Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Ragnar123]

If you bring body doubles, make it less obvious.

The terrorist Girkin explained it perfectly. The real one is always alone. Even the two highest military have to sit 20m away from him. The ones hugging or even standing near "people" aka. actors and fsb agents are doubles.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

If you bring body doubles, make it less obvious.

I couldn’t give a shite if any of this is real but, in the age of photoshop, that’s incredibly weak “evidence”. He’s exactly the sort of vain twat who would want double chins removed from any photos released via official media.

 

[Ragnar123]

If someone still had any doubts:


A pretty clear message from Xi and surely no coincidence so soon after Biden's visit in Kiev. They will continue to support Putin, no matter how many humans russia murder in Ukraine. They need Russia as a counterweight to western democracy and for economic reasons (cheap energy and a big market to offload their products).

 

[Dans]

If someone still had any doubts:


......... and for economic reasons (cheap energy and a big market to offload their products).

True, Russians are going to need a lot of cheap tat in the next few years.

 

[The United]

Meanwhile, Russians are gaining some ground in Avdiivka, apparently using same "outdated" tactics.

 

[Zehner]

Meanwhile, Russians are gaining some ground in Avdiivka, apparently using same "outdated" tactics.

You seem to be very critical with the media coverage and general optimism. I generally understand that and you're obviously not completely wrong but on this specific topic, do you believe it is sustainable for Russia to burn through their conscripts and weaponry at this rate?

I mean, the prevalent argument isn't that Russia cannot achieve some results in the short term (even though their failed blitzkrieg is still often ridiculed) but that their long term perspective looks bad for various reasons. One being that the sanctions and war expands will break them but for me, it is also very important that their military structure and culture lead to lots of phyrric victories.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Meanwhile, Russians are gaining some ground in Avdiivka, apparently using same "outdated" tactics.

Isn’t it the case we’ll keep getting these towns that suddenly become important like Bakhmut and now Avdiivka as the line flexes back and forth? It’s clear Russia’s tactics have been poor (even if you just completely ignore 100% of media coverage and look at the liveaumap) but they have had some successes and will continue to do so.

 

[The United]

You seem to be very critical with the media coverage and general optimism. I generally understand that and you're obviously not completely wrong but on this specific topic, do you believe it is sustainable for Russia to burn through their conscripts and weaponry at this rate?

I mean, the prevalent argument isn't that Russia cannot achieve some results in the short term (even though their failed blitzkrieg is still often ridiculed) but that their long term perspective looks bad for various reasons. One being that the sanctions and war expands will break them but for me, it is also very important that their military structure and culture lead to lots of phyrric victories.

I am just desperate for some good news like the counterattack and what not.

I kept hearing about RA's long term. But I worry about the UA short- and long-terms here.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[The United]

Isn’t it the case we’ll keep getting these towns that suddenly become important like Bakhmut and now Avdiivka as the line flexes back and forth? It’s clear Russia’s tactics have been poor (even if you just completely ignore 100% of media coverage and look at the liveaumap) but they have had some successes and will continue to do so.

It doesn't matter how bad or good the RU's tactics if the UA can't seem to hold on. It is all relative. They are not fighting against NATO troops here.

 

[Rajma]

All ammo and western IFVs/MBT/etc are getting stocked up now for the spring counter-offensive for UA, I don’t think they have fired more than a handful of HIMARS during past 2 months. Everyone is aware of what’s coming, that’s why Russia is building massive fortifications in Crimea right now. The heroes in Bakhmut/Mariinka/Avdiivka are currently living on low ammo and old soviet junk, you won’t see any modern stuff there at the moment, while Russia is throwing everything they have at the moment. They’re simply buying the time until the April/May/June while assault brigades are being prepared in the western Ukraine/Europe.

 

[Rajma]

 

[Raoul]

All ammo and western IFVs/MBT/etc are getting stocked up now for the spring counter-offensive for UA, I don’t think they have fired more than a handful of HIMARS during past 2 months. Everyone is aware of what’s coming, that’s why Russia is building massive fortifications in Crimea right now. The heroes in Bakhmut/Mariinka/Avdiivka are currently living on low ammo and old soviet junk, you won’t see any modern stuff there at the moment, while Russia is throwing everything they have at the moment. They’re simply buying the time until the April/May/June while assault brigades are being prepared in the western Ukraine/Europe.

If the Ukrainians are preparing a counter offensive they can start attacking pretty soon since the bulk of winter is over.

 

[the hea]

It doesn't matter how bad or good the RU's tactics if the UA can't seem to hold on. It is all relative. They are not fighting against NATO troops here.

Why do they need to hold on to those cities? Modern battlefield tactics is all about high maneuverbility and elastic defenses, If anything the one thing Ukraine is doing wrong is putting to much recourses into defending these cities.

