Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

The problem lies in the fact that irans tactics for opposing western influence is to quite literally sow chaos and anarchy and factional infighting in otherwise functional countries. It has created a shit tonne of resentment in the Arab world.

Whilst the west is critical of Saudi Arabia for the Yemeni crisis, much of the Arab world blames Iran.

Irans idea of hegemonic opposition is to give militiamen ballistic missiles to fire at population centres who are also Muslims and not even western.

Ultimately this is a bit of an own goal. Take for example Syria, which is ruled by the Alawi who have a natural disposition towards Iranian Shia’s despite being much more secular in nature. Well after the way Iranian proxies “assisted” bashar, they’ve alienated most of the Syrian population.

Irans geopolitical strategy should have been to provide an alternative power base to the American led system and try to bridge sectarian divides, instead it alienates its potential Arab partners by having its militiamen running around causing chaos and anarchy.
Tbh, this animosity sourced from when pretty much the entire (largely Sunni) Arab world (along with the US) had encouraged Saddam to wage war on Iran. Iran of course has only since fanned the sectarian divide, particularly with their support of Shia militias in Iraq and Lebanon as well as support for the unpopular Alawi leader in Syria.

My point being is culpability doesn't solely rest on Iran in terms of exacerbating sectarian strife in the region. Heck the Arab world intervened very quickly when it looked like Shia majority Bahrain was about to be the next domino in the Arab spring.

Though from what I understand Saudi-Iranian relations have improved in the last year or so, with China acting as the mediator. Likely explains Saudi's withdrawal from the Yemen campaign as well as the general hostile rhetoric being toned down. My guess is that's probably spooked the US and Israel as the sectarian divide benefits them from a hegemonic perspective.
 
The problem lies in the fact that irans tactics for opposing western influence is to quite literally sow chaos and anarchy and factional infighting in otherwise functional countries. It has created a shit tonne of resentment in the Arab world.

Whilst the west is critical of Saudi Arabia for the Yemeni crisis, much of the Arab world blames Iran.

Irans idea of hegemonic opposition is to give militiamen ballistic missiles to fire at population centres who are also Muslims and not even western.

Ultimately this is a bit of an own goal. Take for example Syria, which is ruled by the Alawi who have a natural disposition towards Iranian Shia’s despite being much more secular in nature. Well after the way Iranian proxies “assisted” bashar, they’ve alienated most of the Syrian population.

Irans geopolitical strategy should have been to provide an alternative power base to the American led system and try to bridge sectarian divides, instead it alienates its potential Arab partners by having its militiamen running around causing chaos and anarchy.
There's plenty to criticize about Iran and I personally hate its backward, theocratic regime. It's holding back a wonderful people with one of the oldest and greatest civilizations the world's ever known, and more History in their pinkie than the US and many other countries in the world could ever dream of. The sooner the Iranians get rid of them, the better.

Yet I'm still not really onboard with this common, oversimplified western rhetoric used to paint Iran as the pantomime villain in the region who wakes up every day with only one thought in mind "Whose day I'm gonna ruin today?". It fits a bit too nicely with the widespread racist propaganda (not directed at you) of the brown savages who only want to blow shit up. Just because. After all, that's who they are and what they do.

The reality is that Iran has been under siege and an unprecedented embargo since 1979, the Islamic Revolution being ironically a direct consequence of the West's meddling, particularly the US and the UK. The US purposefully let the Shah they put in place be overthrown by Khomeini, when he ceased to be useful. Iran went from trustworthy ally to the worst thing since Hitler the moment it stopped aligning with the US views on the region.

Saddam Hussein was encouraged and massively backed by the West and US to launch and wage its war against Iran, before they offed him when he outstayed his welcome and threatened their interests in the region. Even the Soviet Union was part of it. There's been constant assassinations campaigns in Iran supported by the West and mostly carried out by Israel. Nobody in the West found it problematic now, did they?

For decades, especially the last 20 years, the West and Israel basically made a mockery of international laws, legalized extrajudicial murder as a way of solving problems and called it a win. We're currently seeing its paroxysm in Lebanon, with an awful lot of self-righteous cretins, some of them in this very thread, cheering on.

The fact that Iran is majoritarily Shiite automatically made it an enemy for the Sunni regimes in the region. Particularly Saudi Arabia and its prehistoric theocracy which always likes to posture as the guardian and defender of Islam (as if). SA always had Iran in its crosshairs and considered it as its nemesis in the region, for both strategic and ideological reasons. The animosity between the two kinda went down a bit, thanks to China's recent mediation, but it's fragile and doesn't serve the US or Israel's interests at all. Bin Salman will also definitely stab Iran in the back at the first opportunity.

