Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[That_Bloke]

Israel should apologize and the U.S. should start telling Israel that it’s a small country, not a superpower. They should say that in clear terms. Israel has the right to defend itself, but what they did in Damascus was wrong. America shouldn’t follow through with this madness. Stop Israel from being a bully in the Middle East. we don’t want more wars.



Absurd, hypocritical, maybe. However, calling for restraint given the situation is the right thing to do. Macron, for example, is right in this instance. France traditionally tries to avoid wars, and it’s good to see.

Hell will freeze over before that. Against whom exactly?

How is it that Israel is never called for restraint? As for Macron, I wouldn't put a single ounce of trust in anything that weathercock says and France plays its own game, nothing more nothing less.

I hope that Iran strikes back and in my opinion it will. Enough is enough with this rogue state, its impunity and these fecking Western double standards.

 

[4bars]

Is hypocritical ask for restraint. But I don't like to see that we are asking for retaliation to another embassy is sad. civil servant will die for the benefit of the ones that never die.. If revenge happens in an embassy, I will fully understand. But I wont be happy. If an attack should happen, should be against the ones that are causing all this pain

 

[Giggsyking]

Informed Yemeni sources reveal to The Cradle that the US offered Sanaa – in exchange for its neutrality in the ongoing Gaza war – “an acknowledgment of its legitimacy.”

This would involve severely reducing the role of the Saudi-backed Presidential Council led by Rashid al-Alimi and accelerating the signing of a roadmap with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to end the aggression against Yemen.
The sources further reveal that the Americans pledged to immediately release withheld Yemeni public sector salaries from the National Saudi Bank, lift the country’s siege entirely, reopen Sanaa Airport, ease restrictions on the port of Hodeidah, and facilitate a comprehensive prisoner exchange agreement with all involved parties.

In terms of reconstruction, the sources say:
[Washington] pledged to repair the damages, remove foreign forces from all occupied Yemeni lands and islands, and remove Ansarallah from the State Department’s ‘terrorism list’ – as soon as they stop their attacks in support of Gaza.
Despite these tempting offers, which have been the subject of negotiations between Sanaa and Riyadh for over two years, the Yemenis remained steadfast. Ansarallah leader Abdel Malik al-Houthi’s consistent position, as reiterated in his speeches, has been to continue operations as long as Israeli aggression against Gaza persists.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Giggsyking]

 

[Raven]

Informed Yemeni sources reveal to The Cradle that the US offered Sanaa – in exchange for its neutrality in the ongoing Gaza war – “an acknowledgment of its legitimacy.”

This would involve severely reducing the role of the Saudi-backed Presidential Council led by Rashid al-Alimi and accelerating the signing of a roadmap with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to end the aggression against Yemen.
The sources further reveal that the Americans pledged to immediately release withheld Yemeni public sector salaries from the National Saudi Bank, lift the country’s siege entirely, reopen Sanaa Airport, ease restrictions on the port of Hodeidah, and facilitate a comprehensive prisoner exchange agreement with all involved parties.

In terms of reconstruction, the sources say:
[Washington] pledged to repair the damages, remove foreign forces from all occupied Yemeni lands and islands, and remove Ansarallah from the State Department’s ‘terrorism list’ – as soon as they stop their attacks in support of Gaza.
Despite these tempting offers, which have been the subject of negotiations between Sanaa and Riyadh for over two years, the Yemenis remained steadfast. Ansarallah leader Abdel Malik al-Houthi’s consistent position, as reiterated in his speeches, has been to continue operations as long as Israeli aggression against Gaza persists.

Wow. That's a big offer and it takes massive cajones to reject it. Would it not be easier to tell Israel to stop?

 

[Kaos]

Wow. That's a big offer and it takes massive cajones to reject it. Would it not be easier to tell Israel to stop?

They'll exhaust every possible option before having the audacity to tell the Israelis to perhaps stop engineering a genocide and famine.

 

[4bars]

Like October 7th, If Iran attacks Israel and there is a conflict, the history of that conflict will start when Iran attacked Israel forgetting of what Israel had done. Is funny that they are accusing Iran to risk a war if hey attack Israel. I guess Iran should take any attack form Israel then?

Israel had been bombing, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and now sovereign Iran soil in Damascus but will be Iran that caused the problem

Israel government and its backers are disgusting

 

[Raven]

They'll exhaust every possible option before having the audacity to tell the Israelis to perhaps stop engineering a genocide and famine.

Pretty crazy stuff.

 

[Idxomer]

They'll exhaust every possible option before having the audacity to tell the Israelis to perhaps stop engineering a genocide and famine.

It's absurd really. They could force Israel to stop its assault and genocide on Gaza, and there could be a bit of a calm down in the region. That's not even taking into account the hundreds who keep getting murdered every week, we know they don't care about that. Instead, they're doing this type of move and right now seem to be itching to go into what could end up in a disaster with Iran.

