Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It will depend on the Ukrainian battle plans to take Crimea back, but some of the tanks would be needed if part of that plan demands securing the coastal areas (of which Odesa is a part) as the UA advances.

I do think the Tanks will eventually come in handy when the Ukrainians inevitably move to reclaim Crimea.
 
Great thread on new Russian tactics. Ditching the BTG model for a smaller concept.


I have to be honest, I don't necessarily have the knowledge to fully understand the implications of those changes, and how effectively they can actually be implemented, but the part about no longer using enemy trenches is interesting. Booby trapping must be a relatively common tactic from the UA if it is part of a new instrument manual
 
I have to be honest, I don't necessarily have the knowledge to fully understand the implications of those changes, and how effectively they can actually be implemented, but the part about no longer using enemy trenches is interesting. Booby trapping must be a relatively common tactic from the UA if it is part of a new instrument manual
Booby traps and having them pre-sighted for an artillery counter strike… very crafty by the Ukrainians.
 
Either Russia bombing themselves or UA has something with 500km range.

 

It's not surprising they mobilize in rural and ethnic minority areas, where people are too brainwashed or simply drunk to start riots. This way, they also make sure less young educated city people die in ukraine, whom they desperatly need to run the country in a few years.
 
Seems like Bakhmut won't hold on for much longer. Russians storm the city nonstop from the north, east and south in ww1 style. They don't care about their losses at all. Ukraine needs to get out of there if they want to save those heroic defenders.


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Bakhmut sounds like the worst offensive 'win' in modern war - I can't even remember when we first heard about it it was so long ago.
 
Bakhmut sounds like the worst offensive 'win' in modern war - I can't even remember when we first heard about it it was so long ago.
I think the first time I heard about Bakhmut was like...late September or something?
 
Bakhmut sounds like the worst offensive 'win' in modern war - I can't even remember when we first heard about it it was so long ago.
I certainly can't remember such a pathetic win in modern war.
I think the defense of the town started in the summer. That's about 6-8 months of heroic defence against an aggressor who uses his troops in ww1 style. The attack/defence kill ratio is normally around 3:1. It wouldn't surprise me, if Bakhmut is closer to 7-10:1.
 
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What has happened with the reported ammo/weapons etc at the salt mines near Soledar?
It was being reported here for a few weeks that there was a vast amount of useable gear down there, then Soledar was finally taken. Since then, the news was expressing the dire need for ammo.
 
Also, why are these numpties on social media all of a sudden calling Ukraine Nazis and making out that Putin is some sort of hero?

Most of them are russian bots and the rest are just trolls and brainwashed idiots.

Is there still no end in sight for this war? Are Russia just recruiting more and more troops until they win or what? What's the end game for Putin?

There isn't. The war will last years, because neither will Ukraine surrender, nor will Putin end this war before reaching his goals. He would not only lose his political power, but probably his life too.
When they'll run out of the mobilized men, they will recruite more. They still have enough brainwashed people in rural areas and some rusty aks to equip them with.
The west needs to be prepared for such a scenario. There isn't a short term solution without giving Putin what he wants. His ideal end game in ukraine is a devided and destroyed country with no chance of turning into a western democracy, while russia holds all the eastern areas with valuable natural ressources.
 
Is there still no end in sight for this war? Are Russia just recruiting more and more troops until they win or what? What's the end game for Putin?

If you want to join me in clinging on to a bit of hope - It is quite possible Ukraine has spent all winter stockpiling weapons and making plans for a large offensive come spring/summer, while committing the minimal amount they can get away with to hold the lines at Bakhmut, Vuhledar, etc. Ukraine has barely committed any significant force anywhere in the last 5 months. In all the footage I've seen released from both sides, and Russia releases a lot themselves, I don't think I've seen more than two Ukrainian armoured vehicles in the same picture.

They have a lot of new shiny toys coming online in the next few months and just because they have been begging for more of everything, doesn't mean they are massively short of anything. They will do whatever they can to receive as much aid as possible, they have to.

