Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
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At this point it's just a pointless murder of people, because everyone sees after one year of war, that Russia achieves the exact opposite with their terrorism. They still don't understand that every new missile just strengthens Ukraine's resolve to win this war. Every new destroyed house and killed civilian just makes them hate and fight russia even more.
 
Did Russians say Ukraine is not ready for negotiations and the west is escalating the war before this attack?
 
This whole war is just surreal. Imagine you stop in the middle of a firefight to prove your moral point and then continue shooting each other.



Here is the translation from the comments:

RU: "Brother, I at least came here to make things right" UA: "(unintelligible) So you came to my house to make things right? You came to my house, where there are my rules, to tell me how to live? I'm in my home, not in yours, not in your kitchen, room, I'm not telling you where to shit and throw the trash, You're trying to tell me how to eat, how to shit. I'm at home, you're not." RU: "Yeah, I understand where you're coming from, but if the people (unintelligible, explosion) in the neighboring cities..." UA: "fecking think about it, you're living in a (apartment block), go to your neighbor, beat him up saying "You're eating wrong, bitch. And your fecking kitchen is now mine. Just because you're eating wrong". Is that fecking normal?" RU: "Well, i can kinda understand you see it..." UA: "Well that's how I see it all. You fecking came to us to make things right your way" RU: "unintelligible, swearing Shut your fecking face up (?). What would you do yourself (in our place?)" UA: "Don't worry, we can beat up those that need it, we don't shy away from it." RU: "(unintelligible)" UA: "And would've done the same to Yanukovich, but the fecker escaped"
 
Russia launched 6 nuclear-capable hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during the night which can't be intercepted by UA anti air defense. But considering they have only a few dozens of them, it looks like desperation at this point. Provided that the stock estimate is correct of course.
 
Raoul said:
This conflict could spread quickly if other ex Soviet nations have similar uprisings.
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The whole thing/area feels like a tinderbox ready to explode at any time. We’ve seen how easily countries get dragged into world wars. It’s really worrying.
 
Ukrainian Air Force just tweeted they need F-16s.

Why have former Soviet countries, etc. not supplied them with 4th or 4.5th generation former Soviet or Russian planes? There has to be a decent multi-role aircraft in there that can do what the F-16 does.
 
The Firestarter said:
How did this happen in Georgia ? They were very pro-nato, I'd expect the brief war they had with Russia to only intensify this.
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4bars said:
How is that possible? If they vote them maybe not a majority but a big portion must be prorussian
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The Georgian Dream is not openly pro-Russian and they do a great job of confusing everyone just about enough to gain advantage. That includes a few politicians leaving the party to create an "opposing one" that actually introduced the foreign agent law into existence. They are also incredibly wealthy — they're being backed by Georgia's wealthiest man in Ivanishvili (Russian-affiliated oligarch) — and their economical policies that included better trade relationships with Russia did quite well (simply because Georgia can't really exist without Russian import at the moment).

And their main opposition — Saakashvili and his followers — have made way too much feck ups to be popular enough to overthrow the Georgian Dream (he did travel to Georgia right before the elections in a Navalny-esque move, trying to create enough momentum to swing the result, but ended up getting arrested... he's now slowly dying, apparently, from a whole bunch of weird illnesses, being held in a secured hospital).

From my limited personal experience the population isn't pro-Russian in general and there's certainly an overwhelming amount of support for Ukraine on the ground level — as @The Firestarter said, the invasion did resonate with their own experience and it's important to note that for Georgians it wasn't a brief war. Just like for Ukrainians the war started not in 2022, but in 2014, for Georgians the 2008 war is still in many ways on-going — they consider 20% of their territory to be presently occupied by Russia (the "independent" republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and people near the border keep disappearing until this day.
 
