You don't even need the polls - just look at who wanted more of it. The Harris campaign clearly wanted another, and Trump was smart to not engage in more, because he looked unhinged and incoherent.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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No way. The man is a walking cadaver. He would have never been able to go from state to state, doing 3 rallys a day. He showed what he was in the debate - an old confused man, albeit with a big heart and the right intentions.
The biggest reason Trump will find himself back in office in January sits squarely with Joe Biden, for a host of reasons....
Did nothing to tackle inflation in the places where they are most visible - the supermarket.
His messaging behind his legislative wins were poor to non existent.
Made a mess of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Let Bibi run wild on Gaza.
Let millions of illegal immigrants in after he and Mayorkas rolled back the COVID immigration regulations.
Told us he was a transitional president, yet forgot to mention the plan was to transition back to Trump.
Had Meryk Garland sit on his hands for two years when he should have been prosecuting Trump.
Surrounded himself with people unable to tell him what the country thought of him. He would not believe his approval rating or the polls.
Called Trump supporters garbage a week before election day.
There is literally only you, Joe Biden and Jill Biden that think he would have done better than Harris.
Yeah I can’t say I disagree with you bud
My point was to those calling her a weak candidate. She cleaned his clock in the debate. No right minded person can say otherwise.
Trump did very well to duck further debates, a strategy that benefited him for sure.
It is quite wild to think that Trump advisers believed that the best strategy was for the public to see less of Trump in the campaign. It is exactly why I believe the GOP will lose in 2028 because the nation will be sick and tired of him, and therefore Vance.
The topic about inflation misses the point. Inflation may be down, but the damage has been done by prices rising under the Biden administration. That is what voters understand. Similarly, framing the border issue around crossings over the last few months is disingenuous at best.
I agree that the border part is short sighted but the inflation part — it takes a lot of time and moving parts to completely reverse inflation, the best they could really do was fight to get the rate down to a normal level. And and even then, if you reverse it totally, you have deflation which comes with its own challenges.
But as I’ve also posted a few times now… none of that is sound-bite-able & therefore it gets drowned out by “tariffs on China” and “drill baby drill”
He wasn't in as bad a shape as many made him out to be. Unsurprisingly, after the debate, he magically began speaking semi-normally again. I suspect if he stayed in, Dems would've coalesced around him just as they did in 20, especially given the Scranton Joe blue collar narrative that seems to resonate better with working class voters than Harris' corporate lawyer from the west coast demeanor. It probably wouldn't have been enough to win again, but I doubt he would've been swept in all the swing states as Harris did. She was just the sort of candidate that galvanized people behind Trump.
It's impossible to prove, but I really doubt he would have done better. The Trump campaign would have mercilessly run ads with Biden looking old (there was plenty of material), and it was clearly the public perception of him - even to some extent before the debate. He approval rating was also in the shitter.
Biden, post-debate, would likely have lost worse than Harris, and caused more damage downballot.
Ultimately downballot won't matter that much though, 4 years into the future, republicans can rule through the supreme court alone anyway, if they don't already, so perhaps it would have been best to let Biden take the fall.
Ultimately downballot won't matter that much though, 4 years into the future, republicans can rule through the supreme court alone anyway, if they don't already, so perhaps it would have been best to let Biden take the fall.
The issue is that "Trump is bad" should never even have been necessary to be said. After Jan 6 and his pressuring of election officials , to be able to get the same amount (thereabouts) of votes as '20 is indicative of a deficiency in the electorate itself, rather than his opponent.
Kamala might be a bad candidate and a more charismatic person could've potentially won, however that does not change the fact that more than half the country preferred a faschy-wannaby who has more convictions than former wives, for a bunch of economic promises and hate towards "the other".
It points to a voting base that is ignorant, naive, egotistic and greedy.
Look at the low bar you are setting for him....
So the bar is, "not as bad as many think" and "he was speaking semi-normally again"?
It was suspected by many that he was too old to run, then the whole country saw him die in the debate. It was the single worst performance from any President or political candidate of all time, in any scenario. You could see that even Trump felt sorry for him! There was no going back from that.
Not only was it his age, it is the fact that all the issues were blamed on him - i named just a few in my prior post. At least Harris has one degree of separation from those failures. Fact is, we needed a candidate with no direct ties to the Biden administration to at least portray a message of true change.
The Dem turnout was lacking under Harris. I would have been awful under Biden - 2020 is long gone. The spike in the polls, donations and energy around Harris showed that.
The donations were trying up too. Big donor didn't want to waste their money and regular donors wouldn't have raised $1bil like they did for Harris.
