Probably. Greece has been in an arms race with Turkey since the 70s and kept it up despite the near financial meltdown of the country. From their POV, the only way any significant equipment (tanks, jets, IFVs or arty) could be donated to Ukraine is if Greece gets given (i.e. donated) something in return that leaves Greece either better off or at the very least, not worse off. Like the deal to send old Soviet BMP-1s to Ukraine in exchange for receiving German Marders.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran discuss a horrific month of December and a depressing FOUR defeats in a row - the latest coming against Wolves and Newcastle.
They discuss how much blame is on Ruben Amorim and rank our squad against other Premier League teams.
Do we have any chance of avoiding defeat at Anfield?
Probably. Greece has been in an arms race with Turkey since the 70s and kept it up despite the near financial meltdown of the country. From their POV, the only way any significant equipment (tanks, jets, IFVs or arty) could be donated to Ukraine is if Greece gets given (i.e. donated) something in return that leaves Greece either better off or at the very least, not worse off. Like the deal to send old Soviet BMP-1s to Ukraine in exchange for receiving German Marders.
And cause of lots of Turks in Germany.
To be honest the chances of a Turkish land invasion were always extremely low. There's only a small strip of land border between Greece and Turkey, 60kms length, where the river Maritsa is the natural border. The two banks of the river mark the most militarised region of the whole of Europe. A pretty ludicrous amount of artillery, tanks, IFVs, combat helis etc. sit there. Passage is near impossible for either side without suffering monstrous level of casualties.
If ever there was to be a conflict it would certainly be a naval and air conflict over the Aegean Sea. Therefore the key to the heart of any Greek General or Politician, if you want them to give up tanks or arty, is to offer ships and airplanes instead.
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I've watched this and the previous videos in the series and it struck me how amateur (and I don't mean this disparigingly) the resistance efforts were early on in the war. I have a tonne of respect for these foreign volunteers who rocked up, banded together with strangers and fought to defend Ukraine.
The alternative I have seen is that the super powers of the west do not want to trigger a coup/revolution in Russia and create a power vacuum in a country with their Arsenal so they are content for it to be contained to Ukraine and happening relatively slowly at the moment.
But surely the coup/revolution is the only way of ending the war?
I get that it's risky someone even more mental than Putin comes in but it's less risky than lengthening the war I'd have thought.
Genuine close quarters combat footage often looks amateurish compared to the pictures we have in our heads of how things should go, even if its special forces involved, not that we ever get to see much.
I always think back to the SAS Iranian embassy siege which skyrocketed their notoriety. They got pretty lucky with that raid in between setting fire to themselves and getting stuck on ziplines.
Switzerland might trick its own rules and help Ukraine
https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/kri...-panzer-ringtausch-dank-schweizer-sonderregel
The idea: Switzerland will send Leopard tanks to another country that keeps those, and this third country can send their existing stock to Ukraine. This way Switzerland would follow it's own law to stay neutral and not deliver (or allow deliveries, see the Gepard ammunition drama) to countries at war, but still would enable delivery of more tanks to Ukraine.
Poland might be the third country for this deal, if it should happen.
https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/kri...-panzer-ringtausch-dank-schweizer-sonderregel
The idea: Switzerland will send Leopard tanks to another country that keeps those, and this third country can send their existing stock to Ukraine. This way Switzerland would follow it's own law to stay neutral and not deliver (or allow deliveries, see the Gepard ammunition drama) to countries at war, but still would enable delivery of more tanks to Ukraine.
Poland might be the third country for this deal, if it should happen.
Thats what I had been thinking till Ukraine regain so much territory in september
Lets suppose that Ukraine conquers all territory Crimea included. Victory, great. Lets say that russia just dedicates his days bombing Ukraine from its borders as they are virtually untouchable in their homeland
What Ukraine/the West will do in that case?
Ask Israel how to deal with that kind of situation. That scenario would be more or less the same than what Israel is living under.
Bigger problem is building up Ukraine to being self sufficient and having them take themselves off the West leash.
There’s only so far down the years Russia can hide behind their border before the war comes to them
Russian rockets are far better and stronger than whatever Palestinians can throw at Israel. Even if Ukraine somehow manages to get as good systems as Israel, it will be impossible to defend considering the larger space from where Russia can throw them (compared to Palestinians), and Russia even have hypersonic ones which are not defendable. They also won’t have the option to demilitarize Russia every few years.
So it will be a very shitty position for them.
Israel isn't Ukraine in this situation, but I see what you mean.
Yes, living under constant threat of missile attacks. Surely would be for different reasons and yes, Ukraine is much bigger and the Russian missiles much more capable, but the basic idea is the same.
Meanwhile (but probably a bit offtopic) the integration of the Dutch Army into the German is ongoing and increasing: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...erge-land-combat-units-with-germany-this-year
This is in so far relevant to Ukraine as for example the shared Patriot battalion is currently in Slovakia and allowed Slovakia to give their S-300 to Ukraine (quite early in the war). Obviously people seem to be content how this cooperation goes and further cooperation might also yield some synergies that could free stuff to be delivered to Ukraine? No idea, just a hope.
