U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread

Obama or McCain/Democrat or Republican..you decide

  • McCain

    Votes: 14 7.5%
  • Obama

    Votes: 173 92.5%

  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .
brilliant Cal....and the democrats will just happily nominate the old hag after she has driven out half the party....
You go on and on about how Clinton will drive out all the African American voters yet conveniently fail to mention the effect an Obama nomination will have on the Latino voters... :rolleyes:

sticking my neck out here....there wont be a revote for MI and FL....not that it would make a huge difference in terms of pledged delegates...Clinton wants the supers connected to Flordia...now they cant vote...the DNC will seat the delegates After the nomination has been ironed out. Remember the DNC made the rule...they cant go back and break it...just cause Clinton is trailing...
and they wont lose the votes.....there was no hue and cry when they moved the dates and the voters in Fl which everyone is talking about voted mainly on property taxes. Voters will vote in the General election on issues...

Also the main thing to look out for is what key leaders in the Democratic party are saying...Richardson and Pelosi and it said even Gore are leaning Obama...these people wont allow a bloodbath at the convention...which would just give the election away...

what will happen is they will allow the primaries to finish and quickly pull the delegates together to force the 'loser' to accept the verdict.

these superdelegates are politicians who would want a candidate that will help Them...Clinton will solidify the Republicans....why do you think every Republican pundit and politician is sideing with Clinton...the FL governor being among them....they know Clinton would be a Dream candidate for the GOP to run against.

Everybody knew from day one that Clinton will solidiy the Republicans, nobody deemed it a problem at all a few months ago, yet it appears that is all the Obama campaign wants to talk about nowadays... :wenger:

As for Michigan and Florida, they will just have to give Hillary the delegates if they don't come up with something quickly... :smirk:
 
You go on and on about how Clinton will drive out all the African American voters yet conveniently fail to mention the effect an Obama nomination will have on the Latino voters... :rolleyes:



Everybody knew from day one that Clinton will solidiy the Republicans, nobody deemed it a problem at all a few months ago, yet it appears that is all the Obama campaign wants to talk about nowadays... :wenger:

As for Michigan and Florida, they will just have to give Hillary the delegates if they don't come up with something quickly... :smirk:

Latino voters....they are voting for Hillary rather than against Obama because she is more 'known' among them....just like older women she has her base...that issue would be easily solved by a Richardson VP on the Obama ticket (my guess of course)...referring to Latino votes not older women :)

Clinton solidifying the GOP is more the Democratic party fear...which they are right to...when the campaign started Hillary was the 'best' option they had...in spite of her negatives...until the Obama phenom....(btw Obama has more stressed that he is a unifiyer...rather than say the obvious which the whole world knows...that Hillary is divisive figure...which she is!)

better read up a bit more about the rules of the DNC than making stupid hopeful statements....they wont Have to give her the delegates :smirk:

fyi...the DNC made the decision to punish MI and FL for bringing forward the primaries and taking away the delegates... Hillary signed a pledge with Obama agreeing to this...but when she realised what a stupid campaign she had run...she is trying Anything to get those Superdelegates back...
she aint gonna get them :smirk:

they will seat those delegates..after the nomination has been decided....but Obama correctly is in no hurry to have a revote :D
 
For Ferrarro to do this is much worse than Power's action.

Firstly, Power was an unpaid advisor. Ferrarro is a major wheel in Clinton's campaign. She is also an old-school Democratic power broker who has a huge public profile, perhaps mostly as the VP candidate on the ticket that suffered the worst defeat in US presidential election history.

Instead of apologising when the media quoted her, she immediately jumped out and threatened the Obama campaign that they had better stop these baseless attacks on her because she was a big time fundraiser. Where these baseless attacks from Obama were coming from, I'm not sure (Obama refused to comment on it initially). Even the media hadn't even ramped it up yet as the night-time pundit shows and the morning editorials hadn't gotten a hold of it and it was still a pure 'news' story.

It is like she made the comment and then followed a set script to make herself the victim of her own attack. That's a classic Clinton tactic, she just did it about 24-48 hours too early. She's now claiming she's only being picked on because she's a woman.

Of course there isn't a racist bone in Geraldine Ferrarro's body.



Once again, not a single racist bone in her body.

These people need out of politics now before they get the chance to destroy yet another decade with hate and power-hungry Nixonian madness.

:lol: :lol:

class jason
 
I still find the whole US electoral system bizarre. It seems to be so unlike anywhere else. The Aussie one is odd with preferential voting (if the one you vote for is last your votes go to the person you put second on the ballot until someone has more than 50%) but far less so.
 
Latino voters....they are voting for Hillary rather than against Obama because she is more 'known' among them....just like older women she has her base...that issue would be easily solved by a Richardson VP on the Obama ticket (my guess of course)...referring to Latino votes not older women :)

Clinton solidifying the GOP is more the Democratic party fear...which they are right to...when the campaign started Hillary was the 'best' option they had...in spite of her negatives...until the Obama phenom....(btw Obama has more stressed that he is a unifiyer...rather than say the obvious which the whole world knows...that Hillary is divisive figure...which she is!)

better read up a bit more about the rules of the DNC than making stupid hopeful statements....they wont Have to give her the delegates :smirk:

fyi...the DNC made the decision to punish MI and FL for bringing forward the primaries and taking away the delegates... Hillary signed a pledge with Obama agreeing to this...but when she realised what a stupid campaign she had run...she is trying Anything to get those Superdelegates back...
she aint gonna get them :smirk:

they will seat those delegates..after the nomination has been decided....but Obama correctly is in no hurry to have a revote :D

Right, nobody is against Obama, everybody loves him... :rolleyes:

You might as well produce a show called Everybody loves Barack...

When African Americans vote for Obama, they are anti-Hillary, when Latinos and older women vote for Hillary, they have nothing against Obama and will happily vote for him come November.

Now you're suggesting the superdelegates should vote in line with the pledged delegates (excluding MI & FL) so that Obama wins the nominations, and then they should seat those same delegates (who were previous excluded and have their views ignored by superdelegates) at the convention so as not to piss people off in 2 of the bigger states?

Excellent plan... you should consider a career as a spokesman for the Chinese communist party...
 
I still find the whole US electoral system bizarre. It seems to be so unlike anywhere else. The Aussie one is odd with preferential voting (if the one you vote for is last your votes go to the person you put second on the ballot until someone has more than 50%) but far less so.

As you know, it is designed so that the people of each state get a say in the election.

For those who have no clue what the feck exactly is going on...

