Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It’s unbelievable how much they fcuk things up and don’t seem to learn. It seems an interim six problem with the Russian military. In built rules and dogma getting in the way of people with actual knowledge and experience on the ground.
It probably doesn't help that they've lost a whole lot of people who actually have experience either.
 
It’s unbelievable how much they fcuk things up and don’t seem to learn. It seems an interim six problem with the Russian military. In built rules and dogma getting in the way of people with actual knowledge and experience on the ground.
Russia doesn't have an NCO level in their military hierarchy, thus the flow of orders is top down with no ability to change anything at the tactical level. That's a major reason why so many Russian generals have been killed as they needed to be close to the front lines to be able to effectuate any order changes in as close to real time as possible.
 
I think it is extremely top down and people aren't encouraged to make their own thoughts. Add to that they think pretty short term oriented to be able to present some achievements and the whole structure seems to be highly detrimental to the war effort. They are always just thinking about the next objective and not how they continue from there on. And the punishment of a lack of success fits in perfectly with that. People are concerned with their own safety so they just report what their superiors want to here meaning that the upwards flow of information is highly flawed. On that basis, the higher ups again make decisions they enforce on their subordinates ruthlessly. If you speak up, you're a traitor.

When you see that from a macro perspective, it is just very difficult to imagine how they could go out of this conflict as a victor. They may very well take Bachmut and score other points victories once in a while but at what cost? Can they really keep up that kind of attrition forever, especially with a heavily weakened economy that is going to struggle even more in the future to provide replenishments? A bit like driving at full speed when your tank is already empty and you don't know where the next gas station is, just to impress the girl sitting next to you.
No NCO level-equivalent in their military forces means everything is always & only top down.
 
Russia doesn't have an NCO level in their military hierarchy, thus the flow of orders is top down with no ability to change anything at the tactical level. That's a major reason why so many Russian generals have been killed as they needed to be close to the front lines to be able to effectuate any order changes in as close to real time as possible.

I’m unsure whether that was to do with insecure communication/signals, or because of the reason you’ve given. Possibly both. Either way, for the supposed second most powerful army on earth it’s an abysmal situation to find themselves in.
 
I’m unsure whether that was to do with insecure communication/signals, or because of the reason you’ve given. Possibly both. Either way, for the supposed second most powerful army on earth it’s an abysmal situation to find themselves in.
Definitely both.
 
A man is on a street corner in Moscow yelling “The president is an idiot “

Police surround him and handcuff him. They say, “It is illegal to insult President Putin.”

He says, “You don’t understand I mean the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, he is the one I was insulting. “

The police captain says, “You can’t fool us, everyone knows who the idiot is.”
 
A man is on a street corner in Moscow yelling “The president is an idiot “

Police surround him and handcuff him. They say, “It is illegal to insult President Putin.”

He says, “You don’t understand I mean the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, he is the one I was insulting. “

The police captain says, “You can’t fool us, everyone knows who the idiot is.”
:lol: I love Russian jokes
 
A man is on a street corner in Moscow yelling “The president is an idiot “

Police surround him and handcuff him. They say, “It is illegal to insult President Putin.”

He says, “You don’t understand I mean the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, he is the one I was insulting. “

The police captain says, “You can’t fool us, everyone knows who the idiot is.”

Very good! Here is another:



A Russian wakes from a 13 month coma, and being Russian, immediately goes to get a shot of vodka at the local pub. While there he gets into a discussion with another Russian and asks him about the latest news. The other Russian tells him "We are at war with NATO. But we are winning on all fronts."

"How many casualties have we taken?" the first guy asks.

"110,000 by the latest count" The second guy answers.

"And NATO?"

"Oh, NATO hasn't arrived yet"
 

This is another reason why Russia should still be labelled as pariah for as long as war criminals are not put on a platter for the ICC at The Hague. Nothing will ever be satisfactory until Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, Gerasimov, Prizoghin, and many more get arrested and deported to the Netherlands.

For the record, then Serbia-and-Montenegro were given the same conditions about ditching Milosevic and a number of other war criminals prior to any return to some kind of normality after the Kosovo War.
 
At least it looked like the POW didn’t suffer. What an absolutely abhorrent video that is though.

This is another reason why Russia should still be labelled as pariah for as long as war criminals are not put on a platter for the ICC at The Hague. Nothing will ever be satisfactory until Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, Gerasimov, Prizoghin, and many more get arrested and deported to the Netherlands.

Now imagine how many such scenes happen there daily without anyone holding a camera or releasing the footage. I can't wait for The Hague to start working on all the atrocities russians do and did in Ukraine. I don't believe they will ever get arrested, because nobody will actually invade russia. But the goal should be, that those people can never set a foot outside of russia again for fear of being arrested and extradited immediately. Let those fecks enjoy the rest of their lives as wanted war criminals, who can only travel to north korea and some corrupt african countries. The days in italian mansions on the beach are gone forever.

But they also did Ukraine a favor releasing this video. Now they have a new martyr they look up to and take strength from. Such videos show, why Russia already lost this war. Ukranians will rather die standing on their own feet, than live on their knees with Kreml as their master.
 
Ukranians will rather die standing on their own feet, than live on their knees with Kreml as their master.

“Prefiero morir de pie, a vivir arrodillado” Great phrase, and entirely correctly applied here.
 
Now imagine how many such scenes happen there daily without anyone holding a camera or releasing the footage. I can't wait for The Hague to start working on all the atrocities russians do and did in Ukraine. I don't believe they will ever get arrested, because nobody will actually invade russia. But the goal should be, that those people can never set a foot outside of russia again for fear of being arrested and extradited immediately. Let those fecks enjoy the rest of their lives as wanted war criminals, who can only travel to north korea and some corrupt african countries. The days in italian mansions on the beach are gone forever.

