Russia are also running very low on tanks, hence why they're bringing over ww2 tanks. It's ultimately a stalemate right now, although Russia are far more willing to throw their soldiers into suicide missions.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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When the Russian army will run out of functioning armored vehicles while Ukraine will receive the new MBTs, what will the former do next? Throwing their troops with suicide vests at tanks like the Imperial Japanese Army at Khalkhin Gol (think of the 2011 Korean movie titled My Way)? Just crazy to even think about it.
Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russia alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian?. 100+ modern MBT's plus all the Bradley, Marder, Stryker, etc etc, are going to arrive in the first wave. Expected to be at the end of next month. What the feck is that going to be too late for? Russia has gained literally nothing in the last 6 months of their offensives, unless you count the tiny village of Soledar as some sort of gain.
I've never heard of this guy, but I don't think he's pro-Russian judging by this google-translated Tweet of his:
RPGs are relatively cheap to produce, no need for suicide bombs. However infantery attacks of course are very risky.
And yes in general there can already be seen an uptake in infantery attacks and a decrease in mechanized/armoured attacks.
Do RPGs do much against modern tanks? Not much better than a suicide vest if you have to find the exact angle and get lucky.
Yes I know IFV's are not MBT's, some Bradley's have already arrived however, judging by the boasts of US Logistics. The 100 I refer to is just Leopards and the Challengers, expected around the end of March, though not sure what that will translate to in terms of being in active use.
I'm much less worried that some people, it seems, with the current lack of activity on the Ukrainian side and Russia's 'Offensives'. To me, Russia appear more and more impotent every day that goes by. Boggles the mind how little they've achieved really... Behind the front lines do they ever do any damage at all to Ukraine's military equipment and infrastructure? All this devastating long range missile arsenal Russia wields and from a strategic point of view they've used it to achieve absolutely nothing? Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds too ridiculous to be true. Ukraine can keep the bulk of its forces out of fire range and still hold the likes of Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
We've been here before, Ukraine is patient and there is little point them launching any major operations now, knowing their capabilities will be higher once the upgraded equipment arrives. Activity will most likely depend on GLSDB delivery now, they will wait for those.
Sorry for blindly accusing the guy of being pro-russian. Saying western tanks will be in-effective and 'too late'!? just sounds like a very odd pro-russian coping type opinion to me.
Russia have 3300 tanks. They have also10k in storage in the West. They might be of dubious quality (ie age and condition) but they are good for scavenging. They are also in a wartime production and can produce 200 tanks a year (if I remember well but it could be even more) Ukraine currently rely on old soviet tanks who are significantly inferior to the average Russian tank
However not everything is doom and gloom
a- Russia seem to be struggling with missiles. Hence why the production is reducing
b- Many on that site seems wondering why Ukraine is obsessed with tanks as they believe that they need long range missiles more, certain types of drones and planes more
c- Russia's offensive will still not be able to invade all of Ukraine. It will probably be enough to capture the Donbas
Bottom line of the story is this
a- Russia is taking the war very seriously. In fact they had switched to wartime production. NATO is not. Our 'peace time production' is laughable thus there is a real concern that we'll run out of help we can provide
b- Crimea is Russia's real red line. If lost then Putin might go nuclear. It might also cost his job (and life)
c- No one will invest in rebuilding Ukraine unless he's got solid assurances that Ukraine is safe. Putin's words are worth nothing so this assurance must come from the West.
d- They believe that the typical 'all in' strategy the US love to use should be reintroduced. Basically Nato should arm Ukraine to the teeth, with everything it needs and with huge quantities. These will allow Ukraine to give Russia a swift and proper beating with the latter lacking the time to react. Once they reach Crimea's door and with no chance of Russia retaining it then Putin will be forced to come to the negotiating table. At that point its suggested that Zelensky would push Putin to retreat his troops and give his consent for Ukraine to join NATO/EU in exchange of the Ukrainians accepting Crimea as part of Russia.
Against those delivered to Ukraine yes.
However usually not by frontal attacks, but if you can flank a Leopard, Abrams or Challenger because it isn't covered well, you can damage or destroy it easily using an RPG. Turkey lost some Leopard in Syria due to this (enables by their own tactical errors which resembled more the Russian than the Ukrainian approach).