Then you have Israel, and I don't need to remind you of the love affair between the two. By the way, Israel sold Iran military equipment during the Iran-Iraq war with the US' approval. I'm certain that you're aware of it, but ain't that hilarious?

So all in all, Iran has been in a fight for survival on all fronts for 45 years, against overwhelming odds. It must do so without any capacity to project any of its vastly inferior military power due to international sanctions. Without the spider web in the region it patiently wove in the last four decades, indeed using sectarian divisions in the region, Iran would've been toast, just like Iraq, Syria or Lybia. It's still not out of the woods, only acquiring nukes will get it to the safe zone. Banking on a shitload of missiles and distributing them to its proxies, was in retrospect the only way to go, given the amount of its declared, powerful enemies and since it doesn't have any Navy or Air Force one can decently speak of.

The Syrian Civil War is a direct byproduct of the US invasion of Iraq which gave birth to ISIS. The latter was part of the uprising against the Syrian regime, alongside many other extremist Salafi groups, like Al Nusra whose wounded militants were treated by Israel.

Bashar Al Assad just doesn't belong to the good dictators the US usually supports and protects. He turned to Iran and Russia, which makes it a reason good enough to get rid of him. That's why the US, and more importantly Israel, wanted and still want him gone. Does that make him a good guy? Hell no, and the resentment most of the Syrian population harbors against him and Iran's interference is completely justified.

I fully understand what you're saying, but Iran couldn't afford that when its own existence is at stake, and the rest of the Arab countries in the region have agreed to always disagree. The sectarian divides are thousands of years old and have been fuelled for centuries by foreign major powers who have every interest in keeping it that way. Solely pinning the blame on Iran is just ideologically narrow-minded and wilfully ignoring the local dynamics that have been at play for decades, if not centuries.

That's not something Iran can solve on its own. Certainly not when its house is besieged and constantly at risk of burning. Furthermore, there never was any chance for Iran to wear the savior's mantle, as Shia followers largely remain a minority among muslims and are generally frowned upon. Currently that role could only realistically go to Turkey but Erdoğan is a backward blowhard.

The only chance for the muslim world to become what it aspires to be is to go past its internal divisions and find a modern interpretation of a religion in desperate need of one. Then completely leave it out of politics and put it where any religion belongs, a strictly personal sphere. Atatürk once showed the way, a pity he's never really been emulated since. The closest example ironically being Reza Shah.

The first thing towards mending the situation in the Middle-East would be for the West to treat Iran and Israel as normal countries and fecking get the US out of there. The US is the equivalent of locusts and a plague in the region. Nothing will change as long as these leeches are hanging around there.
 
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The problem lies in the fact that irans tactics for opposing western influence is to quite literally sow chaos and anarchy and factional infighting in otherwise functional countries. It has created a shit tonne of resentment in the Arab world.

Whilst the west is critical of Saudi Arabia for the Yemeni crisis, much of the Arab world blames Iran.

Irans idea of hegemonic opposition is to give militiamen ballistic missiles to fire at population centres who are also Muslims and not even western.

Ultimately this is a bit of an own goal. Take for example Syria, which is ruled by the Alawi who have a natural disposition towards Iranian Shia’s despite being much more secular in nature. Well after the way Iranian proxies “assisted” bashar, they’ve alienated most of the Syrian population.

Irans geopolitical strategy should have been to provide an alternative power base to the American led system and try to bridge sectarian divides, instead it alienates its potential Arab partners by having its militiamen running around causing chaos and anarchy.

your view here is very simplistic and lacks the depth and the complexity of the Sunni-Shia conflict pre and post the US invasion of Iraq.
 
There's plenty to criticize about Iran and I personally hate its backward, theocratic regime. It's holding back a wonderful people with one of the oldest and greatest civilizations the world's ever known, and more History in their pinkie than the US and many other countries in the world could ever dream of. The sooner the Iranians get rid of them, the better.

Yet I'm still not really onboard with this common, oversimplified western rhetoric used to paint Iran as the pantomime villain in the region who wakes up every day with only one thought in mind "Whose day I'm gonna ruin today?". It fits a bit too nicely with the widespread racist propaganda (not directed at you) of the brown savages who only want to blow shit up. Just because. After all, that's who they are and what they do.

