U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread

Obama or McCain/Democrat or Republican..you decide

  • McCain

    Votes: 14 7.5%

  • Obama

    Votes: 173 92.5%
  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .
Obama set for clear Maine victory

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is projected to win the Democratic caucus in Maine, defeating Hillary Clinton.

The Maine contest tops a weekend of gains by Mr Obama in the battle for the party's presidential nomination.

On Saturday, Mr Obama won in polls Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state and the US Virgin Islands.

The clean sweep of all five weekend contests puts him almost neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton in their deadlocked nomination battle.

Meanwhile, Mrs Clinton has appointed a new campaign manager after this weekend's setbacks.

Maggie Williams, who was the New York senator's chief of staff when her husband was serving as US president, will take over from Patty Doyle, who has decided to step down.

Campaign aides said Ms Doyle's decision was not urged upon her by Mrs Clinton or any senior members of her team, the Associated Press reports.

Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton now head into a series of contests on Tuesday: Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7238153.stm
 
Instant Karma said:
Hillary is ahead if you count the super delegates. Obama was marginally ahead based on pledged delegates after Super Tuesday. He's moved even farther ahead now.

She's holding the lead in Texas because of the large Latin American voter base. Them and women voters are her biggest strengths.

The superdelegates initially pledged their support to Hillary because she was the establishment figure and no one really gave Obama much of a chance. But if its neck and neck, they might start changing their allegiance too. Obama is getting a lot of democrats excited and voter turnout at most places has more than doubled. If the superdelegates and party figures have any sense, they'd realize that he is their best bet against McCain.

The organization he has setup at the grass roots level have been the reason why he does better at caucuses. If the campaign alone is anything to go by, he has been able to appeal to all demographics, out fought and out organized the Clinton political machinery without taking money from lobbyists whereas Hillary had already overspent her budget.
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That's all very well, but General Elections tend to be won in the big states and she still performs better than him in the big ones.

Also, I think we probably haven't heard the end of the Florida episode yet.
 
Cal? said:
That's all very well, but General Elections tend to be won in the big states and she still performs better than him in the big ones.

Also, I think we probably haven't heard the end of the Florida episode yet.
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Ahhh Florida, always knows how to feck up an election.
 
On another note, has anyone noticed how The Guardian has been consistently pro-Obama and anti-Hillary over the last few weeks? It's getting even more biased now.
 
Cal? said:
That's all very well, but General Elections tend to be won in the big states and she still performs better than him in the big ones.

Also, I think we probably haven't heard the end of the Florida episode yet.
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That's actually not true about the big states. The big states are predominately democrat states in the general election. New York and California are always considered lost by Republicans. The battle ground states are always places like Ohio, Michigan and a couple others that are close.
 
Cali Red said:
That's actually not true about the big states. The big states are predominately democrat states in the general election. New York and California are always considered lost by Republicans. The battle ground states are always places like Ohio, Michigan and a couple others that are close.
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flo-rida
 
Cali Red said:
That's actually not true about the big states. The big states are predominately democrat states in the general election. New York and California are always considered lost by Republicans. The battle ground states are always places like Ohio, Michigan and a couple others that are close.
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I was thinking about Florida mainly, not sure how well it'll go down with the old grannies there with Obama ignoring them.
 
I may have to eat my words about Hillary winning it this year. Looks like Obama is unstoppable at this stage.
 
I think she will still win. Obama has been expected to edge ahead this week anyway. How must the non-minority candidates feel?

Out of luck perhaps?
 
went to the Polls last night. I was the last one allowed in the door. fcukin traffic was a nightmare due to icy roads.
The place was packed and the polling station workers were saying it was busy all day long. Haven't checked the numbers but it certainly sounded like a high turnout in Virginia.

Obama won fairly easily here which surprised some per the radio this morning as VA is considered a southern state.
At this rate he has some serious momentum and tbh looks hard to beat. Hillary's campaign manager and now the deputy mgr have left (or were fired?).
 
Raoul said:
I may have to eat my words about Hillary winning it this year. Looks like Obama is unstoppable at this stage.
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We'll see - it's still very close, but it looks like the showdown will be in Texas. With the monumental feck-up that Waco was in Texas, I can't imagine the Clintons are the most favored politicians of that region.

I voted for Obama, yesterday.


The news keeps saying that the Super Delegates (Presently seated Democrats of each state) could decide the nomination in backroom deals. That would be extreemly fecked-up if we have another President take office without the full support of the voter's choice. After two very questionable presidential elections, America is looking less and less about democracy.
 