On the other hand, I'm not sure they know the time and degree of this imminent attack like they're leaking to the media.

 

[the_cliff]

 

[That_Bloke]

No wonder.

They would be seen as directly siding with Israel against another muslim country, if they did so.

 

[4bars]

US is losing so much soft power in the region. And if they can't get control through soft power, we know how they will try to get it. It seems that we are witnessing the start of the end of US dominance since the last decade

 

[Giggsyking]

The Iraqi PM, Al-Sodani has been invited to the US and will be in Washington in 2 days for negotiations about the future relation between Iraq and the US, I heard on the news today that the Americans want to use this occasion to ask Iraq mediate for de-escalation between Iran and the US.

 

[Giggsyking]

 

[MDFC Manager]

"We are licking our lips at the prospect of this, so we can continue pumping tens of billions worth of military hardware into israel "

 

[the_cliff]

US is losing so much soft power in the region. And if they can't get control through soft power, we know how they will try to get it. It seems that we are witnessing the start of the end of US dominance since the last decade

I remember the days the UAE/Saudi were practically begging the US to go to war with Iran, now they're realising that Israel is the only red line that will make the US do that and their relationship isn't' as valued.

They've practically been forced to the negotiation table with Iran (the relationship between Iran and the Gulf states have been improving the last 2 years) and now don't want the blowback.

 

[4bars]

Defend Israel? they are the ones attacking. fecking Joe Biden. Internationally he might be worse than Trump FFS. Dreadful candidate

 

[VivaObertan]

We live in such a weird world. How is the story NOT about how one country's embassy on a second country's soil was struck, killing 13 government officials in the process... by a country committing genocide a few hundred miles away?

The UK and US governments are run by fecking morons

 

[Raven]

We live in such a weird world. How is the story NOT about how one country's embassy on a second country's soil was struck, killing 13 government officials in the process... by a country committing genocide a few hundred miles away?

The UK and US governments are run by fecking morons

They aren't morons, just evil.

 

[4bars]

I had been saying that Israel will have 0 repercussions for what is doing in Gaza, no mater what. But if they succeed aligning the whole arab peninsula + Iran + Egypt, is the only thing that can end in big trouble for them. As Israel is top dog in the region, the arab nations are not as ill equipped than in 1967.

We are far from it to have Iran and Saudi Arabia sides all lovey dovey but if the west allows Israel to have a free pass of everything and any arab nation, not only Gaza, it can push the arab league to be more unit than ever

 

[Giggsyking]

I had been saying that Israel will have 0 repercussions for what is doing in Gaza, no mater what. But if they succeed aligning the whole arab peninsula + Iran + Egypt, is the only thing that can end in big trouble for them. As Israel is top dog in the region, the arab nations are not as ill equipped than in 1967.

We are far from it to have Iran and Saudi Arabia sides all lovey dovey but if the west allows Israel to have a free pass of everything and any arab nation, not only Gaza, it can push the arab league to be more unit than ever

Arabs do not need to fire a single shot, the 1973 oil embargo shocked the world and sent the global economy into a disaster. They can wave this flag if things turn very heated.

 

[gfactor86]

I had been saying that Israel will have 0 repercussions for what is doing in Gaza, no mater what. But if they succeed aligning the whole arab peninsula + Iran + Egypt, is the only thing that can end in big trouble for them. As Israel is top dog in the region, the arab nations are not as ill equipped than in 1967.

We are far from it to have Iran and Saudi Arabia sides all lovey dovey but if the west allows Israel to have a free pass of everything and any arab nation, not only Gaza, it can push the arab league to be more unit than ever

Unlikely. The Arab nations couldn't give two shits about the Gazans.

 

[4bars]

Arabs do not need to fire a single shot, the 1973 oil embargo shocked the world and sent the global economy into a disaster. They can wave this flag if things turn very heated.

Why they didn't do it then to solve the conflict? it would be an act of self harm but yes, I get what you mean

Imagine reducing oil production and russia enjoying that also. madness

 

[4bars]

Unlikely. The Arab nations couldn't give two shits about the Gazans.

Sorry, I deleted the part (I don't know why) that if they keep going with Gaza (that I agree they don't give 2 shits), but also attacking Lebannon, Syria, then Iran and they are alienating all the arab world, pissing in mosques and the islamophobic rhetoric. They might push the arab world to a unite aggressive (active or passive) stance against Israel

 

[Idxomer]

I had been saying that Israel will have 0 repercussions for what is doing in Gaza, no mater what. But if they succeed aligning the whole arab peninsula + Iran + Egypt, is the only thing that can end in big trouble for them. As Israel is top dog in the region, the arab nations are not as ill equipped than in 1967.

