Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

[Raven]

I find the posts of my evil twin @Raven very concerning, but that is not a surprise from a true leftie.

Now, I would give him the benefit of the doubt if he would actually be genuine and care about the human life. In his simplified world, Israel is the Goliath, Palestinians are the David, so you should always stick with David, no matter the circumstances. And you should hate Goliath, the all-powerful evil of Israel. He has 243 posts in Israel-Palestine thread, and 39 posts in this thread. A principled person.

From such a person, I would have expected to show a similar remorse for human life pretty much in all conflicts, especially in conflicts between the strong and the weak, especially in conflicts closer to home. And to my absolute shock (whom I am kidding, I obviously expected so), he has 0 posts in the Ukraine thread. Zero, null, nada, nilch.

Considering his absolute silence in this, him being ok with Iran and Hamas attacks, but not with Israel, and his absolute silence in Russia atrocities, I think we have found that Jeremy Corbyn posts in Caf. The only remaining question is why he is not yet advocating Russia's holy war against the evil capitalist West in Ukraine.

Is Jeremy Corbyn in the room with us right now?

 

[The Corinthian]

I find the posts of my evil twin @Raven very concerning, but that is not a surprise from a true leftie.

Now, I would give him the benefit of the doubt if he would actually be genuine and care about the human life. In his simplified world, Israel is the Goliath, Palestinians are the David, so you should always stick with David, no matter the circumstances. And you should hate Goliath, the all-powerful evil of Israel. He has 243 posts in Israel-Palestine thread, and 39 posts in this thread. A principled person.

From such a person, I would have expected to show a similar remorse for human life pretty much in all conflicts, especially in conflicts between the strong and the weak, especially in conflicts closer to home. And to my absolute shock (whom I am kidding, I obviously expected so), he has 0 posts in the Ukraine thread. Zero, null, nada, nilch.

Considering his absolute silence in this, him being ok with Iran and Hamas attacks, but not with Israel, and his absolute silence in Russia atrocities, I think we have found that Jeremy Corbyn posts in Caf. The only remaining question is why he is not yet advocating Russia's holy war against the evil capitalist West in Ukraine.

You're an intelligent poster - I enjoy reading some of what you write in other threads across the board. But this is complete horseshit, and you're better than that.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

It's best to not bother accusing people of these things: even if you think it. Creating that kind of emotional personal argument never is on the internet.

There was a bloke in the Ukraine thread who accused me of being a CIA paid shill because I participated at Euromaidan. There's just no point replying to accusations like that.

 

[Kaos]

I find it very interesting though how someone who seems to justify Hamas and Iran attacks in Israel, talk so much against Israel, doesn't have a single post for the Ukraine war. Which is much closer to home, and far more in the media.

You actually have 22 posts there, so clearly, there was of some interest to you. And unlike you, as far as I know, he doesn't have Middle East origin or family there. He also has extreme left wing ideas (a few days ago said that better to get another 'short term pain' with another 5 years or Tories than a centrist Labour government), and those people tend to a) attack Israel all the time, and defend whomever attacks Israel, which is borderline antisemitism, b) justify or don't give a feck about Russia atrocities in Ukraine. Double-check.

Well for starters he's from Ireland, a country where many feel a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian people because of parallels they feel with their own historic struggles. I don't want to speak for him but there's no reason that his lack of posts in another unrelated conflict diminishes the sincerity of his stance or concern for the human suffering endured by the Palestinians.

Like 2cents says, by all means debate his posts here, but the ad hominem attacks on his character are unnecessary.

 

[glazed]

Like 2cents says, by all means debate his posts here, but the ad hominem attacks on his character are unnecessary.

He supports 10/7. His character speaks for itself. Just another tanky footsoldier.

 

[RedTiger]

It wasn't an uprising. It was a mindless attempt at slaughter to relieve the grievances and anger they felt.

It's pretty simple. No matter how much you feel you are subjucated or booted-down, barbarism and slaughter is not the answer.

