2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

I’m pondering whether this was the plan all along. It seems too organised.

Essentially dupe Trump and co into thinking they’re running against Biden and then have him drop out and the Republicans being caught with their pants down.
In a way it's the best outcome, and as I think I mentioned months ago, most major organisations have plans b and c war-roomed as hypotheticals, so there may have been a rough idea floating out there. Plus with Biden being ancient, Harris' advisors must similarly have had a drop out plan too.
 
At this point I'm not sure if people are just trolling or if they actually miss the point.

These protesters don't want trump to be president. They want the current administration to stop supporting genocide.

Her answer was terrible. Basically she's telling people to suck it up and accept genocide because trump. As if stop supporting the murder of tens of thousands of civilians is some insane demand.
The answer was not great but she doesn't have much room to maneuver. Biden is still the president and she's his employee.
 
Maybe let the campaign release the platform before attacking the policies you're imagining?

Well, she is the current VP, so there is not that much imagination to be made. Sure she might deviate a bit, but so far, doesn't seem promising and on the same line as democrats since 2016 "I do not have much to offer besides I am not as shitty as Trump" and if Harris wins, same story in 2028

And she will propose her platform and policies and when she will be criticize for some of them being obviously shitty, she will say: " but look at Trump!"
 
At this point I'm not sure if people are just trolling or if they actually miss the point.

These protesters don't want trump to be president. They want the current administration to stop supporting genocide.

Her answer was terrible. Basically she's telling people to suck it up and accept genocide because trump. As if stop supporting the murder of tens of thousands of civilians is some insane demand.
What would have been a good answer from her in your view? Because she has multiple things she needs to juggle right now - it's not all about appeasing the left wing of the party, but also about appearing firm and keeping the good momentum going.

Supposedly it was around a handful of people. Bowing down to them at a rally would also not have been a good look.
 
What would have been a good answer from her in your view? Because she has multiple things she needs to juggle right now - it's not all about appeasing the left wing of the party, but also about appearing firm and keeping the good momentum going.

Supposedly it was around a handful of people. Bowing down to them at a rally would also not have been a good look.

You can address these things without 'bowing down', Biden did multiple times:

US president Joe Biden was interrupted by "ceasefire" protest chants while speaking at a historic South Carolina church. Addressing the chants, Biden said he understood protesters' passion and that he has been "quietly working" with Israel to "get out of Gaza".

In a video shared on X (formerly Twitter), a protestor can be heard yelling, "You're a dictator, Genocide Joe." "Tens of thousands of Palestinians are dead. Children are dying." [...] Meanwhile, the pro-Biden crowd started chanting, "Four more years! Four more years!" Responding to this, the President praised the protest for his passion. “Look, I don't resent his passion. There's a lot of Palestinians who are being unfairly victimised,” Biden said, according to Fox News.
 
Well, she is the current VP, so there is not that much imagination to be made. Sure she might deviate a bit, but so far, doesn't seem promising and on the same line as democrats since 2016 "I do not have much to offer besides I am not as shitty as Trump" and if Harris wins, same story in 2028

And she will propose her platform and policies and when she will be criticize for some of them being obviously shitty, she will say: " but look at Trump!"
VPs famously don't share major positions with Presidents, and agree to serve anyway.

You're clearly judging her policies before seeing them.
 
So another candidate that is not based how great can be as POTUS but on fear of how shitty the other candidate is. Just put a lettuce and say "vote the lettuce or Trump is coming". She can basically play the Trump card (no pun intended) everytime that she doesn't have arguments on her shitty proposed policies.

I don't know if policy disagreements are all that significant when there is a fundemental disagreement about the validity of democracy as a system of government.

The current Republican party is pushing an authoritarian political movement that rejects the principles of of liberal and neoliberal democracy that the US has been based on. The core issue that splits the two parties today is not policy, it is the political system itself.

Unfortunately that argument is too complicated for the electorate, most of which have no idea what a liberal democracy is, which results in a belief that this is about policy (back Ukraine vs not, tax vs no tax, progressive vs Conservative, abortion access vs ban, hawk vs diplomacy etc). Biden tried to make that point, but it just didn't stick and he just came across as a worried old man.

A lot of the "noise" around the election is concentrated around policy and value disagreements that are completely fair in a democratic system - but the most important difference is the fundemantal disagreement in how to run government, elections, presidential power, the international system and the role of the various branches of government.

