Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

ScholesyTheWise said:
what does that mean?
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Hezbollah’s missiles are not high quality. They are not Hamas’ level of junk quality but they are not high quality.

Obviously they have an insane number of them which will completely overwhelm Israel’s air defense, and if they coordinate with Iran attacking at the same time, Iran’s mid-tier missiles can do a massive amount of damage to Israel and hit critical systems. It would be definitely worse for Israel than what happened in October.

But then, Israel would counter attack and hit Iran and Hezbollah far more harder.
Bomb the shit out of Iran’s critical military bases, nuclear reactors and also some civilian infrastructure (they did that in Gaza will obviously do that in Iran). And most likely occupy southern Lebanon. So while Israel will win such a war, it will be massively costly.

This is not accounting the US entering the theatre and they obviously will. Which means that Iran doesn’t get just bombed from Israel (key military assets) but finds out why the US doesn’t have free healthcare and gets bombed to stone age.
 
I don't think I agree with his conclusions, but thought it was interesting to share. He's a decent Economist journalist.

 
Pav1878 said:
you didn’t start it? I beg to differ.
Please correct me if any of the below statements are not true and did not happen before October 7th:

- Zionists took Palestinian land in 1948 and displaced 750,000 people, murdering thousands.

- occupied and created an apartheid state where a wall separates Palestinians and deprives them of the same freedoms as Israelis.

- invited settlers from abroad to systematically steal land, property and kill Palestinians, which continues as we speak.

Now, who started it?
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* Israel accepted the UN partition plan, palestinians started a war with all the arab countries who surrounded us. War has consquences, they could have gained control of 55% of the land back in 48 had they not initiated a war.

* Palestinians in the west bank live under the rule of the palestinian Authority, they are not israeli civilians. Arabs within the israeli borders have equel rights as any citizan should.

* I have my criticism on the settlements in the west bank. Non of which i will use as an excuse to justify the murder and kiddnapping of children, women and innocent people with a bullet to the head at the really best case. If you do, thats on you mate.
 
Pav1878 said:
Palestinians took the Jews in after the Holocaust when they were being turned away by other countries. The Zionists then took their land by force, expelling 750,000 Palestinians in what is known as the first Nakba.
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The settlements started long before the Holocaust. The Palestinians were happy to sell land to Jewish immigrants until they suddenly felt there are too many Jews and the conflict started.


Pav1878 said:
if that had happened to you, and your land had been seized, your family murdered in front of you, you would resist too.
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It didn't happened to me (as I haven't been born) but to my family. The family of my mother is from Pomerania and the Russian took everything from them, land and houses. My grandmother and 2 of her sisters got raped by the Russian, one even killed. If they didn't flee and leaving all behind, the probably would have died all.
 
Revan said:
Hezbollah’s missiles are not high quality. They are not Hamas’ level of junk quality but they are not high quality.

Obviously they have an insane number of them which will completely overwhelm Israel’s air defense, and if they coordinate with Iran attacking at the same time, Iran’s mid-tier missiles can do a massive amount of damage to Israel and hit critical systems. It would be definitely worse for Israel than what happened in October.

But then, Israel would counter attack and hit Iran and Hezbollah far more harder.
Bomb the shit out of Iran’s critical military bases, nuclear reactors and also some civilian infrastructure (they did that in Gaza will obviously do that in Iran). And most likely occupy southern Lebanon. So while Israel will win such a war, it will be massively costly.

This is not accounting the US entering the theatre and they obviously will. Which means that Iran doesn’t get just bombed from Israel (key military assets) but finds out why the US doesn’t have free healthcare and gets bombed to stone age.
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Ah yes. Beirut will definitely look like Gaza should a war start. how strong the bombardments be in Iran I can only guess.
but those mid-quality missiles of Hezbollah could be the end of me and many others, so there's that.

the Iranian leadership always looked very smart and astute to me.
I wonder whether they indeed miscalculated or, maybe there are more angles to it that will pan out later on.
 
T00lsh3d said:
They’re a bit like a Bruno Fernandes pass - very occasionally they’re on the money, most of the time you’ve no idea where the target was and they’ve ended up in a field 2 miles away
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Maybe Nasserallah also celebrates a missile hitting a building with two hands on his ears looking like an idiot....
 
