What would it take for United to lose supporters en masse?

[ManchesterManchester]

Lets pick a time period, fairly recent, and look at that. Between 2009 & 2016 Liverpool's league finishes were 7th, 6th, 8th, 7th. 2nd, 6th, 8th. No trophies in that period. In fact, they've only won 1 domestic trophy in the last decade. 4 in the last 20 years (2 were league cups). I wouldn't class this as being very competitive at all. A huge underachievement if anything. It didn't stop them from having a huge worldwide following though, and it won't stop United either.

They challenged for the league title to the last day of the season and should have won it and won the champs league in that 8 year period you highlighted. We haven’t challenged for the league for 9 years and counting and certainly not the champs league.

We will loose our global following of this continues, no doubt about it. As you say clubs can live without trophies but It’s just unsustainable to not even challenge.

You also need to factor in the differences when comparing things. We will even loose local support as kids will naturally support Man City who win things than Man Utd. Liverpool never had to compete with Everton in that regard.

Rival clubs are also competing for new fans through social media now. This generation of teenagers are totally different, they are impatient and success is really important to them. Times change and just because something worked in the past it doesn’t mean it will today.

 

[youngrell]

I know people are gonna jump on this, but let's have some reality check.

1. Manchester United fanbase is estimated at over a billion (https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...s/manchester-united-fans-news-latest-16771943)
2. Size of regularly match-going crowd is at its absolute best 100K, and size of fans in the immediate geographic region is less than a million at most.

So, with all due respect to local supporters, local supporters only make 1/10th of the percentage of United supporter base. Let that sink in - one tenth of percentage! Be dismissive and call names all you want but also realize what actual numbers are.

The reason I am saying it is: the whole notion that not much will change because the United-fan fathers (always fathers?!) taking their kids to matches will raise their kids to also be United fans, no matter what and somehow kids will just blindly do what their parent says... Really?

First of all, there is absolutely no chance that 1 in 8 people in the world support United. Zero, zilch, nada. Followers does not equate to fans.

Secondly, I don't think you understood what I said in the first place. I made no mention of local supporters and I did not dismiss any type of fan. Neither did I provide the notion in your final paragraph.

Supporting the same team as your family is very common, particularly in the UK. However, as mentioned in my OP, we are already starting to see young people supporting Chelsea (the generation after mine) and now City. And that's with United's glory being in the not-so-distant past. If United continue as we are for another decade or two, a lot of new, potential fans will be lost, along with older fans becoming disillusioned.

And it's that lack of success that I believe will be the only thing to cause United to lose a large amount of fans. Nothing else.

 

[NewGlory]

First of all, there is absolutely no chance that 1 in 8 people in the world support United. Zero, zilch, nada. Followers does not equate to fans.

Secondly, I don't think you understood what I said in the first place. I made no mention of local supporters and I did not dismiss any type of fan. Neither did I provide the notion in your final paragraph.

Supporting the same team as your family is very common, particularly in the UK. However, as mentioned in my OP, we are already starting to see young people supporting Chelsea (the generation after mine) and now City. And that's with United's glory being in the not-so-distant past. If United continue as we are for another decade or two, a lot of new, potential fans will be lost, along with older fans becoming disillusioned.

And it's that lack of success that I believe will be the only thing to cause United to lose a large amount of fans. Nothing else.

Yeah, sorry - i wasn't necessarily disagreeing with you. Just highlighted the "families, tradition" part in your response and also responding to sentiments from other posters.

 

[ManchesterManchester]

First of all, there is absolutely no chance that 1 in 8 people in the world support United. Zero, zilch, nada. Followers does not equate to fans.

Secondly, I don't think you understood what I said in the first place. I made no mention of local supporters and I did not dismiss any type of fan. Neither did I provide the notion in your final paragraph.

Supporting the same team as your family is very common, particularly in the UK. However, as mentioned in my OP, we are already starting to see young people supporting Chelsea (the generation after mine) and now City. And that's with United's glory being in the not-so-distant past. If United continue as we are for another decade or two, a lot of new, potential fans will be lost, along with older fans becoming disillusioned.

