Cheltenham Festival

Nearco

youth team player
Joined
Jun 2, 2005
Messages
3,201
Location
Preston
Huge week of racing ahead next week.

Tuesday:

Binocular is a very short price for the Champion Hurdle but looks a cut above these. I`m gonna back Harchibald EW if the ground is good.

I`m on Cousin Vinny at 5s for the Supreme Novices. Can be a tough race and shocks do occur but it`s a good bet.

Wednesday:

Master Minded could be the best chaser since Arkle. Unfortunately it`s a poor field for the Queen Mother so a cakewalk like last year is on the cards unless Well Chief can return to something like his best. I`ll probably back Pipe`s animal EW on the day.
I`ll back Massinis Maguire in the RSA Chase once he`s a confirmed runner. EW at 16s.

Thursday:

My biggest punting day - I`m against Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle. If he was as good as the pundits say he is he`d have won last year. I`m on Punchestowns at 3s and 7/2 and may go in again.
Voy Por Ustedes looks the biggest hotpot (Master Minded apart) of the week in the Ryanair and i`m on at 9/2 - cert if he stays on his feet.

Friday:
I have Walkon in the Triumph and i`m against Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. I just don`t think his jumping will hold up - he is a better horse going right handed. I backed Exotic Dancer for this in November at 65 on Betfair. 7/1 on returning champ Denman was too tempting to resist earlier in the week and he`s a cracking each way bet.

Best Bet (at current odds) - Punchestowns

Best Lay (at current odds) - Kauto Star
 
Huge week of racing ahead next week.

Tuesday:

Binocular is a very short price for the Champion Hurdle but looks a cut above these. I`m gonna back Harchibald EW if the ground is good.

I`m on Cousin Vinny at 5s for the Supreme Novices. Can be a tough race and shocks do occur but it`s a good bet.

Wednesday:

Master Minded could be the best chaser since Arkle. Unfortunately it`s a poor field for the Queen Mother so a cakewalk like last year is on the cards unless Well Chief can return to something like his best. I`ll probably back Pipe`s animal EW on the day.
I`ll back Massinis Maguire in the RSA Chase once he`s a confirmed runner. EW at 16s.

Thursday:

My biggest punting day - I`m against Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle. If he was as good as the pundits say he is he`d have won last year. I`m on Punchestowns at 3s and 7/2 and may go in again.
Voy Por Ustedes looks the biggest hotpot (Master Minded apart) of the week in the Ryanair and i`m on at 9/2 - cert if he stays on his feet.

Friday:
I have Walkon in the Triumph and i`m against Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. I just don`t think his jumping will hold up - he is a better horse going right handed. I backed Exotic Dancer for this in November at 65 on Betfair. 7/1 on returning champ Denman was too tempting to resist earlier in the week and he`s a cracking each way bet.

Best Bet (at current odds) - Punchestowns

Best Lay (at current odds) - Kauto Star

Tuesday: I'll have Celestial Halo in the champion hurdle, according to Nicholls he's in cracking form and at 10/1 is a great e/w bet. Osana was impressive also behind Celestial Halo recently and should come on for the run and is not without a chance. I can see Binocular being turned over.

Cousin Vinny is the one to beat in the supreme novices but as Paddy Power is refunding all losing bets if he wins then its only logical to oppose him. Red Moloney at 12/1 in ladbrokes is the value of the festival, a cracking horse on the flat, i can see him winning the race granted a clear round, if not he'll go very close.

In the arkle i like the look of Follow the Plan e/w at 20/1, he's already turned over the fave Tatanen and has a real live chance in whats quite a weak race.

Wednesday: Masterminded will win handy unless his legs fall off but Well Chief if back to his best could be the one to follow him home at 16/1 for the David Pipe yard after a 2yr absence.

In the bumber get on Dunquib at 6/1. Best bumper horse he's seen according to Philip Fenton his trainer and he'll give Cooldine and Ruby a big run for their money.