T00lsh3d said:
Iran have played this hand really badly. 100+ ballistic missiles really is a bit of a coming out party…..only nobody turned up (or was killed, in this specific scenario).

I think they’ve managed to extend Isreal that open invite to feck them up whilst not actually landing a blow themselves. A pretty big miscalculation
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It will all end now, this charade was just to save face for Iran. Very similar to the US base incident in Syria, which Trump admitted they were briefed beforehand.
 
ScholesyTheWise said:
Maybe Nasserallah also celebrates a missile hitting a building with two hands on his ears looking like an idiot....
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It’s probably too much of a surprise when it happens to incite a planned celebration
2mufc0 said:
It will all end now, this charade was just to save face for Iran. Very similar to the US base incident in Syria, which Trump admitted they were briefed beforehand.
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Hope so….I just have a feeling Isreal have an excuse now to throw a few more punches
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Yes,

Israel has conducted itself terribly in this whole conflict, but Iran has over the decades been the worst actor in the region.

The problem that Iran has with Israel is purely, purely, ideological. It isn't geopolitical in terms of rational interests, nor economic ones, it's purely, "This is muslim land, Jew's don't belong here." Israel and Iran shared a good relationship up until the revolution where all diplomatic relations were broken.

Since then, Iran has funded group after group of militia proxies around Israel to try and cut them whenever possible. Iran's problem with Israel is entirely outside the scope of the Gaza crisis.

What people are arguing is that Israel should just let IRGC commanders funnel weapons to be used on Israel by the Houthi's, Hezbollah, and Iraqi groups.

The consulate strike was wrong, but this is just as wrong if not worse.
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This sentence could also be used to describe Israel.

What claim does Israel have on that land other than a biblical one?

Even then they talk about the land of Canaan but that was actually a l
MacabbiUnited said:
* Israel accepted the UN partition plan, palestinians started a war with all the arab countries who surrounded us. War has consquences, they could have gained control of 55% of the land back in 48 had they not initiated a war.

* Palestinians in the west bank live under the rule of the palestinian Authority, they are not israeli civilians. Arabs within the israeli borders have equel rights as any citizan should.

* I have my criticism on the settlements in the west bank. Non of which i will use as an excuse to justify the murder and kiddnapping of children, women and innocent people with a bullet to the head at the really best case. If you do, thats on you mate.
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and yet it all goes back to 1948 and the seizure of Palestinian lands…. Why would the Palestinians accept 55% when they had 100%? would any other nation accept that?

Palestinians in the West Bank live under the PA but yet they are all occupied by Israel so…

the actions of settlers does not excuse the kidnap of civilians, I agree, and what excuses the thousands of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are children? What excuses the slaughter of over 33,000 Palestinians many of whom are children?
 
B. Munich said:
The settlements started long before the Holocaust. The Palestinians were happy to sell land to Jewish immigrants until they suddenly felt there are too many Jews and the conflict started.



It didn't happened to me (as I haven't been born) but to my family. The family of my mother is from Pomerania and the Russian took everything from them, land and houses. My grandmother and 2 of her sisters got raped by the Russian, one even killed. If they didn't flee and leaving all behind, the probably would have died all.
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so based on your family’s history you should understand how the Palestinians feel.

Zionism started long before the holocaust. The Zionists themselves stated that the holocaust was the catalyst that brought about the state of Israel and they almost welcomed it, as they then had global sympathy and groundswell of opinion in their favour.

Anti Zionism sentiment is simply an opposition to displacement, murder and genocide, for these are the central ideas on which Zionism is based, as outlined but the founder of the movement Theodor Herzl.

If you support Zionism and the state of Israel then you also support the above.
 
Dirty Schwein said:
How powerful are Iran? Do they stand a chance with their military and proxies against Israel and USA if it got to that?
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It depends, what is a victory? On an equal footing nobody stands a chance against the US. Could the US invade and overthrow the Iranian regime? Iran's terrain would make it very, very difficult. Their conventional military wouldn't last long but when they don their civilian clothes and start hiding behind kids and caves? Different story.
 
