Israel - Palestine Discussion

At least 82 have been killed since they announced the ceasefire deal.

Their bloodlust knows no bounds.

 
I think it will hold for a time. If they try to continue annex the north, it will inevitably explode again.

I wonder if Trump isn't offering them the part of Syria they rushed to occupy as an alternative to the occupation of Gaza and whatever happens qua the West Bank. Trump will not want this to fall apart. It's now a legacy thing (his name has been put to it so he'll apply pressure on Israel in all sorts of ways you might not have seen others do). He wants to move on to Ukraine (and also other things in the Middle East which require a lasting ceasefire here).

Trump is not running again and so this is about redress of his own legacy (the next four years). He'll want peacedeals and then tradedeals. You do not need the ear of a donor so much once the race is won (though obviously there's a relationship there with Adelson... at the same time, he has many of these relationships). Being pro-Israel, which he is, is not necessarily pro-this-state-of-affairs which is anti-US interest with respect to the Abraham Accords.

With Trump: so far so good (re foreign policy pledges). Said would end the Gaza situation (genocide imo) re his Islamic base (which does exist even if small) in a campaign speech. Next is Russia. If he gets two of these done,, he has the best foreign policy record of any president since Clinton. Remains to be seen.
 
Oh look Israel doing a U-turn yet again and blaming Hamas. Let's see if Trump has the influence he claims and stops the constant stalling from Israel.
 
neverdie said:
I wonder if Trump isn't offering them the part of Syria they rushed to occupy as an alternative to the occupation of Gaza and whatever happens qua the West Bank. Trump will not want this to fall apart. It's now a legacy thing (his name has been put to it so he'll apply pressure on Israel in all sorts of ways you might not have seen others do). He wants to move on to Ukraine (and also other things in the Middle East which require a lasting ceasefire here).
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It seems Trump was holding a stick rather than a carrot when he forced Netanyahu to agree. I don't think this was about offering anything.
 
Smores said:
Oh look Israel doing a U-turn yet again and blaming Hamas. Let's see if Trump has the influence he claims and stops the constant stalling from Israel.
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Most of the noise from Israel is that the stalling is either due to Netanyahu, Smoetrich or both. So far it looks like usual Israeli shenanigans but the deal is still in place.
 
Looks like the Israelis couldn't help themselves and got a few more massacres in before the ceasefire. 70 dead overnight. Again, that's just become another statistic. Grim.
 
BBC live blog has this from one of their reporters

Hard line Israeli ministers who have threatened to quit the government want assurances that the war will resume in six weeks time after phase one of the deal.
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So is this just another temporary ceasefire?
 
Mr Pigeon said:
BBC live blog has this from one of their reporters



So is this just another temporary ceasefire?
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Israeli Broadcasting Corporation: Sources familiar with the negotiations say that any commitment by Netanyahu to his political partners to return to fighting in Gaza after the first phase is a violation of the agreement.

Probably the only entity that looks to violate their agreements before they even start.
 
Same ceasefire bullshit happened when Obama was inaugurated. It resumed 6 weeks later.

Let’s see if they make it that far this time.

All the media outlets fawning over this ceasefire have very short memories - pathetic really
 
stepic said:
Same ceasefire bullshit happened when Obama was inaugurated. It resumed 6 weeks later.

Let’s see if they make it that far this time.

All the media outlets fawning over this ceasefire have very short memories - pathetic really
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Portuguese media treated it like "Hitler is dead, peace in Europe!"
 
Mr Pigeon said:
BBC live blog has this from one of their reporters



So is this just another temporary ceasefire?
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Netaynahu is caught between the rock and the hard place. He'll do what he always does: Kick the ball forward and hope for the best. So he'll tell Smotrich that it's temporary. Who knows what'll happen in 42 days, that's a hell of a long time in Israeli politics.
 
Smores said:
Oh look Israel doing a U-turn yet again and blaming Hamas. Let's see if Trump has the influence he claims and stops the constant stalling from Israel.
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Netanyahu will suddenly sign it after all when Trump takes office and after weapons deals were signed without involving federal contracts. In sure some of our private merc units would love to use Israel as a "training ground".
 
Idxomer said:
At least 82 have been killed since they announced the ceasefire deal.

Their bloodlust knows no bounds.

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Israel and it seems most Israelis don't want peace, they want blood. I am convinced that even if Israel took all the land and expelled all Palestinians, they wouldn’t stop. Their bloodthirst would just spread to neighboring countries. Killing lesser people (as they see them) is just a political tool to be used to win elections, gain popularity.
 
Denis79 said:
Israel and it seems most Israelis don't want peace, they want blood. I am convinced that even if Israel took all the land and expelled all Palestinians, they wouldn’t stop. Their bloodthirst would just spread to neighboring countries. Killing lesser people (as they see them) is just a political tool to be used to win elections, gain popularity.
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Historically fascists rarely stop, they need to be stopped.
 
RedTiger said:
Ben Gvir resigned from the government.
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Well, we have one good outcome from all this clusterfeck at least.

Following this thread and the war in general has been an absolute miserable experience, and my Israeli friends went from moderate, sympathetic and normal people to absolute right wing extremists in a matter of less than a year to a point where I cannot even have a conversation anymore.
 