The RSA chase is very open but I'm siding with Casey Jones. He outstayed the grade 1 winner Trafford Lad in L'town already this year and he looks an outstanding price.

Thursday: Kasbah Bliss without doubt in the World Hurdle. Can't see him being beaten,was told at a recent Cheltenham preview night that he'll make Punchetowns look like a point to pointer! Free money at 6/5,he's a superstar and there's no Inglis Drever to stop him this time.

Couldn't see past Vor Por Ustedes for the Ryanair chase until Imperial Commander left the reckoning for the gold cup to have a crack at this race. I still think Vor Por Ustedes will win but wouldnt be surprised if Imperial Commander turned him over for Nigel Twiston Davies.

Friday: With a clear round Kauto Star should be hard to beat but you're never assured of a clear round with him. Exotic Dancer would have beat Neptune Collange well in the lexus at l'town only for Neptune falling so having Exotic Dancer at 10's and Neptune at half that price is ridicolous and the Dancer could turn out to be a good bet. Despite that i'm sticking with the Queens horse, Barbers Shop to cause an upset,either by running into a place or maybe even more.

Best Bet (at current odds) - Red Moloney(12/1)

Best Lay (at current odds) - Binocular (6/4)
 
T

Can't see him being beaten,was told at a recent Cheltenham preview night that he'll make Punchetowns look like a point to pointer!

Whoever said that isn`t much of a judge then.
 
I read a lot of previews and to be honest not much interesting is said. I think taking heed of what jockeys/trainers say is the quick way to the poor house.
Mind you, these are Ruby Walsh`s comments about the Gold Cup in a recent preview in Cork

RW: Kauto Star deserves favouritism but I admit he is a bit vulnerable though it is hard to find one to be beat him. I’d be amazed if Exotic Dancer beat us. Neptune Collonges was very good in the Hennessy but Exotic Dancer may have beaten me in the Lexus (Neptune fell 2 out when leading) but he always comes on for his first run. You have to question the race Madison Du Berlais won and I thought Scu’s antics were fecking despicable and will be giving him the two fingers if we beat him.

:lol:
 
I read a lot of previews and to be honest not much interesting is said. I think taking heed of what jockeys/trainers say is the quick way to the poor house.
Mind you, these are Ruby Walsh`s comments about the Gold Cup in a recent preview in Cork



:lol:

Agreed but without Inglis Drever there to stop him this year I can't see past Kasbah Bliss. Ruby on the other hand- a fecking bellend, can't stand the man.Kauto Star beat Albertas Run by 8 lengths in the King George. Madison de Berlais beat Denman 20 odd lengths at kempton but Denman then had Albertas Run 20 odd lengths further back so I wouldnt be too quick to dismiss the race Pipes horse won. Personally i'd love to see Scudamore turn him over again.
 
Forpaddytheplastere is my tip of the festival. I think he was 10/1 and Tom Cooper came out and for the first time picked him as his NAP
 
Madison de Berlais beat Denman 20 odd lengths at kempton but Denman then had Albertas Run 20 odd lengths further back so I wouldnt be too quick to dismiss the race Pipes horse won.

That`s only relevent if Albertas has run (geddit) to the same level both times. And as Voy Por Ustedes was upsides him in the King George and has since put in a top class effort en-route to the Ryanair I think that`s highly unlikely.

The Gold Cup is a fairly open race this year and Kauto is too short.
 
Really looking forward to this now. I've booked Friday off work so i can enjoy Gold cup day at home.

I notice Baz hasent posted any tips this year???
 
