Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Ragnar123 said:
A bit offtopic here (maybe not, because pressure on China leads to a weak Putin):

Biden needs to gather Europe's leaders and together they need to discuss how they can pressure China. Xi feels invulnerable right now. He took full control of China recently with a demonstration of power. He also knows the west is dependent on China, so he feels like he can do whatever he wants with no consequences.

But the western industry made China rich in the first place and what's stopping us to outsource all our production to other south asian countries?
Why don't we start building new factories in India for example? They have the same population as China, are poor as feck and would love european factories to boost their economy. China has entire cities dedicated to a certain production line because of the western market. I saw a documentary of a town that makes only shoes. You can imagine what happens to that town if western countries stop ordering their shoes.
I don't understand why we don't play that card. We have more leverage on China than the other way around. If we start to outsource and stop ordering from China, they will crash harder than a meteorite.

The only way to keep China in line is threatening their current status. In my opinion, Xi is even more dangerous than Putin in the long run.
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Exactly, but that also makes him susceptible to becoming too bold. Putting sanctions on China is difficult since there is mutualy dependenacy there between them and the west, but cozying up to Putin of all people seems like an odd thing to do.
 
Real Name said:
Any talk about a possible UA offensive somewhere?
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Its talked about now by all parties as if its pretty much a certainty. I still have a worry in the back of my mind that they might not have the ammo or whatever to pull it off, but things do seem to be gearing up this way.

I also wonder if attrition rates really are so favourable to Ukraine, it may be a preferred option to just carry things on as they are, rather than take the risk of an offensive. Depends on how much they think time is on their side, and a million other factors I guess. We shall see.
 
Simbo said:
Its talked about now by all parties as if its pretty much a certainty. I still have a worry in the back of my mind that they might not have the ammo or whatever to pull it off, but things do seem to be gearing up this way.

I also wonder if attrition rates really are so favourable to Ukraine, it may be a preferred option to just carry things on as they are, rather than take the risk of an offensive. Depends on how much they think time is on their side, and a million other factors I guess. We shall see.
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Yeah, of course offensive shouldn't be rushed at any cost cause if they go into in unprepared it might backfire big time.
 


Emperor Palpatine invites a dear friend...So surreal that their people are okay with this. Don't they have any selfrespect to court them like tsars?
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Joe Biden needs to do a Bush and outright call those two out as the new Axis of Evil. There is simply no other way to put it when Xi already made his bed.
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On the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq mate? You've learned feck all?
 
Real Name said:
Wonder where will they want to hit first. Maybe Mariupol area while Russians are still occupied with Bakhmut or will be in the future.
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I would think they'd like to cut through to the black sea to be able to get back the rest of Kherson and access to Crimea without having to cross the Dnipro river at Kherson.
 
Maagge said:
I would think they'd like to cut through to the black sea to be able to get back the rest of Kherson and access to Crimea without having to cross the Dnipro river at Kherson.
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This is the most obvious and Russia expects this according to this map. The fortifications are strongest in Zaporizhzhia area.
 
Raoul said:
I don’t think they’re going to lie, but they wouldn’t be incentivized to make conservative approximations either. Still a pretty remarkable number and if remotely true, would suggest the Russians are losing people at an unsustainable level that could actually see them collapse and lose a lot of territory should they ever fail to consistently replenish the dead.
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With some of the images I've seen today, seems fairly believable!
 
Ragnar123 said:
This is the most obvious and Russia expects this according to this map. The fortifications are strongest in Zaporizhzhia area.
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Looking at that map, wouldn't it make sense to push through Luhansk, mine/entrench/fortify the frontier to block any reinforcements coming that way, and then go from East to West facing an enemy with an increasingly stressed supply line and the constant risk of being surrounded? I imagine is easier said than done but it looks like a good strategy from the outside, especially as russian deffense have been weaker there recently.
 