I think @Raoul and Hunter smoking the same drugs! Maybe even working from the same laptop!
To all the posters here talking about someone other than Harris -
Wasn’t there some argument about using the money that was already raised not being transferable to any candidate other than Harris? This was around the time Biden was considering stepping down and it wasn’t an issue once Harris was nominated- so I’m thinking Democrats hands were tied and they were forced to go with Harris and no one else?
Wasn’t there some argument about using the money that was already raised not being transferable to any candidate other than Harris? This was around the time Biden was considering stepping down and it wasn’t an issue once Harris was nominated- so I’m thinking Democrats hands were tied and they were forced to go with Harris and no one else?
It goes to show people can see past all the faults when food prices skyrocket...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-grocery-prices-increased-since-140029491.html
It is what won Trump the election. Im surprised he didn't do more of these press conferences...
This is true. They wouldn't have been able to use that money Biden had raised from small dollar donors. As i remember though, it wasn't all the much in comparison to what Harris raised in the last 100 days.
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@Raoul
another unknown known, to paraphrase rumsfeld
Main points from these ex-Obama insiders: Biden's internal polling, usually favourable to the candidate, showed Trump at 400 EVs (probably Virginia, NH, plus NJ, New Mexico and Maine); 80% of voters thought he was too old **before** the debate, and they mentioned his "garbage" comment that energised Trump's base right at the end.
another unknown known, to paraphrase rumsfeld
Main points from these ex-Obama insiders: Biden's internal polling, usually favourable to the candidate, showed Trump at 400 EVs (probably Virginia, NH, plus NJ, New Mexico and Maine); 80% of voters thought he was too old **before** the debate, and they mentioned his "garbage" comment that energised Trump's base right at the end.
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These dudes were early on the get Biden out bus, and got shit (and shut down from interviews) by the Biden campaign for it. All ex Obama staffers too, so its not like they had an axe to grind with him.
New Jersey is actually a swing state now, dems will have a hard time replacing that, if it goes red in 28.
it's strange that, like 2020, despite a pretty clear popular vote and electoral college loss, she was still within 1-2% each in the 3 blue wall states. because of which, small decisions might have mattered to the outcome.
and, apart from the cheney nonsense, one fundamental thing which i couldn't believe was her keeping on the entire biden campaign team that had been driving that bus happily and determinedly off a cliff.
she kept the headquarters in delaware!!! not a swing state! not her home state! not her work state! insane!!!
Pennsylvania isn't going to be one of these "wall" states for long, by next presidential election, republicans might have caught up in registration already, we will see.
Not that registration is everything, but it was the state out of the 3 she lost by the biggest margin, and somehow Casey even lost.
I think it was a decision of convenience as they already had an operation up and running and she had 100 days. All of things are cascade effects of Biden deciding to run again.
Stating the obvious there. We all know he won the election but you seemed confused on who did better at the debates. He made a good decision not to have another debate because he was drap in the only one.
So he endorsed someone who wasn’t even picked as one of parties’ elected nominees?
I actually think interviews should be tough. But I’ve heard that Rogan’s political leanings over the past few years became well to the right, and my feeling is that a cooperative interview with Trump and a difficult one with Harris would have hurt her campaign too. But yeah, given the result she should have either gone to an equivalent (not sure if there is any) or to him only. Given she didn’t connect with people, more casual podcast interviews could have help break through to people.
One thing that i've always thought about, but really hit me this time, was how many states the democrats have just abandoned over the last 30-40-50 years. When you watched the results come in, Trump just goes straight to 120-170 EV and the dems are on 15. I was sitting there thinking, you offer nothing to these people, they turn up like robots and vote for the same people every 4 years, and then your entire strategy is to hope 7 states of people aren't angry with you on the day. The dems political game is to simply allow the GOP onto their "turf" every 4 years and hope to fight them off. That just seems bonkers to me. Yes, it will take decades to unwind, but the best time to start is now.
You understand they basically lost some of these states, by acknowleding reality, right?
Take WV and Kentucky, what do you want democrats to do, just continue to tell them that climate change wasn't real, and that coal was clean?
Now, i'm going with clear-cut examples here, not every state relied so much on that industry, but just saying.
If people in Kentucky and West Virginia want to vote based on lies, well, then it is what it is.
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I don't believe people are wholly unchangeable or can't be changed over a generation if party politics focuses on it as part of a whole revamping of their politics. I'm not talking about "how to win 2028" here. I think Trump's policies could easily see the dems return in 4 years, unless he's somehow taken the country into the fascist dictatorship he craves.
