El Niño effect

Sassy Colin

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2015/2016 will have the the most devastating El Niño effect since 1987/8, hence the storms & flooding in the Britain at the moment, but it looks like the worst is yet to come as it will affect many countries throughout the World.

The final sentence is interesting, not sure whether this is true or not, or just a US agenda re: Global warming denial.

The El Niño of 1997-98 was the worst on record. It caused an estimated 23,000 deaths worldwide as widespread drought, flooding and other natural disasters rocked the globe.

The catastrophic weather system also caused the most devastating coral bleaching in recorded history, killing off about 16 percent of the world’s reef systems. In the U.S., the total economic impact of that year’s El Niño was between $10 billion and $25 billion.

Sounds bad? Well, according to NASA, we may now be facing an equally-destructive El Niño; one that's poised to only worsen in the first few months of 2016.

The weather system -- which has already wreaked havoc globally, contributing to the East Coast’s balmy Christmas, deadly storms in the South and the worst floods in South America in 50 years -- “shows no signs of waning,” NASA wrote on Dec. 29.

The agency added that the latest satellite image of this year's super El Niño “bears a striking resemblance to one from December 1997.”

“The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Niño. Higher-than-normal sea surface heights are an indication that a thick layer of warm water is present,” it wrote.

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With the very worst of the droughts, flooding and other extreme weather events expected to come in the coming months, humanitarian organizations have expressed concern about the mounting needs of the world's most vulnerable.

Aid organization Oxfam International said that the effects of this year's El Niño are “set to put the world’s humanitarian system under an unprecedented level of strain in 2016.”

“The El Niño weather system could leave tens of millions of people facing hunger, water shortages and disease next year if early action isn't taken to prepare vulnerable people from its effects,” the organization said in a Dec. 30 press release.

In Ethiopia, for example, an estimated 10.2 million people will need humanitarian assistance in 2016, Oxfam said; while in Malawi, about 2.8 million people may require assistance before March.

In the U.S., the worst El Niño impacts can be expected in the early part of this year, said NASA.

For parts of the West Coast, however, this may be a boon more than bane. Matt Sitkowski, a weather producer at The Weather Channel, told NBC News that “wetter and stormier” conditions could be expected in drought-stricken California for the next two or three months.

“The East Coast could easily be affected, too. The 1997-1998 El Niño caused a crippling ice storm in New England and southeastern Canada,” NBC wrote.

According to NASA, “El Niños are triggered when winds in the Pacific weaken or reverse direction, resulting in a warming of the ocean in the central and eastern Pacific, mainly along the Equator. Clouds and storms follow the warm water, altering jet stream paths and storm paths around the world.”

Though El Niño isn't directly caused by climate change, scientists say global warming ups the intensity of the weather event.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nasa-el-nino_568a065de4b014efe0dad0c5
 
2015/2016 will have the the most devastating El Niño effect since 1987/8, hence the storms & flooding in the Britain at the moment, but it looks like the worst is yet to come as it will affect many countries throughout the World.

The final sentence is interesting, not sure whether this is true or not, or just a US agenda re: Global warming denial.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nasa-el-nino_568a065de4b014efe0dad0c5
Pretty sure el nino has been around far far longer than the recent climate change. There may be something in the frequnecy of it though. I wouldn't say there is a us agenda. Perhaps some nutjobs running for President but I doubt the general population are much different, if at all, to the UK or other European countries.

Oddly enough, on strong years it means extremely high levels or near no snow in the north east of the USA. Shows how complex weather is.
 
There have been warnings knocking about for at least the last 18 months that another major El Nino event was coming. That little has been invested in improving the resilience of vulnerable communities reflects on the inability of politicians to deal with risk sensibly.
 
Pretty sure el nino has been around far far longer than the recent climate change. There may be something in the frequnecy of it though. I wouldn't say there is a us agenda. Perhaps some nutjobs running for President but I doubt the general population are much different, if at all, to the UK or other European countries.

Oddly enough, on strong years it means extremely high levels or near no snow in the north east of the USA. Shows how complex weather is.
Actually I'm loving the weather this year, no snow, using t-shirts with a light jacket, my gas bill low :)
 
El Nino is actually beneficial for some places, e.g. the ski areas around Lake Tahoe. Most of California stands to benefit from all the extra rain and snow, though there will no doubt be some mudslides, wind damage and floods.
 
El Nino is actually beneficial for some places, e.g. the ski areas around Lake Tahoe. Most of California stands to benefit from all the extra rain and snow, though there will no doubt be some mudslides, wind damage and floods.

Maybe in North America. Here in Europe a lot of the ski resorts are still green on the lower levels and are crying out for a good dumping of snow.
 
When they say "the economic cost" was £10bn-£25bn. Who exactly is footing the bill and the owner of the word "cost"? When something costs £25bn, there is someone profiting, no?

That's a genuine question, I realise it comes across as a cynical critique.
 
When they say "the economic cost" was £10bn-£25bn. Who exactly is footing the bill and the owner of the word "cost"? When something costs £25bn, there is someone profiting, no?

That's a genuine question, I realise it comes across as a cynical critique.


Yeh they will be talking about the invoices sent between parties in the re-construction efforts. Very lucrative contracts for many businesses I'm sure, especially if their customer is a government. The money stays in the economy though, slowly gets fed back in taxes etc.
Governmental costs will always of course also include the salaries of people that would have got paid anyway for sticking their thumbs up their asses or something.

I'm sure there is an argument somewhere for natural disasters setting back economic growth (producing more with less) in some parts of the world, but I think that is beyond the average Journo.
 
If this was in any other forum there would definitely have been a Torres joke by now.