FYI:



Weird thing is that I just watched All Quiet on the Western Front (the new one) a couple of days ago. The poor guy Matsievsky really reminds me of Stanislaus "Kat" Katczinsky.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Russia launched 6 nuclear-capable hypersonic Kinzhal missiles during the night which can't be intercepted by UA anti air defense. But considering they have only a few dozens of them, it looks like desperation at this point. Provided that the stock estimate is correct of course.
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Yeah, Russia really can't afford in every sense of the word to be firing those at Ukraine. Plus America will be waiting patiently for one of them to fail. They've already got their hands on a few unexploded cruise missiles.
 
harms said:
The Georgian Dream is not openly pro-Russian and they do a great job of confusing everyone just about enough to gain advantage. That includes a few politicians leaving the party to create an "opposing one" that actually introduced the foreign agent law into existence. They are also incredibly wealthy — they're being backed by Georgia's wealthiest man in Ivanishvili (Russian-affiliated oligarch) — and their economical policies that included better trade relationships with Russia did quite well (simply because Georgia can't really exist without Russian import at the moment).

And their main opposition — Saakashvili and his followers — have made way too much feck ups to be popular enough to overthrow the Georgian Dream (he did travel to Georgia right before the elections in a Navalny-esque move, trying to create enough momentum to swing the result, but ended up getting arrested... he's now slowly dying, apparently, from a whole bunch of weird illnesses, being held in a secured hospital).

From my limited personal experience the population isn't pro-Russian in general and there's certainly an overwhelming amount of support for Ukraine on the ground level — as @The Firestarter said, the invasion did resonate with their own experience and it's important to note that for Georgians it wasn't a brief war. Just like for Ukrainians the war started not in 2022, but in 2014, for Georgians the 2008 war is still in many ways on-going — they consider 20% of their territory to be presently occupied by Russia (the "independent" republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia) and people near the border keep disappearing until this day.
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But if you know that, lots of georgians would know that an as much the main opposition fecked up, if you are anti russian, you would not vote Georgian Dream. At least georgians should not give a feck of anti or pro russia for this to work and because the 2008 conflict, I don't see that possible. it should be a strong or anti russian or pro russian sentiment depending on your affiliation.

As you said, might be that they do a great job missleading
 
4bars said:
But if you know that, lots of georgians would know that an as much the main opposition fecked up, if you are anti russian, you would not vote Georgian Dream. At least georgians should not give a feck of anti or pro russia for this to work and because the 2008 conflict, I don't see that possible. it should be a strong or anti russian or pro russian sentiment depending on your affiliation.

As you said, might be that they do a great job missleading
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It's really messy and it's way more nuanced and complicated than it is in my 2 paragraph-long explanation. The connection between the Georgian Dream and Russia isn't (or wasn't) extremely obvious and the extent of Russia's influence on it is certainly debatable*. They also make pro-Western (as in confirming the goal to join Europe/NATO) statements from time to time when it suits them — even though many consider them to be misleading if not outright false. Also, being pro- or anti-Russian isn't the only criteria that Georgians are basing their votes on — especially when you consider that the current government was voted in place before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (I'd imagine that it will play a much bigger role from now on).

* it became a bit clearer since the beginning of the invasion. If the unwillingness to support the sanctions and openly state its support for Ukraine can be kinda understandable as Georgia is extremely dependent on Russia economically, things line this "foreign agent" law or the regular cases of them denying the entry to Russian anti-Putin politics, journalists & activists (while a regular Russian citizen still doesn't need a visa to entry Georgia and they allow in almost anyone who isn't in violation with their laws) seem to suggest a way closer connection than most previously thought.
 
harms said:
It's really messy and it's way more nuanced and complicated than it is in my 2 paragraph-long explanation. The connection between the Georgian Dream and Russia isn't (or wasn't) extremely obvious and the extent of Russia's influence on it is certainly debatable*. They also make pro-Western (as in confirming the goal to join Europe/NATO) statements from time to time when it suits them — even though many consider them to be misleading if not outright false. Also, being pro- or anti-Russian isn't the only criteria that Georgians are basing their votes on — especially when you consider that the current government was voted in place before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (I'd imagine that it will play a much bigger role from now on).