And it's that lack of success that I believe will be the only thing to cause United to lose a large amount of fans. Nothing else.

With no disrespect to any posters, I think a lot of older fans who lived through all the glory days just can’t comprehend that kids nowadays do not care that Utd used to win back in their parents days. Especially foreign supporters who don’t even have any connection with Man Utd. I think the worst thing is that our local rivals are the best team in the world with the best manager in the world and will not be going away anytime soon.

 

[Chesterlestreet]

It's got bugger all to do with this mythical 'top reds' crap that people spout.

Like I've said before, we now have a segment of fans who seem positively hostile to any or all of the following concepts:

Homegrown players? Feck 'em - they're suspect by default, probably overrated.

Match going fans? Feck 'em - they're delusional, supporting any idiot who happens to be manager uncritically.

History? Feck it - means nothing, just sentimental bollocks.

I find it both "interesting" (from a certain point of view) and...very sad, really.

And - to be clear - this is not about being critical. It's about the tone, the manner in which the criticism is expressed.

 

[ManchesterManchester]

Like I've said before, we now have a segment of fans who seem positively hostile to any or all of the following concepts:

Homegrown players? Feck 'em - they're suspect by default, probably overrated.

Match going fans? Feck 'em - they're delusional, supporting any idiot who happens to be manager uncritically.

History? Feck it - means nothing, just sentimental bollocks.

I find it both "interesting" (from a certain point of view) and...very sad, really.

And - to be clear - this is not about being critical. It's about the tone, the manner in which the criticism is expressed.

The fans you are describing are the new generation of fans. Most likely they are under the age of 25 or less and have hardly any memory of us actually winning things. As they haven’t experienced winning things with us, they are not as loyal or patient towards things. For example, their experience of homegrown players is Jesse Lingard not Paul Scholes. In fact, there is probably a lot of anger that they have invested their time in the brand which is promoted by the Glazers as being about winning but we never win anything.

As you say it is very sad but it is also the reality. These younger fans don’t care about the history of the club and don’t want to be patronised by the clubs social media about what was won before they were born. They care only about the present time. There is no doubt that our fan base will shrink massively over the next decade. We are already slowly sliding down the top earners charts.

 

[Acheron]

The team is already losing relevance internationally, United gets dumped in the early stages of the UCL, have embarrassing performances against weaker teams and haven't been in a title challenge for quite a while in their league. Currently the expectations are pretty low and no one expects much from the team.

They still have plenty of fans of supporters so it will take a quite a while if they keep the mediocrity consistent, which seems unlikely for a team with their resources, sooner or later they'll get things right. So it would take something massive, like been relegated and suddenly losing all their resources and even then it will take several years for them to lose most of their supporters.

 

[Bestofthebest]

I have not supported United in any financial way since the Glazers arrived. That means I have not bought any merchandise nor attended any matches since that time. I still support them with all my heart but cannot wait for the day these leaches quit our club, even if this means we have to drop to the lower leagues to make them leave.

 

[UnitedSofa]

I have not supported United in any financial way since the Glazers arrived. That means I have not bought any merchandise nor attended any matches since that time. I still support them with all my heart but cannot wait for the day these leaches quit our club, even if this means we have to drop to the lower leagues to make them leave.

Cutting your nose off to spite your face there?

Glazers aren't going anywhere so why not attend a match and enjoy the game?

 

[Scaring Europe to Death]

As a City fan at the derby this season, the first thing I noticed was the ageing demographic, when compared with the hundreds of youngsters and screaming kids at the ETIHAD.
There is definitely a trend, and the people who sneer at the EMPTYHAD were also the ones who sneered at City's long term plan in 2008. Make no mistake, complacency will only accelerate the problem.

