Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

If Iran still don't have a nuke, the regime deserves everything coming to it now. This goes beyond incompetence, short-sightedness, whatever. Bush wanted to invade in the mid-00s. McCain was singing "bomb bomb Iran" in public in 2008. The deal was broken by Trump in 2017. Bibi has been threatening for literally decades.
They've had years and years to prepare, and have been busy getting assassinated and riddled with moles and viruses and bombs, and not building a nuke pointed at Tel Aviv. They can't play these politics and support Hamas/Hezbollah without having that deterrence.
 
How incompetent are the Iranian security services.
 
VorZakone said:
Too busy oppressing their own people.
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It does seem they have been deeply infiltrated by Mossad, but tbf they aren't the only ones in the region.
 
Kaos said:
So it was essentially a terrorist attack on foreign soil? Granted the target wasn't a savoury character, but they could have feasibly killed a few innocent bystanders too.

Now imagine a scenario if Iran had detonated a bomb in the US, killing someone like Ben Gvir or Gallant.
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Might makes right, haven't you heard?
 
2mufc0 said:
How incompetent are the Iranian security services.
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They've got moles, always had. This isn't the first time the Mossad has assassinated high profile targets on Iranian soil.

Still doesn't change the fact that it's a gigantic slap in the face for Iran.
 
Raoul said:
Eerie resemblance to Operation Wrath of God, where the Mossad planted a bomb inside Mahmoud Hamshari's phone following the Munich Olympics attack.

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"No women, no kids". Fast forward 50 years and it appears they're now both on the menu for the Israelis.
 
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/...to-tel-aviv-as-middle-east-tensions-escalate/

In response to heightened tensions in the Middle East following the killing of a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut, a wave of global airlines including Lufthansa Group, British Airways, and Delta Airlines from the US have suspended their flights to Tel Aviv.

Swiss International Air Lines (SWISS), part of the Lufthansa Group, has issued a statement noting the suspension of services in the Middle East, resulting in numerous cancellations. Flights to Tel Aviv by the group will be paused until August 9. The Lufthansa Group encompasses carriers such as Swiss Airlines, Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings.

Additionally, Air Baltic has put a temporary hold on its flights to Israel this Thursday and Friday, with plans to resume regular service thereafter.

Other major airlines like Air France, Turkish Airlines, Royal Jordanian Airlines, Ethiopian Air, and Aegean Airlines have also ceased flights to Israel due to the current geopolitical situation.

Delta Airlines paralleled these actions, confirming a suspension of its operations to Tel Aviv in a recent statement.

The disruption has led to around 70,000 passengers currently stranded at Tel Aviv airport, with many trying to secure the last available flights out of the country. Despite the widespread flight cancellations, the Israel Airports Authority (IAA) reassured that flights to and from Israel remain secure amidst the ongoing security concerns
 
Kaush949 said:
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/...to-tel-aviv-as-middle-east-tensions-escalate/

In response to heightened tensions in the Middle East following the killing of a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut, a wave of global airlines including Lufthansa Group, British Airways, and Delta Airlines from the US have suspended their flights to Tel Aviv.

Swiss International Air Lines (SWISS), part of the Lufthansa Group, has issued a statement noting the suspension of services in the Middle East, resulting in numerous cancellations. Flights to Tel Aviv by the group will be paused until August 9. The Lufthansa Group encompasses carriers such as Swiss Airlines, Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings.

Additionally, Air Baltic has put a temporary hold on its flights to Israel this Thursday and Friday, with plans to resume regular service thereafter.

Other major airlines like Air France, Turkish Airlines, Royal Jordanian Airlines, Ethiopian Air, and Aegean Airlines have also ceased flights to Israel due to the current geopolitical situation.

Delta Airlines paralleled these actions, confirming a suspension of its operations to Tel Aviv in a recent statement.

The disruption has led to around 70,000 passengers currently stranded at Tel Aviv airport, with many trying to secure the last available flights out of the country. Despite the widespread flight cancellations, the Israel Airports Authority (IAA) reassured that flights to and from Israel remain secure amidst the ongoing security concerns
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In many ways this highlights the asymmetrical cost this campaign has had to civilian life. Israelis can just jump on the next flight to go on their jollies or somewhere in Europe or NA until things blow over, yet Palestinians in Gaza are confined to being fish in a barrel, praying the bombs or snipers don't target their home/refugee camp. Likewise for those in Beirut - those not lucky enough to be dual-nationals are pretty much stuck in the country.
 
The Haniyeh assassination was clearly a goading of Iran. Israel could have assassinated him in Qatar. Hell, it probably would have been easier too.

What this is showing though is that Iran realistically is unable to defend itself and it's borders and unable to really strike at Israel in a significant way without it's proxies.

This deterrent is much less significant when one of them is already almost destroyed and the other already engaged in low level conflict.

They're able to exert influence on weaker countries in the region but unable to really directly impact on the actual superpower of the region.
 
africanspur said:
The Haniyeh assassination was clearly a goading of Iran. Israel could have assassinated him in Qatar. Hell, it probably would have been easier too.

What this is showing though is that Iran realistically is unable to defend itself and it's borders and unable to really strike at Israel in a significant way without it's proxies.

This deterrent is much less significant when one of them is already almost destroyed and the other already engaged in low level conflict.

They're able to exert influence on weaker countries in the region but unable to really directly impact on the actual superpower of the region.
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Qatar is an extremely important Western ally (even more so after the sanctions against Russia) so assassinating him in Qatar would have had diplomacy consequences.

On the other hand, there are no such issues from the Western world by assassinating him in Iran.
 
Revan said:
Qatar is an extremely important Western ally (even more so after the sanctions against Russia) so assassinating him in Qatar would have had diplomacy consequences.

