Inconsistency is such a problem for us. Weirdly we started out with a run of 10 wins and 2 draws from our first 12 games under Ole. Since then we've had a few slightly longer unbeaten runs.
2019-2020 - 14 games unbeaten, 9 wins, 2.21 points per game
2020-2021 - 13 games unbeaten, 10 wins, 2.54 points per game
2020-2021 - 14 games unbeaten, 8 wins, 2.14 points per game
The two unbeaten runs from last season were only separated by one game and to be fair, they made up the bulk of the season. If you stitch those two runs together you get a run of 18 wins, 8 draws, 1 defeat from 28 games, which is our best longer run of form under Ole. Even that isnt quite title winning form, but its getting there (equivalent of about 84 points over a full season)
The problem is how bad our dips in form go. In the last few seasons we've had these bad runs.
2018-2019 - 2 wins and 5 defeats in 9 games - 19 points dropped
2019-2020 - 2 wins and 4 defeats in 9 games - 18 points dropped
2019-2020 - 3 wins and 4 defeats in 7 games - 12 points dropped
2020-2021 - 2 wins and 3 defeats in 6 games - 11 points dropped
2020-2021 - 1 win and 2 defeats in 4 games - 8 points dropped
We seem to alternate between spells of good form that isn't quite title winning form but is decent, and short sharp spells where we suddenly lose a bucketful of points in a short space of time.
I think that's at risk of implying a general pattern from what is much more likely streaks that occurred for very different reasons and under very different circumstances.
Three general points:
1. It's not automatically inconsistency when results vary. Inconsistency is when you get different results from the same factors and circumstances, not when you get different results from different factors and/or circumstances. Hence, there is a need to look at each streak and ask if there are convincing specific reasons to account for each of them.
2. Even the assumption that there may be a general pattern for OGS reign as a whole is problematic due to the diversity in circumstances within the period covered. The team we had in the spring of 2019 was very different to what we had in the fall of 2019, which is again very different to the one we've had since Bruno arrived.
3. Every team has a certain of amount of inconsistency, and go through good and bad spells. So, United's record in that regard can't be viewed against a zero expectation, but needs to be contextualised against that of other teams. In short - how much variation in results that can't be accounted for by specific circumstances does there need to be before it's reasonable to call a team "inconsistent"?
Specifically on the streaks/periods:
2018/19 reflects the managerial change bounce and the effectiveness of the high-pressing, counterattacking style OGS used from the beginning - and then its collapse late in the season, in the face of key injuries and a general lack of conditioning in the squad (a classic Mourinho area of low priority). I don't think it makes sense to see that as inconsistency - it was a drop in performance that happened for clear, identifiable, specific, plausible reasons.
19/20 was essentially one long weak spell until Bruno's arrival, followed by a long unbeaten streak once he had. Reflecting the basic inadequacy and thinness of the squad, further exposed by some key injuries. If we hadn't signed Bruno in the January window that would no doubt have continued in much the same way for the rest of that season, but luckily that turned out to be a truly transformative signing, as will happen sometimes. That's not inconsistency, that's a defective team making a major adjustment that worked. Again, both the underperformance and the improvement can be attributed to clear and specific reasons, and don't reflect a team getting different results with the same tools and under the same circumstances.
It's not altogether easy to make out your 20/21 periods since you don't describe them and also don't clarify if they cover just PL games or also others. I suppose the first one is the 6 first games of the PL season, up to and including the loss to Arsenal? And the second is the last four games of the season?
In the PL our record was this: LWLWDLWWWWDWWDWWWDWLDWDDWDDWWWWWDWLLDW
In between those two spans, which total 10 games, we played 28 games, with just one loss as you allude to. Even if there was no significant specific factors involved in the weak spells at the beginning and the end, that would not be a huge amount of inconsistency. But there is. The virtual lack of a preseason clearly was a factor in the first three games especially. And the two losses at the end obviously owed much to the insane fixture crunch resulting from the moved Liverpool game which caused us to have to play 4 games in 8 days. The loss against Leicester, where we essentially fielded a Carabao Cup lineup, are clearly mainly attributable to that factor. Arguably, it also played a fairly large role in the other loss against Liverpool, which involved several players who had been featuring in parts or all of the Leicester game two days earlier.
So in my view there are again perfectly plausible specific factors to account for why the team performed worse results-wise in these periods compared to the rest of the season.
If I was going to pick on something last season, it'd rather be the DDWDD 5 games starting with the 3-3 against Everton and through the 0-0 against Palace, in (largely) February. We were missing Pogba during that stretch, but that hardly seems sufficient to account for such a dip in form.
All things considered, I would say that (in the PL at least) we're looking at a team that went through a pretty messy and difficult transitional period between Ole's takeover and Bruno's arrival, but who since that time and through last season has actually generally delivered results with an uncommonly high degree of consistency. As long as they have not faced exceptional and specific adverse circumstances.
Which actually makes me
more rather than less worried by our current troubles, because our performances so far this season
have dipped and they shouldn't have. Maybe you can suspect that there are challenges of adjusting to several new players at once, and especially Ronaldo, but that shouldn't be insurmountable - and certainly not of long duration.