What concerns me is that McCain is quite electable for a Repub despite Bush's 8 years of feck-ups, and the projections don't put him many points behind Obama. If McCain, a warrior and national security figure, runs against Obama, the liberal anti-war kid, and somehow a threat to US national security or an upsurge in the 'war on terror' takes place, then independents, Ihni binni dimi diniwiny anitaime, old people and moms will all go to McCain and swing it his way.

Hillary, on the other hand, has better national security credentials and would ride out such a situation.

I wonder if the Repubs have considered this scenario and are reading their books about generating fear among the people at the right time!
 
That's pretty good thinking Grinner. I can imagine that scenario all too easily as well.
 
Heard part of Hillary's speech from last night on the radio a minute ago.

I've got to say, the bit at the end, the "I'm tested, i'm ready, let's make it happen", had shades of Delia about it.

May as well have gone something like this:

"A message for the best electorate in the world: we need a 12th man here. Where are you? Where are you? Let's be having you! Come on!!"

She's betting the farm on March 4th, and unfortunately for heri think she is going to get caught out by this wave of support and hope spreading across the US for Obama.

I heard somebody compare the Obama of now to Blair in the build up to his election in 97, what do you make of that?
 
Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states.

But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.
 
Grinner said:
Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states.

But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.
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Hillary is not getting the votes...end off mate....

no point blaming the media...she is out there...go get the message out...'why people should vote for you'

the key is that Obama is getting into Clinton's favoured demographics...white women and blue collar...although she still has the majority of the Latino votes...he is slowly eating into that too...

she now needs to win Big in Ohio and Texas....by at least 25 points....will be difficult...

but I would never discount the Clintons....

interesting campaign for all the Political junkies....
 
Grinner said:
Obama is currently getting a free ride from the media. They are all starry-eyed with him. Hillary gets pounded and it translates into lost states.

But, she now has time to get that well-oiled machine in gear for TX and OH. I don't think they'll get nasty with Obama, but a new approach will surely occur. Latinos will be important in TX and it's not yet clear who gets them.
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I do agree with with to some degree about the media giving Obama a pass(although I don't really think it plays much a role in Hilary losing states), I think they will become a lot more critical of him once he is nominated. I think he will win the Democratic nomination, but I could see him faltering in the general election due to a lack of experience. I wonder who his running mate will be certainly has to go with a white male as his VP if he wants to win the election, that may sound a bit racist but it is true.
 
Frosty said:
I think Hillary needs 56% of the remaining delegates to win, which means if Obama loses narrowly in Texas and Ohio, he is still in pole position.
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..she is still not counted out in spite of all the 'experts' spouting whatever...

...but she is running out of states....and dont forget even if she wins Ohio and Texas...Obama can still win states like WI and NC and some other smaller ones....so that eats into her 'leads'..she is leading in OH by 17 points in the latest polls...but that is 3 weeks away...time for him to make inroads...especially with the expected WI win...he is leading there...

finally the Superdelegates that she has had pledged....may become unpledged if Obama still leads come April....probably when this will all be over...
 
Alex said:
I do agree with with to some degree about the media giving Obama a pass(although I don't really think it plays much a role in Hilary losing states), I think they will become a lot more critical of him once he is nominated. I think he will win the Democratic nomination, but I could see him faltering in the general election due to a lack of experience. I wonder who his running mate will be certainly has to go with a white male as his VP if he wants to win the election, that may sound a bit racist but it is true.
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white VP? this whole election process has turned that theory on its head...

IF Obama is the Dems candidate, I think it will be Richardson as VP...and not for the obvious Latino vote but for that experience factor in which Obama is weak....

as for the Gen Election...look at the Democrat and Republican votes ...almost 2 to 1 advantage...and McCain is hardly the darling of the Religious right...

this year it is rightly or wrongly about enthusian and anger....there is a knee jerk reaction against what Bush has and still is doing....

it will be Democrat President...probably...I better say that.....
but as I have said before McCain is a decent enough guy..so no complains if he does win it either...
 
I cant stand McCain. He's been on the Albanian payroll and actively supported the Albanian case whenever he had a chance to. Apart from that I'm sick of the Republicans in general.

I didn't mind Obama until I saw that video "yes we can" on his website. It's sickening. I decided I hate politics at all.
 