On the other hand, there are no such issues from the Western world by assassinating him in Iran.
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In the last 5-10 years alone the Israelis have assassinated targets in countries like UAE, Malaysia and Tunisia. Before that timescale they've also killed in Europe.

They have no qualms about the host nation, since more often than not they know the blowback will be some hot air at best and it'll tide over.

I agree with AfricanSpur, think it was strategic of them to specifically kill him in Iran.
 
Kaos said:
In the last 5-10 years alone the Israelis have assassinated targets in countries like UAE, Malaysia and Tunisia. Before that timescale they've also killed in Europe.

They have no qualms about the host nation, since more often than not they know the blowback will be some hot air at best and it'll tide over.

I agree with AfricanSpur, think it was strategic of them to specifically kill him in Iran.
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This is the only country who is as important to the West as Qatar. I assume you are talking about the assassination of Al-Mabhouh in Dubai, which had some diplomacy fallout.

However, with sanctions of Russia, Qatar is even more important than UAE back then. Otherwise, they would have assassinated Haniyeh in Qatar a long time ago.

BTW, Israel is not the only country who does assassination in other countries and basically going unpunished for that. We saw recently Saudi Arabia doing the same in Turkey.
 
Revan said:
Qatar is an extremely important Western ally (even more so after the sanctions against Russia) so assassinating him in Qatar would have had diplomacy consequences.

On the other hand, there are no such issues from the Western world by assassinating him in Iran.
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Although the Israelis can strike pretty much wherever they want, the US and Qatar have a basing agreement at Al-Udied, which is a major logistical hub for US operations in the middle east and as of a few years ago, there were about 10k US troops there. That would complicate things for the Israelis since the Qataris are both negotiating partners/intermediaries for ceasefire negotiations, and Israeli actions inside Qatar would obviously not sit well with either the American and Qatari sides.
 
They could easily hit important infra, Israeli air defense is not fully up to western standards
 
MDFC Manager said:
I guess you're right but Big daddy will ensure they're well defended.
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Nothing even US/NATO could do to beef that up to be honest to its fullest potential.

Israel lacks strategic depth...which it can do nothing about. It cannot solve the problem of their country being really small and their main infrastructure and cities being very close together.

Second problem is that it doesn't have enough assets to point them in a 270 degree angle. An Arrow3 battery may have to operate North (Lebanon), East (Iran) and South (Houthi's) at the same time which really limits it.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Nothing even US/NATO could do to beef that up to be honest to its fullest potential.

Israel lacks strategic depth...which it can do nothing about. It cannot solve the problem of their country being really small and their main infrastructure and cities being very close together.

Second problem is that it doesn't have enough assets to point them in a 270 degree angle. An Arrow3 battery may have to operate North (Lebanon), East (Iran) and South (Houthi's) at the same time which really limits it.
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The Israelis also couldn't defend a simultaneous drone/rocket attack from Hezbollah, Iran, and Yemen. That would probably cause a lot of damage. The downside for Iran would be the US would probably get militarily involved at that point.
 
Raoul said:
The Israelis also couldn't defend a simultaneous drone/rocket attack from Hezbollah, Iran, and Yemen. That would probably cause a lot of damage. The downside for Iran would be the US would probably get militarily involved at that point.
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Yeah, the only way you can solve a strategic depth problem goes well beyond the military and is basically diplomacy.
 
Possibly Israel realises the best long term solution to the Gaza/Hamas problem and the Hezbollah problem is regime change in Tehran, since it is the Mullahs that are the root problem for them. Nobody in the middle east cares if their proxies are killed in large numbers. A direct war might not be such a bad idea from their point of view if America will pitch in decisively. A crippled Iran would benefit everyone and allow the Palestinians to remove Hamas from power, and thereby open up the eventual possibility of a dialogue with Israel.
 
glazed said:
Possibly Israel realises the best long term solution to the Gaza/Hamas problem and the Hezbollah problem is regime change in Tehran, since it is the Mullahs that are the root problem for them. Nobody in the middle east cares if their proxies are killed in large numbers. A direct war might not be such a bad idea from their point of view if America will pitch in decisively. A crippled Iran would benefit everyone and allow the Palestinians to remove Hamas from power, and thereby open up the eventual possibility of a dialogue with Israel.
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Not sure if a war would be needed for this since the Islamic Republic is likely to collapse from within given the amount of internal unrest and outside sanctions.
 
Raoul said:
Not sure if a war would be needed for this since the Islamic Republic is likely to collapse from within given the amount of internal unrest and outside sanctions.
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Because a dialogue with Israel existed before Hamas? Perhaps the more likely route to peace is the middle east is regime change in Israel and the band of psychopaths and Jewish fundamentalists taken out of the picture.
 
Superden said:
Because a dialogue with Israel existed before Hamas? Perhaps the more likely route to peace is the middle east is regime change in Israel and the band of psychopaths and Jewish fundamentalists taken out of the picture.
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Netanyahu, Iran, and Hamas not being part of future negotiations is key imo. Even if there was a new PM, they would be forced to go hard right until the threat of Hamas was removed.
 
Raoul said:
Netanyahu, Iran, and Hamas not being part of future negotiations is key imo. Even if there was a new PM, they would be forced to go hard right until the threat of Hamas was removed.
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That's admirable if the US would even hold Netanyahu or the hardliners even remotely culpable. They evidently don't, nor does there seem to be a threshold as far as the US is concerned.

Perhaps the issue is addressing the US' extremely contentious and counter-intuitive role in mediation? They wouldn't entertain the likes of Hamas and Iran in shaping the future of the region, but will happily roll out the red carpet for unhinged genocidal war criminals like Netanyahu.
 
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