We are far from it to have Iran and Saudi Arabia sides all lovey dovey but if the west allows Israel to have a free pass of everything and any arab nation, not only Gaza, it can push the arab league to be more unit than ever

Arabs do not need to fire a single shot, the 1973 oil embargo shocked the world and sent the global economy into a disaster. They can wave this flag if things turn very heated.

None of that will happen. Arab rulers aren't only in a far worse shape than in either 73 or even 67 but they are all pretty much in bed with Israel and the US. Some of them are hated by Palestinians and most of the Arabs as much as Netanyahu and Biden, probably even more.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Nonsense reports:

US Basing Rights in those countries make those areas a leased part of sovereign territory.

It's like asking US not to launch do [X] from Okinawa, the Japanese government owns those lands but the basing agreements state that what the Americans do on those bases is entirely at their own discretion.

 

[That_Bloke]

Nonsense reports:

US Basing Rights in those countries make those areas a leased part of sovereign territory.

It's like asking US not to launch do [X] from Okinawa, the Japanese government owns those lands but the basing agreements state that what the Americans do on those bases is entirely at their own discretion.

We'll see how it goes.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Sorry, I deleted the part (I don't know why) that if they keep going with Gaza (that I agree they don't give 2 shits), but also attacking Lebannon, Syria, then Iran and they are alienating all the arab world, pissing in mosques and the islamophobic rhetoric. They might push the arab world to a unite aggressive (active or passive) stance against Israel

This will not happen:

Saudi Arabia is entirely dependent on the West for security.
Jordan is entirely dependent on the West for security - I was at Sandhurst with one of their Princes.
Egypt is a Western Puppet.
Iraq is so overrun by foreign influence it has no identifiable self foreign policy
Gulf States don't care and are wholly dependent on the West for defense.

The only actors in that region who would be willing to put up a fight with Israel are Iran, Houthi's, Syria, Hezbollah and some Iraqi Militia.

Even Lebanon are pretty pro west, but they're a failed state who have lost control of their southern regions.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

We'll see how it goes.

I can tell you how it will go if it does come to that:

US launches strikes from those bases
Gulf States Protest and say they will kick the Americans out
Have backroom discussions with US officials and tell them that they publically had to say that but don't actually mean it.
Do nothing and wait for the news cycle to finish
Nothing changes.

Why is this the way it will go?

Iraq did the same thing.

1) Solemani get's minced.
2) Iraq parliament passes act to kick out American forces in Iraq
3) Meeting with US officials 4 days later, US agrees to "leave"
4) 3 weeks later Iraq parliament passes act to extend the lease of all US bases without any fanfare.
5) Nothing changes.

 

[the_cliff]

I can tell you how it will go if it does come to that:

US launches strikes from those bases
Gulf States Protest and say they will kick the Americans out
Have backroom discussions with US officials and tell them that they publically had to say that but don't actually mean it.
Do nothing and wait for the news cycle to finish
Nothing changes.

Why is this the way it will go?

Iraq did the same thing.

1) Solemani get's minced.
2) Iraq parliament passes act to kick out American forces in Iraq
3) Meeting with US officials 4 days later, US agrees to "leave"
4) 3 weeks later Iraq parliament passes act to extend the lease of all US bases without any fanfare.
5) Nothing changes.

This is different. It was Israel that attacked Iran not the US. The majority of the Arab world won't give a damn if the US and Iran went at it. In fact, it would be a cause for celebration in the Arab world. The US attacking Iran in this situation is different, they would be seen as defending the Israeli genocide and any attack on Iran that is seen as being backed by any Arab country will cause more problems to that Arab country than anything Iran could do to them.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

This is different. It was Israel that attacked Iran not the US. The majority of the Arab world won't give a damn if the US and Iran went at it. In fact, it would be a cause for celebration in the Arab world. The US attacking Iran in this situation is different, they would be seen as defending the Israeli genocide and any attack on Iran that is seen as being backed by any Arab country will cause more problems to that Arab country than anything Iran could do to them.

Qatar, UAE and Bahrain do not have any kind of leverage to do this.

US pulls their contracts and those three countries are left with absolutely nothing. Their entire military relies on Western technicians, Western equipment, western contractors to maintain said equipment and western supplied ammunition.

"Leave"
"We will take your entire military with us if we go"
"...ah shit"

 

[the_cliff]

Qatar, UAE and Bahrain do not have any kind of leverage to do this.

US pulls their contracts and those three countries are left with absolutely nothing. Their entire military relies on Western technicians, Western equipment, western contractors to maintain said equipment and western supplied ammunition.

"Leave"
"We will take your entire military with us if we go"
"...ah shit"

Well tbf you know more than me on the ins and outs of US bases. The point still stands that they're releasing these reports for fear of the consequences from both Iran and their own populations.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Well tbf you know more than me on the ins and outs of US bases. The point still stands that they're releasing these reports for fear of the consequences from both Iran and their own populations.