My Life Changing Lucky 31 - My Bets for tomorrow. A Lucky 31 done EW -

13.30 Kempes
14.05 Kalahari King
14.40 Calainn Alainn
15.20 Celestrial Hero
16.00 Garde Champetre
 
Ive a couple of previews from different nights held around Ireland in the last week

Panel – Alan King, Richard Johnson, Andrew Mac, Christian Williams, Eric Mac & Davey Duggan

Supreme novices –
Richard Johnson & Christian Williams went for red moloney – needs good ground
Alan king & Andrew mac – torpecian, rest of panel Cousin vinny

Arkle
Christian Williams said Nicholls is very confident about tatenen
Davey duggan napped Kalahari King
Richard Johnson said planet of sound will go well
Andrew mac thinks trip will be too short forpaddyplasterer

Champ hurdle
All said if ground is good couldn’t oppose binocular
Richard Johnson said snap tie has great e/w chance
Andrew mac schooled osana last week said he’s in good form

Cross Country
Garde Champetre enda bolgers choice

Weds
Ballymore
King said he expects Karabak to run huge race
Eric mac said mouse morris had good word for china rock at 25/1

Sun alliance
Andrew mac said ruby fancies cooldine big time as track will suit

Queen mother
Couldn’t oppose master minded.
Johnson & Andrew mac said briarus the e/w bet at 20/1

Thursday
World Hurdle
Most went for Kasbah bliss
Johnson said fair along loves chelt & great chance of making first 3

Ryanair
King gave voy por as his best bet of the meeting,said he’s in great form.



Friday
Triumph
King thinks walkon has a great chance as improving
Eric mac said lethal weapon the best of the irish

Gold up
King gave exotic dancer e/w as he has great record at chelt
Johnson gave albertas run e/w as long as ground was good
Williams said he’ll be making it a serious test on Neptune collonges
Rest of panel were split between kauto & Neptune, no one selected denman!!


2nd preview


Preview Night from Exeter.

The panel was made up of: Panel: Phillip Hobbs, David Pipe, Paul
Nicholls, Harry Findlay, Andrew King and hosted by Zoey Bird.

Champion trainer PAUL NICHOLLS stated that he was, as always, very much
looking forward to the festival and the prospects ahead. The Arkle was
the first port of call and he said that Tatenen would prefer the ground
to be soft and the faster the pace the better and if this is the case
then he has a real chance. Paul was impressed with Celestial Halo at
Sandown and went on to say that his guy has improved a lot to give him a
real chance in the Champion Hurdle.

In the RSA Chase he stated that Sam Thomas would take the ride on What A
Friend which he is more than happy about, he said he goes well fresh. As
expected in the Champion Chase, Master Minded was high on the agenda and
his trainer went on to say he is stronger than last year and will be
very hard to beat. In the Ryanair, he said that Gwanako will have an
impossible task to beat Voy Por Ustedes. In regards to Big Buck's in the
World Hurdle he said that when he has ran three or more miles he has
only been beaten once and is still improving.

The Gold Cup was a very hot topic and he said that Kauto Star is looking
very fit and fresh. He also went on to say that Denman has improved from
the run at Kempton however it is hard to tell with him until he is on
the race track as he is not a great worker. Neptune Collonges is
improving and will need to post a career best if he is to win. Paul's
value bet of the Festival was The Nightingale in the Ballymore.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

HARRY FINDLEY, still looking forward to the festival, said that there
was a lot less pressure due to Denman. He said that he believes Mad Max
will go close in the Supreme Novices'. In the Arkle he stated he was
very biased towards Tatenen however Calgary Bay is better than people
think and also that Kalahari King has a chance. In the Champion Hurdle
Harry said that he was "getting stuck in" as he believes Binocular is in
a different league. He was also very certain about Diamond Harry in the
Ballymore with him seeing no reason to oppose him.

