Odds of any European football next year, according to prediction/betting markets

[bb8]

Here are our relative odds of making it into European football next year, according to a few prediction + betting markets. Not perfect, but you'd assume these numbers are relatively accurate:

• Premier League: 6% chance of finishing in the top five spots according to Opta. Worth noting maybe Opta has us equally likely to finish 9th, 10th, or 11th, with those being the three most likely outcomes
• Europa League: ~17% odds of winning the trophy according to Oddschecker
• FA Cup (win would put us in Europa again next year): ~7% odds according to Oddschecker

All in all the odds are long. You can't just multiply the three probabilities because they aren't independent (e.g., an injury would hurt our odds in all three). If you did though we'd have only a 27% chance of playing European football next year.

What does it all mean? I'd certainly prioritize the Europa League, as our odds are about 3x higher winning that than qualifying via the others. If we get past Arsenal in the FA Cup and there are a couple other big upsets our odds could go up substantially via that route, but there's no UCL as a reward for winning so Europa should remain the focus even in that case.

 

[FootballHQ]

Your best chance is winning the Europa league.

I don't think you'll even reach 50 points in the league this season.

 

[pascell]

Your best chance is winning the Europa league.

I don't think you'll even reach 50 points in the league this season.

I said before the season started that by mid October, we'll be using the EL as a means into the CL. I think it was even before October we were relying on the EL but we're not even good enough to win that I don't think.