I started looking into this for a post in the Pogba thread, but the results were interesting enough that I wanted to post them here as their own discussion.
Many fans over the last few years have felt our midfield balance has been all wrong, and put forward a number of different 'solutions' to that. The most common criticism was that Pogba should not be playing in a midfield two, and instead should be pushed into more of a free role with two more defensive midfielders behind him. In the past the most common combination that people wanted to see was Pogba-Matic-Herrera. The only two times we ever saw that combination get a proper run of games was towards the end of 17/18 (although Fellaini was also in there sometimes instead of Matic or Herrera) and after Ole came in. We remember both as some of our best periods but I wasn't sure if that was accurate or just what we wanted to remember, so I started looking into the stats. I'm only going into the league games, partly because cup games are all over the place in terms of opposition strength and partly because I can't be bothered doubling the games I need to look into.
In the two years that we had all three of Pogba, Matic and Herrera in the team, they played just 15 league games together. 12 wins, 2 draws and just the one loss. What's more, the loss and one draw came in the first two games they ever played together, which means in the next 13 games we had 12 wins and a draw. Raises the question why the hell didn't we see it more? It's literally up there with the form that City and Liverpool have showed over the last few years.
Of course Herrera then left at the end of 18/19, and I think most people replaced him in their 'ideal midfield' with Fred (I could be wrong with that but I feel it was a bit more wanted than having McTominay in there). Fred is a similar type of all-action player, probably a bit more of a playmaker from deep and better at passing long, whereas Herrera is better at passing through the centre and making an impact around the opposition box. Similar enough that it's the obvious replacement though. Pogba-Matic-Fred played six times in 18/19 for 3 wins and 3 draws, but that was Fred's first season while he was struggling massively with the English game so I don't think it's particularly relevant to the discussion. He came back a completely different player the following season but we've never seen that combination step onto the field at the same time again since.
We then bought Bruno in January. With Pogba injured at the time, Bruno slotted into that role and we did actually see Bruno-Matic-Fred in four games. We won three and drew one*. Pogba then returned and Fred was dropped, and although we kept playing well for a few games and continued winning until the end of the season, our play definitely did start dropping off. How much of that was the Pogba-Fred switch and how much of that was just general tiredness with all the games in short succession after the lockdown, nobody knows.
*Edit: Actually, I just realised that the Everton draw had all three of Fred, Matic and McTominay playing. So Bruno-Matic-Fred was three wins in three games.
That's where we are today. If we take the two more defensive midfielders anchoring with one attacking midfielder with a free role (Pogba) or outright #10 (Bruno) as our preferred system, we've only played our strongest midfield 19 times over the course of three seasons. Literally 1/6th of the time. And in those 19 games we've won 15, drawn 3 and lost 1. If we maintained that over an entire season it's 96 points, right up there with the insane pace that City and Liverpool have been going at.
There's two big questions coming from these stats. One looking backwards at what has been, and one looking forward into the future.
Firstly, if this has worked so well in the past why haven't we played it more often? Partly injury of course as Pogba and to a lesser extent Matic have spent some time injured, but still. If us fans can see something should in theory be our best and the stats themselves show that it is our best, why have we wasted three seasons of trying other things, most notably Pogba in a midfield two next to a fairly slow and immobile Matic? Surely we should have tried to build on having those two more defensive midfielders providing the solid base and Pogba in a more free role, something that has proven to be our most successful tactic over that period of time? Or is it all just a coincidence that we've had so much success with it and I'm seeing too much into it?
Secondly, now that we've signed Bruno and he's done so well, how do we go forward in the future? Do we continue trying to fit both Pogba and Bruno in the same team as we have been doing? Maybe it'll come good, after all they did play well together when we first came back from lockdown last season. Do we continue trying to play them both together but change the system, perhaps to a diamond midfield so we can fit all four of Bruno, Pogba, Matic and Fred? Now that we've signed Telles maybe we can do that, although we'd still be struggling to get width on the right. Or do we cut our losses and let one of them go (almost certainly Pogba) and look to go back to that more solid base with the other in front of it? And of course we now have VDB in the reckoning. He seems to be another more attacking midfielder so it's difficult to see how he fits in as a starter, but he did play deeper earlier in his career with Ajax so maybe he can take one of those two roles?
