Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
This thread is a pretty good place to keep up with the topic. We have primarily pro-Ukrainian news, but then again, there's little to no truthful information coming out of Russia theses days.
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I only got promoted from newbie recently and was frustrated before at not being able to ask questions here. I'll be keeping an eye on the thread, thanks.
 
Raoul said:
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Moldova should just ask Ukraine to pacify Transnistria. This would really take probably 3 days. Those 1500 armed soviet zealots wouldn't stand a chance against Ukraine's army and what would Russia do as retaliation? Start a war? Europe needs to get rid of every soviet carcass. If you leave it, it just poisons the soil and creates problems in the future.

e: It's funny how they chant "dictatorship" and love Putin at the same time. The hypocrisy has no ends.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Moldova should just ask Ukraine to pacify Transnistria. This would really take probably 3 days. Those 1500 armed soviet zealots wouldn't stand a chance against Ukraine's army and what would Russia do as retaliation? Start a war? Europe needs to get rid of every soviet carcass. If you leave it, it just poisons the soil and creates problems in the future.
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Yeah it would be an easy task for the now battle hardened Ukrainians to get rid of the Russian troops there (most of which are there in more of a policing role). Its not as if Putin could do anything to stop it.
 
Ragnar123 said:
This plan has 2 big problems. First it's pretty obvious and that means the russians are prepared for it.
And the second one is how many of their new shiny toys Ukraine wants to commit, because there are actually not that many coming. It's clear that Ukraine will counter attack at some point, because it's as you said. They didn't do anything offensive in the last months. But if we know this, then the russian generals know this too of course. They worked for the last months on their defenses. Every part of the front line is massively barricaded with many layers of defensive lines against infantry and armor. Satallite photos show them pretty clearly, they even dug them in Crimea. And you can expect other weapons against armor waiting for that attack.
It seems like the russians learned from their mistakes in Kharkiv and Cherson and dug themselves in this time. It will be extremly hard to push through those layers especially without air support by the looks of it and then the question is, if it wouldn't be smarter to keep the new armor as a constant threat rather than risking it all in one offensive. Europe is still very slow in their support and I can't imagine that Ukraine will get a 2nd big armor delivery this year. Europe's industry isn't on war production yet. It's a tough choice to use those ~30-50 Leopards and a few hundred IFVs in a difficult attack and what would be even worse than just losing western armor is to give russia propaganda material for the next months. Putin is only waiting for destroyed western armor photos/videos to flood russian media and show off russian strength over western military.

What gives hope is, that Nato advises Ukraine and I'm pretty sure they work together on a plan of attack the russians won't expect. The same as last year, when everyone was expecting a Cherson offensive and Ukraine just rolled over the Kharkiv region instead. I expect something similar. While everyone is expecting the obvious wedge to Melitopol because the Donbass is too well defended and the Dnipro river is blocking Cherson, it will be something completely different like crossing the Dnipro with pontoon bridges nobody saw coming. But no matter what, it will be far more difficult than last year I expect.
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What's the downsight to Putin getting this footage, though? Right now it doesn't seem as if a lack of domestic support is a problem for him. It is unlikely the Russian population will act anytime soon and if they do it is because the sanctions take their toll on them or because they lose their loved ones on the battle field, not because they think Russia as a state is losing a war.

Russia might have learned a thing or two from its mistakes but at least my impression is that they're still incredibly relentless with the lifes of their own soldiers, they're still fighting a war of attrition and it is questionable how long they can keep that up. A lot probably depends on whether China is going to support them with ammunition and weapons which could prolong the war significantly.

It's also worth mentioning that time is still on Ukraine's side, isn't it? At least as long as the NATO is supplying Ukraine. Economically, this war is much more costly to Russia than it is to the NATO. They aren't going to recover from the setback they'll have to endure. Core industries shrinking 40% within less than a year - especially in a country so reliant on a few economic sectors - is really bad. Especially when it comes hand in hand with losing up to 200k young males that would probably be part of the spine of their working class.
 