In the US you have three main forces, two of which are driven by voters who haven't been helped by the neoliberal democracy model and one that fights for the status quo.

Two of them are in the Democratic party - progressive who want a return to classic liberal democracy and neoliberals or "moderates" who want to maintain the status quo with the belief that neoliberalism has secured US position as an undisputed hegemon. Within those two groups there are policy differences that put them left and right of centre - but there are almost no one arguing against the system. Within the Republican party the neoliberals have more or less been pushed aside by the authoritarian MAGA movement.

While the neoliberals and liberals all agree on principles about how the system is supposed to work - MAGA authoritarianism rejects those principles. As an ideology it is incompatible with liberal and neoliberal democracy. Therefore any disagreement on policy becomes essentially meaningless.

For instance; liberals and neoliberals argue about how much influence a president should have, MAGA pushes for unitarian monarchy. Liberals and Neoliberals disagree on specifics on abortion legislation, MAGA rejects the legislative branch. We see liberals and neoliberals disagree on who should vote and the structure of the electoral college, while MAGA rejects the very concept of elections.

How do you have policy discussions when faced with that?
 
The answer was not great but she doesn't have much room to maneuver. Biden is still the president and she's his employee.
Turns out she'd met with a group of people of Palestinian heritage whose families have suffered loss prior to the speech. She should have mentioned something about that I think.
 
Seems like Walz' military record is an attack point for Republicans, accusing him of stealing valor.
 
It's what they always do. Kerry was a genuine military hero, if you're into that sort if thing, and they did it with him too.
I do remember reading about the Swift Vets campaign against Kerry. How did Kerry counter it?
 
It's what they always do. Kerry was a genuine military hero, if you're into that sort if thing, and they did it with him too.
And even to their own like John McCain. Trump: "He's a military hero, because he was captured. I like people that weren't captured".

That's not a lie, of course, just ridiculously disrespectful.
 
I do remember reading about the Swift Vets campaign against Kerry. How did Kerry counter it?
More notably, the human scum, sorry political advisor that led that campaign against Kerry is the same person running Trump's campaign.

The Kerry stuff was later proved to all be made up, btw, not that history remembers.
 
Yeah, I can understand the reticence and there's plenty of time but at some point she's going to have to take the plunge. As much as Trump self immolated at the Black Journalist's Panel at least the guy is putting himself out there. Even if she just starts with softball interviews I feel like she should do something to hone her message in more intimate environments. It can't all be stump speeches to crowds. Perhaps she's trying to hold out till the convention.
I don't get this line of thinking at all.
That Trump appearance at the black journalists event was diabolical.
There was absolutely zero upside to it and he looked appalling.
 
What would have been a good answer from her in your view? Because she has multiple things she needs to juggle right now - it's not all about appeasing the left wing of the party, but also about appearing firm and keeping the good momentum going.

Supposedly it was around a handful of people. Bowing down to them at a rally would also not have been a good look.
You can be firm without being a condescending prick.
 
I don't get this line of thinking at all.
That Trump appearance at the black journalists event was diabolical.
There was absolutely zero upside to it and he looked appalling.

It was. I'm not sure his awful performance will ultimately be what matters though. I think, going forward, the right's narrative will be that Trump is willing to put his ass on the line in hostile environments whereas Harris avoids even softball interactions. That criticism is only going to grow in strength while Trump's woeful performance wanes into the ether.
 
I don't get this line of thinking at all.
That Trump appearance at the black journalists event was diabolical.
There was absolutely zero upside to it and he looked appalling.
Prince Andrew didn't do great in that interview, but at least he put himself out there.
 
She's definitely holding out because she doesn't perform particularly well in one on one interviews, especially with Trump's people looking to exploit anything she says. This is the last prominent interview she gave the night Biden flopped against Trump in their debate. Instead of doing a normal, dignified interview, she wound up getting into an argument with Anderson Cooper.



Another reason she hasn't done interviews is she probably hasn't developed her own policies yet. In 2020, she tried to siphon off Bernie voters by saying she was pro-medicare for all, until she gradually walked it back into medicare for some and the rest could keep their private insurance. Oddly enough, she hasn't been asked any questions about this because she has been dodging interviews.