What is the answer? How should a subjugated people respond? 5 years ago the gazans tried unarmed protest by walking to the security fence and doing nothing other than just standing, 1000s of unarmed were killed and maimed by snipers just for walking to the fence.
If Israel won't accept unarmed protest then what exactly would they be OK with?

 

[Raven]

I find it very interesting though how someone who seems to justify Hamas and Iran attacks in Israel, talk so much against Israel, doesn't have a single post for the Ukraine war. Which is much closer to home, and far more in the media.

You actually have 22 posts there, so clearly, there was of some interest to you. And unlike you, as far as I know, he doesn't have Middle East origin or family there. He also has extreme left wing ideas (a few days ago said that better to get another 'short term pain' with another 5 years or Tories than a centrist Labour government), and those people tend to a) attack Israel all the time, and defend whomever attacks Israel, which is borderline antisemitism, b) justify or don't give a feck about Russia atrocities in Ukraine. Double-check.

I haven't justified any Iranian attacks.

 

[Raven]

He supports 10/7. His character speaks for itself. Just another tanky footsoldier.

I don't support the 10/7 attacks, as I said, I do not support the methods they used.

 

[glazed]

I don't support the 10/7 attacks, as I said, I do not support the methods they used.

10/7 was an uprising against an apartheid state.

Coulda fooled me.

 

[2cents]

There's threads on the Myanmar civil war, Sudan civil war, and those get few responses but that doesn't necessarily mean Cafites are heartless.

There's only around ten passing references to the Tigray conflict posted on the entire Cafe since 2020 (when it started), despite it seemingly being by far the deadliest conflict on earth in the time since then.

 

[Shez]

10/7 was a travesty, criminal and a horrid act.

You subjugate a society to the extent that a peaceful resolution goes off the table (which effectively has been netanyahus aim for two decades now - plus a large portion of Israeli societies) and you create room for the worst in society to gain power by posing as the only way out. You’ve seen this happen many times across the globe with the whole ‘one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter adage’. 10/7 is not understandable or justifiable but it is easy to see how Israel created a scenario where Hamas undertook barbaric action (action mind you the IDF has taken both before and after 10/7)

Anyone pointing to the Oslo or camp David accords and saying Arafat tanked them is being disingenuous at best and at worst deliberately throwing sand in peoples eyes.

Here’s Nelson Mandela’s grandson putting more eloquently than I ever could why they were a non starter: https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2020/7/18/how-israels-lobbyists-occupied-mandelas-legacy
What nation would deliberately sign over its foreign policy, economy, borders and freedom of movement to someone else ?

Anyone thinking Israel’s attacks have been justified needs a long hard look in the mirror because they are glossing over a lot of avoidable human suffering. I said it before and I say it again: the IDF and Israeli government are absolute scum and shit stains on humanity

And I refuse to believe you need to pick a side between Iran and Israel. Both governments are abominations and their military / security forces stand on the backs of subjugated people

 

[Raven]

Coulda fooled me.

If they had attacked military targets exclusively I would support it wholeheartedly. As things happened, I condemn the violence against civilians but can fully understand why it happened.

 

[Shez]

If they had attacked military targets exclusively I would support it wholeheartedly. As things happened, I condemn the violence against civilians but can fully understand why it happened.

Maybe they were operating on the principle that for every one IDF person you kill it’s acceptable to kill 25 civilians as collateral damage. Inhuman scum

 

[Shez]

Let's say you're right for the sake of argument. Is it also easy to see how Hamas created a scenario where Israel took barbaric action? Are Hamas absolute scum too? Or does your bot farm posturing not permit that possibility?

I’ve already called Hamas scum ? Nice of you to edit out everything else
Edit: Also in the same post I called Hamas the absolute worst of humanity. Want me to get you English lessons ?

 

[Raven]

Maybe they were operating on the principle that for every one IDF person you kill it’s acceptable to kill 25 civilians as collateral damage. Inhuman scum

That seems to be perfectly fine for IDF supporters at least.

