2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

I live in OC. The overall feeling for many Californians is that California is headed in the wrong direction (businesses leaving, expensive housing, crime, homelessness, illegal immigration). Newsom's approval numbers are down as evidenced in a couple polls (UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Public Policy Institute of California)

The OC is definitely very different from LA County in my experience. It has a much more conservative legacy and institutions. To be honest, I try to avoid stopping in the OC. Most of what I hear about homelessness and crime though I hear more directed locally at the Mayor, and especially at the DA (which is why Gascon got trounced). Another thing though is that its not like any Republican ever has a policy answer to things like housing, crime and homelessness.

For 2028, I see it really mattering who is the best orator. De Santis tried to attack Newsom on all those topics you mention and Newsom annihilated De Santis' arguments. Other than Buttigieg, I can't see any other Democrat that capable of presenting a vision and being able to riposte all those standard GOP attack lines. Long way to go of course but Dems are going to need a direction because clearly being all things to all people failed badly. Campaigning with Dick Cheney while saying you'd give gender transition surgery to prisoners is clearly a failing combo. The Dems will need to have compelling reasons to vote for them on border/immigration, economy, and bring in issues like climate change to have a chance in 2028.
 
Wasn't voter turn out higher this time round than 4 years ago? Not saying it wasn't a factor but I don't think people avoided voting in telling numbers, unless there was crazy number of first-time voters out.

No it was lower by a good margin.
 
Wasn't voter turn out higher this time round than 4 years ago? Not saying it wasn't a factor but I don't think people avoided voting in telling numbers, unless there was crazy number of first-time voters out.
It's looking like Trump will get roughly the same amount of votes as in 2020, whereas Harris will get 15 million fewer votes than Biden did.
 
Thanks chaps. You know those moments when your clarity of vision, and passion for a topic coalesce? Well, this election, and this post, was it for me. It’s the nose that’s been sitting on my face the entire time, but I was blinkered by my own intellectual lens. A fate that I feel has befallen most of us on here. Being intelligent, logical, critical thinking, these are the qualities that make discussions with like minded individuals on here rewarding, but they are also the qualities that make us blind to simplistic reality of the arena we are attempting to comment on. The only thing defeating democrats, are democrats, and more specifically their dogmatic adherence to social and political norms. But all identity construction is essentially social in nature. So to successfully construct a “winning” identity, one has to first understand the social construct. And a core, fundamental component of that is the incredibly limited window of engagement available, and the simplicity of the processing capabilities at the other end.

“Grab him by the pussy” might not be a dignified, intelligent, politically correct or relevant campaign mantra, but in the reality of US politics, it would be a winning one. Trump positions himself as an alpha male. Well, stick him next to Dwayne Johnson, calling him a pussy, and his entire schtick is gone. 30 seconds soundbites on “tough on crime” (easy sell with the Rock), “tough on drugs” (easy sell), “self made man, American dream” (easiest sell ever), “Love America, Mr. Patriot” (this is too easy), “America’s the greatest country on earth” (like candy from a baby), “I’ll kick the ass of our enemies” (come on, give me challenge!). Etc etc etc.

Perceptions of strong leadership qualities. Camera friendly. Tough, yet positive and hopeful. Male vote. Black vote. Dem vote. Huge cross party appeal. You can’t question his patriotism, his manliness, you can’t fill a room (literally and figuratively) better than you can with the Rock. And, he does that thing that Americans want an American president to do, he projects strength.

It’s seriously alarming on so many levels that the best candidate, far and away, that I can think of for the Dems is a former WWE star, and current action movie star, who is roided to the tits. But that sentence right there is the entire encapsulation of the American political landscape. The fact people are debating whether it’s Newsome or Shapiro next, just shows how badly they are missing the point of how political engagement is digested by the masses in America today.

At this point the President is just a marketing figurehead to get the political apparatus in place that you want to govern. He’s (because let’s be honest, it’s not going to be a she) the equivalent of a “Huge Savings! 50% off” banner to get people in the store, where once inside, the real business begins. That’s the presidential campaign. “Massive tax cuts - today only”, “Be better off - vote now”, “ROCK the establishment - vote Johnson”, “Can you smell the [tax] cuts I’m cooking?”

There is no policy, there is only marketing. And the marketing is personality. It’s entertainment. Its familiarity. You don’t even need to agree with him to vote for him. And you certainly don’t need to like him, not in the traditional sense. You just need to be entertained or intrigued by him, and above all else, you can’t be bored by him. That’s the Trump secret. And that’s American politics.