It is designed to keep the most populous states from dominating the electoral process. Of course that means giving small states a disproportionate say, but hey-ho, there you go.

The parties used to choose their nominees in private meetings (the so-called smoke filled rooms of US political lore), but eventually democratised and created the same style system as the federal general election (down to 'delegates' replacing the electoral college) to give people more say in their parties. Caucuses are just mini-primaries, except that they are more like town hall meetings where everyone gets a say. Normally only hard-cores show up for those where a lot show up for primaries.

Each state gets to choose its own rules for deciding how those delegates are apportioned. With more than 50 jurisdictions each making various political concessions as well as compromises of all sorts over the decades, there are some enormously complex systems - Texas screams out with both a primary that awards delegates by Congressional district, plus a caucus, plus more delegates arranged by the winner of the popular vote of the state over all!

It used to be that every state everywhere in both parties awarded delegates via winner-take-all based on the popular vote of the state overall (like electoral votes are). After the disaster that was the Democratic campaign of George McGovern in 1972 (anyone who can not manage to beat Richard Nixon qualifies as a "disaster"), the old-school Dems tricked the newer ones into splitting things up proportionally in every state, but left it for the states to decide how.

The only rule was that the party could set a date which is the earliest that a primary can be held. This is designed to spread things out and preserve some old-time Presidential politics traditions, like Iowa being the first caucus and New Hampshire being the first primary. Florida and Michigan violated the Dem's rule, and being an utter Genius, Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean (yes, that Howard Dean from 2004) decided to strip them of all of their delegates. That meant their primaries didn't count. All the campaigns signed pledges to that effect, promised not to campaign in either state, and they even agreed to remove their names from the ballot in Michigan (they couldn't do so under Florida election law once they were on there).

Of course Hillary Clinton broke both of those rules, and now wants her "win" in Florida to count, and to get the delegates out of Michigan because it was Obama's choice to withdrawn from Michigan, even though she also promised to do so and claimed a "beaurocratic snafu" had kept her from doing it. There now seems to be a real movement towards some sort of do-over, and if so there will be a real problem waiting when Hillary does something else crooked, probably involving doing what she did in New Hampshire and busing fake voters into Michigan while compromising ballot integrity in Florida's mail-in private primary.

But that's all an aside to why one race is over and they other isn't.

The proportional representation system meant that the big states had even less of a say in the nomination, and was originally a firewall against California/New York radicals and gave the more conservative smaller states in the midwest and south even more control than under the winner-take-all delegate system.

This system was designed by conservative Dems to keep the 1960s types from winning the nomination, but things have changed. Now the conservative Democrats in those small states have long-since either switched over to being Republicans or have taken a dirt nap (some would argue that's the same thing).

Those Democrats in the small states with the hugely disproportionate representation are now much more liberal, fairly affluent, and highly educated. The working class tend to be Republican in those areas. Clinton's major support base is amongst poor whites, poorly educated whites, and women over 40. Clinton is seen as an old-school politician and Obama as the new liberal. The Clinton crowd are now the conservatives, but due to those huge demographics shifts the more conservative 1960s generation have been fecked again, this time via the system that was supposed to feck up the liberals!

Republicans followed suit with proportional representation in some jurisdictions, in others they did not. As I said above with the Texas example, some states have staggeringly complicated methods seemingly designed specifically to give state legislators and mathematicians a bit more employment.

The Republican nomination is sewn up because of not having proportional representation in most states. If the Democrats worked on a winner-take-all system, Hillary would have become their nominee on Super Tuesday back 6 weeks ago and America would be damned to another decade of utter hell. Proportional Representation has meant that even if Hillary wins a state 60-40 she might only take an advantage of 2 or 3 delegates out of 4000-something because of the methods of splitting them up. He's won so many more states than her that he has amassed a 5% or so lead in elected delegates.

But there's a nasty and dirty little secret in the Democratic nomination process.

In 1982 the Democrats were faced with an all-mighty conundrum. They are the party who fights for minorities (largely by doing feck all and then lying about it), but they don't sit at the same table as them. Along comes a hugely popular long-term civil rights activist (and Grade A twat, but that's irrelevant here) named Jesse Jackson.

He's (whisper it) black.

That didn't sit too well with many Democrats (and doesn't sit well with a lot of the current crop of party leaders today who have a painfully pathetic form of condescending bigotry towards minorities). To give you a bit of an idea as to why Jackson was so unpalatable back then, the then Democratic leader in the Senate was a former Grand Dragon of the Klu Klux Klan. He's still in the Senate and is venerated by Democrats.

Of course they're the party of non-bigotry (in spite of opposing the Civil Rights Acts in the 1960s) because they say they are. But a N****r as their nominee? As if.

So they designed a new firewall, this time (they say) designed let party elders make sure that the party nominates someone who will have a better chance to win, or as a safety against buyer's remorse from voters, or in order to decide a race in which there are more than 2 candidates, so no one has a pure majority. Now they even claim that it was because not enough party regulars were let in the hall at the 1980 Democratic Convention. :wenger:

These new delegates vote just like an elected delegate, and represent nearly half of all the Democratic delegates who choose the nominee. They're called Super Delegates. The key here is that they don't at all have to vote for the candidate of their state. They can vote for whoever they want and have total freedom in their decision.

These wise sages of the party who should be trusted over the will of the people include former president Bill Clinton (an admitted perjurer), Governor Elliot Spitzer (who resigned today because he has been involved in a prostitution ring), Congressman Barney Frank (whose boyfriend ran a brothel out of his basement for a couple of years before getting caught) and a slew more of those whose judgement is clearly superior to the actual democratic will of the people of the Democratic Party.

There hasn't been a close race since 1984, so they haven't been a big deal. Over time it has become a bit of a joke, and they've been handed out like candy. But that doesn't change the fact that they were designed by the party of the people to keep the (black) people down.

Whether the party bosses (now just as corrupt as the ones they fought against in 1968 and 1972) will play 'slap the negro' this time remains to be seen. But Clinton, their campaign aide with his "could have sold cocaine" comment, the "Hussein" thing they started, Governor Rendell of Philadelphia, the "turban" photo, and forner VP candidate Ferrarro are certainly making it pretty clear that the candidate of choice for the ignorant poor old cross-burning crowd is Hillary Clinton.

Robert Byrd is smiling from his hospital bed at the idea of getting a chance to thwart his party's nomination of some uppity n****r for President. He didn't do all of that sheet wearing just to see them take control of the place.
 
Right, nobody is against Obama, everybody loves him... :rolleyes:

You might as well produce a show called Everybody loves Barack...

