A pretty transparent and honest statement, appreciate it. Can't shake the feeling of some form of tribalism in this, though
Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
I like the honesty too, same with Raoul. It is above all practical.
Last edited:
There is without a doubt an element of tribalism. I would really struggle to believe anyone denying that aspect.
I don't really care who started it, I mean the whole thing has been going on for decades
my concern is what if anything will Israel do from here? And how far can this realistically escalate?
Israel have come out and said they will retaliate which is frankly terrifying to me at this point
could it possibly be as tame as sanctions or something like that?
my concern is what if anything will Israel do from here? And how far can this realistically escalate?
Israel have come out and said they will retaliate which is frankly terrifying to me at this point
could it possibly be as tame as sanctions or something like that?
As usual you are looking at this with a very one sided view.
Iran did nothing to cause this?
I would always have expected Israel to retaliate in some way, let's hope it is not seen by Iran as an escalation. That is the worry with all the theatre lovers on here, it assumes your enemy is playing the same game as you. One lit match dropped in the wrong place and your theatre burns down.
Israel is like peak Bush era America right now. Bloodthirsty, fanatical and war hungry. It's going to end in disaster as it so often does. If Gaza is their Afghanistan then Iran might be their Iraq and the world will suffer the consequences for the next couple decades, if we're lucky enough to even get there.
Even Ehud Barak said so. The guy who offered the best deal to Palestinians that they are ever going to get.
I am not sure about that. But they have definitely done lots of war crimes in Gaza.
Nah, they cannot invade Iran for it to be their Iraq. At most they will bomb a few important military/nuclear targets there.
Yep, the theatre thing is beyond absurd. You throw a couple of missiles for theatric purposes, not 400 projectiles (drones, cruise and ballistic missiles) for that. There was no way to know how many will be shot down, and how many will hit, and how much damage they will cause.
I don't think they'll invade but things could escalate to a point where it gets much much worse.
Let's set aside that Gaza was sealed off only after the locals chose a genocidal terrorist death cult for a government. Let's set aside the Israelis withdrew from Gaza and begged Egypt to take it off their hands. Let's set aside that the Egyptians have also sealed off their Gaza border for similar reasons. Let's set aside any facts that don't suit your narrative and ask instead why you have that narrative. The answer is because the Palestinians have become a symbol of a wider conflict between the West and the global south, led by the CRINKs. For whatever reason you choose to side with the south. You probably don't give a hoot about the ethnic cleansing in Syria carried out by other muslims or Russians, or the million plus Uyghur muslims held in actual concentration camps in China, or the many other warzones that don't involve the West and Israel as the baddies.
But this war is getting closer to home all the time. The luxury of bickering among ourselves and ignoring the shift in global power towards some deeply unpleasant dictatorships that make Israel look like fairyland is not one we can afford for very much longer.
I'm looking at it with the correct view. Iran's pretty much the same exact thing that the US is doing.
States and alliances by definition are tribalist in nature.
I do not think this is fair on Kaos, who is (or at least his family is) from that region.
Saying that, I wouldn’t say that this is a proxy conflict between the West and East (unlike Ukraine for example). Of course, there are aspects of that, and undoubtedly there is a global context (just see the UN speeches of Russia and China), but the Palestinian issue at core is not West vs CRINK. On the other hand, it takes far more attention than most other conflicts (for example compared to Ethiopian civil war, or Yemen one which I don’t think have even 10 pages in Caf despite having 10x victims).
Last edited:
If Kaos wants to declare an allegiance that's his business. My allegiance is to the survival of western democracy, however imperfect. We are entering a century of conflict and mass migration and people will have to pick sides. If not for Iran and Russia, the middle east would look very different right now, so to dismiss the CRINKs as irrelevant cannot be right. Without them there would have been no October 7. And without America there would be no Israel.
Last edited:
Sure, I do not think we differ much on that. I just think that Israel-Palestine conflict is far more complex and nuanced than West vs CRINK. Israel vs Iran on the other hand, for sure, it is clear from Security Council statements where do the countries stand on it.
I think that Israel at this stage is perfectly capable of surviving on his own. I mean they have nukes, at worst case scenario, they can nuke their enemies (who do not have nukes). But of course, without the US and the West support, they would struggle in many other aspects (economically for example).
Of course you are.
The right view through a myopic lens.
At least try and take a balanced view for once.
Of course it is, but there is a vast and complex history that is being ignored or rewritten. The people who march through London every Saturday are not in the main Palestinians. They are, from what I can tell, (and I say this respectfully) mainly muslims, people from the political left and others who have a global south allegiance. They don't know or care about why the Oslo accords failed, or why the 1929 Hebron massacre happened or land purchases during the British mandate or what happened in 1948 or 1967 or 2005. None of that stuff matters. To them this is a battlefield in a global conflict to do with white colonialism and islamic identity. That's their right to hold such views, but let's not pretend it's only about what happens in a small strip of land where Jesus used to live. It is a global issue that the CRINKs, and Iran in particular, are weaponising.
I agree that a large part of those people see it pretty much as you described, which is why I did not go to such protests, despite that I think Israel has gone way too far in Gaza.
We also saw in Toronto people celebrating Iran's attack in Israel, so definitely a lot of people there are not protesting for peace.
Morally that's certainly true, from a European standpoint. But we might be guilty of occidentalism in applying our values to two groups who do not share them.
