Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

harms said:
Yeah, that’s also my point. Original idea was to aim for the “good old Europe”, meaning mostly nationalistic conservatives, with the anti-liberal anti-immigration pro-religious system, but it kinda blew up after the beginning of the invasion where the Europe (or, rather, the “West”) ended up being Russia’s main antagonist.
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As you know, the whole thing was supposed to last a few days, and Putin would install a puppet government in Ukraine and the masses would declare him a Master Strategist. Again.

This failed miserably, so they can't find a way out and they spout bullshit (about the Nazis, the West, the gays, whatever)... It means nothing to anyone. The essence of modern Russia is a Mafia State, nothing else.

The real problem is that for a long time, Russians allowed Putin to build this monolithic mafia government, controlling the money, the media, the prisons, and everything else. With every opposition leader that was eliminated, Russia descended further into becoming a Mafia State. Sooner or later another Stalin-like character would appear. If Putin was too soft, someone worse than him would kill him and become the Master Strategist.

It is really unfortunate that the West also allowed that. We saw who Putin is in Chechnya, in Syria, in Georgia, in handling the opposition ... but the Western leaders cared about the money first and foremost.
 
Looks like the second mobilization wave, as predicted, is on the way. To keep the people quite, it's officially only for volunteers. But without a doubt they will force to volunteer if necessary.

 
Ragnar123 said:
Looks like the second mobilization wave, as predicted, is on the way. To keep the people quite, it's officially only for volunteers. But without a doubt they will force to volunteer if necessary.

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Sigh ... send 400,000 more bullets to Ukraine then.
 


Who would have thought releasing convicted, war hardened murderers with PTSD back into society wasn't such a good idea after all. If you think Russia finally hit rock bottom, they prove you wrong.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Looks like the second mobilization wave, as predicted, is on the way. To keep the people quite, it's officially only for volunteers. But without a doubt they will force to volunteer if necessary.

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Wonder what kind of antiquated gear they're digging out to equip them. This is just madness. Putin is crippling Russia for decades to come and there's nothing to gain for them from that war. Even if they succeeded there's no way that would in any way justify the price they paid for it. It is literally insane what they're willing to sacrifice for symbolic victories both in the short and long term.
 
This war wont end in a really, really long time, unless Putin falls out a window.

Even if Ukraine kicks the russians out of the country, Russia will keep launching border attacks, launching missiles and so on.

It could end up something like North and South Korea, who are officially still at war.
 
Morty_ said:
This war wont end in a really, really long time, unless Putin falls out a window.

Even if Ukraine kicks the russians out of the country, Russia will keep launching border attacks, launching missiles and so on.

It could end up something like North and South Korea, who are officially still at war.
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I think it will not end in a long long time irrespective of Putin falling out of a window. Russia as a nation is so far gone that it would take decades to sober up from the hundreds of years propaganda, and that is assuming their new leader would somehow be different than their former ones which is highly unlikely.
 
dove said:
I think it will not end in a long long time irrespective of Putin falling out of a window. Russia as a nation is so far gone that it would take decades to sober up from the hundreds of years propaganda, and that is assuming their new leader would somehow be different than their former ones which is highly unlikely.
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Russian leadership, and russians at large, don't believe Ukraine is a real country, or that Ukranians are actual people, so you might be right.

Its insane though, that they are willing to go into permanent decline just because of ideology, Russia's demographics were already bad, millions leaving or dying in battle will have dire consequences for them.
 
Morty_ said:
This war wont end in a really, really long time, unless Putin falls out a window.

Even if Ukraine kicks the russians out of the country, Russia will keep launching border attacks, launching missiles and so on.

It could end up something like North and South Korea, who are officially still at war.
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Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.
 
nickm said:
Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.
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Isn't Crimea an unrealistic target this year, for a number of reasons?
But they could cut it off, blow up the bridge and leave them to fend for themselves.
 