I give her a bit of leeway on the Anderson interview because she's been put in the really quite terrible position of having to defend Biden's indefensible performance on the fly. She's also still got a bit of time to roll out some policy proposals. Post-convention, though, she's gotta be fielding questions and doing intimate back and forths - otherwise she's just going to let her enemies define her policies for her.
 
So another candidate that is not based how great can be as POTUS but on fear of how shitty the other candidate is. Just put a lettuce and say "vote the lettuce or Trump is coming". She can basically play the Trump card (no pun intended) everytime that she doesn't have arguments on her shitty proposed policies.
Expound a bit on the last line of your post.
 
It was. I'm not sure his awful performance will ultimately be what matters though. I think, going forward, the right's narrative will be that Trump is willing to put his ass on the line in hostile environments whereas Harris avoids even softball interactions. That criticism is only going to grow in strength while Trump's woeful performance wanes into the ether.
Agree with this. Basically, the Dems strategy is again 'but Trump is bad' rather than this is what we offer, and similarly to Biden, protect Kamala at all costs to not do anything except reading from a teleprompter. It might work out in the end, because Trump is such a shit candidate, but it is extremely underwhelming.
 
I am not the biggest fan of Harris. Indeed, I would’ve picked someone else to lead us in November. See my previous posts.

However:
1. She is the nominee
2. She’s not perfect, but I really think that she looks better than in 2020
3. She had to put together a campaign and pick a running mate in a very short period of time (2 weeks), including all the vetting process. That’s difficult. There was no time for interviews and deep discussions about policies
4. The trips to the Midwest right after the Walz pick are right. Ride the momentum wave, introduce yourself and your runner mate to more people, especially in that part of the country.
5. Interviews and so on will happen, particularly after the convention. We stil have 90 days for that.
6. Regarding the answer on Gaza: I still believe that it was good given the circumstances (but, as I said last night, she could’ve shown more empathy). Not a perfect answer, to the extent there is one, but definitely not bad either.
7. We did hear some talk about policies, including when she introduced Walz.
8. Yes, “Trump is bad” is important too, and must be said. It’s not the entire campaign, but it’s part of it. We will hear more about it, and we SHOULD.
9. The threat to democracy scores well with many Americans as an important issue. For me, it’s by far the issue Number 1. I’m an economist, but I don’t vote on the economy, but democracy. Trump frightens me and many like me, and so his name should be mentioned.
10. We have some good momentum, it seems, and so let’s not rush to judge her and bring her down when she just started running for the job. Let’s not hurt ourselves. We did that in 2016, and we saw what happened.
 


538 gives it a 3 star rating (top), Nate Silver rates it as A/B. Not sure where the A+ is coming from and I'm unfamiliar with the source. It is a true result though.

Edit: This is likely voters. It is Harris 52-48 among all registered voters. Previous iteration had Biden/Trump at 50:50 among registered voters, with Trump leading 51:49 among likely voters.
 
Last edited:
It was. I'm not sure his awful performance will ultimately be what matters though. I think, going forward, the right's narrative will be that Trump is willing to put his ass on the line in hostile environments whereas Harris avoids even softball interactions. That criticism is only going to grow in strength while Trump's woeful performance wanes into the ether.
He doesn't need his MAGA folks to win though. If he's playing to them, he will lose.

They were literally roaring laughing at him at this event. The videos won't just disappear.
 
I don't know if policy disagreements are all that significant when there is a fundemental disagreement about the validity of democracy as a system of government.

The current Republican party is pushing an authoritarian political movement that rejects the principles of of liberal and neoliberal democracy that the US has been based on. The core issue that splits the two parties today is not policy, it is the political system itself.

Unfortunately that argument is too complicated for the electorate, most of which have no idea what a liberal democracy is, which results in a belief that this is about policy (back Ukraine vs not, tax vs no tax, progressive vs Conservative, abortion access vs ban, hawk vs diplomacy etc). Biden tried to make that point, but it just didn't stick and he just came across as a worried old man.

A lot of the "noise" around the election is concentrated around policy and value disagreements that are completely fair in a democratic system - but the most important difference is the fundemantal disagreement in how to run government, elections, presidential power, the international system and the role of the various branches of government.

In the US you have three main forces, two of which are driven by voters who haven't been helped by the neoliberal democracy model and one that fights for the status quo.