Raoul said:
A misleading headline given that the article claims the "nearly 40%" reduction is over the span of a year, not in one month
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I don't think it's misleading, that's a common way of talking about these things isn't it? Energy is surely heavily season dependent, so it makes sense to compare it to the equivalent period last year. Also it's not a drop over the span of a year, it's a drop compared to a year ago.
 
nimic said:
I don't think it's misleading, that's a common way of talking about these things isn't it? Energy is surely heavily season dependent, so it makes sense to compare it to the equivalent period last year. Also it's not a drop over the span of a year, it's a drop compared to a year ago.
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If the headline infers the drop was in one month then its misleading. The first sentence of the article is equally misleading.

"Russia’s revenues from oil and gas exports dropped by nearly 40% in January..."

Why not stipulate it was over the course of the year in the headline instead of luring visitors in only to then spring it on them later.
 
Raoul said:
If the headline infers the drop was in one month then its misleading. The first sentence of the article is equally misleading.

"Russia’s revenues from oil and gas exports dropped by nearly 40% in January..."

Why not stipulate it was over the course of the year in the headline instead of luring visitors in only to then spring it on them later.
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It was not over the course of the year, but revenue for January 2022 compared to January 2023, only those months.
 
Shakesey said:
This might be a silly question, but can people there read the caf without a VPN?
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It's not completely silly as there are some extremely odd choices on that Roscomnadzor's black list (like chess.com because they've removed the little picture of a Russian flag that shows next to the account name) but no, caf hasn't managed to get itself noticed by them yet.

I do use VPN (based on my private virtual server) as a default though — call it paranoia but encrypting your info from the provider is a necessity. Not that anyone's watching me now (I hope) but due to Russian laws providers need to keep logs on everyone for a significant time if the police/FSB would wish to access them.
 
Zehner said:
What's the downsight to Putin getting this footage, though? Right now it doesn't seem as if a lack of domestic support is a problem for him. It is unlikely the Russian population will act anytime soon and if they do it is because the sanctions take their toll on them or because they lose their loved ones on the battle field, not because they think Russia as a state is losing a war.
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In my opinion it's all a big picture. Right now it's quiet, but in big cities more out of fear than propaganda I would assume. Maybe I'm wrong here, but I think when Putin announces a second mobilazation wave and has nothing to show for in Ukraine, then more people start to get angry about the fact their sons die for nothing. The only way he can keep the public quiet is showing them victories and destroyed western armor would be perfect for it, as it would be also a "proof" they fight against the whole west and win. I wouldn't underestimate that message. They tell it anyways of course, but pictures are more powerful. When russia retreated in Kharkiv and Cherson, many critics appeared inside russia and their Social Media. His status depends only on victories and defeats in Ukraine. That's also the reason they want Bakhmut so badly. They need a bigger town again simply for propaganda value. He needs to sell victories or he is doomed in the long run.

Zehner said:
Russia might have learned a thing or two from its mistakes but at least my impression is that they're still incredibly relentless with the lifes of their own soldiers, they're still fighting a war of attrition and it is questionable how long they can keep that up. A lot probably depends on whether China is going to support them with ammunition and weapons which could prolong the war significantly.
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Agree. If they keep it up, they need soon another mobilization wave. And the less victories he is able to show with this kind of attrition, the more pressure he is under.

edit: a video from a russian tanker. His buddies don't look like they will leave this crater alive. But yeah, keep "pushing" for the guy in his 2 billion € palace.

 
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Footage from an evacuation unit operating around Bakhmut over the last couple months.

 
"The Russian man is a slow starter, but a fast rider."

Posts that feel sexual but aren't...?

 
Zehner said:
What's the downsight to Putin getting this footage, though? Right now it doesn't seem as if a lack of domestic support is a problem for him. It is unlikely the Russian population will act anytime soon and if they do it is because the sanctions take their toll on them or because they lose their loved ones on the battle field, not because they think Russia as a state is losing a war.