The reality is that Iran has been under siege and an unprecedented embargo since 1979, the Islamic Revolution being ironically a direct consequence of the West's meddling, particularly the US and the UK. The US purposefully let the Shah they put in place be overthrown, when he ceased to be useful. Iran went from trustworthy ally to the worst thing since Hitler the moment it stopped aligning with the US views on the region.

Saddam Hussein was encouraged and massively backed by the West and US, before they offed him when he outstayed his welcome and threatened their interests in the region, to launch and wage its war against Iran. Even the Soviet Union was part of it. There's been constant assassinations campaigns in Iran supported by the West and mostly carried out by Israel. Nobody in the West found it problematic now, did they?

For decades, especially the last 20 years, the West and Israel basically made a mockery of international laws, legalized extra-judicial murder as a way of solving problems and called it a win. We're currently seeing its paroxysm in Lebanon, with an awful lot of self-righteous cretins, some of them in this very thread, cheering on.

The fact that Iran is majoritarily Shiite automatically makes it an enemy for the Sunni regimes in the region. Particularly Saudi Arabia and its prehistoric theocracy which always likes to posture as the guardian and defender of Islam (as if). SA always had Iran in its crosshairs and considered it as its nemesis in the region, for both strategic and ideological reasons. The animosity between the two kinda went down a bit, thanks to China's recent mediation, but it's fragile and doesn't serve the US or Israel's interests at all. Bin Salman will also definitely stab Iran in the back at the first opportunity.

Then you have Israel, and I don't need to remind you of the love affair between the two. By the way, Israel sold Iran military equipment during the Iran-Iraq war. I'm certain that you're aware of it, but ain't that hilarious?

So all in all, Iran has been in a fight for survival on all fronts for 45 years, against overwhelming odds. It must do so without any capacity to project any of its vastly inferior military power due to international sanctions. Without the spider web in the region it patiently wove in the last four decades, indeed using sectarian divisions in the region, Iran would've been toast, just like Iraq, Syria or Lybia. It's still not out of the woods, only acquiring nukes will get it to the safe zone. Banking on a shitload of missiles and distributing them to its proxies, was in retrospect the only way to go, given the amount of its declared, powerful enemies and since it doesn't have any Navy or Air Force one can decently speak of.

The Syrian Civil War is a direct byproduct of the US invasion of Iraq which gave birth to ISIS. The latter is part of the uprising against the Syrian regime, alongside many other extremist Salafi groups, like Al Nusra whose wounded militants were treated by Israel.

Bashar Al Assad just doesn't belong to the good dictators the US usually supports and protects. He turned to Iran and Russia, which makes it a reason good enough to get rid of him. That's why the US, and more importantly Israel, wanted and still want him gone. Does that make him a good guy? Hell no, and the resentment most of the Syrian population harbors against him and Iran's interference is completely justified.

I fully understand what you're saying, but Iran couldn't afford that when its own existence is at stake, and the rest of the Arab countries in the region have agreed to always disagree. The sectarian divides are thousands of years old and have been fuelled for centuries by major powers who have every interest in keeping it that way. Solely pinning the blame on Iran is just ideologically narrow-minded and wilfully ignoring the local dynamics that have been at play for decades, if not centuries.

That's not something Iran can solve on its own. Certainly not when its house is besieged and constantly at risk of burning. Furthermore, there never was any chance for Iran to wear the savior's mantle, as Shia followers largely remain a minority among muslims and are generally frowned upon. Currently that role could only realistically go to Turkey but Erdoğan is a backward blowhard.

The only chance for the muslim world to become what it aspires to be is to go past its internal divisions and find a modern interpretation of a religion in desperate need of one. Then completely leave it out of politics and put it where any religion belongs to, a strictly personal matter. Atatürk once showed the way, a pity he's never really been emulated since. The closest example ironically being Reza Shah.

The first thing towards mending the situation in the Middle-East would be for the West to treat Iran and Israel as normal countries and fecking get the US out of there. The US is the equivalent of locusts and a plague in the region. Nothing will change as long as these leeches are hanging around there.
The only thing I would add was Atatürk was also a quasi-genocidal tyrant despite his work to secularise Turkey. As a Kurd it's a bit of a sore point, especially considering the pogroms and ethnic cleansing initiatives he spearheaded against Kurds. I'm sure Armenians would echo the same sentiments.

But otherwise excellent post regarding the rest.
 
"Escalate to de-escalate" is not necessarily a new phrase, though it sounds weird of course.