I’ve already called Hamas scum ? Nice of you to edit out everything else
Edit: Also in the same post I called Hamas the absolute worst of humanity. Want me to get you English lessons ?

He's obsessed with bot farms and running interference for Israel, I keep telling myself not to reply but it's tricky.

 

[That_Bloke]

Let's say you're right for the sake of argument. Is it also easy to see how Hamas created a scenario where Israel took barbaric action? Are Hamas absolute scum too? Or does your bot farm posturing not permit that possibility?

Your empathy is an example to us all. Do you fully understand why Israel needed to flatten Gaza too?

Could you stop with the childish insults? You sound like a 12 years old.

As is yours.

 

[glazed]

He's obsessed with bot farms and running interference for Israel, I keep telling myself not to reply but it's tricky.

I'm no Israel fanboy - they've broken international law and are probably engaged in ethnic cleansing. Netanyahu should be in a jail cell.

You're the one who only sees the Tanky/Hamas version of reality. Frankly Hamas should be wiped out for what they've done and what they stand for. But this is not the way to go about it

 

[That_Bloke]

I find it very interesting though how someone who seems to justify Hamas and Iran attacks in Israel, talk so much against Israel, doesn't have a single post for the Ukraine war. Which is much closer to home, and far more in the media.

He never did. He said that he understands why it happened. Big difference. Also, putting events in context never hurts, on the contrary.

Iran retaliated to the bombing of its embassy in Damascus, one more episode in the decades long shadow war these two countries have been at, albeit a very, very serious one. Before that Iran went to the UN and tried to get a condemnation of Israel's bombing. France, the UK and the US refused to even let the matter be discussed at the UNSC. So Iran went ahead, gave a 72 hours warning to all concerned and launched their attack which amounted to little more than a PR exercise and a reminder of the tacit RoE between the two countries.

It doesn't matter anyway since you seem to take a dump on international laws when it doesn't suit your side of the argument. You cheer on the bombing of an embassy on the soil of a third country, which is by all means and intent a casus belli and a flagrant breach of the Vienna Convention, killing not only your supposed targets but also people who have nothing to do with it and find it completely normal. You gleefully support the bombing of Iran's nuclear installations (good luck with that, the most important are buried deep under the mountains) willfully ignoring the potentially catastrophic environmental consequences it could have. Then cry foul if the ones you don't like do the same.

This widespread cognitive dissonance is absurd and leads nowhere. It's either bad no matter who does it, or not and the world goes to shit, just like right now. Can't have your cake and eat it.

And before you try to nail me, I loathe the Iranian regime and Hamas, the same way I abhor the Israeli or Russian ones. I'm just not very good at mental gymnastics and prefer to keep it simple. For example, I am as much against the Russian invasion as the current massacre with genocidal intent of the Gazan population and the massive (and violent) land grab occuring in the West Bank about which no one talks. I also happen to consider the killing of Israeli civilians on 10/7 as an atrocity and a war crime and condemn it.

You actually have 22 posts there, so clearly, there was of some interest to you. And unlike you, as far as I know, he doesn't have Middle East origin or family there. He also has extreme left wing ideas (a few days ago said that better to get another 'short term pain' with another 5 years or Tories than a centrist Labour government), and those people tend to a) attack Israel all the time, and defend whomever attacks Israel, which is borderline antisemitism, b) justify or don't give a feck about Russia atrocities in Ukraine. Double-check.

Is it now a requirement to be in favor of a Palestinian state? Not everyone is as tribal as you are.

This has absolutely nothing to do with this thread.

Aside from the ridiculous blanket statement, that's an extremely reductive interpretation of his posts and a downright false accusation. You're scrapping the bottom of the barrel and resorting to ad hominem attacks to get your point across. Instead of counting how many posts he has on the Russia-Ukraine thread (no one gives a shit about that and it bears no relevance to the discussion) and trying to smear the man, just reply to what he's writing.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

I know tensions are running high in this thread. But the caf is one of the few places where you can discuss this topic, without it descending into a toxic cesspit like every other place on the internet.

