Really? Serbia had to sell Milosevic and a bunch of war criminals out in order to regain some form of diplomatic and economic normality after the Kosovo War. If Russia wants normality back and purge Putinism at some point, a number of people will be sold in exchange of a return to full normality.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Russia wants to be a superpower again, they want be an empire again, can't have normality when thats not even what Russia wants.
Just because no one will arrest Putin doesn't mean nothing will happen. On the contrary, it's a big problem for Russia.
First of all, it's a big symbolic step to isolate Russia even further from the free and democratic world. If some people still had illusions the west will tire of this war at some point (and Russia's only hope is betting on exactly this) and relations will get slowly better again like after 2014 because we need their cheap energy, this arrest warrant says otherwise. You can't have good relations with a wanted war criminal, no matter how much time passes. That further isolation will also tank their economy even harder.
Secondly, from now on he needs an assurance of immunity every time he wants to travel abroad. For somebody who thinks he's a tsar, this is a humiliation to ask and confirm every country he plans to visit to give him immunity.
His humiliation is also a humiliation of the russian narrative of the mighty russian empire that the west fear. Putin's arrest warrant showed them, that we see him just as a common criminal and won't forgive any of his war crimes in the past, present or future. Their propagandists will ridicule it of course, but in reality they should be fuming that their leader is on the same level now as bin Laden or Milosevic for example.
And last but not least, his elite and propagandists understand now that even if Putin himself get's an arrest warrant, none of them is save from international justice and they don't have Putins protection and immunity.
And there are probably even way more consequences.
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I pretty much quoted the same thing awhile ago from some news when arguing that the UKR armed forces were far from being decently trained (compared to some of the modern forces) at that moment. We had a few people here saying how they were much further ahead of the likes of RA forces in terms of training and weapons, both of which were not exactly true for most of the war. Some people had far too high expectations of them due to their success in last year's fall counterattacks, where the massive incompetence of the RA forces contributed more than anything else.
There is a silver lining, though, because at least we know the URK forces will have a lot more room to improve in the near future. Imagine if they were decently trained and equipped, yet ended in the current situation for the last few months. It would look far more gloomy for UA.
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What Morty says is true. If there's one thing we know about Putin it's that he's calculating. He is very well aware that the die is cast, and that there can be no normality. He is gambling everything on Russias pivot to the east being successful.
Ok let's watch this space. Nothing will happen.
I'm sure it will be near the top of the list, which will include among many other things, the kidnapping of thousands of Ukrainian kids for placement into "Summer Camps" in Russia. All of this will ultimately be used in a solid genocide case against Putin and his goons.
Greatly underappreciated in my opinion. After Ukraine the most logical aggression would be towards Moldova, because Putin can apply the same logic there to "protect" their people in Transnistria. The whole west needs to understand that we're not only helping Ukraine by sending weapons and money, but also protect all of eastern europe from further russian aggression.
The west must increase its support.
The west must increase its support.
Also to Moldova, to stabilize it. And that is happening as well, for example some months ago Germany delivered some swiss-made Piranha APC to Moldova because it wasn’t possible to get an export permit to send them to Ukraine.
Pretty sure bet that had Putin managed to take all of southern Ukraine, he would've moonwalked right into Moldova, which would've been made even easier by his existing goons in Transnistria.
I wonder if they’ve gone into fertilizer manufacturing in Ukraine yet.
Not with the ongoing conflict with Ukraine; they’re shitting the bed massively there, no chance they would be remotely capable to handle advancements into Moldova and Ukraine all the while holding southern Ukraine.
I’m fully on board with the Moldova was next theory, but that was part of the initial Ukraine will be a cake walk plan. Ukraine holding out, and the prolonged support has scuppered Moldova for now at least thankfully.
That’s what I was referring to. Had he initially taken the south, he would’ve walked into Moldova.
Definitely. All he'd need to do in that scenario would be changing a few thousand soldiers into protestors, unite them with the armed soviet fans in transnistria and the Moldovan government would be easily overthrown.
By the way "Putin" today in Sevastopol. The mask probably itched in the end
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I've been looking at some stuff at the anniversary and the one thing that stuck with me was a Khersonian woman offering sunflower seeds to Russian soldiers. "Put some in your pockets, you're gonna help us grow a sunflower field".
Right, what else? Apology from us for ruining your plans? Funny they still think they have an upper hand in negotiations.
They're just waiting to see who wins the white house next year.
Ukraine has cross party support?
Not in maga
Right now they do, sure. But both leading candidates for the Republicans are negative on further support to Ukraine. And we should know by now just how much the President sets the agenda for his party (see: Never-Trumpers).
Yep, I remember that vividly.
I think even if they win it, it will be very hard to stick to this diplomatic line once they are elected. Imagine the outrage, both nationally and internationally. And the opposition from security advisors, the military, etc.
That aside, they're digging their own grave with this. There will be significant parts of their voter base who will not support that surely, especially those that grew up during the cold war and were brought up to hate communism.
Most Republicans support aid for Ukraine as do most Dems, so any attempt to curtail it by (lets say) a Trump or DeSantis would meet fierce resistance from both Congress and by a large swath of the US public, which is something no new President will want to have to deal with. Moreover, by the time of the next inauguration in Jan of 2025, I expect the Russians will have been sufficiently beaten down and will have probably drawn back by then, which will make the issue a moot point. Putin would be hard pressed to remain in power and in the process obliterate the Russian economy for much longer imo.
I'm not sure when this conflict will end. Russia was written off quite quickly I think. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually do manage to sustain this war for another two years unfortunately. Sanctions, war economy, loss of citizens etc. obviously will take its toll but it seems as if it is very difficult to make any assumptions when it all implodes on Putin.
I see it through the lens of an attrition of war resources and Putin's ability to remain in power whilst indefinitely dragging the Russian economy and male population into the gutter. Zelenskyy has far better conventional weapons, the moral and political will of his population, and a nearly infinite support of NATO political power and military hardware at his disposal. Putin will have to capitulate at some point or else risk his own security at home.
The whole “we will nuke you” threat has gotten really weak now. Seems like that’s all they have left.
That's all they ever had in the first place.
They also lost a lot of armor and equipment yesterday. This can't be sustainable in the long run. Russian losses are insanely high.
Definitely. All he'd need to do in that scenario would be changing a few thousand soldiers into protestors, unite them with the armed soviet fans in transnistria and the Moldovan government would be easily overthrown.
By the way "Putin" today in Sevastopol. The mask probably itched in the end
Looked real enough in that car in Mariupol but who knows. In fairness if he was ill e.g. receiving chemo or whatever and he was immuno-compromised then keeping well away from everybody would have made perfect sense. If he's now getting better there's nothing to say he won't slowly start making some more authentic public appearances.
Yeah, sure.
Another day, another empty thread by that midget Medvedev.
If you bring body doubles, make it less obvious.