 

[Ragnar123]

Bakhmut and Avdiivka already fulfilled their purpose, even if they fall in the coming weeks. They tied up a large number of russian troops and equipment for over half a year, so they couldn't rampage through the rest of the Donbass. By the end of march, most of the Leopards should be delivered and the IFVs (Marder, Bradley) are also on their way. Then the momentum will be on Ukraine's side again.
Russia failed to meet their own schedule again. They wanted to conquer the eastern front towns before Ukraine get their new shiny toys and they stormed them nonstop for weeks with insane numbers of casualties and destroyed armor. And so far, they're still failing miserably.

If the Ukrainians are preparing a counter offensive they can start attacking pretty soon since the bulk of winter is over.

They also need to wait for better weather conditions. Right now most of the roads are mud and slush. The Leopards are even heavier than the soviet tanks, which already struggle right now, so they need to wait for solid ground first.

 

[The United]

Why do they need to hold on to those cities? Modern battlefield tactics is all about high maneuverbility and elastic defenses, If anything the one thing Ukraine is doing wrong is putting to much recourses into defending these cities.

Your last point was what I meant. They are not flexing the lines there. They seem to try to hold on as much as they can but we are not seeing much of successes with it right now with the amount of resources they are pouring in. You would have to ask their capability there.

But of course it could be the right tactics for them and probably waste more of the RA's resources for long-term. I have been holding that for awhile but it is harder.

And the UA army is far from being modern. It is a war of two soviet era armies, according to some. Their offensive capability would be in question too against a bigger and more prepared troop.

 

[tomaldinho1]

It doesn't matter how bad or good the RU's tactics if the UA can't seem to hold on. It is all relative. They are not fighting against NATO troops here.

Depends on how the war develops surely? If Russia can continue this attritional war of advancing what a handful of km in months at supposedly great expense (and I don’t think we have that much reason to doubt an aggressor is coming off worse) then sure but if the continued attrition then leads to them not being able to capitalise/retreating clearly not. All depends on how the war ends.

Most military experts seem in agreement Russia have rendered themselves operationally defunct with the high cost approach they’ve had so far. Maybe they’re wrong and there’ll be huge wins for them soon but their guess is best guess we have right now.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[the hea]

Your last point was what I meant. They are not flexing the lines there. They seem to try to hold on as much as they can but we are not seeing much of successes with it right now with the amount of resources they are pouring in. You would have to ask their capability there.

They are buying themself time to train new troops and arm them, even if Bakhmut and Avdiivka falls they have succesfully limited the Russian advances this winter. Who controlls these 2 cities right now or next month will ultimately have no bearing on the outcome of the war, it's all about delaying the enemy and attritioning him as much as possible. It might not be the best way to defend and a well trained western army would not fight like this but Ukraine can only use the army they have so this might very well be the best tactics for them.

This winter has been all about limiting the Russian advances and prepearing a new army that have the required training and equipment to outmanuever the enemy. How that army performes will be much more important to the outcome of the war than whatever happens in Bakhmut or Avdiivka.

 

[the hea]

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

If someone still had any doubts:


A pretty clear message from Xi and surely no coincidence so soon after Biden's visit in Kiev. They will continue to support Putin, no matter how many humans russia murder in Ukraine. They need Russia as a counterweight to western democracy and for economic reasons (cheap energy and a big market to offload their products).

Joe Biden needs to do a Bush and outright call those two out as the new Axis of Evil. There is simply no other way to put it when Xi already made his bed.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[pierrethesnack]

Joe Biden needs to do a Bush and outright call those two out as the new Axis of Evil.

I don't think that's a great call while trying to strengthen and possibly entice neutral states to join your coalition.

 

[WI_Red]

I don't think that's a great call while trying to strengthen and possibly entice neutral states to join your coalition.

Also, it's never a good idea to ever "do a Bush".....like ever..... unless the murder of 100's of thousands and the decimation of multiple countries is your bag.

 

[Raoul]

Joe Biden needs to do a Bush and outright call those two out as the new Axis of Evil. There is simply no other way to put it when Xi already made his bed.

Good idea, but I doubt he has the would be willing to do it. The fact that Dubya once did also makes it harder to do in the present.

 

[Ragnar123]

Joe Biden needs to do a Bush and outright call those two out as the new Axis of Evil. There is simply no other way to put it when Xi already made his bed.

A bit offtopic here (maybe not, because pressure on China leads to a weak Putin):

Biden needs to gather Europe's leaders and together they need to discuss how they can pressure China. Xi feels invulnerable right now. He took full control of China recently with a demonstration of power. He also knows the west is dependent on China, so he feels like he can do whatever he wants with no consequences.