Might be. For now the now confirmed delivery of the GLSDB for the M142/M270 is the next important capability increase for Ukraine. Looking at its longer range (150km instead of 90km, effectively enabling hits roughly 130km instead of 70km deep into Russian territory) it will push back Russian logistics bases much deeper and will quite effectively lower the amount of supplies the Russians can bring to the front line (assuming they keep using the same number of trucks as they currently do, and an increase seems difficult considering the old garbage they already have to use).This makes sense. So fighter jets in 6 months then
If supplied in sufficient numbers the GLSDB should have a similar effect on the battlefield as the GMLRS originally had. Still missing is the ATACMS but hopefully that will finally follow soon.
If that number is true, it kind of aligns with what the "Western" intelligence estimated about their causality figure at 180,000. Over 300,000 is not a small amount and It can only grow in a few weeks when they start their major offensives. You hope the UA has enough equipment to hold the lines for awhile.
If that happened Putin would be removed and new Russian leadership would realize it could not regain the territory so it wouldn't look to continue an unwinnable war started by the now humiliated/dead Putin.
If it did then the black sea is unusable for Russian shipping as the anti ship missile Ukraine would place in Crimea plus the aircraft based there would be able to sink Russian ships at will.
I am sorry but no. You can't compare Hamas attack capabilities with Russian attack capabilities, range and power and all the resources behind. simply not
Sure, this hipotetical situation could last till putin dies as excuse...but still, Ukraine could be under serious fire for more than a decade even winning the war
So about those Russian manpower problems...
Has this come as a surprise or something?
Didn't they conscript 300,000 men a few months ago?
I found 2 Italian youtube channels who go in pretty detail about what's going on in Ukraine. Their names are Parabellum and Ivan Grieco. Basically
a- Russia is on the offensive, the pressure will increase significantly in Spring
b- Russia is using tactics fresh from WW1. They are first throwing the prisoners as cannon fodder to tire the Ukrainians only to then swarm them with their superior (in terms of numbers) army
c- Ukraine tanks are on their last legs.
d- the tanks initiative is basically useless. They are too few and they will come to service too late
e- Russia will capture the Donbas but will run of steam afterwards.
Please don't shoot the messenger
a- Russia is on the offensive, the pressure will increase significantly in Spring
b- Russia is using tactics fresh from WW1. They are first throwing the prisoners as cannon fodder to tire the Ukrainians only to then swarm them with their superior (in terms of numbers) army
c- Ukraine tanks are on their last legs.
d- the tanks initiative is basically useless. They are too few and they will come to service too late
e- Russia will capture the Donbas but will run of steam afterwards.
Please don't shoot the messenger
What Russia is running low on is hardware, they still have plenty of software and can draft lots more. Just to serve as bullet sponges, but they can have an effect if they're many enough. They have lost thousands of vehicles and are digging deep to come up with replacements.
Talks about a major offensive on 24th of this month.
Celebrating a defeat of occupying forces in WW2 as a means to rally domestic support for their own occupying forces in Ukraine all the while calling Ukrainians nazis.
There's so much irony in all this its mental.
There's so much irony in all this its mental.
Any chance that if this wasn’t Russia, it was a mercenary operation at the behest of a person or organisation that stood to gain a lot of money from inflating oil prices further?
Technically for sure. I know that many media made it look like this was some kind of super complicated operation that could only be performed by sinister secret services with access to amazing technology, but in fact a relatively small boat and two or three experienced divers are all you actually need in that area of the Baltic Sea. Keep in mind it is more like an oversized lake than a true sea.
Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russia alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian?
. 100+ modern MBT's plus all the Bradley, Marder, Stryker, etc etc, are going to arrive in the first wave. Expected to be at the end of next month. What the feck is that going to be too late for? Russia has gained literally nothing in the last 6 months of their offensives, unless you count the tiny village of Soledar as some sort of gain.
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Biden admin fecked up big time by not providing everything Ukraine needed when they were on the offensive, allowing Russia to mobilize and regroup. These slow and planned deliveries are doing no good. This could have been wrapped up ages ago now if the admin was more decisive, instead it’s prolonging this suffering.
Yes, it is a worry.
They may have twice as many men than they did in the invasion but they don't have twice as many rockets, artillery shells, armored vehicles and trucks as they had.
Russia isn't finished yet and still has moves it can make but western armies count firepower not manpower.
Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russian alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian?
Its common for Italians to give non Italian names. Not everyone in Italy is called Vito, Giovanni and Pietro. Ivan Grieco is the youtube channel owner and he tend to invite experts such as general Paolo Capitini who even served in the NATO and Mirco Campochiari who is an expert in military history. I believe that the latter has strong Polish origins (mother I think). He took some Italian Z sympathisers for some wild accusations thrown towards his direction (the usual neo nazi argument) and is planning to send any proceedings to Ukrainian NGOs to piss them off
The Bradley and the Marders are not MBTs. The Challenger 2, the Leopards and the Abrams are. The Leopards are set to be functional in maybe 3 months time (the earliest) due to logistics and training. The latter might even take a year. Also note that out of the 341 tanks, 99 of them are T74s from Morocco and another 30 are T72 from Poland
Check the video on 2:22