There's a tendency I think to see false flags everywhere when it concerns Russia. Good to just wait for more info.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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We owe him so much, don't we? Such a wise and kind man.
At this point, I don't think these propagandist videos are worth posting anymore given that they don't really add anything to the thread.
I disagree. I think it's good to know what's being said on Russian state tv, get a feeling of what's on their mind.
Nothing has changed from what has been said on state TV from day one. Its getting to be gratuitous spam.
I don't think it was a false flag at all. The Ukrainians have been sinking ships, attacking bridges, using drones to attack sites within Russia for most of the war.
It is mind blowing there are people out there who actually believe this balatantly obvious propaganda nonsense. There's not even nuance to it, it is just obvious and clumsy manipulation.
China and India have been propping Putin him. His demise would've been expedited without their support imo.
As we've seen in Iran and a few other places, its nearly impossible for governments to completely cut their public off from outside information. Even uber-totalitarian North Korea can't do it, since South Koreans are sending balloons into the country with news from the outside. The Russians, who are pretty tech savvy, would have devised all sorts of ways to get around any VPN blocks.
I think they've rebuilt the damage pretty quickly, so I wouldn't speak about strategic consequences but it was always more of a symbolic gesture (and a heck of a symbolic gesture at that — Putin & the goons were fuming).
I've missed most of it as I wasn't near the news today. What a circus.
is that Scholz with the flag ?
Few believe it, even in Russia. The distinction between 'Pravda' and 'Istina' (both meaning 'truth') perhaps illustrates the post-soviet nihilism concerning truth. 'Pravda' already stood for subjective truth, with moral and legal tones (the ancient kievan rus legal code was called 'pravda'), implying norms of norms and values for behaviour. Then of course you have the broadsheet Pravda, which was the communist propaganda organ of choice throughout the soviet period. In contrast to Istrida, which has more a connnotation of 'objective truth'. Pravda has been stretched to the point of torture for at least a century in Russia by now.
I reckon most Russians hearing all that don't even ponder the believability of it. The takeaway is not facts, but how you are supposed to think about it and react, to either succeed (for the patriots) or not get in trouble (for the conscientious pragmatist). For a lot of russians, all sides lie and 'twas ever thus.
In my opinion it was. I always ask myself who benefits more if we don't know the truth and for me it's clearly Russia.
The bridge was still usable after the attack. One lane got destroyed and the train track got damaged. The cars used just the other lane for the time being and the train tracks were repaired pretty quick if I remember correctly. Further, they scan and inspect every truck driving on that bridge.
That leaves a boat? Could be, but pretty unlikely in my opinion, because it had to go a long way around crimea unnoticed and because only one lane collapsed and the other had no damage at all, which makes a truck bomb much more likely. And who benefited most from that attack? Russia of course, because soon after they started their missile terror right before the winter as an answer to that bridge attack. A pretty good trade for a half usable bridge for a few months in my opinion. I think that incident was needed by Putin to justify his civilian terror. He chose a prestige object worth mentioning, but did not hit it that hard for it to become a real problem.
The train track closer to the highway has still not been repaired and the other one is only open to lighter passanger trains, if I'm not mistaken. It was and to some point still is a major bottle neck for Russian logistics going to Crimea and Souther Ukraine. There is only one other railway that goes From Russian controlled areas into Southern Ukraine and Crimea and that line runs only 18km from Vuhledar, this is most likely why the Russians are so desperate to capture the city and push Ukrainian artillery further away from the railway line.In my opinion it was. I always ask myself who benefits more if we don't know the truth and for me it's clearly Russia.
The bridge was still usable after the attack. One lane got destroyed and the train track got damaged. The cars used just the other lane for the time being and the train tracks were repaired pretty quick if I remember correctly. Further, they scan and inspect every truck driving on that bridge.
That leaves a boat? Could be, but pretty unlikely in my opinion, because it had to go a long way around crimea unnoticed and because only one lane collapsed and the other had no damage at all, which makes a truck bomb much more likely. And who benefited most from that attack? Russia of course, because soon after they started their missile terror right before the winter as an answer to that bridge attack. A pretty good trade for a half usable bridge for a few months in my opinion. I think that incident was needed by Putin to justify his civilian terror. He chose a prestige object worth mentioning, but did not hit it that hard for it to become a real problem.
I just don't see why they would choose to destroy one of their most important supply lines as a false flag when there is thousands of other targets to choose from that wouldn't affect their war effort in Ukraine.
I think the West would rightly see that as extremely provocative by China and it would get a hard response. Nor can I see what China would strategically gain from it. It's one thing to buy Russian oil on the quiet, but this I think would be seen as destabilising. They'd have done it by now if they were going to.
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But what would be our response? Can we really give them a hard response without absolutely wrecking ourselves too? I think China are holding the best cards here.
The obvious answer would be to be more public in western support to Taiwan, possibly including more senior western leader visits to Taipei.