But the western industry made China rich in the first place and what's stopping us to outsource all our production to other south asian countries?
Why don't we start building new factories in India for example? They have the same population as China, are poor as feck and would love european factories to boost their economy. China has entire cities dedicated to a certain production line because of the western market. I saw a documentary of a town that makes only shoes. You can imagine what happens to that town if western countries stop ordering their shoes.
I don't understand why we don't play that card. We have more leverage on China than the other way around. If we start to outsource and stop ordering from China, they will crash harder than a meteorite.

The only way to keep China in line is threatening their current status. In my opinion, Xi is even more dangerous than Putin in the long run.

 

[TwoSheds]

A bit offtopic here (maybe not, because pressure on China leads to a weak Putin):

Biden needs to gather Europe's leaders and together they need to discuss how they can pressure China. Xi feels invulnerable right now. He took full control of China recently with a demonstration of power. He also knows the west is dependent on China, so he feels like he can do whatever he wants with no consequences.

But the western industry made China rich in the first place and what's stopping us to outsource all our production to other south asian countries?
Why don't we start building new factories in India for example? They have the same population as China, are poor as feck and would love european factories to boost their economy. China has entire cities dedicated to a certain production line because of the western market. I saw a documentary of a town that makes only shoes. You can imagine what happens to that town if western countries stop ordering their shoes.
I don't understand why we don't play that card. We have more leverage on China than the other way around. If we start to outsource and stop ordering from China, they will crash harder than a meteorite.

The only way to keep China in line is threatening their current status. In my opinion, Xi is even more dangerous than Putin in the long run.

Modi is just as much of a despot as Xi. He's just not as powerful. If industry moves it needs to go to places that won't try to take over the world and, even better, to countries that are actually well run and respect the rights of their people.

 

[Ragnar123]

Modi is just as much of a despot as Xi. He's just not as powerful. If industry moves it needs to go to places that won't try to take over the world and, even better, to countries that are actually well run and respect the rights of their people.

Yeah, I didn't mean to make India the new China of course. Just spread the industry on many countries. This way you are not dependent on any country and there is none strong enough to blackmail you. It was one of the biggest mistakes ever to outsource nearly everything to China. But that's a topic for another thread.


By the way, it looks like another open window suicide season for a bunch of oligarchs in Russia again. Looking a current gas and oil prices, Putin will need their money to keep financing his war.



edit: Someone is tired of life it seems.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

OK, so many things to go over here. I'll do my best and hope that it will close down the offtopic part.

A bit offtopic here (maybe not, because pressure on China leads to a weak Putin):

Biden needs to gather Europe's leaders and together they need to discuss how they can pressure China. Xi feels invulnerable right now. He took full control of China recently with a demonstration of power. He also knows the west is dependent on China, so he feels like he can do whatever he wants with no consequences.

But the western industry made China rich in the first place and what's stopping us to outsource all our production to other south asian countries?
Why don't we start building new factories in India for example? They have the same population as China, are poor as feck and would love european factories to boost their economy. China has entire cities dedicated to a certain production line because of the western market. I saw a documentary of a town that makes only shoes. You can imagine what happens to that town if western countries stop ordering their shoes.
I don't understand why we don't play that card. We have more leverage on China than the other way around. If we start to outsource and stop ordering from China, they will crash harder than a meteorite.

For sure Biden needs to take action and is already taking action with a number of European partners to keep their eyes peeled on China. Among some of the signs that Europe is increasingly turning their backs to China, you have the AUKUS alliance, you have the Czech president is set to visit Taiwan soon, you have all 3 Baltic States opening channels with Taiwan as well, a greater number of European politicians have holding a stronger stance against China, Huawai getting banned in a numebr of European countries, TikTok under scrutiny everywhere, etc. As usual, the same obstacles against a cohesive response come from France and Germany. However, recent events of Xi showing up alongside Putin could precipitate further decoupling away from China.

As for India, I ask myself the same question. However, I also feel that question could be extended to both other Asian countries and Central America. I often feel that offering jobs in Central America would 1) allow people to have jobs closer to North America, 2) cut transportation costs of goods to NA if produced in Central America, and 3) cut mass immigration from Central America to the US by a very significant margin because people would enjoy having a job in their home country. In short, there are plenty of countries who can provide manpower and, eventually with time, new customer bases.

The Japanese have moved further away from China since the Senkaku Islands dispute took an uglier turn a decade ago. Despite the occasional talks between Japan and China, the Japanese have not stopped the decoupling at all as more factories went to Southeast Asia. It's up to Western companies to do the same and faster.

The only way to keep China in line is threatening their current status. In my opinion, Xi is even more dangerous than Putin in the long run.