11101 said:
Ballistic missiles don't look like that.
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what do you reckon these things are?

the two sides here have an interest in saying that these things were ballistic missiles...
bolstering the fearlessness of Iran and the defensive capa
11101 said:
It depends, what is a victory? On an equal footing nobody stands a chance against the US. Could the US invade and overthrow the Iranian regime? Iran's terrain would make it very, very difficult. Their conventional military wouldn't last long but when they don their civilian clothes and start hiding behind kids and caves? Different story.
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Why would the US invade Iran?
do they want another Iraq debacle?

or is it purely hypothetical?
 
Pav1878 said:
This sentence could also be used to describe Israel.

What claim does Israel have on that land other than a biblical one?

Even then they talk about the land of Canaan but that was actually a l


and yet it all goes back to 1948 and the seizure of Palestinian lands…. Why would the Palestinians accept 55% when they had 100%? would any other nation accept that?

Palestinians in the West Bank live under the PA but yet they are all occupied by Israel so…

the actions of settlers does not excuse the kidnap of civilians, I agree, and what excuses the thousands of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are children? What excuses the slaughter of over 33,000 Palestinians many of whom are children?
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So you object to Israel's very existence, that's another conversation all together.
Just for the sake of precision, there was no Palestinian state before 1948, there was a British mandate, and before that there was a Othman rule. You can perhaps claim that every inch of land within those borders belonged to the Arabs who populated it, but that was not the territories legal status.

Wars have happened all across the globe and populations moved as a result of it, most moved on to create a better lives for themselves, while Palestinian leaders have chosen to persue terror instead and doomed their population to life long suffering because of that.

BTW, the West Bank was under Jordanian rule from 1948-1967, why was no Palestinian state established than?
BTW 2, Gaza has a border with Egypt, a border which Israel currently holds no control on, and yet the Egyptians keep it sealed shut, why do you not complain about the siege the Egyptians are enforcing on the Gazans?
 
Beachryan said:
I have no idea how representative the Redcafe is of global opinion, but it's pretty fascinating at least on here seeing how heavily Israel has lost the PR war over the last 7 months. I think much like Putin, Netanyahu has insulated himself from the reality of what the world thinks, and this is terrifyingly dangerous, especially as he's surrounded by idiotic right-wing hawks.

The pass people give Iran on here because of Israel's actions is amazing in my eyes. So they arm militias all over the region, just to f*ck things up and keep it unstable. So they enable the Houthi's to close a shipping a major shipping route, impacting the entire global trade network. So they fire literally hundreds of attacks on major cities. So they're a murderous regime that has made it impossible for one half of their population to have rights.

Yeah but guys, Iran's the good guys now, cause Gaza?

F*ck sake people.
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Iran/Russia/Israel are all evil. To be specific their regimes are evil not their people. I think the reason most people seem to not have a major problem with what Iran has done (in general) is because they've just witnessed Netanyahu pummel a city for the last 6 months, bombing hospitals, creating a famine and killing aid workers with the world not doing a single thing of note to try and stop them.

If the whole Gaza/Israel thing never happened and you take that out of the equation pretty much the whole world will be asking for Iran to pay for what happened last night.
 
Beachryan said:
I have no idea how representative the Redcafe is of global opinion, but it's pretty fascinating at least on here seeing how heavily Israel has lost the PR war over the last 7 months. I think much like Putin, Netanyahu has insulated himself from the reality of what the world thinks, and this is terrifyingly dangerous, especially as he's surrounded by idiotic right-wing hawks.

The pass people give Iran on here because of Israel's actions is amazing in my eyes. So they arm militias all over the region, just to f*ck things up and keep it unstable. So they enable the Houthi's to close a shipping a major shipping route, impacting the entire global trade network. So they fire literally hundreds of attacks on major cities. So they're a murderous regime that has made it impossible for one half of their population to have rights.

Yeah but guys, Iran's the good guys now, cause Gaza?

F*ck sake people.
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Two things can be right at the same time, and two sides can be wrong at the same time.

I believe that the Iranian Revolution has become one of the most consequential events of Post-WW II. The world, particularly the Middle East, won't know peace as long as the Iranian regime exists. It's a terrible regime, just like those of Putin and KJU. I also believe that their nuclear program should be dealt with. I hope to live to see the day when this regime is gone!

At the same time, when you attack a consulate of a sovereign country, expect retaliation, even if this country is Iran/Russia/Belarus/NK/Another terrible place. Israel should not have attacked that consulate, and they should have expected Iran to respond (and probably did). When the U.S. killed Soleimani, Iran fired missiles.