When African Americans vote for Obama, they are anti-Hillary, when Latinos and older women vote for Hillary, they have nothing against Obama and will happily vote for him come November.

Now you're suggesting the superdelegates should vote in line with the pledged delegates (excluding MI & FL) so that Obama wins the nominations, and then they should seat those same delegates (who were previous excluded and have their views ignored by superdelegates) at the convention so as not to piss people off in 2 of the bigger states?

Excellent plan... you should consider a career as a spokesman for the Chinese communist party...


What the feck is this all about?

La Raza ("The Race", a leading hispanic group in the USA) is long known for its questionable attitude towards blacks, and there are buckets of animosity between hispanics and blacks. You're either kidding yourself or staggeringly thick to not realise this.

Those who are black and are voting for Obama just might (perhaps) be doing it not because he is black, but because he isn't a nasty bigoted psychotic feck.

Clinton started playing the bigotry game before a state with a real black population had even voted. Do you think Obama got victories in Iowa, Wisconsin and Idaho via the massive black populations there?

The raw numbers bear out the fact that the Clintons have been waging a campaign of racial division in an attempt to polarise the people of the party and either arrange a backroom deal or get racist whites/hispanics in a tizzy and make sure they turn out for her safe in the knowledge that black turnout is famously low.

In South Carolina, in spite of Clinton's "fairy tale" and "Jesse Jackson won here" comments, the vote was split about 60/40. Yesterday it was 90/10. That's not because the negros are all backing their brother over the jive turkey bitch. It's because the Clintons are vile little pieces of excrement whose entire plan for taking over the reigns of power merely for their own egos hinge on destroying and polarising the country.

Polls show that equal numbers on both sides will be "extremely" or "very" dissatisfied if their candidate doesn't get the nomination, and the numbers are also about even for those who threaten not to vote at all.

Carry on, though...facts have never mattered for the Clintons, why should they matter for their supporters?
 
You go on and on about how Clinton will drive out all the African American voters yet conveniently fail to mention the effect an Obama nomination will have on the Latino voters... :rolleyes:

:smirk:

Show me a single example - just a single one - of an Obama operative being overtly racist or prejudiced towards hispanics.

I can show you at least a half-dozen major incidents with the Clintons and blacks.

You might want to reserve the smirk smileys for when you're not making an utter and complete fool of yourself.
 
Polls show that equal numbers on both sides will be "extremely" or "very" dissatisfied if their candidate doesn't get the nomination, and the numbers are also about even for those who threaten not to vote at all.

That's exactly what I was getting at. :rolleyes:

Red Dreams seem to think that Hillary getting the nomination will drive out a lot of black voters, yet if Obama gets the nomination, latinos and old women are likely to vote for him.
 
Show me a single example - just a single one - of an Obama operative being overtly racist or prejudiced towards hispanics.

I can show you at least a half-dozen major incidents with the Clintons and blacks.

You might want to reserve the smirk smileys for when you're not making an utter and complete fool of yourself.

That does not matter, the fact as you pointed out yourself latinos and blacks often don't see face to face. The point is, an Obama nomination will push a lot of latino voters away.
 
That does not matter, the fact as you pointed out yourself latinos and blacks often don't see face to face. The point is, an Obama nomination will push a lot of latino voters away.

It matters hugely when one actually enters the ballot box come November. If Obama works hard and really goes after winning over the hispanic vote, he's got a chance. White old ladies he can give up on.

But if Clinton's the nominee she's got real problems with blacks no matter what she does - even if she appointed a black VP and promised an all-black cabinet. Would you vote for someone whose election strategy was to say horrid things about you?

The antipathy is very strong now, but it is more likely to be overcome by Obama, although he will have to work his arse off to do it.

The racism strategy actually worked for Bill Clinton in 1992 because a lot of those older conservative bigoted Democrats were still alive. I love my grandmothers, grandfathers, and great aunts and uncles, but they were all conservative Democrats. They weren't bigoted, but they sided with Clinton because of some of his crap.

The 'Sista' Soulja' incident is famous in US politics - Clinton went after a musician basically because she was black and destroying black culture or somesuch crap. It was all to show white conservatives that he wasn't somehow "pandering" to the black vote and win back "Reagan Democrats" who had defected from the party after Carter.

My conservative Democrat relatives are now all gone, God bless them all, and the new brand of Democrat thinks the Clintons are dirt for playing this game. But they've got no other strategy, so they're reusing their playbook from 20 years ago.

Latinos, on the other hand, are more likely to be able to think over whether they should vote for McCain or Obama without thinking that the Democratic candidate is bigotted towards them.

With the nomination of a pro-amnesty for illegal aliens moderate for president on the Republican side (the first one of my lifetime) and the Clinton's antics involving race, the Republican Party has a chance to eat severely into the minority vote which has been solidly Democratic.

Largely because of Lyndon Johnson in 1964, blacks have voted Democratic in huge numbers. In 2000 the split was 91% to 9%. That's a staggering number seen nowhere else in American politics, even from "very liberal" voters in the Northeast in the days of Franklin Roosevelt.

The Republican Party was the party of the biggest black support prior to Eisenhower's utter apathy towards the plight of blacks in the segregated South and the deteriorating inner cities (while whites fled to the suburbs). The shift from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s was seismic.

If Clinton gets the nomination and McCain does as promised and takes the high road while being extremely moderate and supporting the expansion of several social programs that he has been looking to reform and improve, then there is a real chance of the Republicans slowly breaking the stranglehold that Democrats have on the black vote.

Even a 70/30 split (as is the traditional number for hispanics, mainly due to the Cuban population supporting Republicans because of their perceived toughness towards Castro) would guarantee the Republicans the White House for the forseeable future, similar to the near-lock they had on the office in the post-Reconstruction era of the 1880s-1920s.

The current Moderate Republicans really want to do more for blacks than to Democrats, but Democrats are better at lying to blacks than Republicans are at telling the truth.
 
Right, nobody is against Obama, everybody loves him... :rolleyes:

You might as well produce a show called Everybody loves Barack...

When African Americans vote for Obama, they are anti-Hillary, when Latinos and older women vote for Hillary, they have nothing against Obama and will happily vote for him come November.

Now you're suggesting the superdelegates should vote in line with the pledged delegates (excluding MI & FL) so that Obama wins the nominations, and then they should seat those same delegates (who were previous excluded and have their views ignored by superdelegates) at the convention so as not to piss people off in 2 of the bigger states?

Excellent plan... you should consider a career as a spokesman for the Chinese communist party...

