Grand National 2012

Cutch

Full Member
Joined
Nov 13, 2008
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Northern Ireland. Stretty W3102, Row 2, Seat 129
My favourite sporting event of the year on this Saturday at 4.15pm. The Aintree meeting starting tomorrow.

Who are your fancies or what are your Grand National memories?

Here are the current entries for the big race with my own shortlist in bold. Looking for my first winner in a few years, had a great record before that. Attended 8yrs in a row but have missed the last two. Great day out.

1 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9-11-10 Jonjo O’Neill A P McCoy
2 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11-11-09 Donald McCain Jason Maguire
3 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9-11-08 Donald McCain Timmy Murphy
4 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 9-11-06 Henrietta Knight Dominic Elsworth
5 NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 11-11-06 Paul Nicholls Daryl Jacob
6 ALFA BEAT (IRE) 8-11-05 John Hanlon IRE Davy Russell
7 PLANET OF SOUND 10-11-05 Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson
8 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13-11-03 Dessie Hughes IRE Dennis O’Regan
9 DEEP PURPLE 11-11-03 Evan Williams Jamie Moore
10 JUNIOR 9-11-02 David Pipe Tom Scudamore
11 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 9-10-13 Gordon Elliott IRE Paul Carberry
12 TATENEN (FR) 8-10-13 Richard Rowe Andrew Thornton
13 ACCORDING TO PETE 11-10-12 Malcolm Jefferson Harry Haynes
14 SEABASS (IRE) 9-10-12 Ted Walsh IRE Ms K Wlash
15 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 8-10-12 Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty
16 WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 10-10-12 Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
17 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 8-10-11 Willie Mullins IRE Ruby Walsh
18 ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 10-10-10 John Wade James Reveley
19 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 10-10-10 Evan Williams Paul Moloney
20 RARE BOB (IRE) 10-10-09 Dessie Hughes IRE Bryan Cooper
21 MON MOME (FR) 12-10-08 Venetia Williams Aiden Coleman
22 ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 7-10-08 Arthur Moore IRE Ms Nina Carberry
23 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 11-10-08 Willie Mullins IRE Paul Townend
24 TREACLE (IRE) 11-10-08 Tom Taaffe IRE Andrew Lynch
25 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10-10-07 Jonjo O’Neill intended runner
26 SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 9-10-05 Jonjo O’Neill Richie McLernon
27 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10-10-04 Stuart Crawford IRE Robbie Power
28 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 8-10-04 Willie Mullins IRE David casey
29 THARAWAAT (IRE) 7-10-04 Gordon Elliott IRE intended runner
30 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 9-10-03 Noel Glynn IRE Davy Condon
31 STATE OF PLAY 12-10-03 Evan Williams Noel Fehily
32 SWING BILL (FR) 11-10-03 David Pipe intended runner
33 POSTMASTER 10-10-02 Tim Vaughan intended runner
34 GILES CROSS (IRE) 10-10-01 Victor Dartnall Paddy Brennan
35 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10-10-00 Kim Bailey Sean Quinlan
36 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 12-10-00 Dessie Hughes IRE ——————–
37 VIKING BLOND (FR) 7-10-00 Nigel Twiston-Davies
38 IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12-10-00 Dessie Hughes IRE Leighton Aspell
39 HELLO BUD (IRE) 14-10-00 Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies
40 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9-9-09 Brian Ellison ———————-

41 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 9-9-08 Martin Keighley Alan Cawley
42 OUR ISLAND (IRE) 7-9-07 Tim Vaughan ———————-
43 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 11-9-05 George Bewley Ryan Mania
44 SMOKING ACES (IRE) 8-9-05 Tom Taaffe IRE ———————- ]
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Sunnyhillboy and West End Rocker probably the standout stats picks imo. WER with slight doubts about whether its too long since its last run, but i think it'll be there or thereabouts. Chicago Grey is a proven stayer but might leave itself with too much ground to catch up or be at risk from fallen horses in the pack. Rare Bob has the required class in handicaps but hasn't been in the best form. The Midnight Club was favourite for this last year and finished 6th despite having some bad luck so may fly under the radar as an outsider. My main fancy is Killyglen, ran really well last year until it was hampered by the eventual winner, and fell 2 later. Has had a breathing op since, a very good prep, another years experience and a win last time out.

Ground should dry out a bit the rest of the week which should help all my picks. Should be very competitive race. Can't wait!
 
He might be a stats pick but Sunnyhillboy doesn't jump well enough to get round.

If the ground is on the slow side I would be against anything carrying more than 11st.

At this stage I have Chicago Grey, Cappa Bleu, Becauseicouldntsee and Giles Cross.
 
