Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It looks like Bakhmut stabilized a bit after Russians made bigger advances last week. In the last days, the russians are again only crawling forward with huge losses. They took the eastern part of the town, but now the river is a great holding position. UA sent probably considerable reinforcements. At this point, no one can really predict how long the heroic defend can hold there. But the longer they hold, the more men, equipment and armor Russia loses and can't use for other attacks. And the kill/death ratio there is also probably the most favorable of all fronts.


Its just a bizarre hill to die on (literally) for the Russians. Putin is so desperate for a win that he's actually preventing his forces from making gains elsewhere.
 
Its just a bizarre hill to die on (literally) for the Russians. Putin is so desperate for a win that he's actually preventing his forces from making gains elsewhere.
Looks like it's a slow game over with winter almost over. Prigozhyn probably f*cked himself after accusing Shoigu of betreyal. There's absolutely no motivation from Putin who still values Shoigu in helping Prigozhyn who's just another oligarch that probably will be thrown under the bus by FSB. After death they'll just use his assets in another atempt to rebuild some part of invasion force. If I was oligarchs still living there, I'd think about fleeing the country. This year could be uglier as Russia will canibalize itself further.

Nothing for sure, but Girkin's 100 years Russian cycle theory could slowly got closer to reality now. Can't seriously believe China is looking at this whole mess and thinking - 'It's a great idea to support Russia, as their leaders clearly know what they're doing.'
 
Zhukov is the reason Germany didn't conquer the Soviet Union (okay slight exaggeration). He was famously callous about losses, but he was not a human wave general. He was more about Deep Battle/Deep Operation.
I'm not questioning the results he achieved but the methods he used to. No military that gives a feck about the life of its soldiers should operate the way the Red Army did.

In my eyes Ukraine would lose the moral high ground they rightfully have in this conflict if they started showing the same ignorance towards the life of their soldiers and I personally wouldn't like to support such a military any longer.
 
I get the issue with his details but the conclusion is right. There is no logical argument for it to have been anyone but the US.

You're gunna have to elaborate on the logic of that a tad, they'd already destroyed the thing diplomatically.
 
Fantastic interview with Dmytro Kotsiubailo. A guy who volunteered to fight Russian invasion in 2014 and rose to a battalion commander in the last year. His funeral was attended by Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi, Sanna Marin, among a few thousand others.

https://ukrainefrontlines.com/opini...-hero-of-ukraine-dmytro-kotsiubailo-da-vinci/

Thanks for this, indeed an amazing interview. This guy was a true hero. Here are some photos and videos of his funeral:



It seems, the russians are storming Bakhmut again with everything they have. Yesterday they lost again over a thousand men according to ua defense. Freaking insanity from the russian side. At this rate, they need a new mobilization wave in a couple of months probably.

 
It seems, the russians are storming Bakhmut again with everything they have. Yesterday they lost again over a thousand men according to ua defense. Freaking insanity from the russian side. At this rate, they need a new mobilization wave in a couple of months probably.

DW News are reporting that the wagner group have announced some kind of pause in Bakhmut and are speculating that Putin is worried about the mercenaries long term intentions. Should I just stop watching DW news?


Okay, now they are saying it's escalated again.
 
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They seem to be taking it very seriously. Would be a big movement if it reached Euromaidan levels.

That aside, the last thing Russia should be thinking about is attacking yet another country. From the information available it seems as if they already struggle to produce ammunition for the fronts they already have.
In both Maidans there was a close to 50/50 split in general population about what’s happening (be it the support for Yuschenko/Yanukovich or the support for Euro integration/closer ties with Russia). Georgian population isn’t there yet — while the ruling party, the Georgian Dream, probably doesn’t have the support of the majority of country’s population, all the opposition combined has even less (significantly) support.

Maidan wasn’t the reason behind the change — it was its cause. In Georgia they do have the cause but the population isn’t ready.
 
Fantastic interview with Dmytro Kotsiubailo. A guy who volunteered to fight Russian invasion in 2014 and rose to a battalion commander in the last year. His funeral was attended by Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi, Sanna Marin, among a few thousand others.

https://ukrainefrontlines.com/opini...-hero-of-ukraine-dmytro-kotsiubailo-da-vinci/
Sanna Marin was not there for Dmytro Kotsiubailo. She was not there for Ukraine either. She was there because we have elections in couple of weeks. Rather disgusting that she uses anything for her political gain.
 
Maidan wasn’t the reason behind the change — it was its cause. In Georgia they do have the cause but the population isn’t ready.

Sorry but what do you mean by this? The reason behind something IS the cause? Which means I’ve misunderstood you somewhere..
 
DW News are reporting that the wagner group have announced some kind of pause in Bakhmut and are speculating that Putin is worried about the mercenaries long term intentions. Should I just stop watching DW news?


Okay, now they are saying it's escalated again.

Whether this is some kind of deliberate ploy by Putin, or whether it’s simply not possible logistically for Russia to keep replacing Wagner’s losses in Bakhmut is really difficult to know. I’d err towards the latter. It’s been 6 or 8 months since Russia has gained any kind of significant town/city, I can’t believe he’d give up the possibility of a rare piece of good news.
 
Sorry but what do you mean by this? The reason behind something IS the cause? Which means I’ve misunderstood you somewhere..
Sorry, it's my poor English, I fecked up the connotations in translation.

