be sad if he's fecked up his life over such an immature thing to do. 10 years? He'd lose the best years of his life but still have a chance to get out and rebuild something, particularly if he were to get parole.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Ukraine destroyed 16 APCs again yesterday. Already 7000 destroyed APCs in little more than a year. How long can Russia sustain these insane losses? And how many of those they built in the first place :wenger:
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They cant. The fact that they are wheeling out Tanks that were outdated 40 years ago and are welding shitty cages onto artillery and APC's means they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Even if they had the manufacturing capacity to keep up, sanctions means they are lacking a lot of components
 
TwoSheds said:
Whilst I agree, I'd also be sad if he's fecked up his life over such an immature thing to do. 10 years? He'd lose the best years of his life but still have a chance to get out and rebuild something, particularly if he were to get parole.
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It's national security. They need to send a message to the rank and file that it's zero tolerance. It's not even like it's a whistle blowing scenario..

I was having a laugh with ma boys on discord doesn't cut it. Throw away the keys.
 
Bobcat said:
They cant. The fact that they are wheeling out Tanks that were outdated 40 years ago and are welding shitty cages onto artillery and APC's means they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Even if they had the manufacturing capacity to keep up, sanctions means they are lacking a lot of components
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I don't think those are that effective as it would seem because even though it obviously makes things harder, there are ways...



In general I feel we underestimate Russia's capability of sustaining this war. The economic collapse is looking less and less likely to happen because they replaced the revenue lost from the exports to Europe by doubling or tripling exports to Turkey, China, Hungary etc. They obviously lose a lot of military equipment but I would guess the war will enter a new phase relatively soon (it kind of did already, with frontlines barely changing for the past half a year) because Russia doesn't have enough to win ground and at the same time we don't provide Ukraine with enough to retake ground.
 
Drainy said:
It's national security. They need to send a message to the rank and file that it's zero tolerance. It's not even like it's a whistle blowing scenario..

I was having a laugh with ma boys on discord doesn't cut it. Throw away the keys.
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Exactly. The punishment for leaking secret documents does not depend on the reason for those leaks, but on the act itself. They need to send a message of deterrence. It's the same with Snowden. It doesn't matter if he did a good thing and uncovered criminal activities. The public message has to be, that you basically lose your life if you abuse top secret trust, so other people don't even think about it or worse, can't be bought by foreign secret services.
And I'm pretty sure people handling this top secret stuff are well aware of the possible punishment. It's usually the first thing you tell them.
 
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dove said:
I don't think those are that effective as it would seem because even though it obviously makes things harder, there are ways...



In general I feel we underestimate Russia's capability of sustaining this war. The economic collapse is looking less and less likely to happen because they replaced the revenue lost from the exports to Europe by doubling or tripling exports to Turkey, China, Hungary etc. They obviously lose a lot of military equipment but I would guess the war will enter a new phase relatively soon (it kind of did already, with frontlines barely changing for the past half a year) because Russia doesn't have enough to win ground and at the same time we don't provide Ukraine with enough to retake ground.
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I know, its partly wishful thinking. Its almost a year ago when everyone reported they were running "dangerously low" on electrical components and micro-chips, but of course if they can get them from China or dishonest Europen businesses then the supposed shortage is way overblown.
 
dove said:
In general I feel we underestimate Russia's capability of sustaining this war. The economic collapse is looking less and less likely to happen because they replaced the revenue lost from the exports to Europe by doubling or tripling exports to Turkey, China, Hungary etc.
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Sanctions are like a snowball rolling down the mountain. It takes time to reach a certain size which can harm you. But it sure as hell will reach this size and then you're unable to stop it. An example is their aviation. The longer they fly without repairs and maintenance, the worse it gets. Their economy will shrink without investors over time as well and that will have an impact on everything. China is using them as a colony now and Turkey, Hungary and India can only buy and pay a fraction of Europe's purchase volume before the war.