As I said before, it's time for the U.S. to restrain Israel. They cannot attack everyone, everywhere and at any moment of their choice. This has to stop. At the same time, the U.S. should be putting forward a clear plan on how to deal with Iran moving forward, particularly when it comes to its nuclear program.

EDIT: Israel was one of the biggest supporters of brining down the Iraqi regime in 2003, and those here in the U.S. who supported it cited Iraq's threat to Israel's security. That was another reason/excuse for Bush to invade it. Then, two crucial things happened. 1) The fall of the (terrible) regime of Saddam led to the rise of terror groups. 2) Before 2003, Iraq was seen as a balancing power against Iran and that created some equilibrium in that part of the world. The collapse of the Saddam's regime completely changed that situation. And once Saddam was gone, circa 2006, Israel started its campaign against Iran.

We do NOT want more wars!
 
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Dirty Schwein said:
How powerful are Iran? Do they stand a chance with their military and proxies against Israel and USA if it got to that?
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Iran could be obliterated in 1 month by the US ala Iraq. They wont stand a chance in an all out war.

But before it comes to that Russia etc would have joined in. The world would burn from the aftermath from the instability economically.

For what it's worth nobody stand a chance against the US 1 v 1 or even half the world unite wont stand a chance against the US.

But on the flip side a war of this scale would have unexplained catastrophe on US economic and the world.

It's more than just who has the bigger stick
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Two things can be right at the same time, and two sides can be wrong at the same time.

I believe that the Iranian Revolution has become one of the most consequential events of Post-WW II. The world, particularly the Middle East, won't know peace as long as the Iranian regime exists. It's a terrible regime, just like those of Putin and KJU. I also believe that their nuclear program should be dealt with. I hope to live to see the day when this regime is gone!

At the same time, when you attack a consulate of a sovereign country, expect retaliation, even if this country is Iran/Russia/Belarus/NK/Another terrible place. Israel should not have attacked that consulate, and they should have expected Iran to respond (and probably did). When the U.S. killed Soleimani, Iran fired missiles.

As I said before, it's time for the U.S. to restrain Israel. They cannot attack everyone, everywhere and at any moment of their choice. This has to stop. At the same time, the U.S. should be putting forward a clear plan on how to deal with Iran moving forward, particularly when it comes to its nuclear program.
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It was not just a consulate, it was an IRGC headquarters. The same organization who has been arming Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi’s who attack Israel on daily basis.

It was well within Israel rights (and duty) to attack that consulate. Iran counterattacked and they did literally feck all.
 
Revan said:
It was not just a consulate, it was an IRGC headquarters. The same organization who has been arming Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi’s who attack Israel on daily basis.

It was well within Israel rights (and duty) to attack that consulate. Iran counterattacked and they did literally feck all.
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It was a consulate, and an act of terror on foreign sovereign territory where two civilians were also killed in addition to the officials inside. You can dress it up all you want but it remained a wildly irresponsible and provocative attack.

I assume you fall into the category of apologists who also deem it Israel's 'duty' to massacre 34000 civilians and engineer a famine in the name of self defense.
 
Kaos said:
It was a consulate, and an act of terror on foreign sovereign territory where two civilians were also killed in addition to the officials inside. You can dress it up all you want but it remained a wildly irresponsible and provocative attack.

I assume you fall into the category of apologists who also deem it Israel's 'duty' to massacre 34000 civilians and engineer a famine in the name of self defense.
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This type of post also makes any attack on Israel and its allies much more justifiable based on that line of thinking.
 
Kaos said:
It was a consulate, and an act of terror on foreign sovereign territory where two civilians were also killed in addition to the officials inside. You can dress it up all you want but it remained a wildly irresponsible and provocative attack.

I assume you fall into the category of apologists who also deem it Israel's 'duty' to massacre 34000 civilians and engineer a famine in the name of self defense.
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IRGC has been attacking Israel for decades via their proxies. Of course Israel is going to attack them, what on Earth do you expect.

The remaining part of your post is so stupid, I do not find a reason to reply.
 
MacabbiUnited said:
* Israel accepted the UN partition plan, palestinians started a war with all the arab countries who surrounded us. War has consquences, they could have gained control of 55% of the land back in 48 had they not initiated a war.
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Oh look, an Israeli's finally found a UN resolution he likes.
 
africanspur said:
Oh was Sinwar in the consulate?



Undoubtedly and sadly you have missed the massive irony within this post.
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I’m able to criticise netenyahu and think he must go. But at the same time I can appreciate the wider implications and involvement of Iran‘a regime in Hezbollah and Hamas. In fact, in hindsight, Israel’s response of taking out the IRGC people who enable and support Hamas and Hezbollah is the right step vs the approach that has happened in Gaza.

but having said all that, those who seem to support Iran’s regime and actions are not people I’ll engage with. Both the current Israeli and Iranian governments can be criticised without having to cheer on one of them.
 
africanspur said:
Oh was Sinwar in the consulate?
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This was a statement of the rather august sounding Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces as recounted on Shana.com:

Guards Major General Muhammad Reza Zahedi along with a group of his comrades received the reward of years of sincere struggle on the night of Qadr and the day of martyrdom of Amir Mominan Ali (AS) to be blessed with God's grace in the circle of saints and martyrs.

Martyr Zahedi's strategic role in forming and strengthening the resistance front, as well as the design and implementation of the Al-Aqsa Storm, is one of the great honors that will make the silent efforts of this great commander immortal in the history of the anti-occupation regime.

The deadly blows that are inflicted on the occupiers of Al-Quds these days have brought the crime leaders of the Zionist profession to the border of helplessness and desperation, and the cowardly attack on the consulate of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Damascus is a clear proof of this claim.

Supporters of Tel Aviv should know that the harsh and regretful response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to this bloody crime is on its way, and it will certainly affect the future equations of the region in a divine way.

Once again, we send greetings and salutations to the souls of the seven martyrs of the Quds Road and we invite the zealous people of Tehran to participate in the Quds Day procession and attend the funeral of these proud mujahids.
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Could well be bluster, but certain folks on the Iranian side do seem to be making the claim.
 
Iranian ambassador to the UN Ershadi’s statement on 2nd April is pretty funny:
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“The crime committed yesterday by the Israeli regime goes beyond mere criminality; it represents a profound affront to the shared principle of the international community, namely, the inviolability of representatives and diplomatic and consular premises.​
​
This principle is a cornerstone upon which international relations are built, universally recognized, and upheld.”​

Since 1979 off the top of my head the Iranian regime has had a hand in “mob” attacks on the US, British, Saudi (more than once), Kuwaiti, and Danish embassies in Tehran, and “proxy” attacks on American and Iraqi embassies in Beirut, the American embassy in Baghdad, the American consulate in Erbil, and Israeli embassies in Buenos Aires and Bangkok. Probably a few more.
 
Traub said:
but having said all that, those who seem to support Iran’s regime and actions are not people I’ll engage with. Both the current Israeli and Iranian governments can be criticised without having to cheer on one of them.
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I honestly don't think anyone here is supporting Iran or their regime. Merely just pointing out the hypocrisy from Israel and the double standards applied to them and Iran from foreign governments. Some (myself included) have said that Iran were always going to strike back. The consulate strike was absolutely an attack on Iran itself, no matter who they killed. Biden even said he wasn't notified about it. Although that's another kettle of fish altogether as to yet again the US acting as if they should be made aware of everything and give or not give permission.

Regardless, as many here have said Iran clearly notified the world of its intention to reply and also when. It was absolutely a show to save face and all political theatre. Now pretty much everyone is jumping on them and again defending Israel, so really it has backfired. It's also taken the spotlight away from the events in Gaza and the West Bank so it's almost like a win win for Israel.

The fear now is if Nutty Netenyahu retaliates further. Given the events in Gaza we can't be sure he won't. If anything the evidence suggests the contrary. We can just hope others can calm him down and convince him to leave it now.

All I know is that the world doesn't need another war. All this is getting beyond a joke and it's time everybody sat down like adults and thrashed it all out because yet again innocent tpeople who want feck all to do with this suffer. Life is hard enough as it is at times for the majority of us and yet I hope none of us ever have to endure what the Palestinians are going though now. We don't need a similar situation in Iran, or Israel, or worse if it truly escalated, all due to lunatics thinking bombing the shit out of everything is the only answer.

The only lesson I have learned from all this is that we still haven't learned a fecking thing. It's just all so depressing and imho avoidable if the will was there from all those involved.
 
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