And that would not even tickle China. call in ambassadors and political blahblah, but I agree that the west would lose more than china in an economic war, so nothing tangible would be done
There's no winning hand when your poker partner is a complete loser, like Russia is. China must be regretting all those warm words ahead of Russian's invasion. Arming Russia wouldn't materially affect the outcome of the war, it's not in a region of Chinese interest, it's a very long supply line, a bunch of Russians losing a war while using the cream of Chinese military tech isn't a great look, and it would piss off all its biggest customers at a time when the Chinese economy is weak.
If the US wanted this thing to end fast, and became less concerned about the risks of escalation because they felt they had to respond to an escalatory threat from China, then they could do that. And that is something China has to think about.
All China can do is try to play the statesman, recoup a bit of prestige where they can, and wait for it to be over - which is pretty much what they are doing. There's no gain for China in this thing continuing for longer than it needs to. And there's no gain in doubling down on being on the losing side.
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They are still on it. Twitter thread from today about it:
Both the west and China are economically interdependent, so it would hurt China just as much. What would hurt them more is the west publicly cozying up to Taiwan. See how they freaked out when Pelosi visited recently.
Things like her visit, the COVID-19 lab leak, balloon stuff, and so on seemed to intensify the whole bad relationship thing recently. Xi had recently made himself unremovable, and he would not back down to appear weak.
The best way to irritate the West is to send weapons to Russia to demonstrate that he can exactly do that.
Personally, I believe that China is becoming increasingly entrapped by political pressures, and that it will retaliate somehow, which cannot be good for anyone.
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The difference is that democracies will suffer most than an autocratic china that can suppress and manipulate their population.
Obviously China has to lose a lot, that is why I doubt they would go for it at least very overtly (who knows helping with munition or microchips that might be difficult to trace), but the west would have way to lose. Is not the same to piss off accommodated middle class losing their jobs in a democracy that piss off people that they just got out of poverty so they had a hard life in a repressive regime.
Pelosi was a PR stunt and China couldn't care less. Another thing is that they need to dramatize it, of course and they milked it and spun it but in reality was unimportant. They know US and the west has interests in Taiwan, the US and the west knows that China will eventually try something (military or not) in Taiwan and it is just a matter of time. The rest are theatrics
I would argue that the Chinese leaning in to help Putin was a balance to their perceptions of US support for Taiwan, most recently during the Pelosi visit but even after when many more members of Congress visited. So there is clearly something that can be used against the Chinese, just as they probaby believe their support for Putin can be used against the west in Ukraine.
New aid package tomorrow according to Reuters. Unclear how big. Details will follow.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...ackage-ukraine-friday-white-house-2023-03-02/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...ackage-ukraine-friday-white-house-2023-03-02/
I remember that. Quite epic.
Meanwhile, over at CIA...
Take this with a grain of salt, but apparently there were explosions in Kolomna (Oblast Moscow!):
https://m.dzen.ru/news/story/Vozle_...031b773edcdc569138d5f2a2d8a7566c?issue_tld=ru
Two days ago it was reported that a Ukrainian drone crashed nearby, so maybe now another one hit its target.
And now on to speculation what could have been the possible target: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KB_Mashinostroyeniya
If this should be confirmed it simply means that the Kremlin is now in striking range for Ukrainian drones.
https://m.dzen.ru/news/story/Vozle_...031b773edcdc569138d5f2a2d8a7566c?issue_tld=ru
Two days ago it was reported that a Ukrainian drone crashed nearby, so maybe now another one hit its target.
And now on to speculation what could have been the possible target: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KB_Mashinostroyeniya
If this should be confirmed it simply means that the Kremlin is now in striking range for Ukrainian drones.
I think China is playing this situation for two things.
1) They want to show that they can decide whatever they want with this whole war and not cave in to the West's demands. They have their own terms.
2). They would probably support Putin a bit, not because they want Russia to win but because it will make life difficult for the West for a little longer. It's also a bit strategic because China may not want Putin to be destroyed right away so that the West doesn't focus entirely on them (while they continue to build their economy and military), and Xi can get some cheap resources from Putin while negotiating trade in this current situation. Hence, the longer this current situation continues, the better for Xi.
The best defended airspace in the world!
leaning into Russia is something that had been happening for a while and that is a result of the trade war that Trump started and Biden continued, the semiconductors war and etc...China is a threat to US and US is the stopper for China so tensions are inevitable. Taiwan is there for obvious reasons, but China only need to bid its time. Pelosi went to Taiwan as a PR stunt for the American market and China dramatized it for the Chinese market, nothing else.
If china helping Russia would have as only response publicly warming up with Taiwan as you propose, I would consider it, in my opinion, a poor response because it would not change absolutely anything as it is well known that is already like this and it would be repeating Biden's words about supporting Taiwan and Pelosis visit. Just one more PR stunt, while the effects of China helping Russia would have real consequences
Utter incompetence...
I know that Russian air defenses already saw its share of inglorious moments over the years, but this has to be a new low by their own standards.
Remove the limiters to what weapons the West sells to Taiwan. They've been waiting for a while to be allowed to upgrade their air force. Tell the Chinese that the F-35 and Eurofighters are on the table for Taiwan if Russia receives weapons from China.