Not a huge racing follower, but I've seen the National-winning trainers, one of the best being Jonjo O'Neill, who trains Synchronised. The name rang a bell, and I see it to be the horse who beat Long Run in the Gold Cup. What kind of history do Gold Cup runners/winners have in the National? Are there any trends worth following?

EDIT: Turns out it hasn't been done since 1934. Anyone know why that might be? I always thought they trained the horse for either the National or the Gold Cup, winning both in the space of a month does sound quite the challenge.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/apr/09/tony-mccoy-champion-jockey-grand-national?newsfeed=true
 
Yes Liam, i think the problem is usually the recovery period between the Gold Cup and a race as gruelling as the National that takes every ounce of energy. The hike in weights is also a problem with the likes of Synchronised carrying 11st 12lbs, which will usually find something carrying a stone lighter too quick in the run in.

Nearco, what do you think of Killyglen? Doubts whether it can stay (Strong Gale) but the rest of its pedigree looks pretty good and i thought it was put out of its stride rather than fatigued in the race last year when going really well.
 
Killyglens had a breathing op as well which is always a plus, he should be bang there. Robbie Power was adamant he'd plenty left last year when he exited.
 
I'd give Killyglen a chance but he has a form line with Cappa Bleu who I fancy a lot more.
 
I'm seeing a few horses being well tipped if the ground's soft, in other words, it isn't right now, plus I've seen the weather, and there doesn't seem to be much rain, yet I heard someone mention it's soft. Anyone know anything?
 
It won't be soft as the rain is intermittent and the course drains quickly.
 
Gents I am after some tips for Ladies Day at Aintree today

Drop me a PM please and I shall check my phone. Last year the Caf was good to me, especially Evra!
 
Chicago Grey. Will stay and is effective on pretty much any ground although wouldn't want it too soft. Excellent up and coming trainer and he does look well handicapped to me.

Cappa Bleu. Thorough stayer who has run really well this season. He'll be staying on at the death and I'll be surprised if he doesn't place.
Becauseicouldntsee. Fell at the second last year but was too exuberant. He's a front runner who ran excellently at Cheltenham. A good back to lay proposition at Betfair as he will go under 10/1 in running.

Giles Cross. I would love soft ground for this animal as those conditions would make him the first actual nailed on winner since Earth Summit had bog like conditions all those years ago. Might still get placed even on good but wouldn't have the pace to win. Rain dance needed.

Neptune Collonges. Can't see him winning with such a big weight but he and Giles Cross pulled miles clear of the rest in a Grand National trial at Haydock a few weeks ago. Classy horse who has placed in a Gold Cup. I have 10/1 on him placing.

Victor Chandler are paying the first six home. Worth having an account with them.
 
15 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 8-10-12 Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty

This one for a cheaky each-way bet
 
Backing 4 in this. Cappa Bleu, Shakalakaboomboom, West End Rocker and Midnight haze as my outside chance. Ew on all of those.

I imagine it'll be a 1,2,3,4 for me.
 
One of the top 10 in the betting usually win: Synchronised, Shakalakaboomboom, Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy, West End Rocker, On His Own, Becauseicouldntsee, Cappa Bleu, Killyglen & Junior.
 
I went for Ballabriggs (£5 e/w), Shakalakaboomboom (£2.50 e/w) + Killy Glen (£2.50 e/w).

Got Cappa Bleu in the sweep at work.
 
I've laid out £130 on the national this year, reckon I'm gonna get the winner and a big each way up!

£55 win SEABASS
£10 win SYNCHRONISED
£5 win BALLABRIGGS
£5 win SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
£5 win NEPTUNE COLLONGES
£10 e/w VIKING BLOND
£10 e/w ARBOR SUPREME
£5 e/w WEIRD AL

Hopefully SEABASS to win and VIKING BLOND and ARBOR SUPREME to finish 3rd and 4th, will net me over £2500 :devil:
 
First female Grand National winner today btw, when SEABASS wins. ;)
 
I've only put down £85 and all on winners.

Ballabriggs 14/1 £15 = £210 plus stake
Synchronised 9/1 £15= £135 plus stake
Shakalakaboomboom 14/1 £15 = £210 plus stake
Seabass 14/1 £15 = £210 plus stake
West End Rocker 16/1 £15 = £240 plus stake
Giles Cross 20/1 = £10 £200 plus stake

So if one of them wins, I make more than I laid out which I'm happy with. Hopefully it's Seabass, Shakalaka fecking ridiculous name, or West End Rocker.
 
Scrumpet said:
I have a total of £4 riding on this but I'm holding up ok.
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Same man, same. More nervous about my Duisberg, Dortmund, Munich treble. 1 winner so far, Dortmund winning, Munich play later.
 
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