Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Confused as to why this wasn’t done months & months ago.
There is a little nitpick about the Polish MiG-29... they need German approval to deliver them to Ukraine, as those are ex-GDR jets. Same situation as with the Polish Leopard 2 in that regard, albeit much less discussed.
 


Good idea to release the footage as it will humiliate the Russians a bit after they initially denied the US story of what happened.

This will only further legitimize the need to arm the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated weapons.
 


Amazing how this was unthinkable a year ago and now it has such broad support. Sometimes it seem like things move far too slowly (and probably that's true) but it's definitely going forward.
 
I think its moved slowly for many reasons but the overwhelming reason is to understand the nature of the response from russia. I believe now its considered that russia are not likely to respond with a nuclear threat.

The other major reason is training, can only assume years of training have been crammed in to months.
 
I think its moved slowly for many reasons but the overwhelming reason is to understand the nature of the response from russia. I believe now its considered that russia are not likely to respond with a nuclear threat.

The other major reason is training, can only assume years of training have been crammed in to months.

I believe Ukraine has Mig-29 among their fleet so not much training needed. I was more a matter of the frog in a warm kettle. They couldn't give airplanes right away due to, as you said, nuclear threat escalation
 
Confused as to why this wasn’t done months & months ago.

Because the West was afraid that Putin will perceive this as an escalation.

Which I always thought it's completely illogical. For two main reasons:
1. Putin does not need any "reasons" to escalate if he wants to. He has been lying since day one, all his "reasons" for starting this war were lies, and he can manufacture many more. Putin is KGB, and for the KGB lies were an essential tool.
2. It is Putin who should be scared that the West will escalate, not the other way around!

On the other hand, Putin knew that our leaders are cowards, and that's one of the main reasons he started this war. He knew the West are complacent and they would seek "peace" no matter what he has done, no matter how many he has killed. If he believed that our leaders are not cowards, he would have never started this war.


Anyway, it is great that NATO finally decided that giving military jets to Ukraine is not an escalation! I hope they will soon decide to give them F-16s, too.
 


I swear that Western pilots should perhaps give Tu-95s the same "courtesy" on the next time those planes get near forbidden airspaces. That Russian pilot alone flies that jet as if he found his credentials in a box of Cracker Jacks.

Good idea to release the footage as it will humiliate the Russians a bit after they initially denied the US story of what happened.

This will only further legitimize the need to arm the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated weapons.

Indeed. Anyone pedalling talking points from the Kremlin now and after watching this should be outright called out as a total idiot.
 
Some quotes from ex-cons who joined Wagner.

He cited limited prospects available in Russia’s civilian economy as pushing him towards returning to Wagner.

“People work hard without days off for 12-14 hours a day, and at best they earn 50-60,000 roubles ($672-$806) a month,” said Yermakov, who told Reuters he has two small daughters. “I will return to the (Wagner) company and I will definitely be able to earn 150,000 roubles ($2,000) a month.”
For others, a return to Wagner offers an alternative to sinking back into a life of crime. Kuzhelev, who has spent almost seven of his 29 years in prison, told Reuters that he hoped that service in Wagner would enable his young daughter to build a career in future, without the stigma of her father’s criminal past.

“My daughter, when she grows up, can go on to study banking, or attend the police academy,” said Kuzhelev. “And she will not have problems because her father was in prison. Isn't that motivation? Of course it is.”
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/
 


Did the CCP think they would not be found out?

Now that it is in the open, I say it's time for the US to arm China's democratic neighbors (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) with top quality hardware, especially with more Tomahawk missiles and even F-35s.
 
Because the West was afraid that Putin will perceive this as an escalation.

Which I always thought it's completely illogical. For two main reasons:
1. Putin does not need any "reasons" to escalate if he wants to. He has been lying since day one, all his "reasons" for starting this war were lies, and he can manufacture many more. Putin is KGB, and for the KGB lies were an essential tool.
2. It is Putin who should be scared that the West will escalate, not the other way around!

On the other hand, Putin knew that our leaders are cowards, and that's one of the main reasons he started this war. He knew the West are complacent and they would seek "peace" no matter what he has done, no matter how many he has killed. If he believed that our leaders are not cowards, he would have never started this war.


Anyway, it is great that NATO finally decided that giving military jets to Ukraine is not an escalation! I hope they will soon decide to give them F-16s, too.
The West is not one political body. You are simplifying the many events and the context which led to all this. In each situation there is tug of interests. The Brits and the French wanted to intervene in Syria, but then Obama pulled out. At other stages it was the Americans taking a harder line while the French wanting to pursue more diplomacy. Italy didn't want to do anything, and Poland wants to premeditatively nuke Moscow. There were many points leading to the invasion where we could have done differently to change Putins calculation, but putting it down to 'our leaders are cowards' is not very precise at all.

A group of liberal democracies working together is never going to be streamlined and efficient. The few times we actually manage to act quickly, you can get outcomes ranging from Yugoslavia to Libya, and Iraq. No politician in a liberal democracy today has a mandate to rush into a dangerous conflict which isn't a direct threat to its existence without exhausting all, and I mean all, other options. And that's a good thing.
 
One year ago one of the biggest crimes in this war happened. I can't imagine how many war crimes russia managed to cover up in Mariupol alone. The world must never forget this.
 
Did the CCP think they would not be found out?

Now that it is in the open, I say it's time for the US to arm China's democratic neighbors (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) with top quality hardware, especially with more Tomahawk missiles and even F-35s.

They already have, Japan and South Korea (and Singapore) purchased the F-35.

I’m sure the American’s and everyone else expected the Chinese to back the Russians in some regard. The fact it’s still so clandestine and shit is a massive victory for the West.
 


Really hope we will finally see Ukraine get fighter jets after a year of rumours.
 


Every action against the west is now a heroic act over there. Stalin would be proud.
 


Really hope we will finally see Ukraine get fighter jets after a year of rumours.


I want this too, but I’m genuinely unsure how much effect they will have. Ukraine has nothing approaching air superiority, so they won’t be sitting there destroying Russian armour with gay abandon.
 


Really hope we will finally see Ukraine get fighter jets after a year of rumours.


So do I.
The only real advantage of the Mig 29 is that Ukrainian pilots would already know how to fly the jet, assuming the weapons systems are the same. They are mainly air to air aircraft with not that much air to ground capability.
But as I expected, the initial no by the US is in the process of changing.
 
I want this too, but I’m genuinely unsure how much effect they will have. Ukraine has nothing approaching air superiority, so they won’t be sitting there destroying Russian armour with gay abandon.

Air superiority is not likely to ever be on the cards, but the air force still appears to be fairly active and used from a stand-off role, along with taking down missiles/drones. They've been able to employ these JDAM guided bombs, which need to be dropped from high altitude within around 70km.
 
So do I.
The only real advantage of the Mig 29 is that Ukrainian pilots would already know how to fly the jet, assuming the weapons systems are the same. They are mainly air to air aircraft with not that much air to ground capability.
But as I expected, the initial no by the US is in the process of changing.
Winston Churchill once famously observed that Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else
 
Air superiority is not likely to ever be on the cards, but the air force still appears to be fairly active and used from a stand-off role, along with taking down missiles/drones. They've been able to employ these JDAM guided bombs, which need to be dropped from high altitude within around 70km.

I hope you’re right.
 
So, Erdogan will ratify Finland into NATO, Hungary say they will ratify also.

For some reason i trust Orban even less than Erdogan, hope he doesn't find a last-minute excuse to delay.