Cal..you really are a thick feck...

jason has addressed your arguments re Latinos...
regarding blacks...if you overturn a decision that was arrived at based on rules that have been agreed on by ALL parties.....they will want fecking revenge.... there are polls out there that say Obama supporters may actually vote for McCain...rather than stay home....

on MI and FL...ffs google the rules by which those states were not included...
MI and FL blew this themselves...no one else to blame....
Obama only needs to wait out the primaries....yes...they dont need to even seat the delegates....but of course they will...and sorry Cal....the superdegates Wont count for Hillary....

btw this mail in voting that is being floated by the Hillary camp...wont pass muster...it is illegal in FL... :smirk: go google it...
 
The legality of the Florida mail-in is shaky at the very very best. The practicality of one in Michigan is equally shaky.

Technically it appears that a private re-vote is illegal (as a Floridian attorney who has looked at the issue I certainly think it is), but there might be an argument that it isn't actually a primary but is a private vote.

If it was just a private vote of invited members (who happen to be all of the Democrats registered in the state), then it would seem that they might be able to nominate "representatives" (as opposed to formal "delegates", because delegates must be selected via the state's formal election procedures) to the Democratic National Convention. However, if the courts consider it to be a primary-in-disguise that might disenfranchise anyone (like those who registered as Democrats late in the day, who send in their faux-ballots "late" or some such scenario), then they very well may either prohibit it from happening or (more likely) enjoin it until such time as the issue is litigated. That would be long after the August convention even if it was litigated on a fast-track basis.

There are huge legal problems with a re-vote in Florida. I don't think the campaigns truly realise it, and I know Howard Dean doesn't. He barely manages to remember to wipe after taking a shit, so I wouldn't trust him to figure anything out at all. He's the idiot who made this mess specifically because he wanted to show the country how tough he was.

In Michigan there is a better chance of a mail-in or a re-vote passing legal muster (a "firehouse primary" where you go to a private polling place designated and paid for by the party and informally vote is the more likely option), but there is a staggeringly massive practical problem. Michigan has no party affiliation in their registrations. So they would end up allowing both Republicans and Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary with no way of separating them out. This wasn't an issue in the previous primary because the Republican nomination was still in question.

Some Democrats (mainly pro-Hillary ones who want desperately to find some way to count the old vote) are claiming this all was some Republican conspiracy to disenfranchise Democrats.

The problems with that being that 1) Florida Democrats introduced the bill moving the primary into the state legislature; 2) both the Republican governor of Florida and the Democratic governor of Michigan have been side-by-side in attacking the DNC on this issue; and 3) the Republican governor of Florida is actually in favour of counting the original Hillary victory rather than spending taxpayer's money on a new vote.

The old "vast right wing conspiracy" trick of the Clinton's isn't going to work here.

Whether a re-vote will work remains to be seen. Obama's people think a mail-in vote in either state is wildly open to fraud (the party wouldn't even have access to the state's voter signature records to verify the votes), while Democrats in Florida absolutely oppose any sort of a re-vote.

The best solution is to just send the delegates to the convention at a 50/50 basis. No matter what happens the nomination will be decided by party bosses at the convention, so it isn't going to tip the race anyway.
 
The best solution is to just send the delegates to the convention at a 50/50 basis. No matter what happens the nomination will be decided by party bosses at the convention, so it isn't going to tip the race anyway.

thats what I think will happen jason....

btw excellent analysis re the black vote and the history re the parties...the Democratic Party has taken them too much for granted and personally I think it would be better for blacks and for both parties if both parties actually vie for their votes...finally their lot May improve...

a comment about Obama and McCain...I do think they will bring the country back to the center...Obama cannot administer from the left and McCain wont do so from the right.
 
I think the thing I find the most odd is the elongated public brawling within each party before they then unite to fight the other party. It seems that the campaigns themselves, often dominated by cult of personality, take precedence over sober policy formation as a whole, with policy formed subject by subject in isolation based on the voting preferences of the electorate of the next primary. I guess I also find it odd that so much power is given to one individual (I know that this is overly simplistic but it is true comparatively). I am much more comfortable with the role of President being more like the Irish model I suppose.

I am also not a fan of federation of states type government. I'm not sure how you would get around it in the US given the size and population of the place but here in Oz is seems ludicrous that we have 5 state and 2 territory governments as well as a federal government. Do 20 million people really need 7 different sets of road rules, education systems and health systems not to mention the waste of 8 sets of politicians?

And I'd can preference voting tommorow.
 
The best solution is to just send the delegates to the convention at a 50/50 basis. No matter what happens the nomination will be decided by party bosses at the convention, so it isn't going to tip the race anyway.

Right, so under every scenario, Hillary would win more delegates in those 2 states but you 2 think they should be 50/50... a real comeback from the "democratic" process you've been harping on about...

If the nomination is given to Obama by small margin, you not only have driven away the hispanics who don't like Obama, the old women who won't vote for Obama, now you've succeeded in driving FL (one of the vital states in a general election) to the McCain column.... great idea.
 
Right, so under every scenario, Hillary would win more delegates in those 2 states but you 2 think they should be 50/50... a real comeback from the "democratic" process you've been harping on about...

If the nomination is given to Obama by small margin, you not only have driven away the hispanics who don't like Obama, the old women who won't vote for Obama, now you've succeeded in driving FL (one of the vital states in a general election) to the McCain column.... great idea.

You might have noticed that there is no viable legal method for a recount that has been proposed to date.

You also might have noticed that you're making a massive assumption about the electorate of those two states as of right now.

Michigan has a gigantic black population who didn't really turn out in the beauty contest. Do you think they're not going to come out in a real primary after all of her race baiting?

The whole point is that there is no democratic way to count these delegates absent the original primary. That isn't an option as of right now, so they either don't count, or they count for nothing.

You are not a winner. Please try again.
 
I am also not a fan of federation of states type government. I'm not sure how you would get around it in the US given the size and population of the place but here in Oz is seems ludicrous that we have 5 state and 2 territory governments as well as a federal government. Do 20 million people really need 7 different sets of road rules, education systems and health systems not to mention the waste of 8 sets of politicians?

And I'd can preference voting tommorow.

We are a federation, though. Australia was a single political entity prior to gaining independence. The US wasn't. As it is our current system represents a significant increase in federal powers over our original system under the Articles Of Confederation.
 
We are a federation, though. Australia was a single political entity prior to gaining independence. The US wasn't. As it is our current system represents a significant increase in federal powers over our original system under the Articles Of Confederation.

Australia has an odd political history.