Real Name said:
Wonder where will they want to hit first. Maybe Mariupol area while Russians are still occupied with Bakhmut or will be in the future.
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Without considering the strenghts of the Russian defensive forces in various sectors Melitopol would seem like an obvious choise, it's fairly close to the front lines and taking it back would cut off all logistic routes between Crimea/Kherson oblast and Donbas.

But the reality is that US and EU support will probably peak this spring for the forseeable future and it will probably take 12-18 months before the ammunition production has caught up and we will be able to provide them with similar offensive capabilities again. Because of this Ukraine know they can't afford a failure, they need to attack where they have a good chanse of succes and a break through will yield some strategic advantages. A failure will probably mean at least another year of the same trench warfare we have seen this winter and that will be very costly for Ukraine. Whatever happens in the coming months it will have very long lasting consequences on the war.
 
Real Name said:
Wonder where will they want to hit first. Maybe Mariupol area while Russians are still occupied with Bakhmut or will be in the future.
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The Ukrainians will want to cut off Crimea first, which would seem the most logical since its a fairly narrow sliver or land between Crimea and Kherson Oblast. That would at least partially deprive Putin of being able to resupply his troops in Kherson, which will allow the Ukrainians to reclaim it with less resistance (that's if they're successful in cutting Crimea off). In terms of the east, it will be much harder since there hasn't been much progress in months.
 
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Russia is a fascist state that does not want to know its real history. Lies upon lies about its own past and present. I don't know if there is a way back, with or without Putin. Too many people are involved.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65024254

Memorial raids: Russia targets leaders of banned Nobel Prize-winning group

Nine leaders of one of Russia's oldest human rights groups, Memorial, have been targeted in raids on their homes, 15 months after their organisation was shut down by the courts.

Among them was Memorial's co-chair, Oleg Orlov, who is facing a criminal case for "discrediting" the military.

Founded in 1989, Memorial aimed to remember millions of innocent people persecuted by Soviet repression.

But it was liquidated ahead of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
 
frostbite said:
Russia is a fascist state that does not want to know its real history. Lies upon lies about its own past and present. I don't know if there is a way back, with or without Putin. Too many people are involved.
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It reminds me of a tweet that Mark Hertling wrote only 2 days ago.



While Germany and Japan managed to rise up from the ashes of WW2 to become a new breed of superpowers through economy, Russia are in a much deeper hole compared to the other 2 countries because of longstanding kleptocracy and corruption. You could have Jason and the Argonauts with you, and yet it would not be enough to clean up the house in Russia.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
It reminds me of a tweet that Mark Hertling wrote only 2 days ago.



While Germany and Japan managed to rise up from the ashes of WW2 to become a new breed of superpowers through economy, Russia are in a much deeper hole compared to the other 2 countries because of longstanding kleptocracy and corruption. You could have Jason and the Argonauts with you, and yet it would not be enough to clean up the house in Russia.
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Yes. Also, both Germany and Japan transformed into modern, stable democracies (while neither of them had any deep democratic traditions in the past). And the truth is that occupation by the United States helped them to establish and nurture their democracies, especially at the beginning.

Russia does have this and doesn't show any deep desire for democracy... actually, I really don't see how they can transform themselves into a democracy. Watching videos with interviews of everyday Russians on youtube, I get the impression that Putin is not an anomaly, if it wasn't Putin it would be someone else. And if the autocrat cannot depend on an economic ideology like Communism to justify their power and their excesses, then they need some other ideology, and usually this is either God or Nationalism or both.
 
frostbite said:
Yes. Also, both Germany and Japan transformed into modern, stable democracies (while neither of them had any deep democratic traditions in the past). And the truth is that occupation by the United States helped them to establish and nurture their democracies, especially at the beginning.

Russia does have this and doesn't show any deep desire for democracy... actually, I really don't see how they can transform themselves into a democracy. Watching videos with interviews of everyday Russians on youtube, I get the impression that Putin is not an anomaly, if it wasn't Putin it would be someone else. And if the autocrat cannot depend on an economic ideology like Communism to justify their power and their excesses, then they need some other ideology, and usually this is either God or Nationalism or both.
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I think USA should nuke some democracy into Russia. It will be good for them. Worked for Japan, no?
 