Russia might have learned a thing or two from its mistakes but at least my impression is that they're still incredibly relentless with the lifes of their own soldiers, they're still fighting a war of attrition and it is questionable how long they can keep that up. A lot probably depends on whether China is going to support them with ammunition and weapons which could prolong the war significantly.

It's also worth mentioning that time is still on Ukraine's side, isn't it? At least as long as the NATO is supplying Ukraine. Economically, this war is much more costly to Russia than it is to the NATO. They aren't going to recover from the setback they'll have to endure. Core industries shrinking 40% within less than a year - especially in a country so reliant on a few economic sectors - is really bad. Especially when it comes hand in hand with losing up to 200k young males that would probably be part of the spine of their working class.
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I think time is more critical for UKR than Russia. This supposed UAF offensive in the spring or whenever that happens will probably have an impact on how this war will go, obviously. If they can kick the Russians out of a lot of areas in the east, it will look good for UAF. Otherwise, it would probably not end well for UKR in terms of supplies, manpower, and, of course, economy. People keep talking about how Russian industries are shrinking while forgetting that the UKR needs to sort out its own economy to keep on defending.

I do think that China will start supplying lethal weapons to Russia one way or another soon.
 
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China is helping to prop up the Russian economy. Here’s how

In the year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been hit by unprecedented Western sanctions and shut out of much of the global economy.

But China, which has declared “no limits” to its friendship with its northern neighbor, has thrown the Kremlin an economic lifeline, tempering the impact of its banishment from the global financial system
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/economy/china-russia-economic-ties-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it’s growing

Russian oil is still finding its way to buyers around the world. But even those who spend their days tracking its movement across oceans struggle to work out exactly who is ferrying it.

As Western sanctions against Russia have escalated over its invasion of Ukraine, more ships have joined an existing fleet of mysterious tankers, ready to facilitate Russia’s oil exports.

Industry insiders estimate the size of that “shadow” fleet at roughly 600 vessels, or about 10% of the global number of large tankers. And numbers continue to climb.
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html
 
MadMike said:
First day of spring in in like 3 weeks. Weird Russkies.
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I think it was a huge mistake by the Russians to bank on this happening. It’s also very fortunate for us that it didn’t. If the rest of Europe had had to choose between warming its citizens and powering its industry this winter, I think we’d see huge pressure to normalise relations. As it is we’ve now got 6-8 months of relatively good weather to hopefully drop the price of oil and gas and build up a reserve for the next one.
 
the hea said:
Something very weird is going on in a village in Bryansk oblast.





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Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
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Yeah, video of those 2 with a flag and yellow stripes so nobody cant miss them looks legit.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
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The whole thing is just very weird.
First you have things like this which would indicate it is infact a attack comming from Ukraine.



But on the other hand it makes no sense why a sabotage group would be as big as the claimed 40-50 troops, why would they wear yellow battle markings while operating behind enemy lines and why attack civilians in a small village.
The whole thing makes no sense to me.
 
harms said:
I don’t use it as my main one but I’ve just checked and any of the three ExpressVPN servers that I’ve tried work without any issues.
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In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
 
Weird false flag. Another mobilisation taking place, or more dissent than we’re hearing about in Russia?
 
That didn't take long. Attacking one russian village is a terrorist attack, but bombing, raping and murdering tens of thousands civilians in Ukraine is acceptable. No hypocrisy to see here, moving on.
 
Sir Matt said:
In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
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Yeah, I've seen it and I've tried it with mobile too (I have the same operator as the twitter guy). To be fair expressVPN does their fair share of work to try and stay available so maybe they've switched something between his tweet and my check.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge
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Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?

This one does seem... sketchy to say the least though. Especially since Putin was apparently supposed so go there and now had to cancel his visit for security reasons.
 
harms said:
Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?
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No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
 
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