The 6 states of Australia (as there were then) were independent colonies of Britain. By the mid 1800s most of the states had failry independent governments in place with Britain only really looking after big stuff like defense, even if they had a huge influenece within the various governments. The increasing push for independene of some sort eventually saw the Federation of Australia in 1901 but we weren't declared an independent country until 1031 (ish) with further reduction of Britain's power here coming with the Australia Act in 1986 (again I think).
 
You also might have noticed that you're making a massive assumption about the electorate of those two states as of right now.

Now I'm the one making massive assumptions?

Is it really beyond your grasp that, should Hillary lose this nomination race by a small margin (as things stand now), the margin which would be turned by FL's significant number of delegates in a normal year. The Dems in FL might be severely pissed off with the party? Just like all those black voters who you've concluded will be turned away by Hillary?
 
A little more... Hillary has won every big state so far (except his home state) and she's won all the "battle ground" states in a general election.

What makes you think Obama will fare better against McCain? Also his stated position has already alienated all the Cuban Americans in FL and we all know how vital FL will be come Nov...
 
It matters hugely when one actually enters the ballot box come November. If Obama works hard and really goes after winning over the hispanic vote, he's got a chance. White old ladies he can give up on.

But if Clinton's the nominee she's got real problems with blacks no matter what she does - even if she appointed a black VP and promised an all-black cabinet. Would you vote for someone whose election strategy was to say horrid things about you?

The antipathy is very strong now, but it is more likely to be overcome by Obama, although he will have to work his arse off to do it.

The racism strategy actually worked for Bill Clinton in 1992 because a lot of those older conservative bigoted Democrats were still alive. I love my grandmothers, grandfathers, and great aunts and uncles, but they were all conservative Democrats. They weren't bigoted, but they sided with Clinton because of some of his crap.

The 'Sista' Soulja' incident is famous in US politics - Clinton went after a musician basically because she was black and destroying black culture or somesuch crap. It was all to show white conservatives that he wasn't somehow "pandering" to the black vote and win back "Reagan Democrats" who had defected from the party after Carter.

My conservative Democrat relatives are now all gone, God bless them all, and the new brand of Democrat thinks the Clintons are dirt for playing this game. But they've got no other strategy, so they're reusing their playbook from 20 years ago.

Latinos, on the other hand, are more likely to be able to think over whether they should vote for McCain or Obama without thinking that the Democratic candidate is bigotted towards them.

With the nomination of a pro-amnesty for illegal aliens moderate for president on the Republican side (the first one of my lifetime) and the Clinton's antics involving race, the Republican Party has a chance to eat severely into the minority vote which has been solidly Democratic.

Largely because of Lyndon Johnson in 1964, blacks have voted Democratic in huge numbers. In 2000 the split was 91% to 9%. That's a staggering number seen nowhere else in American politics, even from "very liberal" voters in the Northeast in the days of Franklin Roosevelt.

The Republican Party was the party of the biggest black support prior to Eisenhower's utter apathy towards the plight of blacks in the segregated South and the deteriorating inner cities (while whites fled to the suburbs). The shift from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s was seismic.

If Clinton gets the nomination and McCain does as promised and takes the high road while being extremely moderate and supporting the expansion of several social programs that he has been looking to reform and improve, then there is a real chance of the Republicans slowly breaking the stranglehold that Democrats have on the black vote.

Even a 70/30 split (as is the traditional number for hispanics, mainly due to the Cuban population supporting Republicans because of their perceived toughness towards Castro) would guarantee the Republicans the White House for the forseeable future, similar to the near-lock they had on the office in the post-Reconstruction era of the 1880s-1920s.

The current Moderate Republicans really want to do more for blacks than to Democrats, but Democrats are better at lying to blacks than Republicans are at telling the truth.

I agree with most of your post but Pres. Bush is not an immigrant hardliner and had high ratings from Texas Hispanics from his time as governor, so he might have been the first Republican nominee to stake that claim. Of course, in his election, it wasn't as big a deal as it was this go around.
 
How Clinton wins If Democrats Lose

One of the easiest traps to fall into in writing philosophy papers is the strawman fallacy where you take someone's position you disagree with and attack a weaker version of it instead of the strongest possible version as required by what logicians call the principle of charity. I often warn students, if it seems like a really smart person is saying something really stupid, there's probably something there you are missing.And so it is, I think, with the Clinton campaign's scorched earth, kitchen sink approach.

In his op/ed in the Huffington Post, Senator and former Presidential front runner Gary Hart puts it this way,

It will come as a surprise to many people that there are rules in politics. Most of those rules are unwritten and are based on common understandings, acceptable practices, and the best interest of the political party a candidate seeks to lead. One of those rules is this: Do not provide ammunition to the opposition party that can be used to destroy your party's nominee. This is a hyper-truth where the presidential contest is concerned.

By saying that only she and John McCain are qualified to lead the country, particularly in times of crisis, Hillary Clinton has broken that rule, severely damaged the Democratic candidate who may well be the party's nominee, and, perhaps most ominously, revealed the unlimited lengths to which she will go to achieve power. She has essentially said that the Democratic party deserves to lose unless it nominates her.

As a veteran of red telephone ads and "where's the beef" cleverness, I am keenly aware that sharp elbows get thrown by those trailing in the fourth quarter (and sometimes even earlier). "Politics ain't beanbag," is the old slogan. But that does not mean that it must also be rule-or-ruin, me-first-and-only-me, my way or the highway. That is not politics. That is raw, unrestrained ambition for power that cannot accept the will of the voters.

Others say that it is "raw, unrestrained ambition" coupled with a lack of foresight, no campaign planning beyond Super Tuesday. "She will stop at nothing to be President," the line goes.

But this makes no sense. Senator Clinton is an incredibly smart person. She knows that by capturing a third of the states and nearly half of the delegates, as she would have by running a vigorous campaign that did not poison the well she could have played hardball behind the scenes and guaranteed herself the second slot. The "dream ticket" scenario was so much in the air and there was so much love all the way round that it would have been simple to grow it. If the ticket lost, all blame goes to the top and then she is the all but guaranteed nominee in four years, or the ticket wins and she is a shoo-in in eight. If the real goal was merely ambition to be President Hillary, it could have been easily done.

Yet, she chose not to do this, instead she chose to run a kamikaze campaign intentionally designed to harm the party as a whole. She is too smart not to know what she is doing. She knows full well she is handing ammo to McCain, that instead of causing there to be questions about the opposition's greatest strength, that she is bolstering it. Why then would she do it? What does Clinton stand to gain if the Democrats lose? Why would a smart person in her place prefer it? Chalking it up to flubs and fumbles from lack of planning is a strawman.

