Three decent candidates (for a change vote) across those two counties (just going by sitting TDs).
Irish Politics
- Thread starter JakeC
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) are here to discuss Amad saving our blushes in a win against Southampton as well as our now annual loss at home to Brighton. They discuss Amorim's post-match comments, revisit how mid-table we may or may not be, and discuss some transfer news.
Great decision so.
5 or 6 in my constituency.
I voted down the ballot for everyone else and left them out.
Yes.
I'm celebrating SF being highest even though there is margin of error.
I'm celebrating SF being highest even though there is margin of error.
This is bad no? FG as popular as SF means more FFG.
That exit poll is feckin depressing. FG actually up
Their mothers told them to vote FF or FG. Voting someone else doesn't compute
On what? They had 20.9% of the actual vote in 2020.
Looks like SF will have most seats. Does it stop coalition? Maybe not. But it's again another verdict against each of FF and FG. Thus FFG. If that happens, it's an indictment on the nation imo.
.1% up. I mean that's tiny.
Mad stuff
They're up on the exit poll according to this lot on RTE but either way it's more of the same.
It'll be FF/FG again with some smattering of Green/Labour/Independents. The SDs apparently said they'd drive a hard bargain which probably rules them out of a coalition.
This is all RedCs fault
Talking heads on RTE are saying FF are down, FG aren't particularly up, Independents are way down and the block on the left are around par.
Who are the big winners based on the exit poll so? I don't really understand who has picked up the votes they were expecting for the 3 above?
Who are the big winners based on the exit poll so? I don't really understand who has picked up the votes they were expecting for the 3 above?
Happy with that exit poll.
Aontu, SD and I think Labour are up.
All the auld lads and women on rte voting FFG because they’re happy with the current government or because they voted for them their whole life, that’s the shite we’re dealing with. Will be interesting to see the age disparity in voting.
The difference this time, if the MOE breaks for SF, is that it is they get the first chance to form a government (it will translate into seats this time). We'll see.
Last time out: FF, SF, FG.
So exit poll had SF at 22% or something last time. Anyway, if it breaks the way of the exit poll even, how does this translate into seats? Long day tomorrow. The expectation is that it'll be FFG again. If that's the case then the country is genuinely fecked. The political system (or the system itself) will have ignored a vote for change, in form of largest party, twice.
Last time out: FF, SF, FG.
| 22.2% | 24.5% | 20.9% |
So exit poll had SF at 22% or something last time. Anyway, if it breaks the way of the exit poll even, how does this translate into seats? Long day tomorrow. The expectation is that it'll be FFG again. If that's the case then the country is genuinely fecked. The political system (or the system itself) will have ignored a vote for change, in form of largest party, twice.
Why are you sure it translates into seats this time? They're not getting transfers from either if the other two.
Fall from 24.5% to 21% while in opposition against a shite government. They're hopeless.
Aontu were projected to win 2.5 - 4% , SD between 4.5 - 6% and Labour between 3.5 - 5%. All are within that.
It's weird to see an exit poll where a few will be disappointed but nobody would really feel like a winner.
Social democrats did well.
You’d assume they got a lot of the people who fell off the greens for going into bed with FFG.
The people on RTE were comparing to 2020, not to projections though.
It's basically more of the same. SF would have needed a massive surge to make any difference to FF/FG.
Nah, against the entire apparatus of state. Not just a shite government. You need to do some homework. It's a marvel they're still the largest if this bears out considering the fact that every paper and every newspaper is against them and has been for the entire four/five year period.
Yeah I get you. I felt from the way they were speaking, they were expecting certain parties to have more but just couldn't figure out from where.
I also don't get how a sample size of 5k from 3m can have such a low margin for error, but I guess people smarter than me stand by it so there must be something there.
SF did plenty on their own to ruin the momentum they had from 2020, let’s be real.
Examples? They weren't perfect but again, the entire state was against them. Let's not pretend otherwise.
The other thing is: the government, including the Greens, are down 6% on their last performance. The minor party shafted as per normal. Why would any minor party do it again? Surely only Labour could be the party that goes in? And they have had to build themselves up over a decade because of what happened the last time they did that. But feck knows.
Good article on it here https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/2024/1129/1483809-exit-polls/
All the shit with McMonagle for one? Their changing policies, Mary Lou herself not being a particular inspiring leader the last 5 years. They had so much momentum in 2020 and made a balls if it, the proof is there. You can’t attribute such a massive drop purely to the media being biased against them. They were polling 30+% at one point!
Jesus. No ownership at all in SF?
Ownership of what? They've consistently said what was required. Housing, healthcare, education. They were in opposition and again have polled as the largest party. What ownership should they take?
As a former Marxist, I absolutely can attribute that drop almost entirely to the state apparatus. It has been so one-sided that you'd think it was owned by FFG, which, I suppose it is because they do the bidding of that apparatus and vice versa.
You cite this or that scandal. If the media covered the government scandals every day of the week as they should have there wouldn't have been a drop. At least nowhere near what it was.
I don't think the 30% was ever really accurate though, was it? Opinion polls are not all that trust-worthy especially mid-way through a government's term.
At a guess, FFG + Labour + some Independents.
My 1 and 2 evens me out to a net 0. It's what Ten Hag would have wanted.
Ownership of the fact that they are yet to outline a coherent policy on anything you've mentioned. Housing has been their strong point and then Mary Lou talks about having houses available in Dublin for a fiver or whatever ludicrous price she came up with. None of their proposals are costed in an honest manner, it's populist shite.
They're talking some shite here.
One second she's telling us how partisan politics is dead and people are no longer voting the way their parents did, and then on the other; wondering why Ireland is bucking Western trends and still backing the incumbents.
One second she's telling us how partisan politics is dead and people are no longer voting the way their parents did, and then on the other; wondering why Ireland is bucking Western trends and still backing the incumbents.
That's literally not true.
And the manifesto is there to read.
You're on the magic money tree line from the Corbyn election but these dynamics aren't the same (except each faced the weight of their respective state apparati against them). If you listen to the debates, weekly, you'd know SF have outlined very easy and simple (and sometimes complex) solutions for housing. Their shadow minister for housing wrote two books on the topic. He's been excellent for what it's worth. You're spouting shite.
And how is it populist? Housing crisis, healthcare crisis, and education inadequacies. Record homelessness. What is populist here? As in blatantly false for the sake of engagement?
Sinn Fein toys being thrown from pram 
'against the state' etc etc - they were on course to walk this election to a big lead as largest party and seemed to do everything in their power to lose their lead. One issue has cost them, and its about that simple
'against the state' etc etc - they were on course to walk this election to a big lead as largest party and seemed to do everything in their power to lose their lead. One issue has cost them, and its about that simpleHah, no one can afford a house.Sinn Fein toys being thrown from pram
Healthcare is basically an apartheid system (in its two tiers without balance).
Homelessness is through the fecking roof.
What a laugh.
Blame the opposition, too, (which won the election albeit by a small margin in terms of being largest party) because that's who is to blame here. fecking mentalists.
"If voting changed anything, they would make it illegal." Emma Goldman.