It's a stupid phrase. You will not be safe by killing more children. You might put them on some pause, but that will only make them more angry and revengeful. In it's best case scenario its a temporary tactic. Have people learned nothing from fecking history? FFS.

Orwellian
 
It's a stupid phrase. You will not be safe by killing more children. You might put them on some pause, but that will only make them more angry and revengeful. In it's best case scenario its a temporary tactic. Have people learned nothing from fecking history? FFS.

Orwellian

The actual term is escalation dominance and it’s been the official US policy for responding to threats since mid 1990s.
 
The only thing I would add was Atatürk was also a quasi-genocidal tyrant despite his work to secularise Turkey. As a Kurd it's a bit of a sore point, especially considering the pogroms and ethnic cleansing initiatives he spearheaded against Kurds. I'm sure Armenians would echo the same sentiments.

But otherwise excellent post regarding the rest.
As far as I know, he had zero involvement in the Armenian Genocide carried out between 1915 and 1917.

He only was a middle ranking officer in the Ottoman Army, fighting the British Empire in the Dardanelles campaign. One can wonder about how much he knew, but I personally doubt he had the full picture of what happened at the time.

The other tragedy in the Middle-East, sadly less talked about, is the Kurdish one. Palestinians and Kurds are the two peoples in the region who were properly shafted. I'll defer to your knowledge when it comes to this part.
 
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US bent on dying on this hill. They look silly.
How? This has been their default policy for a while.
As far as I know, he had zero involvement in the Armenian Genocide carried out between 1915 and 1917.

He only was a middle ranking officer in the Ottoman Army, fighting the British Empire in the Dardanelles campaign. One can wonder about how much he knew, but I personally doubt he had the full picture of what happened at the time.

The other tragedy in the Middle-East which is sadly less talked about is the Kurdish one. Palestinians and Kurds are the two peoples in the region who were properly shafted. I'll defer to your knowledge when it comes to this part.
i think you misread again. He’s talking about Kurds not the Armenians haha
 
How? This has been their default policy for a while.

i think you misread again. He’s talking about Kurds not the Armenians haha
"I'm sure Armenians would echo the same sentiments."

Doesn't look to me like I'm misreading his post.
 
As far as I know, he had zero involvement in the Armenian Genocide carried out between 1915 and 1917.

He only was a middle ranking officer in the Ottoman Army, fighting the British Empire in the Dardanelles campaign. One can wonder about how much he knew, but I personally doubt he had the full picture of what happened at the time.

The other tragedy in the Middle-East, sadly less talked about, is the Kurdish one. Palestinians and Kurds are the two peoples in the region who were properly shafted. I'll defer to your knowledge when it comes to this part.
Oh I'm aware he was off fighting the ANZAC forces in Gallipoli during the events of the genocide, its more his sentiments towards the Armenians (and others) during his time as President of the first Turkish republic. He was a vehement ethno-nationalist who from what I understand did all he could to prevent the survivors of the genocide returning to Turkey and ordered this troops to 'eliminate Armenia politically and physically' during the 1920 Turkish war on Armenia, where his troops massacred approximately 100,000 Armenians. Going by his genocidal endeavours against the Kurds, I don't think it would have been a stretch to have expected him to extend the same 'courtesy' to Armenians if a sizeable population still remained in Turkey.
 
Honest hand-on-heart question from an irregular poster in this thread:

What are the realistic chances of a ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel?
 
Honest hand-on-heart question from an irregular poster in this thread:

What are the realistic chances of a ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel?
The whole nation? Unlikely, they wouldn't stand a chance holding on to it without US support. They were booted out of Southern Lebanon by Hezbollah in 2000, and the 2006 campaign was a pretty costly one for them too.

Its still feasible they might plan another offensive into Southern Lebanon, more so if Trump is elected. Considering Netanyahu is desperate for Israel to stay in a perpetual state of war to keep him in office (and out of jail), I wouldn't exactly rule it out.
 

What a beautiful country. Minister of education calling for an anhiliation of the whole country and calling civilians responsible. And it will just pass, unnoticed.

It isnt the 1st nor the last time sadly Israel is bombing Lebanon. Its the ground invasion where they usually fail and it will be interesting to see if they'll try it again. Knowing Netanyahu who seems to want all out war they might try it again.
 
What a beautiful country. Minister of education calling for an anhiliation of the whole country and calling civilians responsible. And it will just pass, unnoticed.

It isnt the 1st nor the last time sadly Israel is bombing Lebanon. Its the ground invasion where they usually fail and it will be interesting to see if they'll try it again. Knowing Netanyahu who seems to want all out war they might try it again.
Going by today's standards, that might earn him at least dozen or two standing ovations at the US congress.
 