But they also did Ukraine a favor releasing this video. Now they have a new martyr they look up to and take strength from. Such videos show, why Russia already lost this war. Ukranians will rather die standing on their own feet, than live on their knees with Kreml as their master.
I’m pretty sure that the legal work of documenting the evidence for the (unlikely) future process is already happening.
 


In other words: "Drop your support for Taiwan or we'll help Putin."
China is in a difficult position. On the one hand, they need Russia as a counterweight to Nato. It's in their interest that Russia doesn't lose this war. On the other hand, they need trade relations with the west if they don't want to lose their wealth and become a third world country. And the west showed right now, that it can make difficult decisions. Putin also thought europe is far to dependend on his energy to support Ukraine seriously and oh boy, was he wrong.
In my opinion, China will test their limits in the near future and watch how the west reacts. We need to stand firm and make them clear, we don't fear losing relations to them. Every production they have can be outsourced to other countries. This will take time and cost a lot of money of course, but it's possible. China needs to understand, that they risk their entire economy and world status if they openly support Russia.
 
US Air Force General confirmes that extended range JDAMs are now operational in Ukraine.

"Recently, we've just gotten some precision munitions [to Ukraine] that had some extended range and go a little bit further than the gravity drop bomb and has precision [guidance]," Hecker said. "That's a recent capability that we were able to give them probably in the last three weeks."

Gen. Hecker further confirmed to The War Zone that he was specifically speaking about the JDAM-ER.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine
 
The feck?

WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.

The explosives were most likely planted with the help of experienced divers who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services, U.S. officials who have reviewed the new intelligence said."

 
If true, it is scary that a non-government group has the resources to do that kind of sabotage. I am skeptical though to this intel.
The CIA intentionally telling the NYT (which is what this is) that an independent group did it, actually makes me more suspicious that the US govt was involved. Not in Seymour Hersh's telling because that was an absurd little tale (half the Norwegian navy was in on it by the end), but some other way.
 
If true, it is scary that a non-government group has the resources to do that kind of sabotage. I am skeptical though to this intel.
I feel like a lot of people overestimate the resources needed to pull this off.

Yes, you need professional industrial diving equipment and experience, but the Baltic Sea is basically an oversized lake, it's not an open ocean where you would need submarines etc to do this.
 
If true, it is scary that a non-government group has the resources to do that kind of sabotage. I am skeptical though to this intel.

Yeah, A better lie would be that Russia did it but with this, you can only think that US did it (I don't think any european country would attack a german's interest infrastructure).
But maybe is what they are looking for. Let the world know that it had been them with an absurd lie, but officially not being able to accuse them as it had been an non governmental organization from a non top country at war with capabilities to destroy an infrastructure deep in the middle of the baltic sea
 
I'm curious though, doesn't this warrant a criminal investigation it civilians did this?
 
I'm curious though, doesn't this warrant a criminal investigation it civilians did this?
It has been treated as one from the first day (at least in Germany). The federal police (Bundeskriminalamt/BKA) is performing the investigation on order of the federal public prosecutor.
 
Up to 30,000 Russian casualties in Bakhmut.

Between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded in the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut since it began last summer, Western officials say.

The epic nature of the battle is out of all proportion to Bakhmut's strategic significance, they add.
But after more than six months of grinding, horrific fighting, the future of Bakhmut still hangs in the balance.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64880268
 
Yeah, A better lie would be that Russia did it but with this, you can only think that US did it (I don't think any european country would attack a german's interest infrastructure).
But maybe is what they are looking for. Let the world know that it had been them with an absurd lie, but officially not being able to accuse them as it had been an non governmental organization from a non top country at war with capabilities to destroy an infrastructure deep in the middle of the baltic sea
This is the most likely explanation to me.
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.

I am amazed that a non gubernamental group didn't do it before. with north stream 1 either. They were both created to bypass Ukrainian pipes
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.
My crackpot theory suspect always was Poland. Nordstream is a symbol for German-Russian friendship and some right wingers in Poland likened it to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Destroying Nordstream means making Germany dependent on East Europe again.
 
I can’t see who gains from this other than Ukraine, so I do err on the side that it’s them.

Doesn’t have the to be about who gains. Before the invasion, Biden tried deter Putin by threatening to put an end to NS2.

Biden and the US would look weak if they didn’t follow through on that threat.
 
Doesn’t have the to be about who gains. Before the invasion, Biden tried deter Putin by threatening to put an end to NS2.

Biden and the US would look weak if they didn’t follow through on that threat.

Yeah that’s a good point- it could be punitive.
 
My crackpot theory suspect always was Poland. Nordstream is a symbol for German-Russian friendship and some right wingers in Poland likened it to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Destroying Nordstream means making Germany dependent on East Europe again.
You're grossly underestimating Poland's incompetence.
 
Saying "pro-ukraine" group doesn't really narrow it down. That's most the free world.

If its not all that deep there, could some former naval SOF types been on their whatsapp group like "Yo lads, fancy a boat trip this weekend? I got a fun idea".
 
Saying "pro-ukraine" group doesn't really narrow it down. That's most the free world.

If its not all that deep there, could some former naval SOF types been on their whatsapp group like "Yo lads, fancy a boat trip this weekend? I got a fun idea".
The above linked Zeit article quotes the investigation result of a team of six people, a captain, two divers, two diver assistants and one medic who allegedly carried out the attack on a small chartered Polish boat.

So yes, your scenario is plausible in size.