 

[mckenzie79]

As a City fan at the derby this season, the first thing I noticed was the ageing demographic, when compared with the hundreds of youngsters and screaming kids at the ETIHAD.
There is definitely a trend, and the people who sneer at the EMPTYHAD were also the ones who sneered at City's long term plan in 2008. Make no mistake, complacency will only accelerate the problem.

That's the primary school kids taking advantage of the 100's of free tickets given out to every home game. I could go and buy a ticket now for any city home game I want, its called emptyhad for a reason pal, complacency will only accelerate the delusion.

 

[Mr. MUJAC]

oh bollocks ... its also a fine line between the fair weather fans leaving and a major shift in support and attitudes amongst the football public, which would have a long term impact on the club and leave it further behind the top European clubs. We can also do with losing the high horse brigade. If you dont know who that it its you.

High horse? No...maybe just old and grumpy!

 

[el3mel]

It was only for a season right? Besides, they steamrolled their way back to Serie A if i recall correctly. It’s not enough time and the performances were not bad enough to lose their fans en mass.

It's not that they get relegated. It's that they get relegated due to match fixing scandal. If you stick by your club after such corruption issues, then you'll never abandon it due to shit results here and there.

So the answer to the question for me is that it will never happen. United will never lose a large amount of supporters in masses. Just few here and there who only supported the club because they saw it win or because of being fans to a player or a manager, but the main fan base won't change.

 

[VidaRed]

When all the existing one die off and aren't replaced man to man. It'll take a few decades of total irrelevance though.

 

[alexthelion]

Exactly this! The best football feeling ever for me was when we won our first Premier league after 26 years or so of not doing so. I suffered for about 12 of those years and that rise back to the top was beautiful.

The following 20 years of course were a dream, but if we get back to the top in 2, 3 or 10 years that feeling from 1993 will return.

This.

Nowadays, "supporters" seem much more like glory hunters and have so little patience.

 

[Ghostrider318]

Well we have had a decade of little to no success and yet have a massive global audience. However globally, I feel anyone getting into football would much rather support Liverpool, City or PSG over United. Ive felt a lot of new ( read young ) supporters seem to be more of 'player fans' instead of club fans. I know so many who started watching football because of ronaldo in Madrid and switched allegiances to Juve and now apparently are united fans. Seen the same with Messi and now most of them are PSG fans.

 

[Denis79]

Exactly this! The best football feeling ever for me was when we won our first Premier league after 26 years or so of not doing so. I suffered for about 12 of those years and that rise back to the top was beautiful.

The following 20 years of course were a dream, but if we get back to the top in 2, 3 or 10 years that feeling from 1993 will return.

I was only 14 years old then but yes 1993 was absolutely amazing. My father took me to my first game that very season, something I'll never forget.

 

[RedDevil@84]

Well we have had a decade of little to no success and yet have a massive global audience. However globally, I feel anyone getting into football would much rather support Liverpool, City or PSG over United. Ive felt a lot of new ( read young ) supporters seem to be more of 'player fans' instead of club fans. I know so many who started watching football because of ronaldo in Madrid and switched allegiances to Juve and now apparently are united fans. Seen the same with Messi and now most of them are PSG fans.

I can understand becoming a club fan because of a player. Loads of fans outside England come like that. But then they stick with the club even when player goes away.

 

[Bestofthebest]

Cutting your nose off to spite your face there?

Glazers aren't going anywhere so why not attend a match and enjoy the game?

My nose, my face. Hope you enjoy paying out good money to line the pockets of these leaches.

 

[NewGlory]

I have not supported United in any financial way since the Glazers arrived. That means I have not bought any merchandise nor attended any matches since that time. I still support them with all my heart but cannot wait for the day these leaches quit our club, even if this means we have to drop to the lower leagues to make them leave.

I would never wish my club to lose a single game or drop to a lower league.

But if there had to be dark times, I must admit I would rather us be in the lower league, fighting return to EPL and have owners who love this club as much as we do than be in top 6 and be owned by Glazers, who I am certain couldn't care less about United beyond how much money they make off of it. I believe we can overcome obstacles, but I don't know how you overcome owners who don't give a crap.

