Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

Kaos said:
There'd have to be a collective effort from European nations to effectively sanction them as an economic bloc, but really no one wants to blink first and be the ones to take on all the heavy political capital that comes with holding Israel to account, not with the threat of the US essentially blackmailing them. But many of them are on board with it anyway - the UK pretty much follows through with whatever the Yanks want, Hungary because they're governed by a proto-fascist, and Germany - projecting their own historical guilt? A fetish for always being on the wrong side of history? Take your pick. The Ukraine parallels are irrelevant because unlike Putin, Israel/US are not considered adversaries.

As for the UN, at the highest level (the Security Council) its pretty much been rendered obsolete because of the US vetoing any resolution that so much as looks at Israel funny. Giving hegemons like Russia, China and the US a veto has pretty much doomed it to becoming an ineffective body.

The only possible way things change is if this becomes an electoral issue in the US where vehemently opposing Israel goes from being political suicide to a vote winner. This is why there's been such vicious crackdowns, both physically and via the media on the student protests, as they can't have the narrative of Israel being an aggressive genocidal colony perpetuate.
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Yeah I get that Israel always play the victim card based on historical events to not to be held accountable for their current actions and you don't have to look that far in history to get the "allowance" to pretty much start killing civilians with the underlying support of the leading nations. It's really ridiculous. There were some vows for sanctions from Borrell from memory but that died down quickly with little effect making it even less likely someone to take action.

Problem is if Republicans win in the US it's bleak situation for Ukraine, whilst Dems most likely will continue to support Israel by all means possible which can escalate the whole conflict in the Middle East. The double standards are ridiculous and seems no one cares about the non Israeli population on the peninsula.

I thought, personally, that allowing Palestine to have a state and recognized international borders would probably be a step in containing the constant conflict, but seeing Israel just walking past Lebanon border - an international state recognized by everybody and start bombing civilians with zero accountability - makes me wonder if there's even point in doing that..

That_Bloke said:
Not going to happen as aside from the US, France, the UK, and especially Germany will undoubtedly vote against it.

They are much, much worse than Russia.
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I'm not sure at this point but quickly getting there. The amount of casualties is staggering.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Of the arab states you've listed, all of them remain theocratic or completely dictatorial puppets in one form or the other. Ask an Egyptian how Egypt has been under General Sisi. Saudi Arabia being a comparison to Iran is ridiculous, Saudi Arabia doesn't have the domestic dissent that Iran does. Saudi Arabia can afford certain domestic policies whereas Iran cannot.

The only country out of the Arab spring to have come out more democratic and liberal is Tunisia. Everywhere else is still the same shit just layered with a different colour of paint.
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I don't disagree. Your points have been my points for many years (with respect to every Arab state). I just cannot see where you pessimism regarding Iranian future comes into play? What am I missing.

As to the other poster, it isn't in GDP but PPP terms. Will have to source that again, was in scholarly journals. It's a forecast into 2050 and beyond. Iranians, are, insofar as I can tell, playing the long game (as are most Arab states, of significance, with respect to BRICS and then the US/EU). Iran, too, may well become a BRICS member.

In PPP terms, Iran's economy has almost doubled in the space of five years. That doesn't tell the whole story or paint the entire picture, for obvious reasons of GDP balance within that, but it's more than comparable to Egypt over that same period. By this one metric alone, Iran is in the world's top 20 economies. Many economists will take PPP over GDP for all manner of nuanced reasons probably too complex to be discussed outside of a five hour debate.
 
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Spark said:
Can you share that forecast?

The current sanctions are crippling the country, with inflation at 30-40%. Iran is nothing like Saudi Arabia, Egypt or any other country in the middle east - purely because it is a pariah state forced to sell it’s oil to China for cheap, locked out of international banking systems and closed off to all foreign investment.