I think that's a pretty succinct update to what Lakoff tried to tell the Dems in 2004 before and after Kerry's loss but with less academic language and more a "salt of the earth" framing. I would disagree a little on Newsom because I do think he fits a lot of what you are saying - out of central casting, able to project an image and personality, good at marketing and capable of being a great orator - but maybe he's a little too much a mix of your two types (half Obama and half Hollywood Rock) instead of going all-in on one archetype.
 
Kamala is giving her speech 15 hours late after ghosting her voters last night. Terrible. Looks like she learned from her boss to sleep until 3pm.
 
Big win the US media outlets, the madness will drive record clicks, the owners and stock holders must be giddy with excitement. Normalizing Trump worked.
 
Kamala is giving her speech 15 hours late after ghosting her voters last night. Terrible. Looks like she learned from her boss to sleep until 3pm.
She's been a joke start to finish, hopefully we dont see her again once her VP term is over.
 
The most probable scenario happened.

uwhH0WI_d.webp
 


Nah. Dems bent backwards for white working class voters for nothing. Lets be real these went for Trump because they like his hard core immigration policies. These voters are not coming back. Dems need to build a coalition that doesn't rely on white working class voters. Because culturally those voters are on the right
 
Nah. Dems bent backwards for white working class voters for nothing. Lets be real these went for Trump because they like his hard core immigration policies. These voters are not coming back. Dems need to build a coalition that doesn't rely on white working class voters. Because culturally those voters are on the right

what about latino working class voters?
 
The democrats lost this themselves. The turnout was horrendous. Trump got the same votes as he did before but a lot of democratic voters stayed home.

Maybe the abortion tactic failed a bit for Harris, maybe should've focused more on distancing herself from Biden, but then again, she only had 100 days run a campaign
 
What exactly was that billion spent on? Adverts?

yes, also, a lot of consultancy fees and polling! this was the guy in charge of 250m:
1AMfnwo.png



you can already guess what his advice on every divisive issue is.


added an edit to the original post, btw!
 
she and her team could lose a municipal corporation election with a billion dollars.

did you see these? modi and bal thackeray had better muslim outreach than this.




:lol::lol: never saw this!
I might have a generational dislike of pork products but I'm more angry on her take that cured meat is a spice. Ffs kamala, why do you think the Europeans travelled to India in the first place? For cured meat?
 
I get anger because he won but people being surprised is strange to me.
We are all adults here. Economy and financial situation is and always will be priority for voters in every country.
Those who live well, they will choose based on opinion about other things (women rights, human rights, religion, personal preferences, immigration etc....) BUT if you struggle to pay bills during one administration, you vote for change. It is pretty simple.

Harris had campaign where she barely addressed economy.
 
I get anger because he won but people being surprised is strange to me.
We are all adults here. Economy and financial situation is and always will be priority for voters in every country.
Those who live well, they will choose based on opinion about other things (women rights, human rights, religion, personal preferences, immigration etc....) BUT if you struggle to pay bills during one administration, you vote for change. It is pretty simple.

Harris had campaign where she barely addressed economy.
That fine if the other side actually had any policy to run on. Did he have any solutions to fix this issue of inflation which is actually getting better over the past 12 months?
 
That fine if the other side actually had any policy to run on. Did he have any solutions to fix this issue of inflation which is actually getting better over the past 12 months?
Her loss kind of fits in the wider trend of post-pandemic incumbent parties being voted out.
 
1884, 1888, 1892 was the last time it happened. Also the last time you had a President win two non-consecutive terms
The environment, from a historical perspective, seems strikingly similar to the antebellum years, Tyler-Polk-Taylor-Pierce-Buchanan-Lincoln, parties running 'celebrities' (war hero). MAGA is Know-Nothings on steroid and you have a progressive/radical faction grudgingly support a big tent institutional party (Whigs/Dems)
 
Apparently the Latinos are afraid that all the new immigrants will come for their jobs.
Wouldn't surprise me.

I remember reading something similar re Brexit, that second/third generation migrants were almost as conservative about immigration/border control as Daily Mail readers. The rationale being that the social/racist backlash spilled over to them.
 
That fine if the other side actually had any policy to run on
When ETH was getting shit results week after week, some wanted him changed now, even if it meant interim or whatever.

But others wanted someone better to be identified before firing him. They kept asking "who is available who is better" before agreeing that ETH should be fired.

Different approaches.
 
That fine if the other side actually had any policy to run on. Did he have any solutions to fix this issue of inflation which is actually getting better over the past 12 months?
He said he will fix it. :lol:

But nevermind that. My point was that average voter thinks; "I was not happy with my financial situation under blue side. Lets see what will red side do".