 
Don't forget Russia is still running a deficit producing military equipment and state construction in order to keep the economy going, but a vast majority of the Russian economy is not looking good. People's living standards and investments are plummeting fast. They are keeping their economy afloat by pumping money into equipment that gets destroyed, importing electronics at a price well above market value to do so, and selling energy at below market value to China.

While their war machine are able to import just enough to keep the economy up, the rest of the Russian economy can't. That will shrink the Russian economy and make everything worse.

That isn't sustainable in the long run, especially if the energy prices drop as Europe's power network is expanded.
 
Carolina Red said:
Military intelligence is military intelligence. Our National Guard has been integrated into our regular military apparatus
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Yeah, fair enough. There needs to be a top down review of security protocols then, especially at the periphery of the intelligence community.
 
Navalny in critical condition now, what a shocker :rolleyes:

Only another Putin opposer who’s ailed by an unknown illness. For the 2nd time in Navalny’s case.
 
Dans said:
Absolutely agree. Brave, but stupid.
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He knew what to expect. Either he dies in prison as a martyr or he survives until Putin's regime collapses and then he would have a good chance of becoming the next president. He went all-in, literally.
 
Ragnar123 said:
He knew what to expect. Either he dies in prison as a martyr or he survives until Putin's regime collapses and then he would have a good chance of becoming the next president. He went all-in, literally.
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Like I said, brave, but stupid!
 
JJ12 said:
Navalny in critical condition now, what a shocker :rolleyes:

Only another Putin opposer who’s ailed by an unknown illness. For the 2nd time in Navalny’s case.
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Don't really understand why Putin has kept him around, it seems strange to me that anyone in Russia would be under any pretence anymore that they're not living in a dictatorship.
 
GazTheLegend said:
Don't really understand why Putin has kept him around, it seems strange to me that anyone in Russia would be under any pretence anymore that they're not living in a dictatorship.
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Because he doesn't want to deal with demonstrations that would surely happen if Navalny is perceived as having been martyred. He already has enough trouble on his hands to further stir the pot domestically. Not that Navalny won't die at some point simply because of the day to day life he is leading in prison.
 
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Dans said:
Like I said, brave, but stupid!
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Depends on the point of view. He knew what to expect and still went there, so it's not stupid in his opinion. He is willing to put his life on the line to reach his goals.
 
Random thought came to my mind that I haven't heard about Kadyrov for quite some time now, wonder how is his Tiktok army doing? Did Putin mute him or what happened to him?
 
Ragnar123 said:
Depends on the point of view. He knew what to expect and still went there, so it's not stupid in his opinion. He is willing to put his life on the line to reach his goals.
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The point is surely, that it's now looking very unlikely that he'll meet his goals and frankly, as soon as he got on the plane home, the odds were massively stacked against him. A fatal miscalculation potentially.
 
Dans said:
The point is surely, that it's now looking very unlikely that he'll meet his goals and frankly, as soon as he got on the plane home, the odds were massively stacked against him. A fatal miscalculation potentially.
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You just have to calculate the amount of people that have been muted - via death - to understand the likely outcome.

But as others have said, he could very well have been in a die-die situation wherever he ended up. So going back to Russia may remove all doubt of the ‘we didn’t do it’ nonsense that some may have lapped up.
 
Raoul said:
Because he doesn't want to deal with demonstrations that would surely happen if Navalny is perceived as having beeb martyred. He already has enough trouble on his hands to further stir the pot domestically. Not that Navalny won't die at some point simply because of the day to day life he is leading in prison.
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We've already seen what happens to demonstrators over there. I believe personally it's to protect his narcissistic image at this point: he "needs" some competitor still breathing to beat. He doesn't want a LEGITIMATE competitor. As long as Navalny is alive, in Putin's own mind I expect he's "winning" these sham elections of his.
 
Some of Ukraine’s European allies are increasingly skeptical its military will be able to make a decisive breakthrough this year because Russia’s defenses have had time to dig in ahead of the looming offensive.

The mood among Western officials marks a sharp departure from late last year, when Kyiv surprised its allies - as well as Russia - with a pair of successful counteroffensives that recaptured large swathes of occupied land.
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