However, it is highly literate and could easily get to the level of Turkey if constraints were removed - you just need a lot to happen for that to become reality. The biggest and main thing being a change in regime. Until that happens, Iran isn't going to be anywhere near a top 10 economy.
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The sanctioning bodies will be 50% of the developing nations in economic terms by 2050. As of now, this developing group is already larger than the G7 (which is the primary sanctioning body via international institutions).
 
jadaba said:
I haven't been active much here for a few months, and forgive me if I'm mistaking you with another poster, but in my memory I recall that you were often relatively defensive of Israel's actions (never blindly so, always with limits) and this seems to have quite dramatically changed. If this isn't mistaken poster identity then do you mind if I ask what it is that caused such a shift? The answers are probably obvious but I'm intrigued to know.
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I never was firmly "pro-Israel", more so in the fact that I had worked with the IDF before, have a few Israeli friends, and when Oct 7th began I had a lot of sympathy for them and could understand why their initial actions were done the way they were.
The most I've ever come to "defending" Israel is more along the technicality lines, to make sure that our discourse is as accurate as possible: For example, the claim that Israel was using banned white-phosphorus munitions was discussed on here and I argued that they were not war crimes.
I also do the same for Ukraine-Russia war, and have often criticized Ukraine and the pro-AFU propoganda that is spewed on the internet despite being the most pro-Ukraine person on here.

What changed?

1. Unrelentless bombing of civilians that went way beyond the norms of targeted strikes.
2. The conduct of the IDF and their complete disregard for life.
3. The piling of massacres after massacres.

I've spent a lot of time in the Middle East, and have friends in Syria and Lebanon. Recently, quite a few of them have been in the vicinity of Israeli bombs and they live in regions that are residential, have no connection to any "Terror org" and it just seems like Israel is just bombing for the sake of bombing. Last night was an example.

All this culminated in me thinking that there needs to be a systemic governmental change in Israel. And possibly an enforced cultural change.
 
neverdie said:
Not in the long-term. It will explode, one way or another. They are in charge now, though, and that's clear.
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Part of me wish and hope you were right. The other knows that unless Israel really gets a bloody nose, it's a foregone conclusion.

AfonsoAlves said:
BBC tries hard, sometimes too hard, to try and seem impartial to anything.

Both Pro-Israel and Pro-Palestine people have attacked the BBC for siding with the "other."

Same for the Ukraine war.
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There's nothing impartial in the BBC reporting. Nothing.

Their wording and hair splitting, their carefully selected show of images, the depiction of the situation and the events, the guests they invite. They're only trying hard to pretend to be impartial. Anyone who thinks that the BBC doesn't have a dog in that race is kidding themselves.

The Guardian is the only major UK media that still gives a somewhat fair account of what's happening in the Middle-East and worth the read.
 


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That_Bloke said:
Part of me wish and hope you were right. The other knows that unless Israel really gets a bloody nose, it's a foregone conclusion.


There's nothing impartial in the BBC reporting. Nothing.

Their wording and hair splitting, their carefully selected show of images, the depiction of the situation and the events, the guests they invite. They're only trying hard to pretend to be impartial. Anyone who thinks that the BBC doesn't have a dog in that race is kidding themselves.

The Guardian is the only major UK media that still gives a somewhat fair account of what's happening in the Middle-East and worth the read.
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They do the exact same for Ukraine. At first it really pissed me off but then I realized that's just who they are.

headlines such as "Bomb explodes in Dnipro killing 20" or "15 dead after apartment bombing"
 
Over the last year people have rightly been asking why America isn’t stopping Israel. It’s very likely that America simply wholeheartedly agrees and is encouraging Israel actions.
 
Sweet Square said:
Over the last year people have rightly been asking why America isn’t stopping Israel. It’s very likely that America simply wholeheartedly agrees and is encouraging Israel actions.
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This is increasingly looking like the actual, ugly truth.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
They do the exact same for Ukraine. At first it really pissed me off but then I realized that's just who they are.

headlines such as "Bomb explodes in Dnipro killing 20" or "15 dead after apartment bombing"
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I know.

I've learnt to just steer clear from any mainstream media. There's absolutely no point in relying on them for any objective information.

My two exceptions are the Guardian and Le Monde (when it comes to the Ukraine War) although I still take anything they publish with a healthy dose of salt.
 