* it became a bit clearer since the beginning of the invasion. If the unwillingness to support the sanctions and openly state its support for Ukraine can be kinda understandable as Georgia is extremely dependent on Russia economically, things line this "foreign agent" law or the regular cases of them denying the entry to Russian anti-Putin politics, journalists & activists (while a regular Russian citizen still doesn't need a visa to entry Georgia and they allow in almost anyone who isn't in violation with their laws) seem to suggest a way closer connection than most previously thought.
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That make sense. As you said, next elections, being pro or anti russian probably will have a bigger weight on the vote decision

Thanks for the explanation!
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
FYI:



Weird thing is that I just watched All Quiet on the Western Front (the new one) a couple of days ago. The poor guy Matsievsky really reminds me of Stanislaus "Kat" Katczinsky.
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This guy will have a few streets and monuments named after him following the war.
 
Raoul said:
Nevermind that Hersh is himself not a reliable source as well.
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Also apply Occam's razor - the more simple explanation for something is usually the right one, and the scenario Hersh created is just unnecessarily large.
 


Deary me,
The twitter handle does make me laugh.. MFA in Crimea.. so Crimea is Ukranian?:)
 
Stactix said:


Deary me,
The twitter handle does make me laugh.. MFA in Crimea.. so Crimea is Ukranian?:)
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They seem to be taking it very seriously. Would be a big movement if it reached Euromaidan levels.

That aside, the last thing Russia should be thinking about is attacking yet another country. From the information available it seems as if they already struggle to produce ammunition for the fronts they already have.
 
It looks like Bakhmut stabilized a bit after Russians made bigger advances last week. In the last days, the russians are again only crawling forward with huge losses. They took the eastern part of the town, but now the river is a great holding position. UA sent probably considerable reinforcements. At this point, no one can really predict how long the heroic defend can hold there. But the longer they hold, the more men, equipment and armor Russia loses and can't use for other attacks. And the kill/death ratio there is also probably the most favorable of all fronts.
 
Ragnar123 said:
It looks like Bakhmut stabilized a bit after Russians made bigger advances last week. In the last days, the russians are again only crawling forward with huge losses. They took the eastern part of the town, but now the river is a great holding position. UA sent probably considerable reinforcements. At this point, no one can really predict how long the heroic defend can hold there. But the longer they hold, the more men, equipment and armor Russia loses and can't use for other attacks.
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If it's Stalingrad, I hope the Ukrainians have an Operation Uranus prepared. I'm not sure they have a Zhukov though.
 
nimic said:
If it's Stalingrad, I hope the Ukrainians have an Operation Uranus prepared. I'm not sure they have a Zhukov though.
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I hope they don't. Zhukov's reckless tactics are the cause for millions and millions of dead Red Army soldiers and they are the prototype for the comparable human wave attacks the Russians try today.
 
stefan92 said:
I hope they don't. Zhukov's reckless tactics are the cause for millions and millions of dead Red Army soldiers and they are the prototype for the comparable human wave attacks the Russians try today.
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Zhukov is the reason Germany didn't conquer the Soviet Union (okay slight exaggeration). He was famously callous about losses, but he was not a human wave general. He was more about Deep Battle/Deep Operation.
 
nimic said:
If it's Stalingrad, I hope the Ukrainians have an Operation Uranus prepared. I'm not sure they have a Zhukov though.
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What they need instead is another George Patton, repeating the incredible feat of mobilizing entire divisions (especially armored ones) in the middle of winter to relieve Bastogne.
 
White House officials on the Moldova situation:

WashingtonCNN —
The US intelligence community believes that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence are planning to stage protests in Moldova to try to foment a manufactured insurrection against the Moldovan government, with the ultimate goal of seeing a more pro-Russia administration installed there, White House officials said Friday.

The US believes that Russia is working to weaken the Moldovan government which is seeking closer ties with the European Union, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said, The US is also seeing signs that Russian government-linked actors could provide training to anti-government demonstrators in Moldova. The country’s capital, Chisinau, has been rocked by anti-government protests in recent weeks, largely organized by Moldova’s Russia-friendly Shor Party.

The Biden administraiton also believes that Moscow is working to sow disinformation about Moldova’s overall stability. One example was the Russian Ministry of Defense’s claim last month that Ukraine has been planning to invade Transnistria, Moldova’s Moscow-backed separatist region. US officials said those allegations are “unfounded, false, and create baseless alarm.”
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https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/10/politics/us-russia-moldova-intelligence/index.html
 
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