Problem isn't no trophies in four years, the problem is one Tier 1 trophy in a decade.
For me, club trophies are broken into four categories:
Tier 1
PL and CL
Tier 2
Europa and FA Cup
Tier 3
League cup + Conference Cup (from this year)
Tier 4
Super Cup, Club World Cup and Community Shield
Since 2012, which is now 10 seasons, Utd have:
1 PL, 1 FA Cup, 1 Europa, 1 League Cup
The problem here is that the drop from Tier 1 to Tier 2 is massive and much more than the drop from Tier 2 to Tier 4. Tier 1 is all the big players are interested in and what will sway them. I recognise that the FA Cup and Europa used to be a lot bigger but these days, they are typically used for development or second string players until the QF or SF and even then the better development/second string players will continue to play in the SF/Final.
This for me is a big issue owing to the nature of football. A decade is a seriously long time as whole cohorts of footballers have gone through their development knowing Utd only as a team that win top trophies very irregularly. I mean those boys that were between 7-13 at the start of 2011-12 will not really have seen Utd win a top trophy during their most impressionable years.
I hope it is ok to do what I just done - to quote something on one thread, on a different thread, but its just this above, from Dave Smith is one of the most interesting things I have read here recently (its from the no trophy in 4 years thread), but I think it applies to this discussion too.
I think Man Utd. are in a serious situation - as the years roll by from the last Premier title, the last good CL run, the more and more difficult it becomes to repeat it. Look at Liverpool as a prime example, they nearly won it in 2014, but the pressure after a 24 year gap was so intense, they just couldn't quite do it. In fact it took another six more years. Heck, if one goes back in time Man Utd. themselves had a similar situation: 1967-1993 a 26 year gap and I think there are 2 reasons these things happen:
As I have said, as the time between titles grows bigger, the desperation to win, the pressure to win, becomes immense - this can lead to errors in decision making, switching from manager to manager in search of the solution & buying short-term 'galacticos' instead of developing youth team players.
The other problem is, once the duration becomes - well a bit as it is now - none of the current outfield players have prior experience of winning the league with Utd. so its all 'new', again adding more pressure, so if they did manage to mount a title challenge into April/May 2022 it would take an extraordinary effort not just physically, but mentally, to get over the line first.
Anyway my prediction is this: one late transfer e.g. Ronaldo 8th or 7th. Several decent transfers including a new keeper
and a manager willing to at least try and beat his main rivals: 1st or 2nd.
Oh and if you only buy Harry Kane, you'll finish below Leeds.