 

[copen1945]

I don't speak for anyone else but myself, and if a certain player puts on the Red shirt again, I am done.

 

[Tom Van Persie]

It’s not the sentiment I have issue with. It’s the childlike uneducated way people express themselves by literally spamming the forum with pointless comments like I just mentioned.

And calling somebody a "top red" because apparently being a supporter of the club is something to be ashamed of nowadays.

 

[Wolf1992]

Fans of winning, not fans of United.

That describes at least 50% of the fans big clubs have outside of their country.

Support for a club is generally passed through family, so many foreign supporters are bandwagoners, and many of them will change club eventually, as they aren't related to England.

 

[Tom Van Persie]

As a City fan at the derby this season, the first thing I noticed was the ageing demographic, when compared with the hundreds of youngsters and screaming kids at the ETIHAD.
There is definitely a trend, and the people who sneer at the EMPTYHAD were also the ones who sneered at City's long term plan in 2008. Make no mistake, complacency will only accelerate the problem.

Hundreds

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Hundreds

I'll guess they were screaming because they didn't want to be there?

 

[cyril C]

Pool were mostly irrelevant for a couple of decades but still retained their global appeal. We'll be fine, just need to hope that we stumble upon a winning formula somehow.

I recall Blackpool was a big club half a century ago, Leeds was also a big club, as well as Newcastle, West Ham, Sheffield(s). I won't say they have lost all their supporters, but perhaps all their overseas supporters except for a few die-hard locals.

 

[tenpoless]

I dont mind the club not winning anyhing for an extended period of time as long as there is still an entertainment and sense of belonging in it. Forum like RedCafe is very helpful in that aspect. But I will however lose more interest if the club is involved in more scandals, and I can see most fans stop paying attention to the club if it reaches the point of little value of entertainment but so many scandals, like Blizzard did. I hate those. I dont watch football for dramas. The latest Greenwood incident is one of the examples of those. Its just very annoying and add nothing to us as supporters.

 

[Tap]

It's not that they get relegated. It's that they get relegated due to match fixing scandal. If you stick by your club after such corruption issues, then you'll never abandon it due to shit results here and there.

So the answer to the question for me is that it will never happen. United will never lose a large amount of supporters in masses. Just few here and there who only supported the club because they saw it win or because of being fans to a player or a manager, but the main fan base won't change.

Yep agreed. Mass “defections” wouldn’t happen.

What’s more likely to happen as we bumble along while waiting for a Klopp or Fergie is the gradual decrease in the number of new fans as the younger ones start to support the more competitive and successful clubs.

The visible effects of this will be Visible only years later though and it’s assuming that the club remains Uncompetitive and poorly run.

 

[NewGlory]

I'll guess they were screaming because they didn't want to be there?

Naptime collided with matchtime and formula went sour without proper refrigiration. Poor kids were sleepy and hungry

 

[downunder red]

It's all downhill while those leeching parasitic Glazers are here.

 

[Sky1981]

We could lose 20% of our fanbase - the ones that piss and moan & never go to games or contribute anything financially other than being a statistic - and any pain that might bestow on the club would be acceptable. It isn't their twitter 'likes' that are keeping us relevant.

Sanctimonious.

Your gate receipt alone isnt enough to even cover player wages

 

[NewGlory]

It's not that they get relegated. It's that they get relegated due to match fixing scandal. If you stick by your club after such corruption issues, then you'll never abandon it due to shit results here and there.

So the answer to the question for me is that it will never happen. United will never lose a large amount of supporters in masses. Just few here and there who only supported the club because they saw it win or because of being fans to a player or a manager, but the main fan base won't change.

What is this martyrdom-oriented persona of a United supporter? Where did it come from? Have Glazers taken so much of our self-respect that now we measure the level of "who is a real fan" by how much shit we are willing to take? And why should United take shit? When did we become Everton, to be content with being middle of the table or lower?