He believes Carruthers is made for the RSA and should definitely run. As
Paul Nicholls stated he thinks Master Minded is too strong and cannot be
beaten, he should be 1/6 rather than 1/3. In the Ryanair he is not very
keen on Voy Por Ustedes at the short price. Kasbah Bliss is also another
that Harry is very confident on, he says he will not get beat and he is
against Punchestowns. In the Triumph he likes the look of Master Of Arts
and Starluck. In the Gold Cup he says that last year's run left its mark
on Denman and he does not believe he will be the same again, he was also
never going to run in the Grand National. Harry's value bet was Aachen
in the County Hurdle.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

DAVID PIPE is very much looking forward to the Festival as the yard has
hit form at just the right time. In the Supreme Novices' he believes
Torphichen is rock solid and has a very good chance. He said Osana has a
good chance in the Champion hurdle and he will come on for his Sandown
run. In the Champion Chase he believes that Master Minded is better than
putting money in the bank while Well Chief is the only horse that could
possibly give Master Minded a race. He says that Our Vic's run in the
King George can be forgiven and he goes well fresh while Voy Por Ustedes
is the one to beat.

In regards to the Gold Cup he said that Madison Du Berlais but he
deserves to take his chance. David's value bet of the festival was
Consigliere in the Grand Annual on soft or Jewson / Festival Plate
otherwise.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

PHILLIP HOBBS although not having a squad as strong as the other
trainers has a few decent each-way shouts and would settle for a winner.
He believes that Copper Bleu has a good each-way chance in the Supreme
Novices'. He says that he wants good ground for Planet Of Sound in the
Arkle however he may run in the Grand Annual on the Friday. In regards
to the RSA Chase he is not sure he will run Massini's Maguire, he doubts
he would get three miles on soft ground. He thinks that Fair Along is a
credit to himself and has decent each-way claims in the World Hurdle and
good ground would help. His value bet of the Festival was Snap Tie in
the Champion Hurdle.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

Also at the evening was ANDREW KING, he believes Cousin Vinny will take
all the beating in the Supreme Novices'. When asked about the Arkle he
said the Tatenen has done nothing wrong because of Ireland didn't work
out for him. In the Champion Hurdle he does not believe Binocular should
be so short and he has a doubt about him coming up the hill, he has
backed Ashkazar.

He agrees with Harry Findley about Diamond Harry and he is a fan. In
the RSA he said the Gone To Lunch is a real grinder and he will not
finish outside the top three. Just like the rest of the panel he said
that Master Minded is a certainty. He said that his bet of the festival
is Voy Por Ustedes in the Ryanair. In the World Hurdle he states that
Kasbah Bliss is all class and he says that he would be more worried
about the form of the Nicky Henderson yard than Puchestowns. In the Gold
Cup he says that Kauto Star is obvious and Madison Du Berlais should be
bigger as the Kempton form means nothing and if the ground is decent
Albertas Run has good each-way claims. His value bet of the festival was
Bensalem in the Albert Bartlett.
 
Anyone doing United in the 4.40 today?

My Bets for today

Ainama
Tartak
Possol
Celestial Halo
L'ami
Give it Time
 
Ive a couple of previews from different nights held around Ireland in the last week

Panel – Alan King, Richard Johnson, Andrew Mac, Christian Williams, Eric Mac & Davey Duggan

Supreme novices –
Richard Johnson & Christian Williams went for red moloney – needs good ground
Alan king & Andrew mac – torpecian, rest of panel Cousin vinny

Arkle
Christian Williams said Nicholls is very confident about tatenen
Davey duggan napped Kalahari King
Richard Johnson said planet of sound will go well
Andrew mac thinks trip will be too short forpaddyplasterer

Champ hurdle
All said if ground is good couldn’t oppose binocular
Richard Johnson said snap tie has great e/w chance
Andrew mac schooled osana last week said he’s in good form

Cross Country
Garde Champetre enda bolgers choice

Weds
Ballymore
King said he expects Karabak to run huge race
Eric mac said mouse morris had good word for china rock at 25/1

Sun alliance
Andrew mac said ruby fancies cooldine big time as track will suit

Queen mother
Couldn’t oppose master minded.
Johnson & Andrew mac said briarus the e/w bet at 20/1

Thursday
World Hurdle
Most went for Kasbah bliss
Johnson said fair along loves chelt & great chance of making first 3

Ryanair
King gave voy por as his best bet of the meeting,said he’s in great form.