Step one is to realize that the President is not a person, it is a team. We are voting merely for team captain. All those people in her campaign are going to be part of the Presidential collective and as a result not only achieve great power for a time, but become THE ESTABLISHMENT thereafter.

There has been no Democratic President since Bill Clinton, what does this mean? In a two party system, it means that the Clintocrats -- whether the Democrats are in the majority or not -- are the go to folks for the Democratic side of things. When CNN, MSNBC, or even FoxNews need to put up a Democrat, who do they get? James Carville or Paul Begala -- Clinton's people. The three top political tv jobs are the Sunday news programs. The first of the boomers to get one of those positions? George Stephanopolous, Clinton's press person. Lawrence Summers? President of Harvard. And these are just the high profile ones. Behind the scene power brokers and consultants? High paid K Street lobbyists? These are people who learned how to come into incredible wealth and make unbelievable careers with the Democrats out of power. They don't care if the Democrats lose because as long as they remain the establishment, they win. They know how to parlay Democratic losses into their hyperbolic gains, they've been doing it for twelve years.

What does threaten them? A new Democratic administration. As soon as there is a Democratic President not named Clinton, they become old news. A new Establishment is established. A new team becomes the cool crowd and they look to news, political, and lobbying interests like has-beens thinking they are cool for still wearing Joe Jackson style narrow ties and Flock of Seagulls haircuts.

the President is not a person, the President is a team and an Obama win is the worst possible outcome for that team. A Clinton Presidency -- which they expected to the point of developing a sense of entitlement -- would perpetuate their power for at least another twelve years. A Clinton nomination and loss to McCain would guarantee their power for at least eight if McCain was re-elected, twelve if Hillary could get renominated and win a re-match. But it would end next January if some young upstart upset the apple cart.

This is not about legacy. It is not about personal ambition. This is an entire group of people who have been the Heathers in DC for a generation suddenly facing the possibility of getting left behind and losing everything they have had -- regardless of whether Democrats have any power. The Clintocrats know what the threat is and they know that the only scenario in which they lose is should the Democrats win without them. So, drag the party down? Not really a problem to them.

from: http://philosophersplayground.blogspot.com/2008/03/how-clinton-wins-if-democrats-lose.html
 
Hell hath no fury

Infuriated by Barack Obama's ascent, Geraldine Ferraro, erstwhile feminist icon, has transformed herself into Archie Bunker in heels. First she claimed that Obama owes his electoral success to being black, as if Hillary Clinton were some unlucky victim of affirmative action, in danger of losing a job she deserves to an unqualified token. As the uproar over her comments grew, she dug in further, claiming that she herself is the injured party: "Racism works in two different directions," she said. "I really think they're attacking me because I'm white. How's that?"

How's that? Well, that's the kind of thing Rush Limbaugh and other self-appointed spokesmen for the beleaguered white male like to say. To hear a putative progressive, the first and only American woman ever nominated for vice-president, complain about the unfair advantages black men enjoy in American life is, to say the least, disappointing. (Maybe it shouldn't be - the Politico informs us that she said similar things about Jesse Jackson in the 1980s, though her comments had since been largely forgotten.) Yesterday, having thoroughly disgraced herself, she quit her post on Clinton's finance committee, though she remained blithely self-righteous about the entire affair, never offering even a hint of an apology.

Some have suggested the whole thing was part of a Clinton scheme to ratchet up racial tensions in advance of the Pennsylvania primary. That's possible, but there's a simpler explanation. Several otherwise admirable, even heroic women seem to identify with Clinton so profoundly that they interpret rejection of her as a personal rebuke. Stung, they accuse Obama supporters of flighty illogic, but there's a powerful, extra-rational emotional current in their arguments, a flailing in the face of an imagined betrayal. In their anger, they're lashing out in all kinds of counterproductive ways, doing far more damage to feminism than a Clinton loss ever could.

In January, the venerable Gloria Steinem made a more sober version of Ferarro's argument in the New York Times, arguing (though she claims not to have been) that gender trumps race in the victim sweepstakes, and that if young women are voting for Obama over Clinton, it could be because of false consciousness. "What worries me is that some women, perhaps especially younger ones, hope to deny or escape the sexual caste system; thus Iowa women over 50 and 60, who disproportionately supported Senator Clinton, proved once again that women are the one group that grows more radical with age," she wrote. (Just what is so radical about automatically backing a candidate whose primary qualification is her husband, and whose surrogates have attacked Obama for consorting with "left-wing" intellectuals, remains unsaid. Clinton is a woman - what else do you need to know?)

A few days after Steinem's op-ed, there was Marcia Pappas, president of the New York chapter of the National Organisation for Women, putting out a press release accusing Obama and John Edwards of a "psychological gang bang", for, um, criticising Clinton during a debate. Then, last month Robin Morgan, the feminist writer who edited the seminal anthology Sisterhood Is Powerful, unleashed a hysterical screed accusing female Obama supporters of being, essentially, blinkered bimbos: "Goodbye to some young women eager to win male approval by showing they're not feminists (at least not the kind who actually threaten the status quo), who can't identify with a woman candidate because she is unafraid of eeueweeeu yucky power, who fear their boyfriends might look at them funny if they say something good about her."

Linda Hirshman, author of the bracing feminist manifesto Get to Work, was slightly more decorous in a Washington Post column about pro-Obama women, but every bit as condescending. Like other Hillary hard-liners, she starts with the assumption that Clinton obviously and indisputably deserves the votes of right-thinking females, so only some kind of psychological flaw, moral failure or logical fallacy can explain why so many smart, accomplished women aren't getting in line.

Yes, she allows, "maybe Obama is the best candidate, and these highly educated women, with their greater political savvy, have recognised his value." But then she spends the rest of the column pondering other, apparently more likely answers. Maybe, she suggests, pro-Obama voters are elitists who can't relate to their less fortunate, Clinton-voting sisters. "Or," she writes, "it could just be that women with more education (and more money) relate on a subconscious level to the young and handsome Barack and Michelle Obama, with their white-porticoed mansion in one of the cooler Chicago neighbourhoods and her Jimmy Choo shoes." Perhaps women are just cowed by Obama's cultish supporters. Writes Hirshman: "It's well established social science that women on the whole are much more averse to political conflict than men are, so it's fair to speculate that avoiding that gantlet may be one more reason women are tilting toward Obama."

Get that? Like the pseudo-populist demagogues of the right, Hirshman presumes a virtuous authenticity in the political sympathies of the less educated, and something vaguely perverse in the choices of the learned. This is, of course, the same tactic the Republicans have used to systematically devalue knowledge and expertise over the last eight ungodly years.