Morty_ said:
Isn't Crimea an unrealistic target this year, for a number of reasons?
But they could cut it off, blow up the bridge and leave them to fend for themselves.
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Crimea is actually a very soft target atm. A lot of the occupied territories are harder to fully breach than Crimea, unfortunate is that it comes with major soft targets, people. As Russian forces, there are in the middle of regular locals. It's safe to say that nobody from Ukranian side wants to kill any soft targets.
 
nickm said:
Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.
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The problem is that Russia is a mafia state, so Putin does not have to promise anything to anyone. He will just say that everything is fine, and if someone says it isn't, he will go to prison. This is not different from any violent, militaristic dictatorship.
 
JuriM said:
Crimea is actually a very soft target atm. A lot of the occupied territories are harder to fully breach than Crimea, unfortunate is that it comes with major soft targets, people. As Russian forces, there are in the middle of regular locals. It's safe to say that nobody from Ukranian side wants to kill any soft targets.
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If you make it into Crimea proper, perhaps, i don't really have a clue about Crimea, but just looking at the map, there is a narrow point of entry, and then a bunch of lakes.

You would imagine getting through there will be anything but easy.
 
dove said:
I think it will not end in a long long time irrespective of Putin falling out of a window. Russia as a nation is so far gone that it would take decades to sober up from the hundreds of years propaganda, and that is assuming their new leader would somehow be different than their former ones which is highly unlikely.
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I’d imagine that people said similar when Gorbachev came to power, and yet he was able to push through a huge drawdown of Soviet troops from abroad, and significantly alter their posture. A leader with the right understanding of the situation could feasibly change things. I might be saying that more in hope than expectation though.
 
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Morty_ said:
If you make it into Crimea proper, perhaps, i don't really have a clue about Crimea, but just looking at the map, there is a narrow point of entry, and then a bunch of lakes.

You would imagine getting through there will be anything but easy.
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The best way is probably to retake Kherson oblast and take out the Kerch bridge, this will cut off all supply routes into Crimea. After that they keep pressure on them with long range precision strikes and wait for them to give up. Basically what they did in Kherson last autumn.
 
Russia again seeking munitions from North Korea.

Russia is seeking to acquire more munitions from North Korea to bolster its war on Ukraine, the White House revealed on Thursday.
The development comes as Moscow has sought help from other countries such as Iran as it continues to expend equipment and ammunition on the battlefield.

In a briefing with reporters, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Vladimir Putin would likely send food to Pyongyang in exchange for the munitions.
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https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/30/russia-seeking-munitions-from-north-korea-00089672
 
frostbite said:
The problem is that Russia is a mafia state, so Putin does not have to promise anything to anyone. He will just say that everything is fine, and if someone says it isn't, he will go to prison. This is not different from any violent, militaristic dictatorship.
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I guess we will see. He sits on top of a society of thieves. If theres nothing left to steal, that golden throne he sits on is going to look very tempting.
 
Morty_ said:
If you make it into Crimea proper, perhaps, i don't really have a clue about Crimea, but just looking at the map, there is a narrow point of entry, and then a bunch of lakes.

You would imagine getting through there will be anything but easy.
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IIRC the water supply to Crimea comes from the Dnieper river, specifically Nova Khakovka. If the UA secures it, then the region runs dry. It appears to be a good strategy -slowly suffocate Crimea while focusing its forces in the Donbas an Zaporzhizhia. Altough they have surprised us before.
 
nickm said:
Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.
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If that happens I can totally see Putin going nuclear and then maybe being thrown out of a window.

He is +70 years old, similar his pals. The "feck it" button is just there and if he can't win, he will go in destruction mode
 
Krakenzero said:
IIRC the water supply to Crimea comes from the Dnieper river, specifically Nova Khakovka. If the UA secures it, then the region runs dry. It appears to be a good strategy -slowly suffocate Crimea while focusing its forces in the Donbas an Zaporzhizhia. Altough they have surprised us before.
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Nova Kharkova is where I would aim first alongside the destruction of Kerch Bridge. Nevertheless, I'm still on board with the idea of Ukraine crushing whatever resistance left standing in Crimea. The strategic value of the peninsula is way too important for Ukraine to not go all in; it is Ukraine's Port-Arthur (in a reference to the Russo-Japanese War). Taking over Crimea would also mean Russia losing a large chunk of naval influence in the Black Sea.
 