Sweet Square said:
Over the last year people have rightly been asking why America isn’t stopping Israel. It’s very likely that America simply wholeheartedly agrees and is encouraging Israel actions.
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In the end I think it'll all be seen as a series of escalations designed to stop Iranian nuclear capabilities. Destroying Iranian proxies and allies is the route of least risk and a necessary prerequisite on any action against Iran.

I'd be shocked if this doesn't end up with a full scale attack on Iran. They're just waiting for the right series of escalations to sell the narrative then it'll be done.
 
Sweet Square said:
Over the last year people have rightly been asking why America isn’t stopping Israel. It’s very likely that America simply wholeheartedly agrees and is encouraging Israel actions.
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It is the history of the Biden/ USA after all.
 
According to many accounts on Twitter Iran has started the launch of missiles.
 
VorZakone said:
According to many accounts on Twitter Iran has started the launch of missiles.
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didn't they do this exact same song-and-dance a few months ago? threaten a response, tell the US what, when the reponse is, and then fire knowing that everything is going to get intercepted?
 
Enigma_87 said:
I'm not sure at this point but quickly getting there. The amount of casualties is staggering.
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Forget about the largely underestimated casualties (the Lancet estimated the death toll in Gaza at around 186,000, 10% of the population, and that was in last June).

The IDF's rules of engagement are very simple: there's none.

We are talking about an army that:

- Flattens a whole neighborhood in the hope of catching one guy.
- Systematically destroys houses, hospitals, cemetaries, schools and any civilian infrastructures to make a piece of land completely unhabitable.
- Uses Palestinian civilians as human shields and basically human dogs to uncover booby traps.
- Snipes children and toddlers.
- Systematically uses rape and torture on its prisoners.

The IDF is catching up to the Wehrmacht.
 
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That's what happens when no one bothers to say "stop" to the maniacs.
 
berbatrick said:
didn't they do this exact same song-and-dance a few months ago? threaten a response, tell the US what, when the reponse is, and then fire knowing that everything is going to get intercepted?
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It's very likely yeah that this was telegraphed to the US/Israel too to limit the damage.
 
That's what happens when no one bothers to say "stop" to the maniacs.
 
berbatrick said:
didn't they do this exact same song-and-dance a few months ago? threaten a response, tell the US what, when the reponse is, and then fire knowing that everything is going to get intercepted?
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I think that it won't be as telegraphied this time.
 
Is this an exercise in saving face for the Iranian regime or genuine or too early to say?
 
berbatrick said:
didn't they do this exact same song-and-dance a few months ago? threaten a response, tell the US what, when the reponse is, and then fire knowing that everything is going to get intercepted?
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In the last time, didn't they themselves spend days telegraphing what they were going to do, tell the Americans and then announced it themselves?

This time they've launched the missiles with little notice and not announced anything themselves.
 
That_Bloke said:
What did you expect?
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Preferably not walk right into the Israeli trap that may precipitate a direct American response.

All of this could have been avoided if Israel was reined in even a little bit over the past year.
 
HTG said:
Is this an exercise in saving face for the Iranian regime or genuine or too early to say?
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Saving face. They perfectly know that against USA/Israel they don't have a chance. It will end the same as last time. All rockets will be shot down, Israel will fire few back and that is it.
 
africanspur said:
In the last time, didn't they themselves spend days telegraphing what they were going to do, tell the Americans and then announced it themselves?

This time they've launched the missiles with little notice and not announced anything themselves.
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This morning US officials said that attack will happen today.
Only exact hour and minute was missing.
 
africanspur said:
Preferably not walk right into the Israeli trap that may precipitate a direct American response.

All of this could have been avoided if Israel was reined in even a little bit over the past year.
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Iran had absolutely no choice. Israel is absolutely bent on a war no matter what they do.

It banked on appeasement and look at how it turned out.

They just couldn't let Hezbollah go down without any kind of response. That's their whole strategy in the region going out the window.

And you can bet on them now trying to get nukes by any means necessary.
 
Andycoleno9 said:
Saving face. They perfectly know that against USA/Israel they don't have a chance. It will end the same as last time. All rockets will be shot down, Israel will fire few back and that is it.
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ARD reported that at least one missile made it past the iron dome, but likely without casualties for now. I hope it remains a face saving operation. Feels like it right now.
 
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