 

[B20]

Japan population overwhelmingly supported the militarist regime in ww2. So they weren't exactly innocent so its only natural Hiroshima happened.

Am I doing this right?

Morally, of course not, in isolation. But there is an argument to be made that Japan were never going to surrender otherwise, and were prepping the population for a land invasion that would have cost a lot more lives in the end. The psy ops were all based on 'to the last man' rhetoric and that it would be better if Japan were wiped out than surrendered.

The atomic bombs did something that would otherwise have been impossible in breaking the Japanese zeal for war. Which in the end probably saved more lives than it took.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Morally, of course not, in isolation. But there is an argument to be made that Japan were never going to surrender otherwise, and were prepping the population for a land invasion that would have cost a lot more lives in the end. The psy ops were all based on 'to the last man' rhetoric and that it would be better if Japan were wiped out than surrendered.

The atomic bombs did something that would otherwise have been impossible in breaking the Japanese zeal for war. Which in the end probably saved more lives than it took.

I wrote an explanation to this. Operation Olympic would have cost 7 million lives according to DoD conservative estimates.

 

[Buster15]

Are you in Hamas? How on earth do you know what the specific intention was? If that was their intention, it's been an incredible success.

It is perfectly possible to deduce what was intended by looking at the events.

 

[The Corinthian]

These incidents are well known for decades. By the time they happened Jewish flight from Iraq was already underway, discriminatory laws had been gradually introduced since the mid-30s, and most notoriously the Farhud had happened in 1941.

I never realised they were this well known actually. It was always suspected in the same way other conspiracy theories were discussed but if you're saying it was well known at the time that's interesting.

The discriminatory laws in the mid-30s - what were the drivers for this?

 

[nickm]

So Iran went ahead, gave a 72 hours warning to all concerned and launched their attack which amounted to little more than a PR exercise and a reminder of the tacit RoE between the two countries.

Both sides crossed a threshold but Iran did something more - it signalled that it was prepared to escalate. If it was simply a PR exercise, it would have responded with a lesser show of force.

 

[Darkhorsez]

Both sides crossed a threshold but Iran did something more - it signalled that it was prepared to escalate. If it was simply a PR exercise, it would have responded with a lesser show of force.

If you think that’s all Iran has to offer - you would be wrong. A couple of things. First they have a lot more ballistics than was used and also better versions that those used. Second, why would they give 2 day notice of attack if they were planning this to be more than a PR. BTW - I despise the Iranian government.

 

[nickm]

If you think that’s all Iran has to offer - you would be wrong. A couple of things. First they have a lot more ballistics than was used and also better versions that those used. Second, why would they give 2 day notice of attack if they were planning this to be more than a PR. BTW - I despise the Iranian government.

Iran would not have known that Israel would be able to shoot down 99% of them or been sure that Israel's Arab neighbours would help. If they had "only" shot down 90% of them, that's 30 missiles hitting their targets and we would not be talking about a "PR exercise". You launch 300 missiles & drones because, on the face of it, you want some to get through. "72 hours of notice" is Iran trying to have it both ways.

 

[Revan]

If you think that’s all Iran has to offer - you would be wrong. A couple of things. First they have a lot more ballistics than was used and also better versions that those used. Second, why would they give 2 day notice of attack if they were planning this to be more than a PR. BTW - I despise the Iranian government.

They can obviously do more but it cannot do more than scratching Israel. And Israel can hit them far harder than they can hit Israel.

Of course, Iran has a higher threshold of pain compared to Israel, and even if they exchange killings with a rate of 5 to 1, Iran would still win. But I actually think that it won’t be like that at all, Iran can barely hit Israel, and Israel has the power to pretty much destroy their nuclear reactors and seriously damage their military basis. On the other hand, a coordinated attack between Iran, Hezbollah and the remaining of Hamas could be extremely bloody for Israel, which is why they haven’t hit Iran yet.