Are there large pockets of people now that can't be swayed? Yes. But i'm talking about if this is the moment for the "rational" people to fundamentally change politics for the next generation, are we sure it's a good idea to shape and frame that "new" politics around 7 states?
How did the far left alienate a historic number of Jews from the Democratic Party if exit polls reported that 79% of Jews voted for Kamala? This aligns with historical trends, but this AIPAC shill is just working hard to push a false narrative.
This is probably the best explanation of why trump won:
Nancy
She is weak. Maybe not her fault but she was and still weak all things considered.
I get it that the Democrats left it far too late and that's certainly not helping. But she wasnt a good candidate to start with. Being minorities and woman which made it double minority. Again maybe not her fault but you can't claim She's a great candidate.
Many have seen this coming from miles away, some people and especially the caf just dont want to accept the reality. You can't hardly argue with such a landslide defeat even losing the popular vote.
Trump didnt need a 2nd debate because he or his team felt it was enough. Credit to them. Kamala dodged Rogan wasnt she?
If she went even more left she would have lost even more. Dems as a whole need to be honest on what lost them the election instead of factions using the loss to push their agendas. The war in Gaza was a non factor. Americans as a whole just dont care about it.
It was a combination of inflation, working class voters identifying culturally with Trump, misogny and racism. There were no economic policies that have won her the working class vote or made the margins smaller. The only thing that would have helped is running a white dude.
Ultimately the fault lies with Biden. Biden himself had reservations of Kamala being able to beat Trump. But instead of steping aside and allowing a primary. He let his ego get in the way till the last minute. This is up there with Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And now Sotomayor. These old Dem needs to step aside when its convenient for the party to replace them. Now we gotta go and hope for the next 4 years Sotomayor who has health issues, can stay alive. Other wise its a 7-2 majority for the next 40 years. Just selfish. Step aside when you are old.
One thing I found absolutely amazing. The transgender ad Trump ran was super effective against Harris.
What is wrong with this country. Little kids get shot and people dont give a damn. But this bothers them.
Voters man.
I welcome open debate on the transgender topics. I dont think govt should pay it for inmates. But it was like 5 people. And the whole thing is overblown.
But school shootings are a constant problem. Also there are a ton of cases of children shooting other kids people because of improper gun storage. But people dont give a damn. But they hear transgender and they are up in arms.
This is messed up. Protect the kids from the transgenders but not the bullets. Voters man.
What is wrong with this country. Little kids get shot and people dont give a damn. But this bothers them.
Voters man.
I welcome open debate on the transgender topics. I dont think govt should pay it for inmates. But it was like 5 people. And the whole thing is overblown.
But school shootings are a constant problem. Also there are a ton of cases of children shooting other kids people because of improper gun storage. But people dont give a damn. But they hear transgender and they are up in arms.
This is messed up. Protect the kids from the transgenders but not the bullets. Voters man.
I watched the first seconds of the Trump video. He's talking about child abuse, and the mutilation of children, obviously doing the standard routine of caricaturing and lying about trans issues.
Why did that inspire you to talk about you and your kid dressing up?
The one where he was expressing concern about the the cats and dogs of America? Yeah, hard to believe his team thought that went well.
He's a joke and the less his supporters saw how cognitively impaired he is, the better for him. I'm confident that his roaming around the stage playing random songs instead of taking questions at a town hall made it into almost none of the rightwing media spaces.
Not to say that Harris was great or even a good candidate.
She distanced herself from any of the good things Biden did, probably because she actually had nothing to do with them anyway. Then chose to stick to Biden's extreme pro-Israel stance, had shitty messaging beyond abortion and democracy in danger (which was obviously a lie because she's happy to commit to a peaceful transition to this danger).
You just have to look online to see that bigotry, sexism and racism are the in thing now. The same views that people considered abhorrent and worth of ostracising are now mostly accepted and in some cases, heavily promoted.
I’m a firm believer in the leaders / system’s of a country shaping or heavily influencing the core values of its population, as I’ve seen it happen in my country for the worse. Similarly, Trump and the extreme right wing movement has ingrained these things in much of the population. The whole fear of the other thing just works and it’s been proven across the globe. Gun control in US has the biggest obstacle being your weird 2nd amendment which does a lot of harm.
I was trying to say that kids have been like this for years and back then zero people said oh they are a transvestite.
kids were just playing, I feel that when we throw transgender at kids, it raises questions in their minds that really was never a thing back then.
Of course there has always been kids that have felt they are in the wrong body, my niece always thought it, when she was younger - not at 23.
Kids are kids, let them be fecking kids.
People that aren't voting for their own interests are voting for the interests of someone else