Two of them are in the Democratic party - progressive who want a return to classic liberal democracy and neoliberals or "moderates" who want to maintain the status quo with the belief that neoliberalism has secured US position as an undisputed hegemon. Within those two groups there are policy differences that put them left and right of centre - but there are almost no one arguing against the system. Within the Republican party the neoliberals have more or less been pushed aside by the authoritarian MAGA movement.

While the neoliberals and liberals all agree on principles about how the system is supposed to work - MAGA authoritarianism rejects those principles. As an ideology it is incompatible with liberal and neoliberal democracy. Therefore any disagreement on policy becomes essentially meaningless.

For instance; liberals and neoliberals argue about how much influence a president should have, MAGA pushes for unitarian monarchy. Liberals and Neoliberals disagree on specifics on abortion legislation, MAGA rejects the legislative branch. We see liberals and neoliberals disagree on who should vote and the structure of the electoral college, while MAGA rejects the very concept of elections.

How do you have policy discussions when faced with that?
Good summary.
 
He doesn't need his MAGA folks to win though. If he's playing to them, he will lose.

They were literally roaring laughing at him at this event. The videos won't just disappear.

The videos won't disappear, neither will the assassination attempt on Trump. Equally they won't gain in power either - they become footnotes. What matters is narrative. Harris has managed to grasp the initiative and so far is doing a good job of running with it. This can only last so long though; at some point not doing interviews adds traction to the story Republicans want to tell - and I don't think this particular story only plays to Trump's base.
 
More cross party support for Walz. This time published on Fox News:

I Served with Tim Walz as a Republican in The House. He'll be a good Vice President
Before becoming governor of Minnesota, as a congressman, Tim championed issues that resonate with a broad spectrum of Americans. While serving in Congress, I observed Tim’s leadership of the House Veterans Affairs Committee where he advocated for veterans' rights, pushed for educational reforms, and addressed health care disparities.

Refreshingly, and sadly increasingly uncommon in D.C. today, Tim did not advocate issues to improve his partisan political standing or increase his social media presence. Instead, Tim demonstrated a simple commitment to policies that would improve people’s lives regardless of any political advantage...

...America has more than enough showboat politicians who talk with bluster, self-aggrandizement and a toxic partisan tongue over endless social media posts. Instead, America needs a gracious and kind individual who talks as a friendly neighbor, understands your community like a local high school football coach, knows the commitment of military service as a veteran and advocates policies for all Americans -- not just for Republicans or Democrats.

This is exactly my friend Tim Walz.

Edit: To be fair, on further investigation this guy was a Republican House Representative from Hawaii, left the party in 2019 and endorsed Biden in 2020.
 
People are oversaturated with bla bla. Kamala doesn't need to do anything as long as she is in the news all the time anyway. If Trump manages to dominate the narrative, which he hasn't so far, she will need to do interviews etc.

Otherwise it's a smart move to limit her exposure right now. She isn't super charismatic, if she tried to be in the media Trump style people would tire of her before November.
 
"Intersectionally oppressed, woke crap". Finkelstein sounding like Trump here. Much of this could easily be a Trump rant at one of his rallies.

 
Seems like Walz' military record is an attack point for Republicans, accusing him of stealing valor.

They are trying to swiftboat him. Won't work given that he was in the military for six times as long as Vance and Trump famously got a deferment for bone spurs (no doubt from a highly credible doctor who wasn't paid off or anything).
 
They are trying to swiftboat him. Won't work given that he was in the military for six times as long as Vance and Trump famously got a deferment for bone spurs (no doubt from a highly credible doctor who wasn't paid off or anything).
If J.D. Vance had actually seen action it might be a little more effective, but of course he was in a Public Affairs section.
 
If J.D. Vance had actually seen action it might be a little more effective, but of course he was in a Public Affairs section.

That's not a slight on Vance since a vast majority of people in combat zones are actually there in support roles from logistics, to IT, to housing, maintenance, contracting, medical etc, and don't actually do any fighting. What he's doing to Walz however is reprehensible given that the latter was in the military for 24 years to Vance's 4, and Walz's battalion actually did deploy to Europe (Italy iirc) in the early days of the Afghanistan war.
 
Apparently Trump has announced a press conference later today. Probably just some bullshit about the debate or his policies, but I give it a 3% chance that he has ditched JD.