There's an event that triggers something and then there're the underlying reasons behind this happening. Maidan wasn't really the reason behind what happened next but it acted as a catalyst — but if Ukraine didn't already have a significant support for Eurointegration, growing hate for Yanukovich and the experience of 2004, nothing would've happened.

In Georgia we have an event that can be compared to Maidan but the society isn't really ready for the same change, so it won't work like it would in Ukraine. At least in my opinion & in opinion of most experts on Georgian politics that I've been listening too lately.
 
Sorry, it's my poor English, I fecked up the connotations in translation.

There's an event that triggers something and then there're the underlying reasons behind this happening. Maidan wasn't really the reason behind what happened next but it acted as a catalyst — but if Ukraine didn't already have a significant support for Eurointegration, growing hate for Yanukovich and the experience of 2004, nothing would've happened.

In Georgia we have an event that can be compared to Maidan but the society isn't really ready for the same change, so it won't work like it would in Ukraine. At least in my opinion & in opinion of most experts on Georgian politics that I've been listening too lately.

Ok, thanks. I don’t know enough about Georgian politics to really comment, other than thinking they probably are more pro-democracy/pro-European than the Stan countries around them, but certainly less than Ukraine:
 
Looks like Zelenskyy has a new opponent for the next election :wenger:



Also I find it funny how he says it "I run for president...of Ukraine". I bet Putin's eye twitched there for a second :lol:
I also believe that Putin will get rid of him as soon as he doesn't need his Wagners as minced meat anymore.
 
Interesting choice of flight path. I have never seen something like this before.

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Interesting choice of flight path. I have never seen something like this before.
I admit I don't follow such things, but why is it unusual? I would expect it to be pretty normal to have a patrol flight along the Russian border?
 
I admit I don't follow such things, but why is it unusual? I would expect it to be pretty normal to have a patrol flight along the Russian border?
I have never heard of a US Airforce plane flying this deep into the Gulf of Finland before, let a lone a strategic bomber and heading straight towards St Petersburg. It flew very close to the Russian Island of Hogland and can't have been many km's away from the Russian border when it turned south.
 
I have never heard of a US Airforce plane flying this deep into the Gulf of Finland before, let a lone a strategic bomber and heading straight towards St Petersburg. It flew very close to the Russian Island of Hogland and can't have been many km's away from the Russian border when it turned south.
This made me curious and I googled a bit... it looks like this route is sometimes used, but not regularly. Here a report from 2021 about two B-1B on essentially the same route: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...in-provocative-show-of-force/?sh=1a5842ad20ac

I also remember an incident a few weeks ago where Russia started jets to intercept a German reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea, near Kaliningrad as well as reports about Sweden and Germany starting fighters as well to intercept Russian planes.

So patrol flights (and reactions to it) over the Baltic Sea definitely are common, but the involvement of US strategic bombers indeed seems to be rare.
 
This made me curious and I googled a bit... it looks like this route is sometimes used, but not regularly. Here a report from 2021 about two B-1B on essentially the same route: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...in-provocative-show-of-force/?sh=1a5842ad20ac

I also remember an incident a few weeks ago where Russia started jets to intercept a German reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea, near Kaliningrad as well as reports about Sweden and Germany starting fighters as well to intercept Russian planes.

So patrol flights (and reactions to it) over the Baltic Sea definitely are common, but the involvement of US strategic bombers indeed seems to be rare.

Yeah, it was probably to remind Putin that he is not the only one who can threaten. If you keep silent long enough, people start to forget about you. From time to time, you have to flex your muscles.
 
This made me curious and I googled a bit... it looks like this route is sometimes used, but not regularly. Here a report from 2021 about two B-1B on essentially the same route: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...in-provocative-show-of-force/?sh=1a5842ad20ac

I also remember an incident a few weeks ago where Russia started jets to intercept a German reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea, near Kaliningrad as well as reports about Sweden and Germany starting fighters as well to intercept Russian planes.

So patrol flights (and reactions to it) over the Baltic Sea definitely are common, but the involvement of US strategic bombers indeed seems to be rare.
Yes flights over the Baltic sea are common as is flights in the air space of the Baltic countries. But flights with US aircrafts in the Gulf of Finland like yesterday is something I can't remember seeing before.

This shows just how close they where from entering Russian air space.

 
Yes flights over the Baltic sea are common as is flights in the air space of the Baltic countries. But flights with US aircrafts in the Gulf of Finland like yesterday is something I can't remember seeing before.

This shows just how close they where from entering Russian air space.



Gotta say it was about time that the US sends the message across for the number of times I've read about an isolated Tu-95 flying close to Western airspaces.
 
Gotta say it was about time that the US sends the message across for the number of times I've read about an isolated Tu-95 flying close to Western airspaces.
To be honest I feel like it's more important to send the message that nothing gets unnoticed than to do bomber patrol flights. But luckily NATO does both and at least the German Luftwaffe reports quite regularly when it's meeting Russian planes that are flying without transponders or flight plan in the area. Some examples from recent weeks:



 


Some murmurs about ukrainians in Nova Kakhovka, could be gun jumping from these clips, was a battle few days ago there though:

 


Some murmurs about ukrainians in Nova Kakhovka, could be gun jumping from these clips, was a battle few days ago there though:



There are daily reconnaissance missions across the Dnipro. It's nothing unusual. They try to find concentration of menpower, artillery systems and probe the defense at the same time.