I am a United fan, I am not ashamed of wanting my team, hell - expecting my team to be the best of the best and I refuse to suddenly be ok with anything less just because we were purchased by some soulless feckers who do not care about us winning.

It pains me immensely that I watch top teams play, then I watch us play and honestly it feels like a different game. FECK THAT!

Yeah, I am not going to jump ship, at least until I get so depressed that I decide this team has nothing left in common with the United we've loved (at which point I may give up on football, altogether) but - I am also not ok to see us lowering our standards just because Glazers have. This current situation is not normal, let's at least not normalize it.

 

[bringbackbebe]

When did we become Everton, to be content with being middle of the table or lower?

When we brought in David Moyes and all his staff and decided to go the Everton way. There is an old Babylonian saying "success breeds success, David Moyes breeds Everton type of ambition".

 

[Kumar Abhishek]

Ever since the commercialization of football in the early 90s, has the exodus of supporters en masse happened for any club in the world? Leeds for instance had to undergo successive relegations and administrative mismanagement to a great degree for them to lose a bit of cachet. And even for them, just appointing an admired coach and enjoying a mini-resurgence has been enough for a lot of that cachet to return.

The interesting thing for me is not the losing of supporters but how easy it is for supporters to come back once a fallen giant starts showing signs of resurgence. That kind of story is usually irresistible for new fans looking for a team to support. So even if we spend some time in the wilderness, our first major trophy will surely wipe out a majority of losses quickly.

I think a lot of people are just responding to our current malaise with a sense of fatalism but I believe that fatalism is misplaced. We are shit right now but all it takes is one strong charge to a major trophy for things to completely turn around. Whether that happens in the next 5, 10 or 15 years remains to be seen. Personally, I am willing to wait till my last day.

 

[Sky1981]

You lot are talking romantically, while the truth is just statistic.

Winning the CL will net you X numbers of following that year, a % of that X will become lifelong supporter
Winning the League will net you X Numbers of new followers, a % of that X will become a lifelong supporter, a % of that will follow you for 2-3 years and swap if you can't keep success

Anything else is just a standard deviation but the terms remains the same, at one point it'll reduce global fans, and if you win more you'll increase it.

There's no way we end up with 8 billion supporter, just like there's no way we ended up with no supporters even if we crash and burn, but off course logically we'd lose alot every year we don't win.

 

[Bilbo]

What is this martyrdom-oriented persona of a United supporter? Where did it come from? Have Glazers taken so much of our self-respect that now we measure the level of "who is a real fan" by how much shit we are willing to take? And why should United take shit? When did we become Everton, to be content with being middle of the table or lower?

I am a United fan, I am not ashamed of wanting my team, hell - expecting my team to be the best of the best and I refuse to suddenly be ok with anything less just because we were purchased by some soulless feckers who do not care about us winning.

It pains me immensely that I watch top teams play, then I watch us play and honestly it feels like a different game. FECK THAT!

Yeah, I am not going to jump ship, at least until I get so depressed that I decide this team has nothing left in common with the United we've loved (at which point I may give up on football, altogether) but - I am also not ok to see us lowering our standards just because Glazers have. This current situation is not normal, let's at least not normalize it.

There's nothing wrong with wanting United to be the best. Every supporter of any team goes into a season hoping that it all clicks. It's how you handle things when it doesn't that define you as a football fan.

The bolded part is the key point. What would 'nothing left in common' actually mean? Is it just down to how good the team is? We still play in a red shirt at Old Trafford. We still have United legends in the stands and around the stadium on match days. The history of this club is there for everyone to see. We might not like a player here or there, and the team might not be playing the greatest football at the moment, but not for one moment has it ever not felt like United, at least for me anyway.

 

[bringbackbebe]

You lot are talking romantically, while the truth is just statistic.

