Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Looks like RA is pushing with a lot of troops in the North East recently and more troops are gathering in the North of the UA.
 
The memoirs - "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible: Adventures in Modern Russia"
I've watched the video on the background but it was a bit tough to follow since to me everything he was saying was already talked to death. But yeah, the imperialism, the resentment etc., it's all there and it was always there and now we all witness how ugly these things can turn out to be if left unattended.

As for the inevitable doom and gloom regarding the future? If we're talking immediate future or, say, the next decade, we can only hope that by the end of that period Russia will be on the right path to becoming a normal democratic society. On the very, very beginning of that path — and that's the best case. But if we're talking about the historical perspective I think it'll be alright some day... there's nothing innately wrong with Russians, Russian soul or whatever. The issue is that the likes of Great Britain, Germany etc. started the process of reevaluating and making up for their past way earlier and now they're already way ahead. Russia should've started that process in the 90's by admitting the crimes of the Soviet Union — against the world & against its own people — and trying to work through it, but went with the easier route of just ignoring them (aside from organizations like Memorial).

Take the unresolved issues of the past, add one corrupt dictator with unlimited power with a decade of ridiculously high prices on endless natural resources that can be used to create the illusion of developing and progressive economy -> country... cook the whole thing on a small (gas) fire for 20 years and this is what you'll get.
 
Yeah, but at least to me the opening tweet of that Twitter thread read a little bit as if they were turning on Putin/increasing the pressure on him/openly challenging him

No politician can openly challenge Putin in Russia. The next day they will be under investigation for corruption, and they will go to jail. Many politicians are already corrupt, but it is easy to manufacture "evidence" as well. Russia is a mafia state, you cannot challenge the head of the Mafia.
 
Thats what I had been thinking till Ukraine regain so much territory in september

Lets suppose that Ukraine conquers all territory Crimea included. Victory, great. Lets say that russia just dedicates his days bombing Ukraine from its borders as they are virtually untouchable in their homeland

What Ukraine/the West will do in that case?
1. Equip Ukraine with enough air defence missiles to deal with it, although it's not likely that Russia will just keep on bombing Ukraine with no gains whatsoever.
2. Keep up with (and strengthen) the sanction until the Russian population really start feeling it. Radically weakened private economy will change the public opinion in Russia.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64629156

US warns that dual citizens face Russian conscription

The US has warned its citizens to leave Russia immediately or risk wrongful detention or conscription to fight in Ukraine.

In a new travel warning, the State Department said Russia may refuse to acknowledge US-Russian dual citizenship.

The warning added that US citizens had already "been interrogated without cause and threatened".
 
Is this Moldova stuff coming from Ukrainian intel or Western intel?

It's cited from Moldovan Intelligence, obviously can't know if they are receiving info from elsewhere. They've also shut their airspace down today due to an unknown UAV.
 
So this would be like the third likely World War inducing incident in three months (plus Nord Stream and the missile in Poland). Is it just posturing or something else? Who benefits from this narrative? I assume it would be those who want to promote peace talks in something similar to the current conditions.
 
So this would be like the third likely World War inducing incident in three months (plus Nord Stream and the missile in Poland). Is it just posturing or something else? Who benefits from this narrative? I assume it would be those who want to promote peace talks in something similar to the current conditions.
What you mean?

In other news, Lloyd Austin is coming to Estonia this Thursday the 16th and Stoltenberg & Van der Leyen should be coming on the 24th for Estonia's 105th Independence Day & also the year of the war date.
 
Ignore the awful music but this it is pretty insane footage from few days ago:


The song is from the Ukrainian TV show "деревня дураков" (the forest of the fools). It's perfect for this video, if you know the show.
 
I'm sure Putin would love to control Moldova and use it as a western flank for eventually invading Odesa Oblast.
Is there a realistic scenario of something like this happening? I mean, Russia doesn't have any direct route to Moldova and they have (according to wiki) around 1,500 troops in Transnistria? I mean, even with some additional troops from Transnistria itself they're not going to take the country, surely?


Although after all the shit that Putin has pulled so far even those lunatic-sounding scenarios may be his actual plan...
 
Is there a realistic scenario of something like this happening? I mean, Russia doesn't have any direct route to Moldova and they have (according to wiki) around 1,500 troops in Transnistria? I mean, even with some additional troops from Transnistria itself they're not going to take the country, surely?


Although after all the shit that Putin has pulled so far even those lunatic-sounding scenarios may be his actual plan...

Fomenting instability from within is always a pretext for Putin to get his hooks into a country. I don't think he would invade outright given everything else thats going on, but it would be immensely helpful to him to control as much of Moldova as possible to put pressure on southwestern Ukraine.
 
Any chance of any negotiations soon? Or have the weapons manufacturers not made enough yet?
 
Any chance of any negotiations soon? Or have the weapons manufacturers not made enough yet?

Is that what you think? That the reason there aren't any peace negotiations is because of weapons manufacturers?

Edit: I guess it is.

Ukraine will win one day…the country will be completely destroyed and they’ll owe the West $100s of billions…but at least they ‘won’, Russia weakened AND they’ll have an Oscar.

It will be clear that it was definitely worth flirting with NATO that’s for sure.

Just my thoughts.
 
"The U.S. military is considering sending Ukraine thousands of seized weapons and more than a million rounds of ammunition once bound for Iran-backed fighters in Yemen, an unprecedented step that would help Kyiv battle Russian forces, U.S. and European officials said."

 
Any chance of any negotiations soon? Or have the weapons manufacturers not made enough yet?
Putin's true ambition is to go down in history as a leader than made Russia expand. Just like Catherine the great and Ivan the great. Hard to negotiate with that.

And I take your comment about weapons manufacturers as some sort of joke, as I'm sure you don't really suggest that they are the reason there's war going on.
 
Any chance of any negotiations soon? Or have the weapons manufacturers not made enough yet?
There will be negotiations as soon as the Russian regime opens up for a genuine withdrawal from all occupied territory… (which won’t happen soon enough).