The most modern variants of some Western tanks do have an active protection system against incoming projectiles and should not be harmed by RPGs, but those are off the table for Ukraine so far. For example the Leopard 2 A7V+ uses the same Trophy APS that was developed and is used by the Merkava, but Ukraine is only getting A4 and A6 versions.
As said I am only relaying the message from those sites which are the most detailed I fount. They criticise when they feel that criticism is due (especially the politics surrounding the Leopard-Abrams farce) but I can guarantee that they are not pro Z. In fact Mirco Campociari had taken Italian pro Z supporters to court for calling him Neo Nazi while General Capitini is a decorated general who even worked with NATO.
There are 4 things that are worrying me
a- Russia is taking the war extremely seriously as defeat will probably cost Putin's life. In fact they have ramped to war time production and have been releasing prisoners to act as cannon fodder or workers in factories. NATO's main concern seem to be not to piss Russia off and to make sure that their toys don't end in Russian hands
b- At present Russia is on the offensive and that despite the fact that their major offensive hasn't started.
c- Ukraine top brass seem divided for the first time with Zaluzhny hinting of a possible disagreement with Zelensky on how to use the reserves
d- That site are puzzled with Ukraine's obsession with tanks. They also fear that the amount of tanks provided will not be enough for a real offensive.
Ukraine will never ever accept Crimea to be part of Russia. Crimea is vitally important to them and they will take it back.
One of the largest coal mines there. It simply must hold.
Said this weeks ago and told that I was listening to the Russian propaganda or some shit.
Even the Russian guy here said the Russians could not escalate more when I said they could by using more bodies. They may be ill equipped and poorly trained but so are most of the UA troops at the moment as well.
I get it that some people want the UA to win and refuse to look at the battle field news rationlly but It's really concerning for the UA in the next few weeks.
Well, most of us know full well that more deaths means nothing to Kremlin, while Ukraine are trying to save as many of their own as they can. I do expect Russia to make some slight progress this month, however, I fully expect some major counter offensive by the yellow blues in April. Longer range missiles will help enormously.
You have also been saying that Bahkmut is falling for months now, and it's still there. There is no source for UA troops being ill equipped and poorly trained, but you opt to sell it as a fact anyway.
The manpower of the RA has never been doubted here. However, its capabilities for performing a full on offensive with the new recruits and a prepared enemy with NATO weaponry, we'll see. They haven't so far, and so far I don't see Zelensky or its allies particularly worried.
Winter will pass and we'll see the reopening of several battlefronts (Kherson, Zaporzhizhia/Melitopol, Svatove/Kreminna/Severodonetsk) to see what's what.
Not likely given that Ukraine actually does want Crimea back. Therefore the only negotiated settlement could happen once Putin is gone, since losing Crimea would almost certainly end his dictatorship and probably his life.
I'm sure Ukraine wants Crimea back but I'd be surprised if they actually went for it with military force.
Many can't imagine it because they think Putin would resort to nukes to keep it. But imagine a scenario where the Ukrainians beat the Russians back to pre-2022 lines, where the Russians lack the hardware to continue defending existing territory, all the while they are crumbling economically and socially from within. At that point, would Zelenskyy stop his momentum to negotiate a ceasefire (thereby permanently giving away Crimea) or would he continue into Crimea (which is still Internationally recognized as Ukrainian). There wouldn't be a chance he would give up Crimea if he knew he had the Russians on the backfoot.
I don't think legalizing the loss of Crimea is even a viable option for Ukraine right now, since it would mean both a very diminished capability for commerce (with Odessa as their only port of relevance) AND a serial agreement breaker like Putin still in power.
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This is why many of these experts on Twitter need to be taken with a massive pinch of salt. The only way this ends is with an out and out Russian victory, an out and out Ukrainian victory, or through the use of a tactical nuke by the Russians. There won't be any negotiated settlements because the only outcome the Ukrainians will accept is all their land back and the only outcome Putin will accept is the acquisition of further Ukrainian territory.
A direct attack seems unlikely, I agree. But laying siege to Crimea would be possible if Ukraine can retake Mariupol (or another corridor to the sea) and also finally take out the bridge. At that point Crimea could only be supplied by aircrafts and ships, and both can be attacked.