ExoduS said:
I think USA should nuke some democracy into Russia. It will be good for them. Worked for Japan, no?
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Nobody says Russia should be nuked. But it needs a very deep transformation and that's very unlikely to happen without "boots on the ground" supporting and organizing this transformation.
 


When will they start removing T-34 monuments to use them in Ukraine?
 
Ragnar123 said:


When will they start removing T-34 monuments to use them in Ukraine?
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I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.
 
B20 said:
I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.
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Likely some of those tanks are older than that.
 
B20 said:
I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.
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But they are painfully useless compared to modern armor and even more so to MANPATS
 
B20 said:
I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.
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The main news is that Russia are replenishing stocks with obsolete 1950s era equipment whilst Ukraine are getting the very latest kit from the West. Losses will only accelerate from here.
 
11101 said:
The main news is that Russia are replenishing stocks with obsolete 1950s era equipment whilst Ukraine are getting the very latest kit from the West. Losses will only accelerate from here.
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Exactly. They will only scratch the surface of Leos and Challengers, while getting obliterated with the first hit from them if they even can get close enough to see them actually. Most of the time the T55 won't even know where the enemy is until it goes up in flames. The same result with other modern anti armor like Javelins and Manpads. This will not improve the morale of russian tankers either if they have to duel modern tanks in that old garbage.
 
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B20 said:
I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.
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They have a feckton in storage, but what percentage will be operational? A marginal amount, absolutely sure. They've been in storage for decades.
 
B20 said:
I am not sure it's something that mockable. They likely have a feckton of T-54/55s in storage. They may be from the 70s, but being able to add to your tanks force like this is obviously an asset Russia has that I am sure Ukraine would be copying if they could. Likely, it is only the US that can fight a war like this and never worry about exhausting resources.
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They will soak up some Ukranian ammo. Costs Putin nothing much, just y'know... Russian people.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Exactly. They will only scratch the surface of Leos and Challengers, while getting obliterated with the first hit from them if they even can get close enough to see them actually. Most of the time the T55 won't even know where the enemy is until it goes up in flames. The same result with other modern anti armor like Javelins and Manpads. This will not improve the morale of russian tankers either if they have to duel modern tanks in that old garbage.
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As long as Russia continues to have such superior numbers of tanks compared to Ukraine, they aren't duelling 1to1. More likely many of those will see enough battle unopposed to be well worth it.

Make no mistake, if Ukraine had the option of doing the same, they would have a long time ago.
 
Raoul said:
Most Republicans support aid for Ukraine as do most Dems, so any attempt to curtail it by (lets say) a Trump or DeSantis would meet fierce resistance from both Congress and by a large swath of the US public, which is something no new President will want to have to deal with. Moreover, by the time of the next inauguration in Jan of 2025, I expect the Russians will have been sufficiently beaten down and will have probably drawn back by then, which will make the issue a moot point. Putin would be hard pressed to remain in power and in the process obliterate the Russian economy for much longer imo.
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Ron DeSantis says his Ukraine remarks 'mischaracterised'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65047556

The widely tipped 2024 White House contender said in a TV interview his remarks had been "mischaracterised".

He also struck a tougher tone on Vladimir Putin, calling the Russian president a "war criminal".


"It wasn't that I thought Russia had a right to that," Mr DeSantis added, calling the notion that Moscow was justified in its attack "nonsense".

"If I could snap my fingers, I'd give it back to Ukraine 100%," the former congressman and ex-US Navy lawyer continued.
 
B20 said:
As long as Russia continues to have such superior numbers of tanks compared to Ukraine, they aren't duelling 1to1. More likely many of those will see enough battle unopposed to be well worth it.

Make no mistake, if Ukraine had the option of doing the same, they would have a long time ago.
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The older their tanks become, the less numbers matter. I've read the T54/T55 armor can be penetrated with a 50. cal in some places.

Russians are 2 steps ahead. They have already bandages in their helmets so they don't need to wait for medics.
 
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