Red Dreams said:
as for the Gen Election...look at the Democrat and Republican votes ...almost 2 to 1 advantage...and McCain is hardly the darling of the Religious right...

this year it is rightly or wrongly about enthusian and anger....there is a knee jerk reaction against what Bush has and still is doing....

it will be Democrat President...probably...I better say that.....
but as I have said before McCain is a decent enough guy..so no complains if he does win it either...
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I wouldn't just add up the votes for Democrat and Republicans in the presidential primary and assume that the Demos are favored. At the precinct for which I was the inspector a lot of Republican women "changed party affiliation" for the primary just to vote for Hillary. If she doesn't get the nod, they won't be staying with the Democrats to support Obama.
Similarly, we had an assortment of African-American voters show up who normally didn't participate in the primary process. Again, if Barack isn't on the ticket, don't bet too much that they will be rushing to the polls to elect Hillary (I've heard from a few black voters that if Obama doesn't get the nomination, they'll be voting for McCain in the general).
On the GOP side, the issue is whether the right-wing religious zealots can read the spray-paint on the wall in November and vote for McCain (and a GOP administration) as a better alternative than the Democrats. Given their history of being more interested in doctrinal purity than political compromise and accomodation, I suspect McCain has a lot of work to do to bring that wing of the party back into the fold.
 
To be honest, the black vote is miniscule compared to the fem vote. It's only really important in the South, where they will generally go Dem no matter whom the nominee is.

I think women are starting to think it's about time a woman had a go at running things. When the choice is the same old white dude that's been running for every past election, and Hillary, I think they'll choose her in a heartbeat.
 
FresnoBob said:
I wouldn't just add up the votes for Democrat and Republicans in the presidential primary and assume that the Demos are favored. At the precinct for which I was the inspector a lot of Republican women "changed party affiliation" for the primary just to vote for Hillary. If she doesn't get the nod, they won't be staying with the Democrats to support Obama.
Similarly, we had an assortment of African-American voters show up who normally didn't participate in the primary process. Again, if Barack isn't on the ticket, don't bet too much that they will be rushing to the polls to elect Hillary (I've heard from a few black voters that if Obama doesn't get the nomination, they'll be voting for McCain in the general).
On the GOP side, the issue is whether the right-wing religious zealots can read the spray-paint on the wall in November and vote for McCain (and a GOP administration) as a better alternative than the Democrats. Given their history of being more interested in doctrinal purity than political compromise and accomodation, I suspect McCain has a lot of work to do to bring that wing of the party back into the fold.
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....I have heard the comment re: Hillary ...this was from some party official from Texas who said pretty much people may vote for Obama but not Hillary.. but MCCain if Hillary is the nominee...I agree about the black voters Re: Hillary...especially after BJ Bill's SC fiasco....

all in all will be interesting...and I am not buying into The Obama is inevitable notion either...she is well ahaed in OH and PA...havent seen Texas polls though...
 
Red Dreams said:
....I have heard the comment re: Hillary ...this was from some party official from Texas who said pretty much people may vote for Obama but not Hillary.. but MCCain if Hillary is the nominee...I agree about the black voters Re: Hillary...especially after BJ Bill's SC fiasco....

all in all will be interesting...and I am not buying into The Obama is inevitable notion either...she is well ahaed in OH and PA...havent seen Texas polls though...
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She won the latino vote in CA, if she does the same in TX then it looks good for her.
 
crappycraperson said:
I mentioned it because others were saying Blacks would rather vote for Mccain than her.
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I'm sure some will vote for both if they both run, historically(last 40 years) the Democratic Party has had huge support from the African-AMerican community that said the gap has been greatly closed in recent elections
 
Has Obama said anything about the university shooting? Of course he won't want to be seen to be politicising the issue. Though it is his state, so he's bound to say something or be asked about it by the media you'd think.

Speaking of our Barack, i foudn this and thoought it might interest to those following the thrad. :: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Barack_Obama

Granted it is Wiki, so a cautionary note as to all of its accuracy.
 
i read many of your posts with interest. As a member of the edwards campaign (what there was of it) in Florida I got to see Obama and Clinton up close and personal. Whilst i voted for edwards in our primary if we get the chance to do it again I will most likely vote for obama. Yes Hill has more experience and the clinton brand name but if the world wants real change it wont get it with her.

If you doubt me check her voting record in the senate.
 
Obama won Wisconsin

9 in a row, baby. :smirk:

Hillary now needs landslides in Ohio and Texas.

obamanatorgw2.gif
 
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