They just need to drive a wedge down past Melitopal toward the south coast (much easier said than done ofc). If they can do that, they can completely cut off supplies to Crimea and all Russian forces to the west. Hit the bridge, bomb the port at Sevastopol, Russian Navy will be scared to come anywhere near Neptune range.

If they can do that, then its job done. Big IF, but that's my wishful thought of the day.

What's the end game for Putin? Who gives a shit.
 
What has happened with the reported ammo/weapons etc at the salt mines near Soledar?
It was being reported here for a few weeks that there was a vast amount of useable gear down there, then Soledar was finally taken. Since then, the news was expressing the dire need for ammo.

Sounds like you might be reading a load of old rubbish potentially. Either way, I shouldn't think anyone here would know.
 
Sounds like you might be reading a load of old rubbish potentially. Either way, I shouldn't think anyone here would know.
It might well be a lot of rubbish, but it's the line that the BBC, Sky or DW News were following. I don't do twitter so avoid that nonsense, but do catch up with Radio Free Europe on youtube occasionally and the odd clip here and there.
 
If you want to join me in clinging on to a bit of hope - It is quite possible Ukraine has spent all winter stockpiling weapons and making plans for a large offensive come spring/summer, while committing the minimal amount they can get away with to hold the lines at Bakhmut, Vuhledar, etc. Ukraine has barely committed any significant force anywhere in the last 5 months. In all the footage I've seen released from both sides, and Russia releases a lot themselves, I don't think I've seen more than two Ukrainian armoured vehicles in the same picture.

They have a lot of new shiny toys coming online in the next few months and just because they have been begging for more of everything, doesn't mean they are massively short of anything. They will do whatever they can to receive as much aid as possible, they have to.

They just need to drive a wedge down past Melitopal toward the south coast (much easier said than done ofc). If they can do that, they can completely cut off supplies to Crimea and all Russian forces to the west. Hit the bridge, bomb the port at Sevastopol, Russian Navy will be scared to come anywhere near Neptune range.

This plan has 2 big problems. First it's pretty obvious and that means the russians are prepared for it.
And the second one is how many of their new shiny toys Ukraine wants to commit, because there are actually not that many coming. It's clear that Ukraine will counter attack at some point, because it's as you said. They didn't do anything offensive in the last months. But if we know this, then the russian generals know this too of course. They worked for the last months on their defenses. Every part of the front line is massively barricaded with many layers of defensive lines against infantry and armor. Satallite photos show them pretty clearly, they even dug them in Crimea. And you can expect other weapons against armor waiting for that attack.
It seems like the russians learned from their mistakes in Kharkiv and Cherson and dug themselves in this time. It will be extremly hard to push through those layers especially without air support by the looks of it and then the question is, if it wouldn't be smarter to keep the new armor as a constant threat rather than risking it all in one offensive. Europe is still very slow in their support and I can't imagine that Ukraine will get a 2nd big armor delivery this year. Europe's industry isn't on war production yet. It's a tough choice to use those ~30-50 Leopards and a few hundred IFVs in a difficult attack and what would be even worse than just losing western armor is to give russia propaganda material for the next months. Putin is only waiting for destroyed western armor photos/videos to flood russian media and show off russian strength over western military.

What gives hope is, that Nato advises Ukraine and I'm pretty sure they work together on a plan of attack the russians won't expect. The same as last year, when everyone was expecting a Cherson offensive and Ukraine just rolled over the Kharkiv region instead. I expect something similar. While everyone is expecting the obvious wedge to Melitopol because the Donbass is too well defended and the Dnipro river is blocking Cherson, it will be something completely different like crossing the Dnipro with pontoon bridges nobody saw coming. But no matter what, it will be far more difficult than last year I expect.
 
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China’s blacklisted Spacety allegedly shared satellite images with Russia’s Wagner group-U.S. official.
Chinese satellite firm Spacety, which was added to a U.S. trade blacklist earlier this month, provided satellite images to Russian mercenary company Wagner Group, a Biden administration official said on Tuesday.