 

[Revan]

Iran could not know that Israel would be able to shoot down 99% of them or that Israel's Arab neighbours would rally to Israel's side. If they had "only" shot down 90% of them, that's 30 missiles hitting their targets and we would not be talking about a "PR exercise". You launch 300 missiles & drones because you want some to get through, 72 hours of notice or not.

This entire idea that Iran threw 400 projectiles (it is actually closer to 400 than 300) knowing that Israel would block them is pretty much absurd. It won’t serve any purpose to Iran, it was a public humiliation.

They threw rockets to hit Israel, plain and simple. I think they expected that some of them would actually do some damage to Israel. Their entire deterrence now looks quite weaker than 3 days ago.

 

[Darkhorsez]

Iran would not have known that Israel would be able to shoot down 99% of them or been sure that Israel's Arab neighbours would help. If they had "only" shot down 90% of them, that's 30 missiles hitting their targets and we would not be talking about a "PR exercise". You launch 300 missiles & drones because you want some to get through. "72 hours of notice" is Iran trying to have it both ways.

Seriously! Two thirds of the total were drones! Completely ineffective. Are you also kidding not believing that Iran knows exactly the defensive capabilities of Israel’s and their supporting cast‘s? This has and will be a zero sum game. I wish ill on both regimes really. This is all a game and I hope Israel will surely not retaliate.

 

[nickm]

This entire idea that Iran threw 400 projectiles (it is actually closer to 400 than 300) knowing that Israel would block them is pretty much absurd. It won’t serve any purpose to Iran, it was a public humiliation.

They threw rockets to hit Israel, plain and simple. I think they expected that some of them would actually do some damage to Israel. Their entire deterrence now looks quite weaker than 3 days ago.

I agree, not just militarily but politically they showed the underlying strength of Isarel's regional support.

 

[nickm]

Are you also kidding not believing that Iran knows exactly the defensive capabilities of Israel’s and their supporting cast‘s?

Nobody can really be sure about the strength of a complex multilayer air defence system like that with so many technical, operational and political moving parts, until it is tested. 99% is an amazing result. I bet even the Israelis were surprised. I am quite sure the Iranians were.

 

[Revan]

I agree, not just militarily but politically they showed the practical strength of Isarel's regional support.

Yep, it just could not have gone worse for them. Essentially they showed to be a paper tiger, and this act made lots of progress in Israel-Arab alliance. Now Jordan has been an ally of Israel for more than 30 years, but King Abdullah was by far the most outspoken Arab leaders against the War in Gaza, and Jordan both shot down Iran's drones and opened its air space for Israel, the US, France and the UK. Even more worringly for Iran, Saudi Arabia who does not recognise Israel shot down Iran drones. So both a military humiliation, and a political miss for Iran.

 

[Tarrou]

This entire idea that Iran threw 400 projectiles (it is actually closer to 400 than 300) knowing that Israel would block them is pretty much absurd. It won’t serve any purpose to Iran, it was a public humiliation.

They threw rockets to hit Israel, plain and simple. I think they expected that some of them would actually do some damage to Israel. Their entire deterrence now looks quite weaker than 3 days ago.

they have pretty tight control over local media though so they can sell it to their people as a victory right

I'm not saying it was designed to cause zero damage. But surely it isn't absurd to claim they didn't want much damage considering they announced it?

 

[Revan]

they have pretty tight control over local media though so they can sell it to their people as a victory right

I'm not saying it was designed to cause zero damage. But surely it isn't absurd to claim they didn't want much damage considering they announced it?

My best guess is that they wanted some damage to show that they can cause damage to Israel, but not too much damage so Israel/US does not counter-attack.

However, they showed that they cannot even scratch Israel while at the same time progressing the Israel-Arab alliance. Which is why the US is urging Israel to not hit back, cause it can already be considered to be both a political and military victory for Israel.

 

[nickm]

My best guess is that they wanted some damage to show that they can cause damage to Israel, but not too much damage so Israel/US does not counter-attack.