Agree. I have seen worrying parallels between Xi Jinping and Wilhelm II regarding their personalities and how they deal with power. I will not elaborate on that here for the sake of closing the offtopic part, but I will say this though: what I saw yesterday of Xi and Putin reminds me of Germany and a decaying Austria-Hungary in the lead-up to 1914. I didn't think I would have said this a year ago, but Russia is now in Austria-Hungary's shoes.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[Raoul]

I have a hard time believing the Russian dead number. Would be great to get a corroborated source.

 

[Raoul]

Yeah, I didn't mean to make India the new China of course. Just spread the industry on many countries. This way you are not dependent on any country and there is none strong enough to blackmail you. It was one of the biggest mistakes ever to outsource nearly everything to China. But that's a topic for another thread.


By the way, it looks like another open window suicide season for a bunch of oligarchs in Russia again. Looking a current gas and oil prices, Putin will need their money to keep financing his war.



edit: Someone is tired of life it seems.

Girken’s descent from once lauded operative to frustrated vlogger is pretty remarkable. At some point he will say something that gets him mysteriously killed in a freak accident, probably involving a tall building

 

[Ragnar123]

I have a hard time believing the Russian dead number. Would be great to get a corroborated source.

The source is probably the daily update by Ukraine's general staff.

 

[Raoul]

The source is probably the daily update by Ukraine's general staff.

I don’t think they’re going to lie, but they wouldn’t be incentivized to make conservative approximations either. Still a pretty remarkable number and if remotely true, would suggest the Russians are losing people at an unsustainable level that could actually see them collapse and lose a lot of territory should they ever fail to consistently replenish the dead.

 

[calodo2003]

I have a hard time believing the Russian dead number. Would be great to get a corroborated source.

Destruction of the Kalibrs is the more important thing here imo.

 

[Raoul]

OK, so many things to go over here. I'll do my best and hope that it will close down the offtopic part.



For sure Biden needs to take action and is already taking action with a number of European partners to keep their eyes peeled on China. Among some of the signs that Europe is increasingly turning their backs to China, you have the AUKUS alliance, you have the Czech president is set to visit Taiwan soon, you have all 3 Baltic States opening channels with Taiwan as well, a greater number of European politicians have holding a stronger stance against China, Huawai getting banned in a numebr of European countries, TikTok under scrutiny everywhere, etc. As usual, the same obstacles against a cohesive response come from France and Germany. However, recent events of Xi showing up alongside Putin could precipitate further decoupling away from China.

As for India, I ask myself the same question. However, I also feel that question could be extended to both other Asian countries and Central America. I often feel that offering jobs in Central America would 1) allow people to have jobs closer to North America, 2) cut transportation costs of goods to NA if produced in Central America, and 3) cut mass immigration from Central America to the US by a very significant margin because people would enjoy having a job in their home country. In short, there are plenty of countries who can provide manpower and, eventually with time, new customer bases.

The Japanese have moved further away from China since the Senkaku Islands dispute took an uglier turn a decade ago. Despite the occasional talks between Japan and China, the Japanese have not stopped the decoupling at all as more factories went to Southeast Asia. It's up to Western companies to do the same and faster.



Agree. I have seen worrying parallels between Xi Jinping and Wilhelm II regarding their personalities and how they deal with power. I will not elaborate on that here for the sake of closing the offtopic part, but I will say this though: what I saw yesterday of Xi and Putin reminds me of Germany and a decaying Austria-Hungary in the lead-up to 1914. I didn't think I would have said this a year ago, but Russia is now in Austria-Hungary's shoes.

I think China needs Europe too much to estrange them into not doing business with them. Therefore Xi is walking a tightrope between authoritarian solidarity with his public support for Putin, and the realization China’s economic prowess is interdependent on western cooperation.

 

[Ragnar123]

I don’t think they’re going to lie, but they wouldn’t be incentivized to make conservative approximations either. Still a pretty remarkable number and if remotely true, would suggest the Russians are losing people at an unsustainable level that could actually see them collapse and lose a lot of territory should they ever fail to consistently replenish the dead.

I also think they make favorable approximations. If they destroy an APC, they will count a full crew probably, not knowing the exact number of men sitting inside. But they won't be far off, especially if you also count the wounded men who will never fight again.
Russia's losses since the start of their winter offensive are unsustainable indeed. They also started to lose a two-digit number of tanks daily. At this rate, they need a new mobilization wave pretty soon I'd expect.

 

[Real Name]

Any talk about a possible UA offensive somewhere?

 

[stefan92]

Any talk about a possible UA offensive somewhere?

It's likely to begin in April, after a lot of heavy Western equipment arrived, much of it like the Leopard 2 is scheduled for delivery end of this month.

 

[Real Name]

It's likely to begin in April, after a lot of heavy Western equipment arrived, much of it like the Leopard 2 is scheduled for delivery end of this month.

Wonder where will they want to hit first. Maybe Mariupol area while Russians are still occupied with Bakhmut or will be in the future.