Strategically we will have to wait and see if they are successful in ousting Hamas from the region. The Israelis did much the same to the PLO in Lebanon in the 1980s, and that proved to be successful despite the high cost in lives on both sides (anyone remember the Sabra and Shatila refugee camp massacres?) But this time feels different. The CRINKs seem determined to pressure and overstretch the west in Ukraine, Israel and ultimately in Taiwan, while doing everything they can to disrupt our democracy at home with a torrent of fake news and the funding of bad political actors - Farage, Trump, Johnson, Galloway etc. This feels planned.
Successful in removing the PLO from Lebanon. But the consequences of the 1982 war have been disastrous for Israel, as Hezbollah are a far more formidable enemy than the PLO ever were.
More formidable but also less likely to attack. The wider question is how do you end this war for good. That is seldom addressed.
@glazed, out of curiosity why you are saying Global South? Russia is as North as it gets, while Iran, China and North Korea are all north of equator.
Wouldn't a better term be the East, with China being the leader of CRINK and being in the East, North Korea being dependent on China, and Russia and Iran being in the east side (from a European-US perspective). Still, the issue with that is that some big US/Europe allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia etc are also in the East.
Nevertheless, I agree with your main points. We are in a new cold war despite not fully realizing it, and I aspect the amount of these proxy conflicts will increase. The West support (or lack of) for Ukraine and Israel will also define the future of Taiwan.
Wouldn't a better term be the East, with China being the leader of CRINK and being in the East, North Korea being dependent on China, and Russia and Iran being in the east side (from a European-US perspective). Still, the issue with that is that some big US/Europe allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia etc are also in the East.
Nevertheless, I agree with your main points. We are in a new cold war despite not fully realizing it, and I aspect the amount of these proxy conflicts will increase. The West support (or lack of) for Ukraine and Israel will also define the future of Taiwan.
It is a genocide.
If you want to lessen the appeal of the CRINK countries (cringe term), don't kill 30,000 Palestinians while doing everything to avoid a two state solution and calling everyone and their dog Hamas if they disagree.
Well because they actually have a stake in Lebanon as a state, they are certainly more cautious and concerned not to provoke a war that might alter the balance of power in that country against them. On the other hand, they are going absolutely nowhere, they run south Lebanon and are completely embedded in the area with massive support. So there’ll be no evacuation with Nasrallah waving victory-signs on his way into exile.
I'm not defending what Israel did but it is interesting that the legality or otherwise is not 100% clear cut according to an article in the NY Times that quotes several experts in international law.
Let me start again.
I can tell by your posts on the other thread that you are a highly committed individual and someone with principles.
And despite our differences, I respect you for that. Genuinely I do.
This whole Arab Israel Palestine situation is an awful mess. And a mess in which innocent people are paying the price.
But it is also incredibly complex. Historically, politically entrenched in a spiral of chaos.
The leaders don't give a sh1t about morals or the people they are supposed to be leading. That is clear.
Just their own vested interests.
I am sure we both want it to stop. But it won't for the above reasons.
When is it ever (when it comes to states the West actively supports)?
Was the Hamas attack described as a "genocide"? It has every right to be described that way, in my own opinion, but how does that float in "international law"? International Law is both a saving grace and a grace which requires saving by the intervention of common sense every now and then (against the embedded legalese terms and habits/codes of conduct which are all about precedent and thresholds and measuring strings).
I say Hamas was actively involved in a "small" genocide and that Israel is actively involved in a much larger genocide. It is the same genocide, of course, but being asymmetrical, you go directly to that quality. Then you might bring international law back in for clearer understandings.
Is it allowable to bomb consulates? That's the level international law, via the NYT, is pitching this thing at. No. That's the common sense answer. I'll have some IL after people agree on the premise that we shouldn't be fetishizing natural language terms to obscure things which are entirely opposite of what is basic common sense (that children can tell you is wrong and only the naive would call naive in response).
The same Nasrallah who was a no show while Gaza got levelled. I think Israel is fine with that. Of course sooner or later there will be a war with Hezbollah and that will be very challenging for Israel. They are a formidable foe.
I very much doubt it.
Formidable to be invaded, but not to be bombed. And that seems to be Israel's new strategy.
The former soviet union was adept at mobilising what we used to call the third world against the West. This is that in a modern setting. This is why you see Corbynite tankies on every march. The global south isn't a strictly geographical concept and where it is, it just means south of Europe and the USA. But the impact of climate change is making latitude increasingly important. Iran might well collapse in the next decades because of drought.
That is a mantra for CRINK foot soldiers to parrot on social media, ignoring the inconvenient fact that the removal, killing or enslavement of Jews from Israel is Hamas' stated policy. If Israel's policy is genocide then it isn't very good at it. It's more a clumsy and so far failed attempt at ethnic cleansing. The day may well come when Israel attempts a genocide against the Palestinians and when it does you will regret having rendered the term meaningless.
You think the CRINKs care about the Palestinians? They really don't or they'd be helping them now instead of stoking up anger while letting it all happen.
China, Russia, Iran, North Korea
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea that are in a real alliance, both politically/economically but even more importantly military (see Iran, China and N. Korea sending weapons to Russia). Which is quite dangerous to the West, considering their non-democratic governments and the hate for the west.
BRICS is not a real alliance to be fair. India and China have many problems with each other, South Africa is not powerful either military of economically, and Brazil is more connected to the West rather than the remaining RICS.
China selling and profiteering from Russia does not mean they are in an alliance.
They are in an "enemy of my enemy" situation but Sinophobia and Russophobia runs deep in both those countries.
They are in an "enemy of my enemy" situation but Sinophobia and Russophobia runs deep in both those countries.
You're way wrong. Interesting article about CRINKs in today's torygraph...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/15/world-war-west-allies-iran-russia-china-north-korea/
Last edited by a moderator: