Of course they are. They wouldn't have royal titles and lands to rule over if it wasn't for Britain.
Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
We are seeing global politics being played out in HD. Israel attacks an Iranian consulate. Iran protests, and promises a retaliation. Iran waits and then announces the retaliation.
Normally that would be the end of it. Iran just needed to save face and their announcing the retaliation just further shows that their response was theatre and not an act of war or an attempt to further escalate the situation.
However, we have a wild card. That wild card is Benjamin Netenyahu and he's clearly lost the fecking plot and going all out to save his position and at the same time, attack his enemies.
The worst part in all this is yet again despite Israel attacking first, and Iran just countering, the UK and US back Israel and condemn and warn Iran. So once more Israel can respond however they wish with impunity knowing full well they have the backing of both countries. The news has been biased and reports skewed to ensure Iran look like the guilty party and Israel the poor hard done by one that's being bullied by yet another Muslim filled, terrorist breeding country and one who has been labelled a threat to peace in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
As mentioned by others, the hypocrisy and double standards shown by the US and UK are disgusting and just further emboldens Netenyahu to do as he pleases.
What worries me the most is wondering how far he will go?
Normally that would be the end of it. Iran just needed to save face and their announcing the retaliation just further shows that their response was theatre and not an act of war or an attempt to further escalate the situation.
However, we have a wild card. That wild card is Benjamin Netenyahu and he's clearly lost the fecking plot and going all out to save his position and at the same time, attack his enemies.
The worst part in all this is yet again despite Israel attacking first, and Iran just countering, the UK and US back Israel and condemn and warn Iran. So once more Israel can respond however they wish with impunity knowing full well they have the backing of both countries. The news has been biased and reports skewed to ensure Iran look like the guilty party and Israel the poor hard done by one that's being bullied by yet another Muslim filled, terrorist breeding country and one who has been labelled a threat to peace in the Middle East and the rest of the world.
As mentioned by others, the hypocrisy and double standards shown by the US and UK are disgusting and just further emboldens Netenyahu to do as he pleases.
What worries me the most is wondering how far he will go?
I’m no expert but surely Russia and China will limit their involvement to serve themselves. It’s not like they care deeply about Iran. Whereas the US really will back Isreal when things get tough
Israel is definitely going to attack Iran now. I guess it is going to be a strategic bombing of high-value military assets and nuclear reactors.
I'm not even sure where the whole "China, Russia gets involved" even comes from.
They have precisely 0 power projection in the region.
Yes, because Iran won’t escalate further after that. They’re trying to complete manufacturing of a nuclear weapon and that would risk it.
Iran haven't hid the fact they were going to respond. They have openly said they would. They also had every right to, after all Israel had the right to respond to the Hamas attacks in October. The double standards is sickening.
Yeah I agree broadly speaking.
but then, what happens if Israel destroys oil fields / machinery / whatever is related to that?
it's not beyond netanyahu to do stuff that directly impacts China or Russia, dragging them into this mess.
They’ll limit their involvement but Iran is incredibly important for them in the region as an Anti-West stronghold and regional agitator.
A stable and westernised Middle East isn’t something they’ll let happen.
Russia can’t even take over half of Ukraine.
They’re recruiting soldiers from South Asia.
Don’t worry @ScholesyTheWise
They’re recruiting soldiers from South Asia.
Don’t worry @ScholesyTheWise
They’re the alternate powers to the US in any theoretical WW3 argument aren’t they. WW3 isn’t going to be the US vs Iran, it’s too one-sided….got to have the big dogs in there for a credible scenario (even if it isn’t going to practically happen)
if Iran is the main supplier of oil to China, surely that means something?
might be talking out of my ass though.
But like...how?
"Oh! USA is involved with Iran again! Lets attack Taiwan!"
Russia doesn't have the capacity to even invade mongolia right now, forget anywhere else.
Israel is to blamed here. They’re dragging the world into this situation.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but so far this is seemingly a measured and calibrated response by Iran too. They announced retaliation, it was leaked to high heaven and from what I’ve seen so far the attacks have been very targeted and avoided high-causality centres and totally avoided civilian populace.
All the talk of ironclad support for Israel against these Iranian strikes - but I think Iran attacked in way that doesn’t justify Israeli ally direct response and keeps escalation in check. Sure the US et al will “support” Israel but on the back of these attacks we won’t see US bombing runs in Iran.
oh. indeed I suspected I was ill-informed on that one.
never mind then
Edit: I see now; some 90% of Iran's oil is exported to China, but this doesn't make the former true.
Absolutely..
This was after Biden explicitly told them not to.
How they are going to help Iran even if they want to? China has no military presence in the Middle East, Russia has something in Syria but in a direct confrontation with Israel they would stand no chance.
China, if it decides, can support financially Iran, but the thing is Iran is not going to get invaded or anything like that. I expect in the next few days that US/Israel is gonna bomb strategic military targets in Iran. I think hitting the Ayatollah himself from now on is gonna be fair game too, and the sanctions are gonna escalate to the point that Iran is gonna be a fully rogue state.
This will not escalate to WWIII.
I get it’s a tense situation, and lives are being lost, but try not to fall for scaremongering or to do so for others.
I agree 100% but as I said in my other post, the wild card is Netenyahu. Will he let this lie? Or will he respond. Because if he does Iran will have to do the same and then we are in a situation that might not be so easy to predict or control.
Ss it stands, Israel and Netenyahu should just suck this up and accept it for what it is. I'm just not so sure he can or will do this.
I agree….Im just saying that when people postulate a WW3 scenario, it has to include China and (to a lesser extent) Russia committing to all out war against the states. Which won’t happen, they’ll be some proxy stuff with some other counties being sacrificed as a battleground
If Biden doesn’t escalate this, his red line would be as laughable as Obama’s red line in Syria.
Don’t do it.
We don’t care, we just did it.
Okay.
I do not think that even the most harmless Israeli leader in their history (whom that would be, perhaps Ehud Barak?) would leave this go.
Netanyahu definitely will not.
So they should just accept the attack? Biden has absolutely zero credibility now and him telling Iran to not retaliate is just empty words and no comfort to the families of those who died. Of course Iran should respond. You can fecking bet the USA would have if the shoe was on the other foot.
I think Iran have actually been responsible. They announced a reply for days, then they announced it before it happened and they responded in a minimal fashion without targeting civilians.
Yet again Israel and the USA are the losers in all of this as they just come across as hypocritical bullies.
Netenyahu situation is completely fecked up.
I’m not totally up to date on the domestic read on him this week since the Iranian announcement, but it has been increasingly untenable for months now and somethings going to break in Israel.
On a personal level Netenyahu cannot let this lie. His whole schtick currently is projecting power, and prolonging conflict to protect his reign. But his lost allies domestically, he has lost allies abroad as all leaks indicate Biden’s administration has lost all patience (let alone the wider Democrats in Government).
Israel deescalates this before it goes too far is my read. Netenyahu will be forced out, there’ll be another “period of peace” where Israel re-strengthen and this whole dance happens again down the line.
But the question is how far this escalated this time.
Biden speech incoming
"Without targeting civilians?"
They targeted civilians, the ballistic missiles were aimed for Tel-Aviv, Jerusalem and co. You cannot state that Iran responded in minimal fashion because Israeli air defenses were competent.
I don't know about you, but to me a reaction to seeing your proxy commanders in Syria getting killed in an air strike is not a justification to launch hundreds of BM's and Drones at a country.
Again, I completely agree. That's exactly how I see it. As you say, it should be calmed down, but with Netenyahu still there you can't be sure. He may indeed be forced out but he can definitely start something that can't be turned around before he leaves.
what's this optimism about Bibi being forced out? by who exactly?
The civilian card doesn't work when Israel is currently committing a genocide. It's shitty of Iran but hardly makes them the only culpable party.
The attack on the consulate was a direct attack on Iran itself. Israel knew what it was doing. Yes, I admit the response can be seen as an attack on civilians but it was measured and Iran knew whatever damage or casualties would have been minimal. Just as they knew the Israeli defences would be adequate to prevent most if not all missiles and drones from getting though. I can't believe I'm defending Iran here, but I stand by my opinion that it was just a retaliation more for show and to save face. It wasn't an all out attack of retribution to escalate things further or to kill as many as possible.
Pretty much every attack by Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi’s in Israel was financed one way or another by Iran. Of course Israel was going to respond.
This is fully in Iran. And I think that the Iranian regime has miscalculated.
Is there any credible intelligence of civilian targets?
Israel isn’t a dictatorship and is also increasingly reliant on Western allies. Even without direct democracy of an election Bibi’s position can be untenable to a point of removal when the west, Israel government and the people want him out.
Yes, Ballistic missiles follow, well, a ballistic arch trajectory. It's very very easily calculated on where a BM is going to land. And, well, the alerts map show the outline of where most of them were headed. Mostly not military bases, but big cities and towns.
I see this keep getting mentioned as if Israel wouldn't be able to see 500 drones flying out of Iranian airspace towards them...
The US will have to get involved if Israel does retaliate. I'm not sure who wins in a Iran/Hezbolla war vs Israel (Solely Israel).
Yes,
Israel has conducted itself terribly in this whole conflict, but Iran has over the decades been the worst actor in the region.
The problem that Iran has with Israel is purely, purely, ideological. It isn't geopolitical in terms of rational interests, nor economic ones, it's purely, "This is muslim land, Jew's don't belong here." Israel and Iran shared a good relationship up until the revolution where all diplomatic relations were broken.
Since then, Iran has funded group after group of militia proxies around Israel to try and cut them whenever possible. Iran's problem with Israel is entirely outside the scope of the Gaza crisis.
What people are arguing is that Israel should just let IRGC commanders funnel weapons to be used on Israel by the Houthi's, Hezbollah, and Iraqi groups.
The consulate strike was wrong, but this is just as wrong if not worse.
Of course they could see. Iran fecking told them as well so it's not like they were hiding it.
I bet John Bolton is sat at home now with an empty box of tissues and a half full bottle of hand cream, shattered but happier than he's ever been before. The US war hawks and nutters who have had a boner for Iran for decades are thinking their Christmases have all come at once.