After Hungary, Turkey ratifies Finland’s membership… Finland is now all but a member of the alliance… That’s over 1300 km (830 miles) of Russia’s borders now becoming NATO territory…

28 of the 30 countries have ratified Sweden’s. Only Hungary and Turkey left.
 
‘Vulkan files’ leak reveals Putin’s global and domestic cyberwarfare tactics

Documents leaked by whistleblower angry over Ukraine war

Private Moscow consultancy bolstering Russian cyberwarfare

Tools support hacking operations and attacks on infrastructure

Documents linked to notorious Russian hacking group Sandworm

Russian program aims to control internet and spread disinformation


https://www.theguardian.com/technol...tins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics
 
nickm said:
Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.
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I cannot see Muscovites accepting Kadyrov in such a role.
 
This isn't going to look good on Paris, France nor the IOC unless they change their stance on Russian athletes.



Seems to me people have forgotten that South Africa (under Apartheid) and Yugoslavia were banned from participating in the Olympics altogether before. This ain't new.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
This isn't going to look good on Paris, France nor the IOC unless they change their stance on Russian athletes.



Seems to me people have forgotten that South Africa (under Apartheid) and Yugoslavia were banned from participating in the Olympics altogether before. This ain't new.
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Yea I don't see how they can sustain that shocking decision to allow Russians. I think quite a few countries would follow suit in support of Ukraine too if needed.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
This isn't going to look good on Paris, France nor the IOC unless they change their stance on Russian athletes.



Seems to me people have forgotten that South Africa (under Apartheid) and Yugoslavia were banned from participating in the Olympics altogether before. This ain't new.
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But ZA and Yogoslavia didn't buy the IOC back in the days as Russia and China do today.
The west needs to give the corrupt IOC a choice. Without the two warmongering (Russia and Belarus) countries or without us. I hope we don't let Ukraine stand alone on this one. Many russian athletes are officers in their army or support Putin's politics in other ways.
 
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dove said:
Yea I don't see how they can sustain that shocking decision to allow Russians. I think quite a few countries would follow suit in support of Ukraine too if needed.
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Yep I hope other countries pull out in protest.
 
Pintu said:


After Hungary, Turkey ratifies Finland’s membership… Finland is now all but a member of the alliance… That’s over 1300 km (830 miles) of Russia’s borders now becoming NATO territory…

28 of the 30 countries have ratified Sweden’s. Only Hungary and Turkey left.
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But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.
 
Ragnar123 said:
But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.
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Of course he will, but how much of a "win" for him is it really? Hes been huffing and puffing about supposed "Kurdish terrorists" but do the Turkish people really care that much?
 
Ragnar123 said:
But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.
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Isn't there a pretty decent chance Erdogan won't be the president in a few months?

Have any of the other candidates said anything about Sweden joining NATO?
 
Ragnar123 said:
But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.
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I think they will once Turkey gets whatever they want in exchange.

 
stevoc said:
Isn't there a pretty decent chance Erdogan won't be the president in a few months?
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Let's hope so, but Erdogan doesn't seem the type to step down quietly and he has still a strong support in rural areas. Let's see what happens.

Back on topic, it's exactly one year ago when the world discovered russian inhumane war crimes after liberating Bucha and Irpin.





I fear what we'll find out after Ukraine liberates Mariupol.....
 
Ragnar123 said:
Let's hope so, but Erdogan doesn't seem the type to step down quietly and he has still a strong support in rural areas. Let's see what happens.

Back on topic, it's exactly one year ago when the world discovered russian inhumane war crimes after liberating Bucha and Irpin.





I fear what we'll find out after Ukraine liberates Mariupol.....
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I don't think we will find out much to be honest. They had a decent amount of time to hide all traces, and still continue doing so.

 
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