They would simply resupply by air and ship (as you said). A siege would also risk turning off the Crimean population against the Ukrainian side if they felt Kyiv was a source of their hardship. The only way to get Crimea back is to cut off Russian supply by ground then literally attack Crimea by road, air, and sea. Each will be critical since the land attack route will be insanely fortified by the Russians.
I understand that the water supply for Crimea goes through a canal starting from Khakovka in Kherson oblast. Getting there, cutting the supply, laying siege and doing some strategic bombing (for example in Kerch bridge) is not that unthinkable, altough a major offensive in the oblast would be needed.
How come? I tend to believe it would be easier than the Donbas.
Yes they would need to attack at some point. But what I meant is that they don't need to frontally attack Crimea, they could and should prepare that first (if they can at all).
As many times I said here, No one knows the equipment that Russia has left and will have, no one knows what equipment Ukraine has left and will have. No one knows how much casualties Russia have and no one knows how many casualties have
But what we all should know that anything that you believe about Russia is not as bad as you think. And anything that you believe about Ukraine is not as good as you think
Because this is a propaganda battle also and any information that you have about them, is taken from social media based on 3rd and 4th hand information and wishful thinking and anyone minimally involved that might say anything, will not say the real information (even what they might have is not always correct) and even lie for strategically and/or political reasons
So many assumptions had been made about Russia running out of equipment in the second month of war. That Ukraine was finished at the beginning of summer. That winter would be favorable for Ukraine and they would go on the offensive as soon as the terrain would be hardened, that russia would send untrained units right away
Spring will paint the real picture. Hopefully Ukraine received as much equipment and training to hold and recover terrain
But what we all should know that anything that you believe about Russia is not as bad as you think. And anything that you believe about Ukraine is not as good as you think
Because this is a propaganda battle also and any information that you have about them, is taken from social media based on 3rd and 4th hand information and wishful thinking and anyone minimally involved that might say anything, will not say the real information (even what they might have is not always correct) and even lie for strategically and/or political reasons
So many assumptions had been made about Russia running out of equipment in the second month of war. That Ukraine was finished at the beginning of summer. That winter would be favorable for Ukraine and they would go on the offensive as soon as the terrain would be hardened, that russia would send untrained units right away
Spring will paint the real picture. Hopefully Ukraine received as much equipment and training to hold and recover terrain
Some pretty intense footage, to say the least. The poor guy and his fecking foot, I couldn't help but chuckle.
You don't need to regularly remind us that no one knows anything. It is kind of baked in to the general consciousness at this point.
And besides: you don't know that.
Useful idiot.
Show me where I said Bahkmut was falling for months. In fact, I said UA should be defending as much as they could, as people thought it was not that important, which I disagreed with. But now, it got to the point that the UA might be wasting their own combat capacity due to RA's overwhelming frontal assaults, and the UA are hardly equipped to withstand that for any longer there where the operational encirclement is very possible soon.
The RA forces are performing as well as they can and are likely to gain territory more than the UA at this point. The NATO weaponry has been there but not enough, and it takes time to train UA soldiers to be effective at using them. So it is a fact that UA troops are hardly more trained and equipped than RA troops at this moment. All you can hope for is that the UA will hold the line while losing minimal territory, allowing the RA to lose steam and counter. Also, a country like Russia can and did increase its military industry right away despite all the limitations, whereas the "West" has to convince some of its population even to aid the UA, let alone start producing some of the critical ammunition to keep the supply going for a mid- to long-term war.
Or you hope the UA has some secret plan that will surprise all of us again.
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I have no doubt about that. I just hope the UA don't lose steam themselves soon.
My number point was simple. The RA is losing a lot of men, but not as many as people are making out, assuming the UA is not losing much. Both assumptions may not be true. All we do is watch clips of how RA got blown up while losing territory little by little and think something is going to turn around.
Two mentions of Bahkmut. The first is one and a half week ago, saying that the situation is difficult, while the second is a reply to your comment here:
Edit: Nevermind, wrong spelling.
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Over 5MEUR now collected with the space of few days.
Do you know what kind of radar system they are talking about?
We have a similar situation here. Far right parties are pro Russian. They havent said that outright but its obvious from their comments.
Interestingly the German far right is split in this regard. The most important AfD as seen above is pro Russia, while the small "The 3rd Way" has ties to Azov and actively tried to recruit fighters for them.