Winning the CL will net you X numbers of following that year, a % of that X will become lifelong supporter
Winning the League will net you X Numbers of new followers, a % of that X will become a lifelong supporter, a % of that will follow you for 2-3 years and swap if you can't keep success

Anything else is just a standard deviation but the terms remains the same, at one point it'll reduce global fans, and if you win more you'll increase it.

There's no way we end up with 8 billion supporter, just like there's no way we ended up with no supporters even if we crash and burn, but off course logically we'd lose alot every year we don't win.

I love the Markov chain transition theory and its all interesting...but this sort of thinking is what got us into trouble in the first place. We shouldn't be going behind supporters and we definitely shouldn't be going behind finances. They are both merely by-products. We should be going behind an approach to play hyper entertaining football, making sure our players reach the best potential they can with a certain bit of desire and drive, rather than just accumulating a bunch of mercenaries. This is what Cryuff thought us, this is why Maradona is universally rated higher than Pele and this is why City and PSG have nowhere the global appeal and still have to pay fans to buy their shirts inspite of being dominant forces over the last decade. We should really get back to the basics and I think with RR, that is exactly what we are doing.

 

[Sky1981]

I love the Markov chain transition theory and its all interesting...but this sort of thinking is what got us into trouble in the first place. We shouldn't be going behind supporters and we definitely shouldn't be going behind finances. They are both merely by-products. We should be going behind an approach to play hyper entertaining football, making sure our players reach the best potential they can with a certain bit of desire and drive, rather than just accumulating a bunch of mercenaries. This is what Cryuff thought us, this is why Maradona is universally rated higher than Pele and this is why City and PSG have nowhere the global appeal and still have to pay fans to buy their shirts inspite of being dominant forces over the last decade. We should really get back to the basics and I think with RR, that is exactly what we are doing.

I see the glazer and our football as two different approach, if this is an ancient empire one is fighting on domestic court (finance) and the others is fighting on barbaric land (football)

Glazers's acumen on the finance department shouldn't be blamed as our malady, infact we should hope that they remain strong so that they can finance the military while we're learning our lesson. Those two can go hand in hand, and infact most empires would need a strong finance to ensure longevity. Great managers (Ranieri) might win you an odd PL here and there but over the course of decades the financial strength would averaged out better.

 

[manc exile]

St James Park has been full almost every week for 60 years and Newcastle have won nowt.

no it has not

in the last 60 years the average attendance has ranged from 21,000 to 52,000
in that time the capacity has fluctuated but has never fallen below 30,000

It would be fair to say that the stadium has been sold well since the premier league era.
However the average was only 22,000 in the season they were promoted which rose the 34,000 the first season the premier league
There have also been some notable drop off in attendances as things have gone badly on the pitch, in the relegation season of 08/09 average attendance was 47,000. The next year in a promotion season from the championship it was down to 43,000 and the first season back in the prem it was 48,000.

 

[ManchesterManchester]

I see the glazer and our football as two different approach, if this is an ancient empire one is fighting on domestic court (finance) and the others is fighting on barbaric land (football)

Glazers's acumen on the finance department shouldn't be blamed as our malady, infact we should hope that they remain strong so that they can finance the military while we're learning our lesson. Those two can go hand in hand, and infact most empires would need a strong finance to ensure longevity. Great managers (Ranieri) might win you an odd PL here and there but over the course of decades the financial strength would averaged out better.

Not sure what your referring to here? In what way have the Glazers been strong at finance for Man Utd. Do you realise we have slid down position in the top earners since they have been here? If you mean they are good at leveraged buyouts and filtering money out from the business through going to market and selling shares. Then yes they are good at manipulating finance mechanisms for their own personal wealth. How does that translate to a strong position for Man Utd as a business?

We still have enormous debt, fragile sponsership and broadcast deals that rely on top 4 qualification which we at risk of not meeting again. When you add in the stadium requiring long over due work/replacement which can’t be put off much longer. All income is generated through the brand and only cares about profit in the immediate short term. I don’t see any resilience in their business model if the brand took a negative hit or a we had to take an unexpected financial impact.