Friday
Triumph
King thinks walkon has a great chance as improving
Eric mac said lethal weapon the best of the irish

Gold up
King gave exotic dancer e/w as he has great record at chelt
Johnson gave albertas run e/w as long as ground was good
Williams said he’ll be making it a serious test on Neptune collonges
Rest of panel were split between kauto & Neptune, no one selected denman!!


2nd preview


Preview Night from Exeter.

The panel was made up of: Panel: Phillip Hobbs, David Pipe, Paul
Nicholls, Harry Findlay, Andrew King and hosted by Zoey Bird.

Champion trainer PAUL NICHOLLS stated that he was, as always, very much
looking forward to the festival and the prospects ahead. The Arkle was
the first port of call and he said that Tatenen would prefer the ground
to be soft and the faster the pace the better and if this is the case
then he has a real chance. Paul was impressed with Celestial Halo at
Sandown and went on to say that his guy has improved a lot to give him a
real chance in the Champion Hurdle.

In the RSA Chase he stated that Sam Thomas would take the ride on What A
Friend which he is more than happy about, he said he goes well fresh. As
expected in the Champion Chase, Master Minded was high on the agenda and
his trainer went on to say he is stronger than last year and will be
very hard to beat. In the Ryanair, he said that Gwanako will have an
impossible task to beat Voy Por Ustedes. In regards to Big Buck's in the
World Hurdle he said that when he has ran three or more miles he has
only been beaten once and is still improving.

The Gold Cup was a very hot topic and he said that Kauto Star is looking
very fit and fresh. He also went on to say that Denman has improved from
the run at Kempton however it is hard to tell with him until he is on
the race track as he is not a great worker. Neptune Collonges is
improving and will need to post a career best if he is to win. Paul's
value bet of the Festival was The Nightingale in the Ballymore.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

HARRY FINDLEY, still looking forward to the festival, said that there
was a lot less pressure due to Denman. He said that he believes Mad Max
will go close in the Supreme Novices'. In the Arkle he stated he was
very biased towards Tatenen however Calgary Bay is better than people
think and also that Kalahari King has a chance. In the Champion Hurdle
Harry said that he was "getting stuck in" as he believes Binocular is in
a different league. He was also very certain about Diamond Harry in the
Ballymore with him seeing no reason to oppose him.

He believes Carruthers is made for the RSA and should definitely run. As
Paul Nicholls stated he thinks Master Minded is too strong and cannot be
beaten, he should be 1/6 rather than 1/3. In the Ryanair he is not very
keen on Voy Por Ustedes at the short price. Kasbah Bliss is also another
that Harry is very confident on, he says he will not get beat and he is
against Punchestowns. In the Triumph he likes the look of Master Of Arts
and Starluck. In the Gold Cup he says that last year's run left its mark
on Denman and he does not believe he will be the same again, he was also
never going to run in the Grand National. Harry's value bet was Aachen
in the County Hurdle.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

DAVID PIPE is very much looking forward to the Festival as the yard has
hit form at just the right time. In the Supreme Novices' he believes
Torphichen is rock solid and has a very good chance. He said Osana has a
good chance in the Champion hurdle and he will come on for his Sandown
run. In the Champion Chase he believes that Master Minded is better than
putting money in the bank while Well Chief is the only horse that could
possibly give Master Minded a race. He says that Our Vic's run in the
King George can be forgiven and he goes well fresh while Voy Por Ustedes
is the one to beat.