Daniel Kritenbrink , U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, made the remarks during a congressional hearing on Tuesday morning.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa...ssias-wagner-group-u-s-official-idUKL1N3581PC
 
I think the first time I heard about Bakhmut was like...late September or something?
I think they have been attacking it for ages. But it looks like they started really going at it (more human waves + better equipment) around at the end of the November. UA's manpower loss started going really high since December for that place.

I am hoping anyway that UAF is holding on as long as possible because they have massive advantages of doing it.
 
This plan has 2 big problems. First it's pretty obvious and that means the russians are prepared for it.
And the second one is how many of their new shiny toys Ukraine wants to commit, because there are actually not that many coming. It's clear that Ukraine will counter attack at some point, because it's as you said. They didn't do anything offensive in the last months. But if we know this, then the russian generals know this too of course. They worked for the last months on their defenses. Every part of the front line is massively barricaded with many layers of defensive lines against infantry and armor. Satallite photos show them pretty clearly, they even dug them in Crimea. And you can expect other weapons against armor waiting for that attack.
It seems like the russians learned from their mistakes in Kharkiv and Cherson and dug themselves in this time. It will be extremly hard to push through those layers especially without air support by the looks of it and then the question is, if it wouldn't be smarter to keep the new armor as a constant threat rather than risking it all in one offensive. Europe is still very slow in their support and I can't imagine that Ukraine will get a 2nd big armor delivery this year. Europe's industry isn't on war production yet. It's a tough choice to use those ~30-50 Leopards and a few hundred IFVs in a difficult attack.

What gives hope is, that Nato advises Ukraine and I'm pretty sure they work together on a plan of attack the russians won't expect. The same as last year, when everyone was expecting a Cherson offensive and Ukraine just rolled over the Kharkiv region instead. I expect something similar. While everyone is expecting the obvious wedge to Melitopol because the Donbass is too well defended and the Dnipro river is blocking Cherson, it will be something completely different like crossing the Dnipro with pontoon bridges nobody saw coming. But no matter what, it will be far more difficult than last year I expect.

Yeh, agree on all points. I only hope that with all their planning and advice and resource from all over the right places, they somehow figure out a way to do it.
 
I certainly can't remember such a pathetic win in modern war.
I think the defense of the town started in the summer. That's about 6-8 months of heroic defence against an aggressor who uses his troops in ww1 style. The attack/defence kill ratio is normally around 3:1. It wouldn't surprise me, if Bakhmut is closer to 7-10:1.
You would think that would be the case with the way and how long UAF is holding on there. I doubt that the ratio would be anywhere close to that though. But destroying most of Wagner group at one place would be efficient even though UAF themselves has lost a lot of men for that.
 
The guy ringing me up at the grocery store yesterday was Mexican but was a dead ringer for Solovyev. I was expecting the below, but ended up with a friendly Solovyev with a Mexican accent. This thread is beginning to live in my head

 
It might well be a lot of rubbish, but it's the line that the BBC, Sky or DW News were following. I don't do twitter so avoid that nonsense, but do catch up with Radio Free Europe on youtube occasionally and the odd clip here and there.

This thread is a pretty good place to keep up with the topic. We have primarily pro-Ukrainian news, but then again, there's little to no truthful information coming out of Russia theses days.
 
Russia's oil and gas revenues fell nearly 40% in Jan, IEA says.

STOCKHOLM, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Russia’s revenues from oil and gas exports dropped by nearly 40% in January as price caps and Western sanctions squeezed the proceeds from Moscow’s most lucrative export, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. Russia’s oil and gas export revenues were $18.5 billion in January, 38% lower than the $30 billion Moscow received in January 2022, a month before its invasion of Ukraine, according to IEA numbers shared with Reuters.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Western measures targeting Russian energy exports had achieved their aims of stabilising oil markets and reducing Moscow’s revenues from oil and gas exports.

“Our expectation is that this oil and gas revenue decline will be steeper in the next months to come. And even more steep in the mid-term, as a result of the lack of access to technology and investment,” Birol told Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/iea...-fell-nearly-40-in-jan-iea-says-idUSL4N3582TJ