It is when the reporters (all of whom except for Palestinian, most of which were murdered) enter that the true scale of the destruction and proper deathcounts will be told. The Lancet had a figure of 200k. I think it's arguably around 100-150k dead. It definitely is not the 40k figure which has remained the same for many months because there is no internal counting mechanism left.

Could be talking about the systematic murder of 10%~ of an entire population.
 
neverdie said:
It is when the reporters (all of whom except for Palestinian, most of which were murdered) enter that the true scale of the destruction and proper deathcounts will be told. The Lancet had a figure of 200k. I think it's arguably around 100-150k dead. It definitely is not the 40k figure which has remained the same for many months because there is no internal counting mechanism left.

Could be talking about the systematic murder of 10%~ of an entire population.
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I think it will be well over 200k with famine and disease. Over 300k, but obviously without any proof
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Only well to find out is excess deaths but that in itself is incredibly difficult to calculate
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I agree. There are entire families that had been wiped out, registers burned. How you catalogue anything? thousands of babies born that were never registered and killed with their entire families. I don't think we will ever know. It will go with other genocides in history in a bracket X to X+100k
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Well, we have one good outcome from all this clusterfeck at least.

Following this thread and the war in general has been an absolute miserable experience, and my Israeli friends went from moderate, sympathetic and normal people to absolute right wing extremists in a matter of less than a year to a point where I cannot even have a conversation anymore.
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Similar. Granted there was only one in our university group. But shockingly a German mentor of mine (and tbh the person who built my career) also went the same way
 
neverdie said:
It is when the reporters (all of whom except for Palestinian, most of which were murdered) enter that the true scale of the destruction and proper deathcounts will be told. The Lancet had a figure of 200k. I think it's arguably around 100-150k dead. It definitely is not the 40k figure which has remained the same for many months because there is no internal counting mechanism left.

Could be talking about the systematic murder of 10%~ of an entire population.
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This is going to be horrific and people will have to deal with the knowledge that they went about life as normal as this happened
 
Does anyone really believe there will be peace? Israel will be back in there bombing within a couple of weeks blaming increased numbers of terrorists that need eliminating and they are sorry that 100 civilians were also eliminated in the process.
 
Although I believe this won't be the end of it, it's pleasing to know that there will be some respite for the Palestinians and Ben Gvir is stepping down.
 
Just read that the Nazi Zionist bastards will be meeting later today to vote on the ceasefire.

Fully expecting it to go through - and Israel to continue murdering - and for the worlds press to ignore it.
 
Denis79 said:
Israel and it seems most Israelis don't want peace, they want blood. I am convinced that even if Israel took all the land and expelled all Palestinians, they wouldn’t stop. Their bloodthirst would just spread to neighboring countries. Killing lesser people (as they see them) is just a political tool to be used to win elections, gain popularity.
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That’s exactly it. It’s an incredibly fecked up society.
 
Dans said:
Does anyone really believe there will be peace? Israel will be back in there bombing within a couple of weeks blaming increased numbers of terrorists that need eliminating and they are sorry that 100 civilians were also eliminated in the process.
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Peace? No. Sustained ceasefire? Possibly, and hopefully.

I believe the ceasefire will hold for the first 42-day stage. I have absolutely no idea where this will be going after this stage, which includes the release of 33 hostages/bodies from Gaza and of around 1,500 Palestenians/terrorists from Israeli jails.

There are too many moving parts. Netanyahu's coalition could be in trouble if he goes forward with the next stage in the deal after those 42 days rather than go back to war, and sustaining power is the most important thing for him - but if Trump is insistent he wants a permanent ceasefire then I'm not sure what will happen. I'm not sure Netanyahu knows. There's been zero strategy from Israel after October 7 other than continuing the war and making it up as it goes along.
 
Dans said:
Does anyone really believe there will be peace? Israel will be back in there bombing within a couple of weeks blaming increased numbers of terrorists that need eliminating and they are sorry that 100 civilians were also eliminated in the process.
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There's no way in hell this "cease-fire" is going to last. No way.

I doubt that it will even hold the six weeks of the first phase. Israel will break it the moment it deems enough hostages have made it back. It doesn't even have to be all of them.
 
That_Bloke said:
There's no way in hell this "cease-fire" is going to last. No way.

I doubt that it will even hold the six weeks of the first phase. Israel will break it the moment it deems enough hostages have made it back. It doesn't even have to be all of them.
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There are 33 families who were told their loved ones will be returning, or at least they'll discover their fate (if they died and their bodies are returned). There will be an outrage of major proportion if those 33 don't get their closure, and it will require those six weeks.

So I do think it will last for those weeks at least.
 
Idxomer said:
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I always wondered about this. Especially with the way the news reports it, and makes a distinction between Israeli hostages and Palestinian "prisoners". The use of the word presumes that they're criminals of some kind.
 

Gaza ceasefire deal: Hamas, Egypt and Qatar pushing for Marwan Barghouti's release​


Egypt and Qatar, alongside Hamas, are using "all means available" to secure the release of Marwan Barghouti as part of the Gaza ceasefire agreement between the group and Israel, three sources informed on the negotiations have told Middle East Eye.

The long-imprisoned Palestinian political leader is on a list “of around one hundred senior Palestinian prisoners” being discussed ahead of the second phase of the truce deal, a source close to the negotiations said.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/...ease-being-discussed-part-phase-two-ceasefire
 
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