In regards to the Gold Cup he said that Madison Du Berlais but he
deserves to take his chance. David's value bet of the festival was
Consigliere in the Grand Annual on soft or Jewson / Festival Plate
otherwise.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

PHILLIP HOBBS although not having a squad as strong as the other
trainers has a few decent each-way shouts and would settle for a winner.
He believes that Copper Bleu has a good each-way chance in the Supreme
Novices'. He says that he wants good ground for Planet Of Sound in the
Arkle however he may run in the Grand Annual on the Friday. In regards
to the RSA Chase he is not sure he will run Massini's Maguire, he doubts
he would get three miles on soft ground. He thinks that Fair Along is a
credit to himself and has decent each-way claims in the World Hurdle and
good ground would help. His value bet of the Festival was Snap Tie in
the Champion Hurdle.


------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------

Also at the evening was ANDREW KING, he believes Cousin Vinny will take
all the beating in the Supreme Novices'. When asked about the Arkle he
said the Tatenen has done nothing wrong because of Ireland didn't work
out for him. In the Champion Hurdle he does not believe Binocular should
be so short and he has a doubt about him coming up the hill, he has
backed Ashkazar.

He agrees with Harry Findley about Diamond Harry and he is a fan. In
the RSA he said the Gone To Lunch is a real grinder and he will not
finish outside the top three. Just like the rest of the panel he said
that Master Minded is a certainty. He said that his bet of the festival
is Voy Por Ustedes in the Ryanair. In the World Hurdle he states that
Kasbah Bliss is all class and he says that he would be more worried
about the form of the Nicky Henderson yard than Puchestowns. In the Gold
Cup he says that Kauto Star is obvious and Madison Du Berlais should be
bigger as the Kempton form means nothing and if the ground is decent
Albertas Run has good each-way claims. His value bet of the festival was
Bensalem in the Albert Bartlett.


You've been busy man :D
 
Well done I hope you weighed in mate?

Yeah I did man cheers, that will pay for the away trip to Sunderland now.

Barry ran a great race in fairness to him. I was at Leopardstown for his last race when Golden Silver beat him and he went to front too early where this time he paced him well and let him go at the end. He had a bruised foot for that race and had been running great in the yard this week so thankfully he came in.

Tom Cooper is my friends uncle so its great to have a bit of inside info :D
 
I`m a big fan of Nick Williams - I think he is the next big NH trainer. My only return yesterday was a place bet on Maljimar in the 3m handicap and today i`ve gone in on the unbeaten Diamond Harry in the novice hurdle at 9/2.

I fancied Massini`s Maguire in the RSA until the ground softened - just don`t think he`ll get home now.
 
Broke even yesterday.

My bets for today. Last 2 were picked by a pin by my Son so we'll see what works better

13.30 - Coe
14.05 - Mad Max
14.40 - Cooldine
16.00 - Lough Derg
16.40 - Bruslini
 
Master Minded :cool:

What you guys on in the next race?

Was thinking of Psycho to place.
 
Has not run in 2 years - God knows what form its in. Not much mney going on it on BF

Didn't do badly in all honestly. As you've said Baz he wasn't out for a while but he was always a quality horse over these fences in the past. £10 e/w wasn't a bad bet for him :D
 
Thursday


Ryanair Chase

I went in on Voy Por Ustedes ages ago in the at 9/2. The only realistic danger is Tiday Bay who returned to form at this meeting last year and is worth a saver. He`s also a very solid EW bet as this field lacks strength in depth. Of the others towards the front of the market Our Vic is out of form and too old - Imperial Commander is not good enough.

World Hurdle.

Kasbah Bliss is much too short and has to be taken on. Punchestowns I have at 4s and i`ve saved on Big Bucks at 8/1.
 
Thursday


Ryanair Chase

I went in on Voy Por Ustedes ages ago in the at 9/2. The only realistic danger is Tiday Bay who returned to form at this meeting last year and is worth a saver. He`s also a very solid EW bet as this field lacks strength in depth. Of the others towards the front of the market Our Vic is out of form and too old - Imperial Commander is not good enough.

World Hurdle.

Kasbah Bliss is much too short and has to be taken on. Punchestowns I have at 4s and i`ve saved on Big Bucks at 8/1.

Both are very short prices so the only value in these two is a double, not sure how much to put on though.