However, they showed that they cannot even scratch Israel while at the same time progressing the Israel-Arab alliance. Which is why the US is urging Israel to not hit back, cause it can already be considered to be both a political and military victory for Israel.

Yep.

Are people here seriously claiming that Iran's plan relied on their adversary shooting down all their missiles? What kind of a stupid and reckless plan is that?

 

[Revan]

Yep.

Are people here seriously claiming that Iran's plan relied on their adversary shooting down all their missiles? What kind of a stupid and reckless plan is that?

While at the same time saying that Iran doesn't want the war, but the wild cat Netanyahu is looking for a war.

Some Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy logic here.

 

[Spark]

While at the same time saying that Iran doesn't want the war, but the wild cat Netanyahu is looking for a war.

Some Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy logic here.

This is spoken like someone who understands absolutely nothing about internal Iranian politics or wider Middle Eastern politics. The last thing Iran wants is a regional war that will have the whole world against it, when it's facing a crumbling economy and the lowest support from its own population since the revolution. This isn't the 80's where the country united around the mullahs to defend itself from Iraq, a war with Israel will severely endanger the regime.

Israel does want a conflict because it distracts from Gaza, as currently being demonstrated and where the country was more isolated internationally than ever in its existence, and prolongs the current government. Also they do have a supportive population willing to put aside their quite rational opposition to Netanyahu (see all the protests over the last two years, the unprecedented reserve fighter pilots strike, etc) in the face of adversity from Iran.

The Iranians had to respond to Damascus, which was a clear escalation. They chose to respond in a way that would make any further response from Israel a clear escalation in hostilities, unless you think they were caught by surprise at the fact Israel has an Iron Dome and the US, UK and France are their allies. It's a firework show, they know that 300 very sub-sonic drones flown over a thousand miles at relatively low altitude is likely to do the best part of feck all.

If Israel chooses to respond further and escalate the situation that will be purely because they want war. The dangerous part is that the current Israeli government are right-wing religious nutjobs, with Netanyahu facing serious charges of corruption. The combo makes them even more unpredictable. However, I imagine they'll come to their senses are remember that maintaining the current regime in Iran has always been in their best interests as it has allowed them to massively expand their economy since 1979 (same as Saudi and the Gulf States). The last thing they want is a revolution in Iran that sees a pro-Western government come to power as they'll have a huge competitor for American aid, not to mention the Iranian oil that will flood the market.

 

[Buster15]

Nobody can really be sure about the strength of a complex multilayer air defence system like that with so many technical, operational and political moving parts, until it is tested. 99% is an amazing result. I bet even the Israelis were surprised. I am quite sure the Iranians were.

Yes indeed it was an amazing result given the time for the systems plural to be capable of reacting, detecting, tracking and shooting down.
Especially as it was not just one missile/drone type.

If Israel has any sense it will be busy trying to sell the Iron Dome system abroad.

 

[Buster15]

Seriously! Two thirds of the total were drones! Completely ineffective. Are you also kidding not believing that Iran knows exactly the defensive capabilities of Israel’s and their supporting cast‘s? This has and will be a zero sum game. I wish ill on both regimes really. This is all a game and I hope Israel will surely not retaliate.

I take it you are a Defence Analyst to be able to say this with any conviction.

 

[nickm]

The Iranians had to respond to Damascus, which was a clear escalation. They chose to respond in a way that would make any further response from Israel a clear escalation in hostilities, unless you think they were caught by surprise at the fact Israel has an Iron Dome and the US, UK and France are their allies. It's a firework show, they know that 300 very sub-sonic drones flown over a thousand miles at relatively low altitude is likely to do the best part of feck all.

Iran's response was also escalatory. It was not purely retaliatory.

120 of those "300 subsonic drones" were ballistic missiles.

If Israel chooses to respond further and escalate the situation that will be purely because they want war.

Israel can respond in ways that are non-escalatory - they had an ex head of Mossad on the TV the other day implying what some of those look like. We will have to see if that is what it does.