In the end, such rhetoric is likely to do less damage to the Obama campaign - he's winning regardless - than to feminism. The fact is, the majority of young Democratic women are voting for Obama. Maligning and disparaging them is no way to recruit them into a movement. If feminism equalled supporting Hillary Clinton, I'm not the only one who wouldn't want anything to do with it.

Of course, it doesn't. The fact is, some of the most incisive feminist writers and effective feminist activists - people like Katha Pollitt, Frances Kissling and Eve Ensler, among many others - are backing Obama. The late Molly Ivins - a fiercely progressive, genuinely populist Texan in her 60s - spelled out her opposition to Clinton in January of 2006, in a column bluntly titled "I will not support Hillary Clinton for president". "Enough. Enough triangulation, calculation and equivocation. Enough clever straddling, enough not offending anyone," she wrote. "This is not a Dick Morris election. Sen. Clinton is apparently incapable of taking a clear stand on the war in Iraq, and that alone is enough to disqualify her. Her failure to speak out on Terri Schiavo, not to mention that gross pandering on flag-burning, are just contemptible little dodges."

Ivins was clearly angry at Clinton, but she didn't attack Clinton voters. Few of Obama's feminist supporters have. The rage is concentrated on the other side. Watching Hillary struggle, some of her most outspoken feminist backers seem to be recalling every time they were passed over for some upstart man, every slight and humiliation visited on aging women in America. And so it's become all about them.

Leslie Bennets, the Vanity Fair journalist, recently mocked those who wish Clinton would drop out of the race. "Why doesn't she just get out of the way?" she wrote in the Los Angeles Times. "The media have sorted it all out so neatly: He is young, glamorous, charismatic and funny; he represents the future. She is older, strident, earnest and humourless; she is the past. He inspires; she hectors. Ugh!" She continued, elaborating on the indignities older women in America face. "America requires that females be (or at least appear) young and sexually desirable," she wrote. "Once they've passed the age of facile objectification and commodification, they're supposed to disappear. How dare they not cooperate with our national insistence that older women become invisible?"

This is a ridiculous argument, but it has a grain of truth at the centre that makes it ring emotionally true. Yes, aging women in the US are treated with unbridled contempt. But this contempt has very, very little to do with calls for Clinton not to tear the Democratic party apart, given that she's extremely unlikely to win a majority of pledged delegates or the popular vote. If the roles were reversed, if Obama were behind by every metric, Clinton would have been coroneted by now, and the cry for her opponent to get out and quit being a spoiler would be deafening. Gender injustice is a gross, epidemic problem, resulting in more human rights violations worldwide than any other iniquity. But gender injustice does not explain what's going on here. To insist that it does is crude projection.

The irony is that, for the overwhelming majority of women, voting against Clinton was never about repudiating second-wave feminism. But the more leaders of the movement insist on conflating their noble struggle for social justice with the fate of an uninspiring and nepotistic candidate, the less relevant it will be. Many progressives, male and female alike, see Clinton as cynical and narcissistic, pandering to interest-group sectarianism even as she compromises on important principals. It would be a hideous shame if they came to see feminism the same way.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/michelle_goldberg/2008/03/hell_hath_no_fury.html
 
Now I'm the one making massive assumptions?

Is it really beyond your grasp that, should Hillary lose this nomination race by a small margin (as things stand now), the margin which would be turned by FL's significant number of delegates in a normal year. The Dems in FL might be severely pissed off with the party? Just like all those black voters who you've concluded will be turned away by Hillary?

Umm, your argument is that if Hillary agreed to disenfranchise Florida's voters they would turn out for her if she won the nomination, but that if Obama made the same agreement then they wouldn't turn out for him?

Tiny little problem there, Cal.
 
A little more... Hillary has won every big state so far (except his home state) and she's won all the "battle ground" states in a general election.

What makes you think Obama will fare better against McCain? Also his stated position has already alienated all the Cuban Americans in FL and we all know how vital FL will be come Nov...

So we decide the election based on winning of big states only?

Isn't the proportional representation system in the Democratic party designed to do exactly the opposite?

Your argument about battleground states is equally staggeringly flawed. Clinton has unbelievable negative approval ratings especially outside of the Democratic Party.

The independent/moderate Republicans who have delivered the split states to Bush are therefore much less likely to change their mind about her than about Obama. You're looking at hardcore Democrats splitting narrowly towards Clinton and extrapolating both their General Election behaviour and the General Election behaviour of Independents and Republicans as well.

The idea that she would somehow have Florida in the bag where Obama would not is just odd. McCain has broad-based appeal here as a moderate Republican and if there is any battleground state he could walk it just might be Florida - especially because both Democrats tried to disenfranchise Florida voters.

The Cuban Americans your argument appears to hinge on mainly vote moderate Republican. Is Hillary going to suddenly reverse that trend with her broad-based appeal compared to him?

In future you might want to use logic and fact to make your arguments, Cal.

P.S. Missouri.
 
btw just saw a McCain camp spokesman commenting on Obama's pastor's tirade...he said the debate should be about issues...not the people who endorse or support you....

I expected no less from McCain...

but Hillary who must be using Karl Rove as her advisor is all over the place with talking about anything but issues...
 
Umm, your argument is that if Hillary agreed to disenfranchise Florida's voters they would turn out for her if she won the nomination, but that if Obama made the same agreement then they wouldn't turn out for him?

Tiny little problem there, Cal.

Funny that Hillary's approval rating is much higher than Obama's in FL, might be something to do with the Obama campaign taking your view and trying to mute the millions who voted in Florida?
 
So we decide the election based on winning of big states only?

Isn't the proportional representation system in the Democratic party designed to do exactly the opposite?

Your argument about battleground states is equally staggeringly flawed. Clinton has unbelievable negative approval ratings especially outside of the Democratic Party.

The independent/moderate Republicans who have delivered the split states to Bush are therefore much less likely to change their mind about her than about Obama. You're looking at hardcore Democrats splitting narrowly towards Clinton and extrapolating both their General Election behaviour and the General Election behaviour of Independents and Republicans as well.

The idea that she would somehow have Florida in the bag where Obama would not is just odd. McCain has broad-based appeal here as a moderate Republican and if there is any battleground state he could walk it just might be Florida - especially because both Democrats tried to disenfranchise Florida voters.

The Cuban Americans your argument appears to hinge on mainly vote moderate Republican. Is Hillary going to suddenly reverse that trend with her broad-based appeal compared to him?