I would read into these statements the same way I would read into the statements of US officials "not happy with what Israel are doing and to urge restraint"

 

[That_Bloke]

I can tell you how it will go if it does come to that:

US launches strikes from those bases
Gulf States Protest and say they will kick the Americans out
Have backroom discussions with US officials and tell them that they publically had to say that but don't actually mean it.
Do nothing and wait for the news cycle to finish
Nothing changes.

Why is this the way it will go?

Iraq did the same thing.

1) Solemani get's minced.
2) Iraq parliament passes act to kick out American forces in Iraq
3) Meeting with US officials 4 days later, US agrees to "leave"
4) 3 weeks later Iraq parliament passes act to extend the lease of all US bases without any fanfare.
5) Nothing changes.

I knew you'd come up with Iraq.

The major caveat you missed, is that the Gulf War was carried out with Israel willfully not participating for fear of the Arab "allies" abandoning ship. The latter were more than happy to bring down the most dangerous asshole amongst a plethora of assholes. For all your considerable military knowledge, which I am the first to acknowledge, you lack the understanding of the subtleties the Arab world works on, for the better and mostly the worst.

You have an over-inflated opinion of your country and the pull it has in the Middle-Eastern countries. Once the chips go down and a real chance presents itself to get one over the US without any major blowback, they'll drop you like a bad habit. They don't like you, in fact they hate the living shit out of you. They're only playing nice right now because you have a big, loaded gun pointed at their forefront. With good reason.

Since WWII, the US has been nothing but the biblical grasshoppers, a blight to the region that only brought death and misery. Military might isn't everything and the Arab countries are just biding their time. They play the long game, just like Iran, China or any country in the (broad) region. This isn't measured in years but in decades or centuries, a notion that escapes the US and the West.

Regardless of the current geopolitical games, there's a redline any dictator in the Arab countries will never cross without signing their own death warrant, and that's being directly associated with doing Israel's dirty work. Their population will never accept it. Good luck convincing them that being the support base for destroying a muslim country on behalf of Israel is a great idea.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

I knew you'd come up with Iraq.

The major caveat you missed, is that the Gulf War was carried out with Israel willfully not participating for fear of the Arab "allies" abandoning ship. The latter were more than happy to bring down the most dangerous asshole amongst a plethora of assholes. For all your considerable military knowledge, which I am the first to acknowledge, you lack the understanding of the subtleties the Arab world works on, for the better and mostly the worst.

You have an over-inflated opinion of your country and the pull it has in the Middle-Eastern countries. Once the chips go down and a real chance presents itself to get one over the US without any major blowback, they'll drop you like a bad habit. They don't like you, in fact they hate the living shit out of you. They're only playing nice right now because you have a big, loaded gun pointed at their forefront. With good reason.

Since WWII, the US has been nothing but the biblical grasshoppers, a blight to the region that only brought death and misery. Military might isn't everything and the Arab countries are just biding their time. They play the long game, just like Iran, China or any country in the (broad) region. This isn't measured in years but in decades or centuries, a notion that escapes the US and the West.

Regardless of the current geopolitical games, there's a redline any dictator in the Arab countries will never cross without signing their own death warrant, and that's being directly associated with doing Israel's dirty work. Their population will never accept it. Good luck convincing them that being the support base for destroying a muslim country on behalf of Israel is a great idea.

Yeah Uhhh, I'm British-Ukrainian.

Also, how does the 2020 Iraq-US relations have anything to do with the Gulf War? I'm a little puzzled by this post in all honesty.

I'm also not sure if this post is really grounded in reality as the ruling class of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are massive massive anglophiles.

 

[That_Bloke]

Yeah Uhhh, I'm British-Ukrainian.

Also, how does the 2020 Iraq-US relations have anything to do with the Gulf War? I'm a little puzzled by this post in all honesty.

Ah, that's why you're so hell-bent on denigrating any Russian capability. I'd have sworn you were American. My baaaad.

All jokes aside and regardless of my unceremonious tone, I truly appreciate your posts and am learning a lot from your feedback. I truly am no match when it comes to your military knowledge and will also gladly acknowledge my (few) short-comings in understanding the current situation in the region, when proven wrong.

The 2020 Iraq-US relations didn't come out of nowhere, did they now? Or are you willing to get rid of what happened between 1970 and 2020, especially the Iran-Iraq War, Desert Storm, and the 2003 Iraqi Destruction Freedom playing a major role? Do you really think that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE would've been on onboard if Israel had actively participated in Desert Storm?

Also, as far as I know, the UK doesn't move so much as a pinkie on an international level without the US saying so. Am I wrong?