But otherwise excellent post regarding the rest.
I don't have time to pick the post apart at this moment, but it's really not "excellent" - it's a very, very simplistic take on a complex set of internal and external events that ignores, just for starters, the complex internal reasons behind the Iranian revolution, the reason why the US took a stand against Saddam "outstaying his welcome", the context of the Cold War, etc, etc all so the US can be painted the unambiguous "cause" of the problem.
 
I don't have time to pick the post apart at this moment, but it's really not "excellent" - it's a very, very simplistic take on a complex set of internal and external events that ignores, just for starters, the complex internal reasons behind the Iranian revolution, the reason why the US took a stand against Saddam "outstaying his welcome", the context of the Cold War, etc, etc all so the US can be painted the unambiguous "cause" of the problem.
That's a lot of double quotes.

I'm also more than aware of the internal reasons that lead to the Iranian Revolution and never tried to absolve Iran from its role in the current situation in the region. I'm also curious to hear your tale about Iraq, especially the part involving the invasion in 2003.

You can try to gaslight all you want, but the there's a very simple fact, hawkish apologists such are yourself and a couple of others roaming this thread will eventually admit at some point. The US is the biggest and most nefarious foreign interference in the region. It's been directly and indirectly responsible for the death of hundreds of thousands of people and the destruction of two major countries. It has a direct hand in shaping the Middle-East and what we're currently witnessing.

Its policies based on war, legalized murder, supporting the dictator of the week, and now enabling genocide have been a cancer for the Middle-East since the end of WWII. The Cold War excuse and whatnot ain't gonna cut it.

Get the feck out of the Middle-East. Your country is neither welcome nor wanted there as of now and will never be, unless it decides to have a more balanced attitude.
 
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"The numbers of martyrs and wounded continue to rise, with this report indicating over 100 martyrs and more than 450 wounded. Among the martyrs and wounded are children, women, and medical personnel".
 


"The Israeli military spokesman issued a message in Arabic to Lebanese civilians in the South, saying, "Leave your houses where Hezbollah has hidden weapons." This is utter nonsense. Hezbollah does not hide weapons in civilian homes; they have their own facilities in the mountains and valleys. This message is a pretext to justify the murder of civilians. They intend to commit the same kind of atrocities as in Gaza.Let that be clear".

The scumbags are doing the same thing again.
 
This is surely just all out war now from Israel's end. How is also just about Hezbollah now? Won't Lebanese army also have to respond.
 
This is surely just all out war now from Israel's end. How is also just about Hezbollah now? Won't Lebanese army also have to respond.

Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army and as I've said on here before, despite Israel painting every conflict its ever in as an existential one where it's very existence is on question....Israel is the regional hegemon. It is backed almost without question by the global hegemon.

The IDF would destroy the Lebanese armed forces. Same with Syrian, Egyptian, Iraqi, Emirati, Jordanian, Saudi or Iranian.

The USA will help with any potential fallout and anything Israel can't deal with. Partly because it's a deeply unserious country when it comes to this issue. Partly because Biden is a lame duck. Partly because Biden genuinely believes in what is going on. And partly because Harris is terrified of upsetting the apple cart in such a tight election.

So sadly, as much as it's a beautiful country, I can't see beyond Israel flattening at least parts of Lebanon. I can't see beyond the Americans going along with it, while gaslighting us all that what they actually desperately want is to de escalate.

And the world will continue to watch on.
 
Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army and as I've said on here before, despite Israel painting every conflict its ever in as an existential one where it's very existence is on question....Israel is the regional hegemon. It is backed almost without question by the global hegemon.

The IDF would destroy the Lebanese armed forces. Same with Syrian, Egyptian, Iraqi, Emirati, Jordanian, Saudi or Iranian.

The USA will help with any potential fallout and anything Israel can't deal with. Partly because it's a deeply unserious country when it comes to this issue. Partly because Biden is a lame duck. Partly because Biden genuinely believes in what is going on. And partly because Harris is terrified of upsetting the apple cart in such a tight election.

So sadly, as much as it's a beautiful country, I can't see beyond Israel flattening at least parts of Lebanon. I can't see beyond the Americans going along with it, while gaslighting us all that what they actually desperately want is to de escalate.

And the world will continue to watch on.

Ok. Thank makes sense. Israel has pretty much called Hezbollah's bluff and lookd like Hezbollah knows that it can't respond in any meaningful manner.