In future you might want to use logic and fact to make your arguments, Cal.

P.S. Missouri.

Let's face it, basically you and red dreams think that Hillary cannot win in November because blacks hate her.

At the same time, I think you'd find Obama probably cannot win in November because older democrates (especially women) and hispanics will probably stay home.

Just hand the reigns to McCain and try again in 2012...
 
No room for error

Along those lines, Mrs Clinton's path to the nomination depends on accomplishing three things.


First, Mrs Clinton must win the popular vote so that she can present her majority as a reason for super-delegates to get behind her

Second, Mrs Clinton must also lessen the gap between her number of pledged delegates and Mr Obama's. Mr Obama already has one more caucus victory this week: Wyoming, which he won by a large margin on Saturday. He is also favoured in the upcoming contests in Mississippi and North Carolina. Mrs Clinton must win decisively in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana and Puerto Rico. Florida and Michigan, two states which have been disqualified from the process for breaking with party rules, also hang in the balance

Finally, Mrs Clinton must prove resoundingly that she is the more electable of the two candidates in a general election and would be a better president. She must combat Mr Obama's claim to the mantle of change and at the same time emphasise her credentials to prove that she is best able to beat John McCain
Super-delegates do not have to vote until the end of August, at the Democratic Convention in Denver.

Six months is plenty of time to build an unbeatable argument for super-delegate support - but there is little room for error and almost no room for losses.

Molly Levinson is a political analyst and former CBS News Political Director

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is from a larger article on the BBC website which indicates a reluctance among the super delegates to vote against the popular vote.

Is this about right then?If so what are the polls like in those remaining must win states for Clinton?When do they vote?

I don't think any one of the candidates for President can claim to be in the box seat.As financial meltdown or just the suspicion that it might be around the corner is a killer for the nominee from the party which will be held accountable for the last eight years.The Clinton years will look very comfortable in comparison and the fear of recession turning into depression will trump any animosity toward the campaign tactics used during a knock down drag out democratic fight to the finish.

Looking at it from overseas I find it fascinating ,but I am a bit weird that way.
 
No room for error

Along those lines, Mrs Clinton's path to the nomination depends on accomplishing three things.


First, Mrs Clinton must win the popular vote so that she can present her majority as a reason for super-delegates to get behind her

Second, Mrs Clinton must also lessen the gap between her number of pledged delegates and Mr Obama's. Mr Obama already has one more caucus victory this week: Wyoming, which he won by a large margin on Saturday. He is also favoured in the upcoming contests in Mississippi and North Carolina. Mrs Clinton must win decisively in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana and Puerto Rico. Florida and Michigan, two states which have been disqualified from the process for breaking with party rules, also hang in the balance

Finally, Mrs Clinton must prove resoundingly that she is the more electable of the two candidates in a general election and would be a better president. She must combat Mr Obama's claim to the mantle of change and at the same time emphasise her credentials to prove that she is best able to beat John McCain
Super-delegates do not have to vote until the end of August, at the Democratic Convention in Denver.

Six months is plenty of time to build an unbeatable argument for super-delegate support - but there is little room for error and almost no room for losses.

Molly Levinson is a political analyst and former CBS News Political Director

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is from a larger article on the BBC website which indicates a reluctance among the super delegates to vote against the popular vote.

Is this about right then?If so what are the polls like in those remaining must win states for Clinton?When do they vote?

I don't think any one of the candidates for President can claim to be in the box seat.As financial meltdown or just the suspicion that it might be around the corner is a killer for the nominee from the party which will be held accountable for the last eight years.The Clinton years will look very comfortable in comparison and the fear of recession turning into depression will trump any animosity toward the campaign tactics used during a knock down drag out democratic fight to the finish.

Looking at it from overseas I find it fascinating ,but I am a bit weird that way.

I think that sums it up quite nicely, the next big contest is in Penn late in April.

But of course Red Dreams will tell you the super delegates have to vote in line of the pledged delegates and not the popular vote, we'll see...
 
No room for error

Along those lines, Mrs Clinton's path to the nomination depends on accomplishing three things.


First, Mrs Clinton must win the popular vote so that she can present her majority as a reason for super-delegates to get behind her

Second, Mrs Clinton must also lessen the gap between her number of pledged delegates and Mr Obama's. Mr Obama already has one more caucus victory this week: Wyoming, which he won by a large margin on Saturday. He is also favoured in the upcoming contests in Mississippi and North Carolina. Mrs Clinton must win decisively in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana and Puerto Rico. Florida and Michigan, two states which have been disqualified from the process for breaking with party rules, also hang in the balance

Finally, Mrs Clinton must prove resoundingly that she is the more electable of the two candidates in a general election and would be a better president. She must combat Mr Obama's claim to the mantle of change and at the same time emphasise her credentials to prove that she is best able to beat John McCain
Super-delegates do not have to vote until the end of August, at the Democratic Convention in Denver.

Six months is plenty of time to build an unbeatable argument for super-delegate support - but there is little room for error and almost no room for losses.

Molly Levinson is a political analyst and former CBS News Political Director

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is from a larger article on the BBC website which indicates a reluctance among the super delegates to vote against the popular vote.

Is this about right then?If so what are the polls like in those remaining must win states for Clinton?When do they vote?

I don't think any one of the candidates for President can claim to be in the box seat.As financial meltdown or just the suspicion that it might be around the corner is a killer for the nominee from the party which will be held accountable for the last eight years.The Clinton years will look very comfortable in comparison and the fear of recession turning into depression will trump any animosity toward the campaign tactics used during a knock down drag out democratic fight to the finish.

Looking at it from overseas I find it fascinating ,but I am a bit weird that way.

We haven't been in a recession for the last 8 years. If you choose to frame things that way, then the Clinton terms could be blamed for 9/11 and the following conflicts. It is an overly simplistic view of things. Of course, the respective party hardliners love making those pitches to their sheep, so you might have a point.
 
I think that sums it up quite nicely, the next big contest is in Penn late in April.

But of course Red Dreams will tell you the super delegates have to vote in line of the pledged delegates and not the popular vote, we'll see...

Cal.

Thanks.What do the polls say the state of play is in Pennsylvania.
 
We haven't been in a recession for the last 8 years. If you choose to frame things that way, then the Clinton terms could be blamed for 9/11 and the following conflicts. It is an overly simplistic view of things. Of course, the respective party hardliners love making those pitches to their sheep, so you might have a point.

I just remember the "its the economy stupid" comments getting Clinton's ball rolling.The economic data we get about the US on the news over here makes it look like a pretty grim run up to an election.