Many fans over the last few years have felt our midfield balance has been all wrong, and put forward a number of different 'solutions' to that. The most common criticism was that Pogba should not be playing in a midfield two, and instead should be pushed into more of a free role with two more defensive midfielders behind him. In the past the most common combination that people wanted to see was Pogba-Matic-Herrera. The only two times we ever saw that combination get a proper run of games was towards the end of 17/18 (although Fellaini was also in there sometimes instead of Matic or Herrera) and after Ole came in. We remember both as some of our best periods but I wasn't sure if that was accurate or just what we wanted to remember, so I started looking into the stats. I'm only going into the league games, partly because cup games are all over the place in terms of opposition strength and partly because I can't be bothered doubling the games I need to look into.
In the two years that we had all three of Pogba, Matic and Herrera in the team, they played just 15 league games together. 12 wins, 2 draws and just the one loss. What's more, the loss and one draw came in the first two games they ever played together, which means in the next 13 games we had 12 wins and a draw. Raises the question why the hell didn't we see it more? It's literally up there with the form that City and Liverpool have showed over the last few years.
Of course Herrera then left at the end of 18/19, and I think most people replaced him in their 'ideal midfield' with Fred (I could be wrong with that but I feel it was a bit more wanted than having McTominay in there). Fred is a similar type of all-action player, probably a bit more of a playmaker from deep and better at passing long, whereas Herrera is better at passing through the centre and making an impact around the opposition box. Similar enough that it's the obvious replacement though. Pogba-Matic-Fred played six times in 18/19 for 3 wins and 3 draws, but that was Fred's first season while he was struggling massively with the English game so I don't think it's particularly relevant to the discussion. He came back a completely different player the following season but we've never seen that combination step onto the field at the same time again since.
We then bought Bruno in January. With Pogba injured at the time, Bruno slotted into that role and we did actually see Bruno-Matic-Fred in four games. We won three and drew one*. Pogba then returned and Fred was dropped, and although we kept playing well for a few games and continued winning until the end of the season, our play definitely did start dropping off. How much of that was the Pogba-Fred switch and how much of that was just general tiredness with all the games in short succession after the lockdown, nobody knows.
*Edit: Actually, I just realised that the Everton draw had all three of Fred, Matic and McTominay playing. So Bruno-Matic-Fred was three wins in three games.
That's where we are today. If we take the two more defensive midfielders anchoring with one attacking midfielder with a free role (Pogba) or outright #10 (Bruno) as our preferred system, we've only played our strongest midfield 19 times over the course of three seasons. Literally 1/6th of the time. And in those 19 games we've won 15, drawn 3 and lost 1. If we maintained that over an entire season it's 96 points, right up there with the insane pace that City and Liverpool have been going at.
There's two big questions coming from these stats. One looking backwards at what has been, and one looking forward into the future.
Firstly, if this has worked so well in the past why haven't we played it more often? Partly injury of course as Pogba and to a lesser extent Matic have spent some time injured, but still. If us fans can see something should in theory be our best and the stats themselves show that it is our best, why have we wasted three seasons of trying other things, most notably Pogba in a midfield two next to a fairly slow and immobile Matic? Surely we should have tried to build on having those two more defensive midfielders providing the solid base and Pogba in a more free role, something that has proven to be our most successful tactic over that period of time? Or is it all just a coincidence that we've had so much success with it and I'm seeing too much into it?
Secondly, now that we've signed Bruno and he's done so well, how do we go forward in the future? Do we continue trying to fit both Pogba and Bruno in the same team as we have been doing? Maybe it'll come good, after all they did play well together when we first came back from lockdown last season. Do we continue trying to play them both together but change the system, perhaps to a diamond midfield so we can fit all four of Bruno, Pogba, Matic and Fred? Now that we've signed Telles maybe we can do that, although we'd still be struggling to get width on the right. Or do we cut our losses and let one of them go (almost certainly Pogba) and look to go back to that more solid base with the other in front of it? And of course we now have VDB in the reckoning. He seems to be another more attacking midfielder so it's difficult to see how he fits in as a starter, but he did play deeper earlier in his career with Ajax so maybe he can take one of those two roles?
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